Only way this matchup could be better for me is if it occurred one round later. Really excited to see these teams go at it. I regret that I haven't been able to watch either team as much as I would have liked this year, so take that into account with my below quick assessment:
Captain obvious: Wisconsin has a ton of height this year and their front leads the way. They also have what I'll call a sneaky good back end - not pulling the end of season awards, but a bunch of talent right below that All-conference level.
I see this as a 55 UW / 45 UT match. We've been saying all year that this UT team has flaws, but they also have high end ability / volatility that can easily push them past what might be a better team on paper. Franklin is NPOY good (and Madi may not be far behind her), but Madi has the ability to take over a set and carry a team in ways Franklin doesn't - or at least has not had to. I kind of want to see if Madi can OT Smrek. Asjia vs Booth should be a fun matchup.
My keys for a UT victory:
- Captain obvious again: you need Madi to have a big match. Captain less obvious: that doesn't necessarily mean a 20 kill outing. It may mean 1) drawing UW's defensive attention to open up opportunities for Asjia, Molly, Jenna 2) getting critical kills / sideouts from the back row 3) stepping up the back row serve receive / defense
- Ella is going to need to be on point to keep the Wisconsin blocks moving/guessing (I'm looking at you Asjia) and to put her hitters in position to maximize efficiency.
- To me, UW's TTA is analogous to Wenaas in that her performance in a 50/50 type matchup can tell you which way the tide will turn. Keep an eye on these two.
- UW's serve receive can be shaky at times. Akana/Halter/Barnes may be able to sneak a few points this way.
I think the folks upthread did a good job of explaining why NCAA WVB tends to be chalky. Two other considerations:
- Due to highly lucrative pro FB and MBB careers, there's a stronger incentive for higher end talent to move around to maximize exposure, creating more parity.
- Specifically for volleyball, the scoring system tempers the amount of upsets/volatility. In basketball, if a lower seed gets really hot and puts up a 25-5 run or something, you need to overcome all of that delta the rest of the game. In volleyball, if a team has an awful set and loses 25-8, aside from the mental impact, there's no difference in that and losing the set 25-23. Just run it back the next set.