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TXSooner518

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Posts posted by TXSooner518

  1. Yeah it definitely has to be that they think OU is more likely to get to 12-1 than Texas is, because I agree that they would be in basically the same spot at 12-1. One thing OU could say in that position that Texas couldn't is "we beat every team we played this year", but Texas could say "we won 12 straight games and were unbeaten in 10 conference games."

    I agree with Massus Ossis's hierarchy.

     

  2. We are in position, so don't necessarily have to go as big as $300.  I would go $225-250.  The bigger we 4b, the more we are announcing that we won't fold if he 5b, but we want him to think he can make us fold.

    On this board if he goes bet-bet-jam, I think we prob have to fold river. We are announcing our range is strong to call twice, and he would be announcing he DGAF. I would think AQ and JJ his most likely hands at that point.

    The high hand promo is that every person at the table gets an entry into a $570 satellite????  So they give away $5700 basically?

  3. 6 minutes ago, po elvis said:

    I think because he was in the small blind his 3-bet range was probably pretty small. i don't like the preflop call with the Kings.

    I don't think it is terribly small (TWSS). Lurch was ISO'ing a limper from late position, and he ISOs limpers often (like he should). So Lurch's range was pretty wide, so SB can 3b fairly wide also. 

  4. 17 hours ago, Lurch said:

    Honestly, the complexity of this is a big part of why I folded. I can make good money with a lot less stress/analysis in other hands.

    That said, really a great hand to learn from so that next time I’m better prepared. I just need a pre-established approach.

    So, what is it?

    Rather than thinking “welp, it’s possible he has a J and I’m fucked” I should have continued with “but it’s also he has AQ, AT, A8, A4, TT, 99... so let’s see another street, planning to check call 2, 3, 5, 6, 7, J , shove K and check fold the rest”

     

    I think this hand wasn't necessarily that complex, but you let yourself get psyched out by who your opponent is. You wouldn't have folded to some random jabroni here, even though a random jabroni is much more likely to have a J than a very good, thinking, tourney-based player is. We have his range crushed, so we must continue. Check-calling keeps his range wide, while making him think he has fold equity, which he is likely to try to use.

    16 hours ago, Dropout said:

    Appreciate your insight Sooner. As a youngin barely getting into poker circa 2004 pretty sure I remember you final tabling PS tourneys here and there.

    Thanks!  Miss those PokerStars days!

    15 hours ago, Lurch said:

    WPT is here this weekend and one of my favorite Twitter follows, Jamie Kerstetter, is here playing a ladies cash game. Pretty cool to watch as I waited for a seat. They’re pretty damn aggro!

    Love me some Jamie Kerstetter. Played with her at Aria, she was great to have at the table. There are certainly hotter girls in poker, but if I could date any poker chick, it would be Jamie.

    11 hours ago, Lurch said:

    Sitting w $1350
     
    HJ limps and I make it $30 in CO w KsKc. SB makes it $90. I call. He and I have traded some big pots already and he could be 99+, AQ+ here. $190 pot.
     
    Qd Jh 8d. He makes it $125.
     
    I’m ahead of 99, TT, AQ, AK. I’m fucked to JJ, QQ, AA. I decide to test the waters, thinking I might get him to push w AQ or AKdd, so I raise to $325.
     
    He shoves and has me covered.
     
    Fuck?

     

    10 hours ago, Lurch said:

    Such a draw heavy flop, I pretty much have to raise, no?

    Why didn't we 4b pre? The fact that it is CO vs SB, and that we have dynamic, keeps our ranges wide and lets us get money in while we have way the best of it. Trapping while we are 250 BB deep is pretty perilous, since if we get that many blinds in postflop with one pair, we don't figure to be in good shape often.

    I disagree that we need to raise the flop, and agree that we should use our position and just call. What is the purpose of raising the flop? We don't have a big equity advantage on this flop. Against a reasonably standard 3b range, we have 63% on this flop. That's OK, but when we raise, he folds all the junk out, and proceeds with the top of his range, and we have one pair, and lots of money behind.

    We need roughly 35% equity to call the jam. I don't think he is jamming AQo here, unless he is just a crazy person. Would he be jamming as a bluff? Can he possibly think you are calling off 200+ bigs with less than top pair?

    I think his jam range is QQ, JJ, 88, T9s, QJs, AdKd, AdJd, AdTd.  We have 18% equity against that. Add AQ and we get to 42%, but I don't think he is just cramming 250 BB with AQ unless he has the Ad. If he is only jamming AQ with Ad, we have 32%. We just have to muck unless he is craaaazyyyy spewing here, and if we think he is this crazy and spewy, flatting KK is disastrous, we should 4b and let him spew.

  5. If he's betting 80% pot on the river no matter what he has, then shit yes, we can easily call river. We beat most of his range. You can't fold the top of your range to a thinking, aggressive player who knows you are capped at one pair. Those players print money because players turn their hands faceup and announce I CANNOT CALL OFF WITH WHAT I HAVE.

    We can call turn and evaluate river. I would be planning on calling most blanks. A, Q, 8, 7 would be the cards I like least. We can also lead river small and fold to a raise. Players are much more likely to bluff-bet when checked to than to bluff-raise when led into.

    Think about it this way:  say a 3 rivers, so the board is J84J3. He bets $500 into $510. Why?  What hands, if any, does he think we will fold to that bet?  Do we have any of those hands in our range?  What hands, if any, does he think will call that bet?  Do we have any of those hands in our range?

    I would honestly be more worried facing a river $180 bet than a river $500 bet based on that analysis.

  6. 46 minutes ago, Lurch said:

    Raising A4 while likely ahead of other aces, but at risk of losing that on future streets. Flatting A8 as we’re happy to keep opener betting for us with lesser risk of losing our lead. KJ is iffy. I could go either way on it, but am more inclined to just call.

    I generally like calling in his spot with monsters and backdoor draws, while raising with middling hands and one card draws.

     

    I think raising A4 with 3 yet to act behind, when the PFR bets into 4 players on J84 would be hugely ambitious.  I think the fact that there are 3 hands behind may make him more likely to raise a hand that he almost surely calls closing the action, like KJ.

  7. 1 minute ago, Lurch said:

     


    Probably raising w AJ, A4, J8, J4. Flatting KJ, 88, 44, TT, 99, KQ

    No way he flats QQ pre. In fact, I’d guess he raises 88+ pre, perhaps taking those out of his range here

     

    You did just post a hand where you flatted AA on the button in similar spot, no?  But I agree it's unlikely he has QQ. Why is he raising A4, but not A8 or KJ?  I think he never has J4, and A4 and J8 are pretty unlikely also.

  8. 1 minute ago, VolenteHawk said:

    I probably would not have checked KK, I probably would have kept betting it...depends a lot on my read of the player.  Once we check the turn and are no longer the aggressor and out of position, I hate everything about the hand.  So, puke fold and find another spot, even though I hate it.

    I'm actually fine checking AJ or 88 here and likely would unless I had a calling station read.

     

    I don't necessarily object to checking AJ/88 here, especially to trap against an aggro thinking player.  I would generally bet, because I want the money in, and betting does it easier than checking (just one of the difficulties of being OOP). 

    Our hand is still murdering his range on the turn, so check-folding is just too weak, especially when we have communicated to a thinking player that we never have a "strong" hand here. We have one of the very best hands we can have. The only better hands we can have are AA, 88, AJ, and KJs, and we are rarely checking 88, AJ, KJ. We could have 66, 77, 99, TT, QQ, AK, AQ as well in our "bet flop, check turn" range. 

    Also "finding a better spot" is really more of a tourney thing. Assuming we aren't playing above our bankroll, we should take every +$EV spot in a cash game, since we can just reload, whereas we cannot just reload in a tourney. So taking a meh +$EV spot in a cash game doesn't make us miss a huge +$EV spot later, but taking the meh spot in a tourney and busting means we never see the huge spot later.

  9. 3 minutes ago, Lurch said:

     


    He might (?) raise the flop occasionally, but otherwise yes. Usually would call flop and bet turn when checked to.

     

    And do we think he would generally raise or call with a J on the flop? Any chance he flats us pre with QQ?

  10. 5 minutes ago, Lurch said:

    I want three streets w AJ or 88 so I’m betting them the whole way.

    Had the turn not come A, J or 8 I’d probably bet $150 on turn and $300 on river if it too was clean.

    Had he checked through on turn, I would have bet $150 on a clean river

    Right, so when we check we are announcing "I WILL FOLD IF YOU BET" if we are giving up KK, especially to a single bet, since we are betting the turn with every single hand we will continue with. Keep in mind, this discussion is about this specific villain. There certainly are some players who we absolutely can and should check-fold KK here, but they are pretty rare.

    I would also consider an 8 a clean turn, I would rather see it than a 7 or Q, though he obviously will occasionally turn up with an 8.

    Would you take the same line you took with KK here with 99 or TT?  What do you expect this villain to do with 99 or TT here?

  11. 8 minutes ago, Lurch said:

     


    Check call here vs lead out frequency?

     

    I would lead out against sticky call station types, and check-call against bluffy, aggro, or thinking players. So definite check-call against this guy.

    For those who want to fold, are we ever checking with AJ or 88 here? If not, we are capping our range, and if we are folding one of the best hands in our range, we are just giving this guy free reign to buttfuck us. 

    What would you have done on a 5 turn?  Lead like $160?

  12. 29 minutes ago, VolenteHawk said:

    Puke fold.

     

    28 minutes ago, AUS-97HORN said:

    sounds like this guy knows your play as well. 

    So if its not normal for you to check a paired turn after leading the bets preflop & flop action, hes probably playing you being scared of the J. 

    However if you almost always check a paired turn, then I would say its a much higher chance that he has something other than a J here.  And 88 & 44 would both be possible since it was only $25 more to call to go set mining.   and obviously Jx would also be possible, especially suited on the button.

    calling the $115 isnt horrible, but the issue is, what do you do when the river throws up a blank and you check and he fires out a pot sized bet of $500 on the river?

    if you dont normally check the paired board, I would say you gave a tell by checking and he's exploiting it.   If you normally check in that spot, I would say he knows that and probably has something strong.

    either way, I almost always let it go unless you just know hes bluffing.

    I think the turn is a very clear call actually. He can be bluffing, and he can be betting worse for value. We can evaluate the river when we see what it is and what he does. For example, his most likely bluff hand is T9, so if a 7 or Q peels and he bombs it, we are doing much worse now against his range and we can comfortably fold. 

    The turn is the most obvious "scare card" in the deck, and tourney players exploit fold equity and pressure as a manner of course. If we are check-folding KK here, we are literally only continuing with AJ and 88? That's waaayyyy too weak.

  13. Wheeee! And I watched the JL video. I agree with his concept of 3b bluffing with the bottom of your call range and top of your fold range. For his hand he was defending BB against a small button raise so J2s is in that zone. It would be considerably different, say, being on the button facing a $25 open from MP.

    In that spot maybe our 3b bluff hands are things like Q8s, A4s, 76o, QTo. Depending on player tendencies and stack depths, both the opener and the blinds behind us.

  14. 1 minute ago, Lurch said:

     


    Watching them on the stream, I see the $5/10 crew floating a ton of flops, fwiw. They know each other VERY well, though, so they’re leveling each other a lot more than I would assume is their standard play at a random table.

     

    Out of position even?  Much different calling a headsup c-bet in position than check-calling OOP.  Also would be much different holding, say, AQ here, vs K6, as we actually might be good, and have reasonable chance at 6 outs when not.

  15. Just now, Lurch said:

     


    What do you like my raise at? $105?

     

    What's the effective stack?  Yeah, generally $90-110 there, unless we are extremely short. Look at it this way, if we decide to mix in A3s or 44 to our 3b range, are we ever going 75 with those hands in that spot?

  16. I think you narrowed him way too far pre. He isn't folding a single hand he made it 35 with to a raise to 75. Again, I hate that sizing, depending on stack depth. We are announcing "WE HAVE A BIG HAND IN CASE YOU HIT" without charging him for the privilege, and an A or K will come over 40% of the time. I don't like changing raise sizes based on our hand if we are playing players we will ever play again, but 75 there is much better with AA since obv no overcards can come.

    I also think you are giving him a bit too much credit. Raising K6 UTG1 is just going to be a losing play period. I haven't been able to watch the whole JL video, but he is 3betting against a button open, which is an entirely different dynamic. He is 3b'ing not because OMG J2, but because his opponent's range is wide and he can take the initiative away and put him to the test.

    Here, K6 guy's thinking was likely "ooh, straddle, more money in the pot, king is a good card, RAISEITUP", then can't fold to tiny raise.  Check-calling this flop with no pair no draw is again pretty dreadful unless he has some very very specific read on you to have JJ or QQ, because he can then take away the pot on a T, K, or A most likely (even still that is only going to turn about 1/4 of the time, and that is reliant on KNOWING you have JJ-QQ and not AK, AA, KK, etc.

    Once the turn comes, I think he plays fine. I agree that he can assume you don't have AA or KK there, though I would reasonably frequently check back AK or KQ there in your shoes. River bet is standard value bet for him, and reasonable.

  17.  

    8 minutes ago, Lurch said:

     

    Hadn’t played with him before. He was leading out in first dozen hands or so. I hadn’t seen him call down w junk yet. Looked like he was just being aggressive until someone pushed back. I just didn’t think SB or BB would join so I’d have plenty of opportunity to take advantage of him post flop. No reason to push him off pre

     

    And, I’m a middle aged white dude. A young black dude has me pegged at JJ+ before sitting down

    If we think SB is solid, he's also noticed the spewiness, and is going to want to come in with hands that can flop well. And we aren't trying to push him off pre, but we are too deep to try to just trap. I like your flat better in a tourney-type situation where we are 30-50 BB deep so we can comfortably stack off on the flop without regret. If we are stacking off with $350 behind and $60 in the pot, we are going to be beat a decent amount when all the money goes in, let alone if we are stacking off $800. 

    If anything, you could have raised smaller like you did in your QQ hand (I don't like that sizing there BTW). I still don't see very many players 6x'ing UTG and then folding to any kind of reasonable 3b.

    5 minutes ago, Lurch said:

     


    UTG+1 made it $35. SB, BB, UTG all folded to my raise. UTG+1 called w K6o

     

    Well that's still heinous by UTG1, but at least there was only one player being awful instead of the two I originally thought.

  18. OU had Mayfield go 27/36 for 545, 7TD, 0 INT, Mixon go for 380 yards and 5 TD, Westbrook go 9/202 with 2 TD, wins by 7 points ha. That was the game where everyone officially lost patience with M. Stoops, where the offense literally must play perfectly to win the game.

    76 first downs total hahahaha.

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