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washparkhorn

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Everything posted by washparkhorn

  1. RBA “pivots”with smaller .25 rate increase. Australia/RBA can be a bellwether for Fed action. Bad News = Good News: JOLTS job openings down one million. Jobs report Is Friday Equity markets pricing in pivot already (danger Will Robinson). Oil up with OPEC cutting output and SPR ending releases at end of the month. Additional sanctions on Russian oil creates an inflationary spiral. tldr: premature pivot prognostication
  2. Saddam lit the oilfields of Kuwait on fire in a scorched-earth retreat. Finland has a strong historic claim to Vyborg (the Soviet Union captured the city in 1944). Vyborg is the starting point for the original Nord Stream pipeline, making it an attractive target for capture by the West. It would not surprise me if Russia decided to remove any incentive to recapture Vyborg and utilize Nord Stream 1.
  3. The IMF is not pleased with GB. The IMF usually saves this type of admonishment for developing economies. “Given elevated inflation pressures in many countries, including UK, we do not recommend large untargeted fiscal packages at this juncture, as it is important fiscal policy does not work at cross purposes to monetary policy.”
  4. J Pow has promised more pain. TINA has become TARA for equities.
  5. Good data (consumer confidence and new home sales) = Fed will see the need to increase pain.
  6. The Fed Put (originally the Greenspan Put) is apolitical. It was welfare for the fabulously wealthy. “Follow the Fed” was the mantra of the little guy cashing in on the welfare program designed for the wealthy.
  7. Wharton Business School professor Jeremy Siegel (Siegel’s paradox) calls his shot: “. . .One source of inflation that worries some economists and policymakers now is the threat from rising wages, which can create a so-called wage-price spiral, where higher prices push up wages, which then reinforce still higher prices. However, Siegel said he doesn't think wages are really driving inflation this time, saying that recent worker raises appear to be "catch-up" rather than impetus. "It seems to me wrong for Powell to say we're going to crush wage increases, we're going to crush the worker, when that is not the cause of the inflation. The cause of the inflation was excessive monetary accommodation for the last two years," Siegel said.” https://apple.news/AkTa4wEPHQj2Gsm_esHoDew
  8. Supply disruptions are the new normal. Covid eliminated years of neoliberal efficiency gains. Lean = fragile. Fragile = inefficient when it breaks. Inefficient = more resources, including labor. J Powell promises pain. It appears he plans to deliver. But if true to form, the Fed will loosen afterwards so the big boys can swoop in with cheap money and gobble up distressed firms and assets for pennies on the dollar. Same as it ever was.
  9. Yen stronger against USD with unilateral BOJ FX intervention (the guess is 1% of BOJ reserves selling USD and buying Yen). Japan (chronic disinflation) is a different beast than the US.
  10. Key section of the Eleventh Cir. panel opinion (in addition to the standing argument that Trump had no property right to the documents). No doubt the threat of prosecution can weigh heavily on the mind of someone under investigation. But without diminishing the seriousness of that burden, "if the mere threat of prosecution were allowed to constitute irreparable harm . . . every potential defendant could point to the same harm and invoke the equitable powers of the district court." United States v. Search of Law Office, Residence, and Storage Unit Alan Brown, 341 F.3d 404, 415 (5th Cir. 2003) (quotation omitted). If this concern were sufficient to constitute irreparable harm, courts' "exercise of [their] equitable jurisdiction would not be extraordinary, but instead quite ordinary." Id. Cannon should be embarrassed.
  11. Global supply chain pressure remains elevated, but easing according to Fed Stats: https://www.newyorkfed.org/research/policy/gscpi#/overview
  12. I have probably been the fiercest critic of the promoters’ case for crypto here. But I see no need to kick investors when they are down. Pain is pain. If the promoters start calling crypto a hedge against de-flation, my venom for the bullshit they spew will return.
  13. Missing the third leg of the stagflation triad: high unemployment. Yield curve is signaling recession in 2023. FedEx data concurs. Fed prefers recession to soaring inflation.
  14. All the Fed can see is data indicating this is a good time to raise rates in the fight against inflation. Low unemployment rate and sticky CPI bloat. Add in stronger USD, oil down, and inverted yield curve. Situation Normal: All Fucked Up.
  15. Recession was always anticipated when J Pow turned into a hawk. The question became whether the US would have a soft oe hard landing. Data now suggests a hard landing. FedEx and 2 year are harvingers of a hard landing - globally.
  16. Patagonia milfs are my sweet spot. And F the haters. Nice move by Yves. He walks the walk.
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