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washparkhorn

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Everything posted by washparkhorn

  1. Rate hikes are a blunt tool with spill over effects - and disinflationary. Cathie Wood and Elon Musk are warning of deflation with the rate hikes (Wood’s argument on the collapse of used car values is interesting). The inverted 2/30 yield curve signals a recession in 6-9 months. From a monetary perspective, deflation is more difficult to control than inflation. The Fed knows this.
  2. Liberty Institute whiner in the Business School (no surprise there). His whining about the “Liberty” Institute. https://www.aier.org/article/how-ut-austin-administrators-destroyed-an-intellectual-diversity-initiative/ so fragile . . .
  3. JPM David Kelly says the market is overreacting - all is well.
  4. If 75 is already baked in, 100 may be in play. Global hard landing should be priced in. J Pow promised pain. Watch your cornholes.
  5. The scary news today was the layoffs at Goldman Sachs. The little discarded vampire squid will spread their contagion whenever they land. Only thing worse than a GS cast-off is a discharged McKinsey sociopath. just an opinion, of course. No offense intended. Tomorrow is the big day for CPI data. Good luck out there.
  6. USD down/markets up All eyes on CPI data tomorrow. Reading the tea leaves on where the Fed will stop hikes and QT. Some think J Pow is a chicken hawk. J Pow is caught in a cosplay costume.
  7. Agree. @TwiceHorn is exposing the gaps that should be strengthened and providing efficient avenues for attaining a conviction. My problem with the Judge’s order was her use of her equitable powers in a criminal investigation requested by a party with unclean hands. I do not believe the court had equitable jurisdiction here. First, principles of equity generally forbid use of equitable powers in criminal proceedings. The Younger decision is a limiting instruction on when equity can be used, not a broad loophole for a court Second, those requesting equitable relief must have clean hands. The former President’s are unclean (and tiny). Intermingling these classified documents with personal effects bars the use of the court’s equitable power as that act is illegal. Third, the former President must possess a property interest in the Presidential documents seized to have standing to request equitable relief. If there is substantial doubt on whether he has a property right, the court should not use its equitable powers. There is certainly substantial doubt whether the former President has any property right in the seized classified materials. The commingling of classified material with personal items is one of the crimes under investigation. The seizure of those personal items was allowed under the search warrant and a element of the commingling crime. tldr: the court did not have jurisdiction to use its equitable powers to fashion a remedy in this proceeding. Law, not equity, runs the show in criminal investigations.
  8. https://ddosecrets.com/wiki/Oath_Keepers Note: Torrent download from the original hacktivists (i.e., the download is provided by hackers; caveat emptor.)
  9. Both are True. A strong USD hurts domestic firms who export goods and services (the goods and services priced in USD can become prohibitively expensive for foreign importers. Likewise, foreign goods sold in the US become relatively cheaper for US consumers, which hurts US producers and US labor (a deflationary headwind stoked by the Fed, intentionally). In the end, the Fed is playing a dangerous game to fight inflation. The cure may be worse than the disease.
  10. “Shrinking” The USD is strengthening because monetary tools have been deployed to make a USD more valuable. The Fed risks recession to fight the inflation beast. The Doves became Hawks. Knock-on effects were always expected with this change.
  11. Ummmm, not really . . . Monetary base is shrinking, which causes the USD to rise. Add in the Fed’s austerity tools, and the USD grows stronger.
  12. The FBI is investigating the use of welfare funds to pay Farve for speeches he did not give and the construction of a USM volleyball complex where Farve’s daughter played. https://mississippitoday.org/2022/04/04/phil-bryant-brett-favre-welfare-scandal-payout/ Mississippi remains a shit stain of a state.
  13. Markets hoping for the predicted “Fed pause” after the next hike given the jobs numbers today. Next CPI report (Sep 13) looms large in that wager. I think a .75 hike is most likely as the Fed races for what they think is a neutral rate. The jobs number was mixed for Fed purposes.
  14. The subject is 2022 inflation, not 2020 monetary and fiscal stimulus. In the last quarter - Demand for goods slowed, but profits rose in a percentage greater than the go-go 90’s. Declining demand/spending in 2022. Inventories up in 2022 Profits: Again - 2022 - profits up, despite greater inventories, less spending and less demand. But keep fucking that chicken - by all means.
  15. Perhaps corporate profits are a key driver of inflation? Pre-tax: Post-tax: Capitalism requires competition on price to function efficiently. A “free market” does not equate to a “competitive market.”
  16. You’ve got to remember that these are just simple farmers. These are people of the land. The common clay of the new West. You know. . . morons.
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