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washparkhorn

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Everything posted by washparkhorn

  1. The “Trump Trade” (High Inflation if Trump wins) continues, with the 5 and 10 up 1.3 and .9% today and signaling an economic downturn if the Cult reelects their orange fascist.
  2. The bond market is pricing in a GOP sweep. The “Trump trade” expects high inflation if Trump wins. Trump tariffs are inflationary.
  3. The Trump lumpen proletariat should be sharpening their pitchforks. Instead they think of their orange god as a savior. https://itep.org/a-distributional-analysis-of-donald-trumps-tax-plan-2024/
  4. Centrists punching left is not helpful to the cause. Harris has the centrists and never-trumpers locked up. While there is no reason to alienate the Dick Cheney for Kamala voters, there is also no reason to treat Dick Cheney as an angel. I welcome his support. I laud his daughter for standing up to Trump. But no intelligent Republican can possibly defend a vote for Trump in 2024, after the Supreme Court removed any guardrails on his power as President As this election winds down, getting out the vote is crucial. The Stalinists weren’t voting for Kamala anyway, but the progressives (who are neither commie nor Stalinist) need to turn out. I urge centrists to punch right and draw attention to the lack of guardrails if Trump is elected—rather than minimizing the concerns of progressives.
  5. Here in the Clemson area, we have a lot of trees down on power lines. Friends in Highlands, NC came down the mountain today, which was a relief. The loss of cell towers in the storm is a huge problem. News can’t get in or out. No bodies in trees, but it sounds horrible up there in the southern Appalachians. Asheville is a gem of a small city and looks devastated.
  6. Just a reminder—‘Heads’ banks win; ‘Tails’ banks win.
  7. Let me translate her Trumpaneze to English for all you commie literates out there:
  8. 3 month annualized PCE at 0.9% is a stalling signal. 50 bps cut in September looking more likely. 100 bps cut by the end of the year not unlikely.
  9. A 50 rate cut in September would be prudent given the labor market weakening.
  10. “Bad news is good news”—RIP, August 23, 2024, Jackson Hole, Wyoming
  11. Everything is transitory if you give it enough time. -Chairman Powell
  12. Panic with the unwinding of the Yen/Dollar carry trade. Fucking hedge funds.
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