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TXSooner518

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Posts posted by TXSooner518

  1. 2 minutes ago, rickyspub said:

    My point isn't about any particular season, it is the aggregate. Texas's schedule is more likely over the long term to keep us out of the playoffs that it is to get us in. It may not because we lost to a middling P5 OOC early in the season, more likely it because we lost to a middling conference opponent due to the physical and mental toll of facing more legit teams over the course of a season than a team that plays an FCS and 2 G5s most years. The undefeated team is held in too much regard IMO, especially when the schedules can be so different. Sure there is a chance that we get in over someone else due to SOS, but I would imagine in most seasons we are more likely to get in base on having 'Texas' on the jersey than whom we played.

    Who did you beat out last year to get into the playoffs? I think Wisconsin was the only other 1 loss team that didn't make the playoffs and they were behind OU from the start and didn't pass you guys even after you loss. If you started the season where you did and had Wisconsin's schedule and finished with 1-loss, I bet you still get in because you have 'Oklahoma' on your jersey. In 2016, OSU was one of only 4 undefeated or 1-loss P5 teams, schedule didn't get them in. OSU in 2014 is about the only one where I remember SOS being mention, as Baylor's OOC was so bad, but even then the '13th game' was what the final criteria offered by the committee for bumping TCU for OSU.

    For one, last year OU beat out the B1G champion tOSU, whereas if OU hadn't played them, it would have been a beauty contest between two 12-1 conference champions.

    In 2016, Ohio State got in over B1G champ Penn State which had beaten tOSU, due largely to whipping OU's ass in Norman. Conversely, if OU had won that game, it allows them a huge chip to offset the Houston loss, and likely earns them a berth that year. If they had played Arkansas State instead, sure, they are 12-1, but with no big win, may have been on the outside looking in.

    Your point is valid about wear and tear, but I do also think that there is something to be said for what winning a game like that does for a team mentally and emotionally. I think it would have been MUCH tougher for Texas to rally from double digits down in the 4th Q against USC if they hadn't beaten a damn good Ohio State team in the Horseshoe at night and instead beat The Citadel 100-0.  

    The committee said "13th data point" and meant the fact that Ohio State beat a good Wisky team by 59 fucking points not "hey they played 13 games."  If either Baylor or TCU had won a big OOC game that year, things may have been different.

  2. 11 minutes ago, rickyspub said:

    You are taking my example too literally. (But if you want to play that, almost losing to Oklahoma State due to a missed extra point also isn't the look for a 'legit' playoff contender.) Sorry, but even playing Kansas puts more mileage on your players than an FCS or a bottom tier G5. Or replace Maryland with Iowa or any other middling team that turns out to be Top 20 quality and put it as the first game of the season for a younger team and it can easily turn into a loss. By the end of the season, that young team may have gelled and be playing the best ball of anyone, but an undefeated team who didn't play anyone OOC won't get passed even if they played a bunch of close games. You don't have to worry about an FCS team turning into a Top 20 FBS level team when you schedule them 5 years in advance. If Texas were undefeated this season, the committee would likely still have us behind Bama and Clemson, both of whom would have played an FCS team and at least one less P5.

    Bama schedule isn't shit because of how bad Louisville is. It is shit because they scheduled Arkansas State, Louisiana-Lafayette, and Citadel. You are playing the same bullshit game that the committee plays. Bama may be the best team, but there are also absolutely no repercussions for them consciously playing a shitty schedule. Sure, Kentucky would never get that benefit of the doubt nor would any other non-blue blood, but that still doesn't make it fair.

    Hey, no argument with the bold. My point was just that Texas didn't actually trap themselves this season by playing a good team OOC. They played a non-bowl eligible team who has beaten absolutely no one this season except Texas. If your argument is that Maryland COULD have been a Top 25 team, but Arkie State, Louisiana, and Citadel never will be, I can agree with that also.

    Certainly there are scheduling decisions that can be made that have benefits or drawbacks, and some of them are unknowable before the season. For example, ND is probably out at 11-1, despite scheduling Va Tech, Stanford, Florida State, and USC. They were unlucky that all 4 of them turned out to be down. On the flipside, they are getting benefits from the Michigan game, winning it before Michigan seemed to improve as the season went on. I would guess (and Sagarin Predictor agrees) that Michigan would be a solid favorite over ND if they were to rematch now.

    I think you also are ignoring the teams, like OU last year and tOSU in 2016, that got in directly because of a good OOC schedule.

    I don't think the Bama benefit of the doubt is solely blue-blood stuff. OU's OOC is marginal, and they could certainly miss the playoff as a 12-1 conference champion specifically because of it. The Bama BOD is that they are playing WAY beyond what everyone else is doing so far. If Bama loses a game, you might come in here and advocate that some other 1-loss team get in over Bama, but I guaran-damn-tee you that you wouldn't take any team straight up over Bama in an on-field wager. 

    I would say that Texas would probably have moved up to #2 by now if they were unbeaten, but hard to know for sure.

  3. 2 minutes ago, rickyspub said:

    16 is better than 4, but it does open up a lot of issues without specifics about who gets in and how, or a change in scheduling rules. Even now, I don't see any benefit for a strong SOS for OOC games. Bama gets a cakewalk of a non-con and no one bats an eye. Texas sets itself up for a trap game like Maryland rather than an FCS opponent and puts another game of real mileage on its players, while Bama gets to have 3 soft opponents with no repercussions from the committee. The system already sucks.

    If you take all conference champs then Bama gets rewarded with another cupcake, while Texas risks a lower seed, due to playing a more difficult schedule, and could end up facing a Top 10 team in the first round rather than a G5 patsy. If you could go to 16 and it is based on rankings, then OK, the results are a little less cut and dried, but you still have no scheduling integrity. If you got to 16 and only give the P5 autobids, you likely end up with a lawsuit from the G5, so it is probably committee-ranked or bust.

    16 would be more tenable if playing FCS teams were outlawed and a codified SOS component was added to the ranking criteria. Going back to a BCS-style formula isn't perfect, but the committee selection concept has proven corrupt.

    I disagree on strong SOS not being important. Bama's power ratings this year are historically good, so their SOS is less important. But Oklahoma got in last year specifically because they went to Columbus and beat Ohio State. And not trolling, but Maryland is not a "trap game" for a legit playoff contender. They were blown out at home by Temple, got held to 3 TOTAL points by Iowa and Sparty, two solid but not great teams, and lost to Indiana. Beyond Texas, Maryland's wins are over 2-8 Bowling Green, Minnesota, Rutgers, and Illinois. The three B1G teams they have beaten are a combined 4-17 in conference, with 2 of the 4 wins being Illinois beating Minnesota and Rutgers. Maryland is going to end up 5-7, which would have been 4-8 if Texas had done what it should have done week 1. 

    You should factor schedule into the seeding as well as how good the team is for sure. Bama's OOC was hot garbage, though they couldn't have known how bad Louisville can be, but their end-of-year overall schedule will be reasonably difficult. It's kind of silly IMO to say that it isn't fair that the consensus by far best team in the country gets a round 1 patsy while Texas would be punished for losing to a team that could verrrry charitably be described as mediocre. I mean, that's how it should work, right?  That's why the 1 seeds in the NCAA tourney get the free win with the 16 seeds (sorry UVA). 

  4. 12 hours ago, utee94 said:

    16 teams?  Gross.  No thanks.

    16 is no good unless it is a thing where all 11 conf champs get in plus 5 wild cards. That would give every team a path in, but not make it where ONLY conf champs get in, which would completely make nonconference games worthless. I would also prefer the first 2 rounds at home, which rewards the top teams, and also avoids the situation which would definitely happen with some of those Round of 8 games at neutral sites being played in front of 25k people. 

    I would strongly prefer 6, with top two getting byes, or 8, with all 5 P5 champs in plus 3 wild cards with some auto-qualifier for a G5 team for one of the WC spots as long as they meet certain criteria.

    But 16 teams with 8-4 middling P5s getting in really would make games completely worthless. I know everyone can come up with a game here or there that you can argue is meaningless, but for example right now, Mich-tOSU will be a win and have a great shot, lose and be dead game. In the 16 team model, they are both locked in, and playing for positioning.  It also would make the conf title games useless in most situations, and actually detrimental to the teams in them in most years. Say ISU wins out to get to 8-3. They are then in in the 16 team model, but could easily fall out by dropping the B12 title game to OU or West Va. 

    • Like 1
  5. On 11/13/2018 at 6:29 PM, Lurch said:

    Tldr

    Heh, yeah, sorry. Got stuck between if I was trying to do a trip report or a hand review/discussion post.  Will post a couple more interesting hands only for discussion.

    On 11/13/2018 at 9:54 PM, housious said:

    Sooner has a really good memory. I can barely remember what I ate for lunch.

    I do remember hands pretty well, and have a good memory in general. The post was dramatically aided by reviewing my own Twitter page though. It is majorly tilting when someone wants to talk about a hand and they are like "OK, so it is 800/1600, I raise to 2500" "Wait, how can you raise to 2500 at 8/16?" "hmm, maybe it was 6/12, so I open, or maybe someone else raised and I called? No, pretty sure I raised. Me and a couple guys see the flop, I have jacks" "What are your positions and stacks?" "Uhhh, not positive, just know that I think I raised, and there were either two or three other guys in there. So the flop comes like an 8 and two bricks....."

    14 hours ago, ztejas said:

    I just gave up and repped him

    @TXSooner518 super cool that you play at a high level though - are you professional or is it a side hustle?

    Heh, thanks. Nope, I'm a lawyer with a "real job."  Travel to play 6-8 times a year at tournament series, prefer tourneys to cash by a large margin.

    14 hours ago, AUS-97HORN said:

    really surprised you didnt attack him when he was saying not to raise him.   unless hes done that when hes strong in the past. 

    HH?

    On the JT hand, just a tough overall spot with the game playing so ridiculously big. I think you have to abandon speculative hands, because we just aren't deep enough. We are basically 22 BB deep, so we have to play a shortstack strat. I'd rather limp the JTo behind, but using your image to bluffraise is reasonable. I especially think if it had gone, say, 175-call in front of you, jamming would be great, as you have a reasonable hand if called, but with your image, it is going to get through soooo often.

    When we get 3b, I honestly think we have to either jam or fold. We are going to hate most flops, and we are putting in 1/3 of our stack pre, I dunno that the pot odds are good enough to call there. I would like flatting a bit better with JTs. Once we see the flop, yep, def a jam when checked to us. River T next time, PM Duck Dynasty guy for tips on that.

  6. 1 hour ago, Don Johnson said:

    So both sides signed a contract, and if they fire him you think he should not collect what's owed to him through the contract?  And if he doesn't just forego millions that university agreed to pay him he's not a good man?  Fuck that.

    Exactly this, WTF. Don't sign contracts that you think the other side would be an asshole to expect you to follow.

    • Like 1
  7. On 11/12/2018 at 1:13 PM, AUS-97HORN said:

    jesus, this may be one of the fastest final tables ever-  its only been 1 hour  heres the next update

    It played out a lot faster than I thought. We did have 3 quite short stacks at the start, and 2 of the 3 of them were among those busting early. But I thought with it going up to 45 minute levels, that it would go a bit slower, especially as people maybe tried to ladder up.

    23 hours ago, AUS-97HORN said:

    well it is a circuit event, I dont think Chops are allowed.

    You can chop, but the casino is going to pay out what's listed. Up to the players then to distribute the money. I wouldn't feel comfortable doing it for much money unless I was the one getting paid the big amount and then paying out to others. Multiple stories of tourneys where they agree, then the guy who signs for 1st and takes 1st place money just leaves.  Fuck that.

    23 hours ago, AUS-97HORN said:

    so I have no idea if this is a typo by Sooner, and he means trapped....  or if tarped is a previously-unknown-to-me poker phrase for losing but not getting felted?

    Chitwood had it. Meme meaning trapped. I raise QJ on button, he just flats AK from SB. 732 ck ck. K turn he ck calls my 45k bet. Blank river, he ck snaps my 100k bet. Oops.

    So some fun hands:  Played the main event on Saturday. For the first several hours, was pretty card dead, but picked a few spots and just kind of floated along.  So we are ten minutes before dinner break. Meanwhile OSU has just scored a TD to pull within 48-47 in Bedlam. We have 34k, playing 400/800/100.  

    Mediocre guy limps, Schuyler Thornton (good, very aggressive) goes 3k, we call button with 77, limper calls. 11k pot. Flop J97hh.  Limper leads 2k, Schuyler folds, I raise to 9k. Too many awful cards can come on the turn to just call, he had about 27k to start the hand, I'd like to get him to commit with a jack. If he calls flop, now he has 15k back, and pot is 30k, so a nice easy half pot jam. He calls.  Turn is Tx. He now jams. Pretty gross spot. Obv he can have a straight, but I can beat that with a board pair.  He can have something like JT or something like maybe QThh enough where I have to call and I do.  He actually has T7, which is a pretty sweet UTG limp/call, and an even sweeter flop bet/call. So all I need to do is fade one of the last two tens in the deck and take a very healthy stack to dinner.  River ten. 

    Unbelievable, especially considering that the last main event I played, I get 99 in on J97 vs AQ and lose, and now in the very next one, I lose 77 against T7 on the same damn J97 flop to running fucking tens.  So I take 7 big blinds to dinner, and was glad to have the 60 minute break. My fiancee probably didn't enjoy the dinner convo to the max though ha.

    2nd hand back from dinner, Schuyler opens, I jam AQ, and he is math-locked to call, and has the exact same T7dd that I just lost to. Even more unbelievably, I actually beat it!  Grind back to starting stack, then lose half TT to 33 who flopped a set.

    Jam 15.5 at 6/12/2 with TT and get 2 calls.  Feeling optimistic-ish when flop is 922 until one of them goes allin and the other calls. Somehow they have 88 and AQ and I fade the last two and am completely back in the game at almost 50k.

    Run cold again, end up jamming 50k at 1/2 with AhQs, get called by 66, flop 2 hearts, turn a 3rd, but can't find the 15 outer on the river.

    So I have the bounty the next day, and show up about 10 min late because I was on the phone helping a buddy with a landlord dispute. My very first hand at 25/50 (15k starting), it goes limp/limp, guy makes it 250, I go 800 with QQ he calls. Flop J74ss. He leads out 1500 here. My thoughts are similar to the 77 hand before, that I want to get more money in here, with lots of bad turns either for my hand or my action. It's unlikely he has KK or AA, and should never have two pair. He certainly can have JJ, 77, 44, but I think he is leading jacks and flush draws way more than leading sets. I raise to 4k and he quickly calls. Turn 5. He rips it, I shrug call, he has AJ and we hold. He had lost a few chips, so I get his bounty and we are rolling.

    Interesting hand at 75/150/25 - I raise AQ from EP to 400 off a 38k stack, two loose guys call, and then a pretty competent guy 3b button to 1100. Obv if I call, the other two guys are calling. I also think he knows these guys are fishy and wants to take the initiative with position and doesn't have to be nutted to do that. I decide to 4b to 3300, folds to him, he calls. Flop is AT5. This is an interesting flop to play out of position. I like the flop obviously, but if all the money goes in (he started the hand with 20-25k), I am very likely beat. I check, he bets 2200, I call. Turn 6, chk chk. River T.  I lead small, 2500. It's going to be very hard for him to raise me with AK, and very hard for him to fold JJ, QQ, or KK. But if I check, he checks the pairs back, and likely bets bigger than that with AK. As played, he snaps and had AJ.

    Next fun hand comes where a pretty bad guy limps for 200 UTG, and I limp button with 42dd. Both blinds were pretty bad too, and there is value in raising to iso the bad player, but I would prefer in this spot to just call. The SB raises to 600, BB calls, limper calls, I call. Flop is 654dd. Pretty sweet for me! Checks to me, I go 1300, and both blinds fold and the limper calls. Turn is T. He checks, I bet 4000. I am trying to get his hands like A6 or 88 to fold here, but he quickly calls again. River 7x. He checks. Now I have to decide whether or not to bomb it to get him to fold better.  For one, he certainly can have an 8, and can have a 3, and isn't folding either no matter what. Also, knowing where people are at psychologically helps. Prob 10 minutes before this hand, he led a QQ9dd flop, I call in position with JT, turn is 7d, he checks, I bet, he calls, river 5d, he checks, I bet, he angrily folds what from his reaction was a Q. So I don't think he is in the mood to fold to me again, so I just check it back. He shows K9dd and we are good!  What a good "miss"!

    Brutal hand at 500/1000/100, folds to SB who makes it 3k with a 30k stack. I 3b to 12k with AQ, he ships it, I shrug call.  He has the A4o, but no worries, he gets the 532 flop. 60 bigs in the middle in a huge spot there. Feeling completely snakebitten at this point where every time someone gets it in an awful spot they just get there. Had been cruising among the chip leaders, now crashing back to average. 

    Not long after, guy limps with 16k, I go 3k with KQs, he jams, I shrug-eyeroll-call, he has TT, and I don't improve, so now I'm short. We jam 15.2 at 6/12/2 with KQ, guy behind says all-in and I'm like uh oh.  He has the AK, and flop and turn brick out. River queeeeeeeeeeeeen. So much more fun on the other end of that.

    At 8/16, guy goes 3600, another guy calls, then a guy jams about 20k, we have 35k and look down to two beautiful aces, my first of the trip. Giggity! We jam, other two fold, the allin guy has AK and is drawing dead on the turn. I haven't changed my play, but damn it sucks feeling extremely anxious getting in as a 93-7 favorite!

    Then a super insane hand: Folds to me on the button at 2000/4000/500, and I have 75k and JJ.  There are 28 people left, paying 24 spots. I open to 10k, BB is a competent player, and is Asian with a very heavy accent. He raises to 25k. I pause about 5 seconds, and then slide all of my chips in the middle. I hear "caww" and I flip my hand face-up. He says NO I SAID COUNT, COUNT. He goes into the tank, and I say "well, at least I know you don't have an overpair".  He is counting his chips, and the pot.  He has to call 50k and there is 106 in the middle so he's getting just over 2 to 1. I'm hoping somehow someway he is talking himself into a fold with two overs since he is beat. He finally folds what he said was an ace as his only over. Works out fairly well for me to pick up a huge pot without having to fade 5 cards at a 3 outer for my tourney life 4 off the bubble. He decides he should say how much? or ask "count please?" rather than stating a declarative "coun."  

    I have a tough spot right after we redraw to 27, so 3 off the bubble. Folds to girl on the button, she opens to 12 at 2/4, we defend BB with 98ss. Flop is KJ5s. We check, she bets 12 and doesn't seem to like it at all. I call with the plan to take it on the river if she checks turn (plus we have some runouts that are good). Elite turn card is the Ts. I am thinking and she checks out of turn. I bet 33 and she tank calls. River is 9x. I check, she jams, I fold obv. She says she was Hollywooding turn, so I assume AQ. Glad I didn't river an 8! 

    Now we are short on the bubble, we jam two marginal hands in a row in late position for 10 bigs then 12, something like KJ and 66. Next hand, girl from 98 hand opens UTG1 and we have 13 bigs, 88 and we are 2 off the bubble. Such an easy jam if the bubble is burst, but my fold equity has to be fairly low at this point, so I disgustedly muck. 

    We are now in the money, and I jam AJdd for 15 bigs over a raise and the raiser calls with 66. Flop is blank, but turn gives me a flush draw, and I river one of my 15 outs with a J. She says "always the river!!" Very next hand, I open 99, and she jams her remaining 15 bigs, I call and she has 77.  Guy next to me whispers "I folded one of her sevens" which is code for "you won't win this pot." Flop T86, turn 3, I river a set, which of course gives her the straight. I do exclaim "are you fucking kidding" and she says "hey I don't want to hear it from you, you just did the same thing to me."  Yep, good point lady, you were a 52-48 favorite when the money went in and a 68-32 favorite going to the river. I was a 90-10 favorite when the money went in and 95-5 going to the river, but SAME THING.

    To be continued....

    • Like 2
  8. 1 hour ago, Doc Sam Beckett said:

     

    Agreed some ACC schools have a terrible OOC schedule, and also agree the ACC is down this year, but again, where should these 2 loss P5 teams be ranked of not where they are? Any P5 team with 2 losses is going to be ranked high with a good resume (LSU) and mid pack with a weak resume (BC, Cuse, NCSU). I will agree that Cuse should probably be lower. 

    What would Baylor or Okie Lite do with BC or Cuse's schedule? Who knows, but I don't think they would be 7-2. Duke went to Waco without a couple of their best players and kicked the shit out of the Bears. I know you think the ACC teams are all terrible because the conference is down this year, but I still think those three are solid mid level teams who, on any given week, can punch above their weight class or get taken down by an inferior team.....just like the solid mid level teams in the rest of the P5 conferences. 

    Also in Sagarin - 28 Kentucky, 29 Florida, 30 NCSU, 33 BC. 

     

    So #11 Kentucky at 7, 31 is not overrated, but #17 BC at 18, 30 is? 

    The problem with the secsecsec is they continue to get the benefit of the doubt by beating each other. Not sure what Miss St has done to justify being 10 in FPI. 

    I think those 2 loss P5 teams should be behind some 3 loss P5 teams that have actually beaten top teams, and scheduled decently OOC. And I'm not trying to hate on the ACC in general. For example, 6-3 Duke might deserve to be ranked ahead of all of those teams. They won at Miami, which is as good as any win any of those 3 have in conference, plus OOC they beat 7-2 Army, and won at Baylor and at B1G division-leading Northwestern as well, all by 2 TDs or more. Their 3 losses are all to teams in the top 1/3 of the ACC.  None of the teams that are ranked in the ACC have had to play Duke, who very legit might be the 2nd best ACC team. Penn State is another 3 loss team that I think has a better resume than the ACC 3, though PSU seems to be "trending down", so I don't mind them being "underrated."

    My strong guess is OSU and Baylor would each be 7-2 with Syracuse's schedule. One clear loss, @ Clemson, though if Baylor or OSU got Lawrence-less Clemson like Cuse did, who knows. 6 clear wins, with 2 "toss-up" type games, being NC State and @Pitt. 

    I do think Kentucky is mildly overrated, but my point was that there are metrics that the committee can say they relied on for Kentucky - strength of record. Note that Miss State and Auburn don't have a high SOR, so it isn't just an SEC circlejerk metric. Clearly, Kentucky's SOR doesn't match their on-field power, which watching the games confirms for most people. I would have Kentucky in the 15-17 range. The 3 ACC teams were all ranked higher than EITHER their SOR or power rankings justified.

    You say the SEC is getting the "benefit of the doubt by beating each other" but then want to say "Hey Cuse is 7-2, by beating 3 total creampuffs OOC and then beat some medium ACC teams so what can you do", which is literally exactly what everyone whines the SEC does. 

    Miss State is high in FPI because of their defensive efficiency. They've allowed 9 TDs this year. Of course, we will see how that holds up this weekend. They did at least go on the road and beat a mid-level P5 team by 3 TDs. I know La Tech isn't a sexy name, but they are 6-3, played LSU tight, only other loss is to 8-1 UAB, and Miss State crushed them by 42 in a trappy spot.

    Lastly, I don't think the ACC teams are all "terrible", but I do think that each of the other P5 conferences has multiple teams that would be a CLEAR #2 in the ACC, because there is just a morass of mediocrity behind Clemson. The ACC is Clemson, then like 11 teams that are like Tech or KSU or Baylor, then 2 Kansases (UNC/Lou).  Teams I think would definitely be top 2 in the ACC:

    B12: OU, WVU, Texas, ISU
    B1G: tOSU, Mich, Sparty, PSU
    PAC: Wazzu, UW, Utah pre-injuries, Stanford
    SEC: Bama, UGA, Miss State, Auburn, lolaggy
    OTHER: Utah State, Fresno State, UCF

    I know you're a Clemson fan, and I'm not trying to slight Clemson with any of this. They are NOT a team like Iowa a couple years ago or Wisconsin where they were unbeaten due to schedule despite being like the 15th best team in the country. Clemson is elite. But it will be very interesting, should they happen to lose, if the awfulness of the ACC or the clear power of Clemson is the deciding factor for the committee.

    • Like 1
  9. 3 minutes ago, Al_4_ISU said:

    Michigan does have the better loss thus far

    Yep, plus they would be on a 12 game win streak and the B1G is slightly stronger than the B12 (at least for teams in the B1G East).

  10. On 11/6/2018 at 11:35 AM, Al_4_ISU said:

    Exactly.  The only way a 1 loss OU gets left out is if the current 4 all win out.

    Texas was in the same spot prior to the OK State loss.  A 1 loss OU or UT isn't getting left out unless there's some kind of really unlikely outcome among ND and every other power conference.

    I would add to that if UGA beats an undefeated Bama for the SEC title and none or one of Clemson, ND, and Michigan lose. 

    I do agree with the other poster that a 12-1 B1G champ Michigan is ahead of a 12-1 B12 champ OU, and I have no problem with that.

  11. To follow up a bit more, the two components that the committee should look at are "how good is the team?" and "how good is what they have done?"

    Those two components are reflected in power rankings and Strength of Record metrics. Here are the CFP rankings, with each team's SOR and FPI ranking. I bolded the teams that are ranked higher in the CFP than in either of these metrics. For the OMGSEC bias crew, note that UGA is ahead of Mich in both yet behind them in CFP:

    1. Alabama - 2, 1
    2. Clemson - 3, 2
    3. Notre Dame - 1, 8
    4. Michigan - 5, 4
    5. UGA - 4, 3
    6. OU - 8, 5
    7. LSU - 6, 12
    8. Wazzu - 11, 25
    9. West Va - 9, 11
    10. tOSU - 10, 6
    11. Kentucky - 7, 31 - the general feeling that UK is too high is a result of this large disparity
    12. UCF - 12, 32
    13. Syracuse - 27, 40 - not a top 25 team by EITHER metric, yet #13. By far the worst ranking in the list.
    14. NCSU - 15, 34
    15. Florida - 14, 20
    16. Miss State - 28, 10
    17. BC - 18, 30
    18. Michigan St. - 13, 17
    19. Texas - 24, 24
    20. Penn State - 19, 7
    21. Iowa - 26, 13
    22. Iowa State - 16, 29
    23. Fresno St - 35, 18
    24. Auburn - 30, 19
    25. Washington - 17, 9

    So 5 teams appear overrated by this list, 0 from the SEC, 3 from the ACC and 1 each from the B12 and P12. Mich State, Penn State and UW appear underrated by the list as both their SOR and FPI rankings are higher than their CFP rating. PSU makes some sense as they appeared hapless in their last game and are trending down. 

  12. 1 hour ago, Doc Sam Beckett said:

     

     BC, Cuse, and NCSU are all in the same boat. Their best win is another team from their conference, which isn't anything special in each case, but at the end of the day, they are all 7-2/6-2 in a P5 conference. There are a ton of teams that don't have a signature win. PedoState has one more loss than BC, and no signature wins, but is only 3 spots away from BC in the rankings. I think that trio of ACC teams is accurately ranked. They have a good chance of finishing 10-2 (NCSU), 9-3 (BC), and 8-4 (Cuse). 

    I believe Southgate recently released a line on a potential Bama/Clemson matchup and had it at Bama -8.5 iirc. And I agree with you that Miss St would probably open around a 13 point home dog, but I bet it would be closer to 20 around kickoff. 

    Pitt and Purdue are two teams that I think have been playing a lot better lately and are better than a lot of the teams ranked ahead of them. 

    Part of the issue is some woeful OOC scheduling, on top of a very weak ACC this year.

    BC's OOC was UMass, Holy Cross, Temple, and Purdue. Temple is decent, and Purdue blew BC out.
    Syracuse's OOC was Western Michigan, Wagner, and UConn. That is WRETCHED. By far the best team of those 3 is WMU, and they lost to Mich by 46, Toledo by 27, and Ohio by 45 (and Syracuse by 13). They do play Notre Dame, and obviously if they win, that changes the calculus.
    NCSU is hampered by the WVU cancellation (or helped, if you think WVU houses them), but they are left with James Madison, Georgia State, and Marshall.

    Put another way, what do you LEGITIMATELY think a team like Oklahoma State or Baylor would have as a record with these 3 teams schedules?

    Penn State played App State, which is better than every team above except probably Purdue, and also beat Pitt, who you say is underrated, 51-6. Penn State also beat Iowa, which is better than every team any of the above 3 have beaten. None of the above teams has a win remotely close to beating Pitt by 45 points. PSU's losses are to 3 ranked teams, 2 of the losses by a combined 5 points. 

    In Sagarin Predictor, PSU is 7, NCSU is 30, BC is 34, Syracuse is 44. If the committee was ranking SEC teams 20-30 spots higher than their Sagarin computer rankings, people would be going BERSERK, especially SEC teams with the pure hot garbage schedules I just posted.

    To compare to the controversial SEC rankings, in SP, LSU is 10, Miss State 11, Florida 26, Kentucky 29, Auburn 18.  So the committee is slightly overrating LSU, slightly underrating Miss State and Auburn, and significantly overrating Florida and Kentucky (but less than it is overrating the ACC trio). 

    I agree that Clem @ Miss State would open at 13, but no way it moves to 20.  Feel free to point to many games, if any, that shifted a touchdown after opening with no major injury news. Also, you are saying that Clemson would be a TD+ dog to Bama, which is true, but then making a claim that the odds would treat Clem as better than Bama, as a +20 road spread is a more powerful spread than a +24 home spread, which is what Miss State @ Bama is (opened there, hasn't moved, BTW). 

    To your last point, Pitt and Purdue were two of the teams that I had in mind that the committee is currently underranking because they are "sorting by record" rather than truly a deep dive into how a team is playing.

  13. 4 minutes ago, Barry_McCokiner said:

    Definitely was on tilt as I was gashed early on.  The player that essentially went all in was pretty tight, bought in with a huge stack and dominated the table the first few hours.  He knew poker.  I'm not positive I was bluffed out, but that game has a lot of draws and 12 bucks just may not have been enough to isolate him.  Getting cute with big pairs can often lead to disaster and you get what you deserve.

    What was your stack?  I thought he had a big stack, but he shoved the flop?  Give some details, and we can chat on it.

  14. Make your standard opening raise with those hands. 12 is fine at 1/2 unless we will get called if we go bigger.

    Folding what you think is a winner because you don’t want to rebuy is a form of tilt. You need to recognize that and either put that mindset away or stand up.

    What was the exact flop action? How much did we have behind? Any description or read on the player who bet?

  15. The PACn is a pretty damn competitive division so I don't know how to split WVU vs WSU. But LSU and the rest are only there because of SEC inflation.  All of their wins are against each other.


    It is competitive but WVU win at Texas is better than anything Wazzu has. It is a “grind of mediums” where there are no elite teams but only one bad one.

     
    7) LSU 7-2
    11) Kentucky 7-2
    13) Cuse 7-2
    14) NCSU 7-2
    15) Gata 6-3
    16) Miss St 6-3
    17) BC 7-2
    24) Auburn 6-3
     
    You see this and think the ACC is more loltastic than the secsecsec? Where should those 7-2 ACC teams be ranked? Gata, Miss St, Auburn and Kentucky rankings are hilarious. And Miss St may not be home this weekend, but they are a 24 point dog. 
     


    Didn’t say it was more loltastic but I think it is pretty damn bad, and every post was just on the SEC. The committee does too much “sort by record” rather than digging deep. Who are the best wins for Syracuse, NCSU and BC? And I wholly agree that LSU, Kentucky and Gata are too high esp Gata who just got whipped in Gainesville by Medicorezou. I could buy LSU at 7 if they lost semi-competitively to Bama but that blowout plus their Fla loss being devalued should have dropped them more absolutely.

    Bama would be 7 pt fave over Clem on a neutral field so that projects to Miss State would be about a 12-13 point home dog to Clemson.

    Auburn at 24 is reasonable to me. Who is left out that is an egregious exclusion? Best team out is prob Utah State and their best win is a close loss to Sparty. Their schedule is abysmal though they have been annihilating most teams and I would take them on a neutral field vs UCF.

    I really wish WVU and NCSU had been able to play. 


    Same!
  16. Wash State over West Va is just indefensible, much as I love the pirate. Wash State has 0 wins over the CFP Top 25, WVU has 1.  WVU loss was on the road to CFP Top 25 team, Wazzu loss was to unranked team. 

    LSU should be 9. The dropoff behind Ohio State is gigantic, so all the teams 11-25 may feel like they are overrated.  Everyone is bagging on the SEC love, but the ACC having Syr, BC and NCSU in the top 17 is also loltastic feeling. For Christ's sake, #17 is a 20 point home dog this week.

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  17. 2 hours ago, DeadArmadillo said:

    Me and my girl are going to drive from Lubbock to Manhattan, KS for the Tech-KSU game.  She has family in Wichita and is from Lawrence and Tech is playing USC in basketball Monday night.  So we are going to leave in a rental on Thursday, work our way up, and fly back Tuesday.  The earlier the kickoff, the earlier we leave.  

    We haven't been dating that long and she has an eight year old son, so this will be our first real alone time away from her kid.  She's also quite a bit younger than me and I may have out kicked my coverage.  So I plan to tap it as many times as possible in that window.  I don't know if it's going to work out, so I'm going to strike while the iron is hot, so to speak.  So the sooner the kickoff time is announced, the sooner I can start planning, and the better I can coordinate and maximize the action. 

    So that's why I hate the six day window

    I had to read this like 5 times and then pull up the Texas Tech hoops schedule to figure out why a Texas Tech - Southern Cal basketball game on Monday impacted a trip to Kansas from Thursday to Tuesday.  

    Happy fuckin'.

  18. 3 hours ago, Barry_McCokiner said:

    Yeah, so I usually go low, let's say 150, and I see someone buy in for 500, it makes it tough, I still play the cards, but it's different.

    Don't sweat the chip disparities, it's not a tournament. Be aware of the effective stacks, and how it impacts what people would play though. For example, if someone opens to 15 and someone else calls 15, their ranges (should) look a lot different if they are 150 deep vs 1000 deep in a 1/3 game. 

    If we are shallow, we have to play less speculative hands, and more TPTK type hands.

    But someone doesn't have an advantage over you in a cash game just because their stack is 600 and yours is 150.

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