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TXSooner518

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Posts posted by TXSooner518

  1. One of my favorite days of the year is when the new State Fair food is announced, since it signals the imminent approach of football season, and begins the anticipation for my very favorite day of the year.

    http://www.guidelive.com/state-fair/2018/07/31/state-fair-texas-2018-winner-big-tex-choice-semifinalists-fried-ranch-corn-dog-ale

    Deep Fried Skillet Potato Melt in a Boat sounds awesome - buttery, grilled skillet potatoes; diced, griddle breakfast sausage patties; packed around a mini Babybel cheese loaf. Then it’s fried. “ In just a few minutes you have a wonderful crunch that finishes in the smooth melt of cheese! The deep-fried skillet potato melts are served up in the potato skins they came from. The perfectly fried crispy potato skins are topped with melted cheddar and crispy bacon bites. A sour cream chipotle sauce is drizzled across the top and served on the side for dipping.

    Can't wait for details on the rest!

  2. 5 hours ago, Jhawk said:

    Appreciate all of the advice.  I typically start with a $200 stack and only see $5/$10 tables here.  I've got no problem starting with $400.  I'm going to play around with the app a little and hone in on what it means (and probably how fast) to lose my stack.  I'll probably be doing full odds from now on.

    To be clear, you don't have to do full odds if it is overly burdensome to your roll.  But if you aren't doing full odds, you absolutely should be doing the minimum bet on the pass line bet.  

    So if you have a "roll budget" of $40 and on a $10 min table, you are so much better off betting $10 on the line with $30 behind than betting $20 on the line with $20 behind.

  3. 1 hour ago, Lurch said:

     


    Yes it’s less likely, but it’s getting paid out at a commiserate rate.

    If I told you we could flip coins 6 times for $1 to win $2/each

    Or

    Roll dice 6 times for $1 to win $6/each

    Would you think one is a more profitable game than the other?

     

     

    1 hour ago, Lurch said:

    Another way to appreciate that (and the beauty of the 3-4-5x standard)

     

    You put 10 on pass and roll 4 to set point. You put $30 max odds. Then hit point. You get $10 for your pass line and $60 (2:1) for odds. $70.

     

    You put 10 on pass and roll 5 to set point. You put $40 max odds. Then hit point. You get $10 for your pass line and $60 (3:2) for odds. $70.

     

    You put 10 on pass and roll 6 to set point. You put $50 max odds. Then hit point. You get $10 for your pass line and $60 (6:5) for odds. $70.

     

    Yes 4 is harder to hit, but you’re paying less to win same total payout as you’d get with a 6.

     

     

     

    These right here.

  4. Yep, no way to add up -EV bets to make them +EV.  

    And also lol at people betting $25 on the pass line and not playing odds or playing 1x odds.  All of your pass line budget, if you're betting it, should be going to maximizing your odds bet size.

    It's like seeing someone play a $1 slot without playing max coins, so they aren't jackpot eligible, instead of wagering the same coin-in at $.25 and being eligible.

  5. 19 hours ago, AUS-97HORN said:

    I start off the very first hand in the CO, I have AdKd.   100/200 levels, 15k chips to start.  There is a 1 time 10k chips rebuy. Table has 8 players, and every player limps to me. I make it 1200 to play, everyone gets out except the 3rd limper  (calling him the kid from now on) who calls the 1200 .   

    Flop is 10-8-8 all black    Kid is brand new to the league, hes the nephew of one of the regulars.  He might play poker online, but he is obviously not used to live poker at all. He checks, I bet out 1100 on a continuation bet, he calls.  Turn is a red 10.  kid checks, I bet 1500, he check raises to 3000.  This seems odd, kid could have a boat here, but its an odd time to make a raise if hes got one.  So I call.  River is a Q,   Kid bets out  1100.   Fuck.... its an obvious call me bet.  But there is a decent chance kid has an ace in his hand and we chop. and there is already 12k in the damn pot, so I have to call.... and I was sort of right, kid had an ace in his hand.... along with another ace.... holy fuck batman.  gets AA first fucking hand and is the THIRD limper?   1st tough call- WRONG

    Big hand, big pot, small hand, small pot. Check either the flop or the turn if not both. You put in 4 bets postflop with AKdd on T-8-8-T-Q no diamonds.  This is a total spew my friend.

    This time I have JJ, blinds were 200/400.  I make it 1k, kid calls  flop comes out 6-7-8  all spades (I dont have one),  kid bets 4k.... and I fold.   fucknut shows 5x-3s.  sigh.  looked it up, i was 45% to win vs kid winning 50% of the time and a tie happening 5% of the time.  So I guess it was the right fold. 

    Evaluate hands against a range of hands, not a specific hand. Reasonable to fold here, as we are sometimes totally hosed, sometimes flipping.

    I win a few more small hands getting the stack up to 40k when Im up against the kid again, I think the blinds were 500/1k at this point. i am SB,  Kid is CO, he makes it 4k to play (typically he was overbetting the pre-flop raises), hes also got almost 150k in chips at this point, the whole tourney only had 590k chips total, kid has been hitting flush after flush taking people down.  i look down at AK, and decide to raise, I make it 9k.  folds to the kid who shoves.  I call.... and hes got AQ.   K on flop  killed any drama, so I double up..   3rd tough call- RIGHT

    Make it bigger pre.  This sizing is fine if we are button, but we are OOP, so we should be sizing our raises bigger.

    its just so frustrating knowing you made the right real time call and get poker fucked for it.

    tenor.gif?itemid=5292336

  6. On 7/27/2018 at 2:22 PM, CBT said:

    First hand, nh, wp. Nothing you can do there.

    Second hand, rebuy if possible like I mention above, otherwise, nh, wp. Nothing you can do there.

    Third hand. Raise pre or reraise to isolate after someone raises behind. Shove over flop bet, nothing no reason to not. Get them sklansky bucks. 

    These are all 100%.  Third hand you are allowing previous hands to make you play worse. God knows I get annoyed with poker, but you have to make sure your decisionmaking process isn't being clouded, and if it is, get up and take a walk.

     

    12 hours ago, goatsaag said:

    Why does his unwillingness to run it twice have any impact on calling or shoving here?

    And this. Your equity is exactly the same whether he runs it once or ten times. You need to play to maximize that equity. And you ran the risk of making a very bad fold on the turn, as we have odds to call if he shows us a queen at this point.

    GL!

  7. On 7/27/2018 at 10:54 AM, chitwood said:

    Played at Full House last night, 1/2 game, bought in for 200, have 165 in front of me after about 20 minutes.  I'm UTG +2 with AA.  UTG (covers me) opens to 10, UTG+1 (also covers me) raises to 25.  Both of these players seem very laggy in the time I've been there.  I 4 bet to 75 and they both call.  Flop comes AKx rainbow.  They both check and I shove for 95.  They both fold.  So I made 150 out of the hand, but felt like I left another 100 or so out there.  In all honesty I wasn't trying to take it down right there, but with a 225 pot that wasn't a bad result.  I really did expect one of them to call, and I thought checking that flop after a 4 bet PF would have been way too suspicious.  Thoughts?

    We basically go faceup when we 4bet for half of our stack. I like calling the 25 better, as we may then get the original LAG to 4bet light.  He's not 5betting light with 0 fold equity once we go 75.  I like 55 better than 75 if we are 4betting (due to our depth, if we are 300 deep, 75 is of course fine).  

    As played, sometimes they just don't have something to stack off with.  Checking will set off alarm bells as well.  

    On 7/27/2018 at 12:16 PM, Lurch said:

    I check flop and turn, feeling the odds of them getting something that cracks me are outweighed by the odds of them catching something weaker and betting a later street or simply bluffing.

    Ie, I stand to lose $95 ~10% (?) of the time, but I stand to gain +/-$95 ~25% (?) of the time. The rest I’m winning the pot anyway.

    Hell, if it checks through to the river you could put a $25 value bet out there and even force a KQ-KT to call.

    Problem with this is that the pot already largely outweighs what we can win. Let's look at the outcomes as a function of our stack after the hand. I'm ignoring the chances we get both villains in and win since it is extremely unlikely that right now neither villain would stack off, but if we check, they BOTH stack off.  I think that balances against the idea that sometimes a villain will stack off here without us checking, which IMO will happen more than us checking and inducing two stackoffs:

    1) We win the hand with no more money going in. Our stack is $310 (the $225 in the pot plus our remaining $85 - chit originally said he had $160, but then indicated he jammed $95 which means he had $170, not sure which is right but doesn't matter much.)

    2) One more villain gets his money in and we win.  Our stack is $395 (the $225 in the pot plus our remaining $85 gets doubled)

    3) We get our money in and lose.  Our stack is $0.

    So by checking, we need our stack after the hand to average more than $310.  If by checking we get a villain to stack off 60% of the time, and we lose the pot 10% of the time, our average stack is (.6 x 395 + .3 x 310 +.1 x 0) or 237 + 93 = 310.  Note here that this is exactly breakeven, and I think it is HUGELY optimistic that we induce a stackoff 60% of the time. Since it is exactly breakeven, I think it is going to be better to go with option 1, since there is the chance that we don't have more money to reload with, and there is the chance we play worse after getting our AA stacked off.

    I think the only way checking makes sense is if one of the villains is just an idiotic monkey who is just gonna spam the bet button if we check 100% of the time.  And if we are against that villain, we DEFINITELY should have just flatted the 25 in the first lace, and know we are never folding.

    On 7/28/2018 at 9:18 PM, Lurch said:

     


    Then you’d still have 10 outs, so 20% to win.

    Paying $95 to win a pot of $415 (23%, so very close) or possibly $510 (19%) if other guy gets sucked in w perceived pot odds.

    Ie, not a bad place to find yourself in, still.

     

    You said you are checking turn also, we don't have a redraw if QJ or JT get there on the river.

  8. Thx, he's leaning that way.  Does the ticket still get reported/or is accessible to the insurance company?  Curious minds would like to know.


    The dismissal gets sent to DPS to be part of his driving record so that the next court knows if he's had one in previous 12 months. It may not be used for any other purpose including by an insurance company.
  9. He's entitled to do DSC (defensive driving) as long as he has a valid DL that isn't a CDL, insurance, and hasn't taken it in the last 12 months. It'll be right at $110 plus the cost of the course. Almost certainly the best play to do that. He has to plead guilty or no contest and request the course in writing to be entitled to it.

  10. 20 minutes ago, Brisketexan said:


    Krispy Krunchy Cajun chicken (found in gas stations only) is the best gas station chicken, and actually rivals Popeyes. Disagree with me, and I will fight you.

    They have one of these at Choctaw Casino in Durant.  Good shit, and the honey biscuits are on fuckin point.

  11. 1 hour ago, CBT said:

    Umm, Popeyes is fucking fantastic, and if you disagree something is wrong with you. 

    I will say that Popeye's has high variance, and has some truly wretchedly ghetto locations that are awful. But peak Popeye's is indeed fantastic.

    I also think Chili's is a place that gets underrated because everyone has to bash it relentlessly to show how amazingly cultured they are and above eating at Chili's. It's predictable and fine, which can be a much-needed thing when kids or olds or pickies are included in the mix. Perfectly good quick lunch or road food option.

    • Like 1
  12. 38 minutes ago, kopp0e said:

    Looking at that quote, did 2 seperate teams beat Kansas in 1 season from the MAC..? If so, that is astounding... 

    Central Michigan won in Lawrence 45-27 and KU lost at Ohio 42-30 in a game that was 42-24 until the last play of the game.  KU lost 11 games by double digits last year LOL.  Only one they didn't was a 38-16 win over SE Missouri, which went 3-8 in FCS.

  13. On 7/19/2018 at 8:27 AM, Spankytoes said:

    And Charlie lost to Kansas when we out athlete them in every position. And Herman lost to Maryland, at home, by double digits. 

    But Mack almost lost to KU had VY not converted 4th and 18. We went on to beat Michigan in the Rose Bowl and win the MNC the following year

    Verdict: Don't mean shit

    2004 Kansas <> 2016 Kansas.  2004 KU went 4-7 which is obviously bad, but only lost one game by double digits the entire year, won two conference games, and beat 4 FBS teams.  2016 KU lost 8 games by 15 or more points, and beat 1 FBS team.

  14. I saw it watching old reruns of The Big Game.  Interesting concept of a show.
    I'm headed to New Orleans tomorrow for work.  Anybody ever played at Harrah's?  What are the games like there?


    Generally very good especially on weekends and late at night. Tuesday night at 7 won't be that crazy but good games nonetheless. GL!
  15. 44 minutes ago, pearlandhorn said:

    Right on.  However, doesn't it change the equity you have once you do a run out (1 run out of 3 for instance)?

    Your overall equity for 3 runs is exactly equal to your overall equity for 1 run.  But yes, once the first run goes, your equity for subsequent runs will be affected by the cards that are now dead. I just meant that it's not an "advantage" to run it once or run it multiple times whether you are ahead, behind, etc., though lots of players think it is.

  16. 9 minutes ago, Buzzrock said:


    Can you explain “run it twice”? I’ve never heard of that.

     

    You run two boards from the point where the money goes in, and each "run" gets half the pot.  So say we get QQ vs AK all in preflop, they would run out two full boards, with each getting half.

    Here, the money went in on the flop, so they will run a turn and river, then another turn and river, with half the pot going to each.  PH made a boat on both runouts so he won the whole pot.

    Running it twice (or more) doesn't change your equity, but it reduces variance.

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