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TXSooner518

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Posts posted by TXSooner518

  1. My initial instinct was the same as y'all, to fold.  I specifically was worried about 66 and A6 the most. I again took an unusual amount of time for me to think/talk through the hand. I apologized to the table and said that I had a really big hand (villain said "take your time"), and talked to the villain, asking why so much, what he thought I had, etc.  Villain seemed pretty uncomfortable and then his food delivery showed up, and he seemed pretty frazzled in dealing with the food delivery person.

    The live reads (probably aided by the fact that I would be calling with profit) made me decide to call.  I got the two sweetest words in poker: "you're good".  He showed KTo.  He did get some back in a similar spot where I couldn't decide what level we were on, I open QJ to $10, 3 calls, including him in SB.  Flop Q95hh.  I cbet $20, only he calls.  Flop 7x, ck ck.  River 3x, he bets $85, I call, he shows 86o. 

    Still, cashed out +$503 in a 75 minute session, will take that every day.

    • Like 1
  2. 30 minutes ago, CBT said:

    That gives me a little pause. You don't see someone overbet twice that often in such a short period of time. Could be two super strong hands or he could be a lagtard.

    Turn donk could be a flush draw, but 1/2 villains don't usually don't like to do it on a paired board, especially with it being an ace. If he has any positional awareness he knows you have all the good Aces ([x] put you on AK), and you having the Jd blocks some of his flush draws.

    Part of the complicating factor is I think many villains will assume I don't have the ace when I just call instead of raising the turn.  So then the question is, if he has it, what is he hoping I call with?  If he doesn't have it, how often does he think I have an ace, and what does he think I will do with it to his jam?

    Similar to IF he was jamming just a 5 on the other hand, what is he hoping to get calls from or make fold?

    Edit to add: I don't think he is jamming worse for value here much if at all (maybe AT?). I just don't see him showing up with A7 or something here.  I think his value jams here are AQ (discounted due to pre), 66, A6, A8.  I think he never has QQ or 88.  So I do also block a big chunk of his value range, in addition to my Jd blocking some straight/flush draws for him.

  3. 2 minutes ago, CBT said:

     

    With that description of villain, and that line he took, it's a boat 99% of the time in a 1/2 game. 

    To be clear, I didn't see his hand on the other hand where he overbet the river, the opponent folded.

  4. Played a short cash session last night and had another fun river decision. 

    BACKGROUND HANDS
    I've been at the table about 45 minutes, and fairly recently won a pretty gross pot:  guy limps, I raise to $12 with KThh, 3 calls, limper jams for $62.  I have about $170 effective.  I think all options are good/bad.  I think the limper can be pretty wide, since the pot is almost his stack size, he can jam wide, it gets through a lot, and if he gets called, he is almost getting 2:1 on his money.  I consider just folding, I consider jamming to isolate, but decide to do what is probably the worst, which is call.  My thought at the time was that the other players likely fold, so now I'm getting 2.2:1 on my money against a wide range, and if they re-jam, I know I'm in trouble.  The problem is that at that point, I'm still getting a great price, and may induce the re-jam by calling.  In retrospect I think jam>fold>>>>call.  One other guy, who was a bad button-clicker, called.  Pot $210, 3 players, 1 allin.  Flop QT7ssc.  I check, he bets $40, I call.  Turn 3c. I check, he bets $55, I had about $65 left and just stick it in, and he calls and says "hit me dealer".  River 5d, I flip up my KT, he shows 88, limp-jammer folds what he says is AK and I scoop.

    Few minutes later, I open J9 to $10 in LP, 3 calls.  Flop KQ5, I cbet $20, guy is allin for $21 total, I call and lose to his QJ.

    HAND IN QUESTION
    10 minutes later, I go $10 UTG with AhJd, 3 calls.  Flop AQ6dd.  I cbet $20, only the BB calls. Pot $80. Turn A.  BB bets $40.  I call here.  Obviously he can have lots of draws, but raising here takes away his bluffs and worse hands. Pot $160. River 8x. BB stacks up all of his chips in a tower and shoves for $275.  Villain is a regular who has been talking lots of poker, including bragging about stacking a guy 3 times the night before, with one being snapcalling AA on 743 flop for $500 and sucking out on 43. I have seen him do the stack all his chips overbet river jam once before in this session, jamming about $200 over a $20 river bet into $50 or so on 876Q4.  I remember thinking at the time that the overbet there seemed horrible unless he had T9. It's great with T9, because a 5 just won't ever fold.  But if he overjammed with just the 5, you just make everything you beat fold, and get stacked off the times you are beat.

    So, facing a bet of $275 into $160, holding AhJd on AdQc6d As 8h. WUG?

     

  5. Indeed. Still a +$584 cash session. Tourney was similarly rigged when guy flats QTo to my AJss. Flop J94sxx, get it in on 8s turn, brick river.

    Also a cauldron of rigged: I am BB and the dealer bonks my second card into my hand and exposes it. 9h. My other card is 9s. Replacement is Kx. Chipleader donk clown limps (this is legit 90% of hands). SB jams 3 blinds. I call K9. Clown folds. SB has AA . 9 flops.

  6. I tanked which is unusual. I usually play pretty quickly. I knew it was close. I thought about folding to help ensure a win but also pride myself on not letting previous results impact my decisions. I finally called and got shown AQ. #fu

    • Like 1
  7. 1 hour ago, CBT said:

    Ugh, even button mashers may not river pot it at 1/2 without the goods. Does he really do that with Ax?? In H2, he checks his top pair, although it was versus 2 people. H1 shows us his dumb x/minraise line. Wish we knew what what he had there. Did he do it with Kx and call it off?

    It's gross either way, but I probably fold unless I'm really confident that he does that will all (or most of) his Ax combos. 

    I wouldn't think he is jamming Ax on the river for value, but to get me to fold a chop.  I think he can jam A5/Q5 out of uh-oh I"m counterfeited must jam to win.  I think he has maybe one combo of KJ or KT where he tried to bet-size control to draw cheap.  

    Obviously he also can have all the 55, all the A6, and sometimes AQ/AK for value.  Comfortable saying never QQ, never AA, never 66, never 65, never Q6.

    Also keep in mind that calling and winning 0%, chopping 60%, losing 40% is about break-even.  Win 0, chop 65, lose 35 shows profit to call.

  8. It doesn't matter where the money in the pot came from.  That's the sunk cost fallacy.  What if the casino was running a $500 splash pot promo, are we not going to factor all that money in just because it didn't come from our stack?  Also we would be making DRAMATICALLY different conclusions using your method in a situation where, say, 10 people see the flop for $10 apiece or 2 people for $50 apiece, even though there is $100 in the pot either way.  

    For this hand, let's say I have $400 behind on the river.  Also I erroneously put I win $110 in a chop, it's actually 105.

    If I fold, obviously, I have $400 in my stack.

    If I call and lose, I have $230.

    If I call and chop, I have $505.

    If I call and win, I have $779.

    You have to use these numbers, and not the numbers related to what I personally put in to accurately calculate your EV and make a correct decision.  So as a jump off, not as the actual range, let's say I win 30, lose 30, chop 40.  My EV of calling is (.3x779) + (.3x230) + (.4x505) = $504.7.  So calling wins me $104 using those numbers, as calling I will average $504 and folding I will have $400.  Make the numbers win 25, lose 40, chop 35 and the EV is $463, winning $63 by calling.  Make them win 20, lose 50, chop 30, and you win $21.50 by calling.  Make them win 10, lose 60, chop 30 and calling loses $32.50.  I don't think it can ever be worse than that honestly.  

    Your way is dramatically undercounting the value of calling and chopping simply because some of that money originated in my stack. It's gone now, and isn't coming back unless I call and win or chop.

  9. 11 minutes ago, AUS-97HORN said:

    my guess is villain has one of 5 hands.

    1st: Qx

    2nd: Ax  maybe A5 or I guess technically Q5 as well, he's pissed at the river counterfeiting his 2 pair and jams to make it too "expensive" to call.

    3rd: 55

    4th: AQ

    5th   total air.   maybe holding 4-3 going for the inside straight, then open ender and missing

    since no flush draw, I really cant see much else unless he lucked into something like 6x.  outside chance of A6, Q6.

    so for the rational hands you are 50/50 on being ahead or even . If the guy is being a complete lunatic, then you are good on a river bluff.

    You are getting 2.3X to call with an honest chance of not losing more than 50% of the time.

    unless you really read bluff, and it sounding like hes a top pair never foldem, I would only expect to win about 25% of the time, tie about 30%, and lose about 45%. 

    So you lose $67 by folding or lose $237 by calling, win $37 with a tie, or win $380 by winning.

     

    safe play is fold.  but calling isnt horribad

    Where are you getting the $67, $237, $37, $380 numbers?  Chopping wins me $110 as compared to folding here.

    9 minutes ago, CBT said:

    how many combos of AQ and AK is he raising pre from the straddle?

    My read at the time was that he was almost never having AQ or AK because I thought he would raise those pre.

    6 minutes ago, CBT said:

    Is he x/minraising either of these in a multiway limped pot? Maybe, but seems like they should high discounted. 

    Agree I don't see much Qx at all.  Maybe an occasional KJ or KT where he is button clicking a bit maybe to try and take the lead on the flop then bet the turn small to keep his draw cheap.  

    My thoughts were Q5, 55, Ax as his 3 most likely hands. 

  10. Holy balls, I am actually on a 2-session cash game win streak after the Bataan Death March where every session ended with some absolutely ridiculous bullshit. 

    I have played a bit at The Lodge, poker club in Round Rock.  Games are pretty soft, couple of fun quick tourneys (though I still maintain tourneys are not beatable paying hourly rake at low stakes), comfy chairs and tables.  

    First session was before their $120 tourney with $40 bounties.  I had about 75 minutes to play, and 50 minutes in, hadn't raked a chip.  Ended up raising AA, getting 4 calls, and getting it in on a Q95 board.  Guy had JT, turned a J but missed the river.  With 4 min to go til the tourney, raise and call in front of me, I 3bet QQ, really expecting the initial raiser to 4b allin to continue my "last 5 minutes of a session" doomswitch but they folded, and I booked a +$200 session.  Busted the tourney in 8th, paying 6, getting it in on KJ9 holding KJ against AK, A on turn no waiting.  Did earn two bounties, and also won a 3 way allin holding JJ against KJ and AQ, which is a hand I never win, so maybe things are turning?

    Went yesterday to play in their 7-game mix, but it didn't go, so I played some more 1/2.  Had one tough interesting decision.  The background -  villain is loose and very "button-clicky" meaning he makes decisions sometimes without much apparent logic.  I have him in the "don't bluff him" circle after these two hands:  

    H1: He straddles my BB to $5, someone makes it $14, horrendous player in the SB calls, I call from BB with QcJc, he calls straddle.  4 to flop, $56.  Flop is T35r, checks through.  Turn K, flush draw.  SB bets $25, I call, he makes it $50, SB calls, I call.  Pot $206. River 9x. SB bets $40 with $120 behind, villain has about $175 behind. I cover both, and jam.  Villain calls quickly, SB tank tank tank tank calls with K9.  I show the nuts.  Villain says SB had him beat with the K9.

    H2: I open Ac9c to $10 from MP, villain calls CO, BB defends. Pot $31.  Flop QhJTcc.  Ck, I bet $18, both call.  Pot $67. Turn 4h.  I bet $45, both call.  Pot $202. River 3x. Checks through, villain wins with Q5o.  (BB had Ah5h).  

    On to the hand in question:  Villain straddles my BB to $7, two people call, I call Ac8c, villain call.  Pot $29.  Flop AQ5r, one club.  I ck, villain ck, $15, call, call, villain $30, call, call, call.  Pot $149.  Turn 6x. Ck villain $30, fold, fold, I call.  Pot $209.  River 6x. So AQ566, I hold A8.  I check, villain jams for $170.  Thoughts?

  11. now were having fun....and why not acl
    In theory everyone would just be simulations. Dont we want everyone to play smart
    And it is a teamsport in a sense...every card is connected and every card played changes the odds due to the set number of cards in deck, right?
     
     


    Not without knowing what it is. Say you and I are playing a game. You pull a card from a facedown deck. If it is a heart or diamond I pay you $100, otherwise you pay me $100. An exactly breakeven game.

    Now Huck comes up and takes a card out of the deck. We don't see what it is. He has changed the odds, but it is meaningless because he is exactly as likely to help you as hurt you. So by taking a card he is slightly changing the odds, but isn't changing our expectation by taking a card.
    • Like 2
  12. 15 hours ago, Bone3421 said:

    Yall are both wrong...what somebody does in front of other players effects the whole table

    As example stated if jackass knew how to play he wouldnt hit on 16 with dealer showing 6...his moronic choice cost everyone at the table 

    Hopefully i dont play with yall either

    Nope, you are wrong.  Put it this way:  You have a $1000 bet on the table.  You and I both have 14 and the dealer has a 6 up.  Answer these two questions:

    1) How much does me hitting decrease the chance that the dealer busts?

    2) How much would you pay me to not hit, since you think me hitting decreases your win chances?

    2 hours ago, Incredulity said:

    well there is questionable play and there is stupid play.

     

    I can go along and get along with questionable play.  Splitting 10's, hitting anything over 11 against 4, 5 and 6(obviously soft excluded) are leave table time.

    Why leave the table?  It literally doesn't affect your expected value by a penny.

    50 minutes ago, chitwood said:

    Math (and specifically probability) is apparently hard for the OP.

    Hard for lots of people.

    • Like 3
  13. 16 hours ago, Seasick Sailor said:

    Moreland is awesome. I saw him open for Iron and Wine a few months ago. Unfortunately, the Iron and Wine fans talked over most of his set. Really disappointing. 

    Goddamn I hate people who yap through concerts. Always maddening, but extra infuriating when it's the headliner.  Saw Wilco at Stubbs and morons in front of me just kept yammering.  It's like why the fuck did you buy tickets to stand here and try to talk over music?  You could have stood outside and done that for free. 

  14. 14 hours ago, Lurch said:

    Flop was Q98 rainbow.  W AA and KK I’m betting pretty large to price out the straight draws that most probably have and probably checking the turn regardless of what hits.  Bet small and you’re likely seeing everyone go to the turn and have no idea where you are.

    There is only one possible OESD which is 76, which isn't gonna like his hand much, because if he hits the T, he loses to any jack, so he basically has a gutshot worth of equity.  I doubt hands like AT are calling 60 on the flop, and if they are, well we are in an awesome game.

    The problem is we just don't have a huge equity edge in a 4 handed pot with one pair and no way to improve on this board.  Q9, Q8, 98, 88, 99 and JT are all very plausible hands, which all have us in bad shape or worse.  I think we are getting a bit married to our preflop equity, rather than adjusting to the current situation.  If we pot it and get jammed on, we have to fold, barring specific reads, so we are just losing more when we bet/fold huge.  

    Obviously, I also think there is a big difference in the situation where we are in position vs OOP.  OOP, I actually prefer checking our range, and seeing what happens behind.  If it goes bet/raise/call or something like that, we can often just pitch our hand. 

    After typing this, I ran a sim on EquiLab.  I gave hero KK, and 3 opponents ranges which included roughly 25%, 25% and 35% of hands (making the last one wider since they can call wider pre since the pot is bigger), and here are the equities on Q98r:

    http://www.pokerstrategy.com
    Board: Qh9s8c
        Equity    Win    Tie
    MP2    38.19%    37.85%    0.34%    { KK }
    MP3    21.57%    20.04%    1.52%    { JJ-22, A2s+, K8s+, Q8s+, J8s+, T8s+, 98s, ATo+, KTo+, QTo+, JTo, T9o, 98o }
    CO    21.41%    19.80%    1.62%    { 66+, A2s+, K6s+, Q8s+, J8s+, T8s+, A7o+, K9o+, QTo+, JTo }
    BU    18.83%    17.36%    1.47%    { 55+, A2s+, K4s+, Q6s+, J7s+, T7s+, 98s, A4o+, K8o+, Q9o+, J9o+, T9o }

    We do have an edge, but if the stacks go in it is against the top of our opponent's range. Betting big just folds out the chaff, while committing us against the straights, sets, and 2 pair. This is not the spot to play a big pot with one pair.

    • Like 1
  15. On 4/30/2018 at 3:14 PM, Nice Guy Eddie said:

    That’s cool but raising the BB by 6x is too much with the initial raise.    It’s a great way to buy the SB and BB. Free turn around the table.  If that is a players goal, I think it’s a great strategy.    

    I would agree that raising 6x in a tourney would be pretty bad, but most cash games I have played 6x isn't too much.    You do need to know the table and your opponents and size correctly.  I just played a 1/2 cash game where there was a $5 straddle, I opened to $20 with AA and got 4 callers. 

    I do think the guy with AA actually bet too MUCH on the flop, as there's no reason to bloat the pot on a connected board 4 handed with one pair.  Similar to Lurch's KK hand earlier, this board is bad for AA, so utilize some pot control.  Calling the two allins is just suicidal.  I also do agree that the KK guy should just be calling the flop.  Again, we don't need to pot commit ourselves to stack off 100 BB deep with one pair on connected boards in multiway pots.

  16. I think this is a snapfold actually. I don't love raising flop either. Coordinated board, 4 opponents and we have one pair.

    Def fold now. We raised a good reg's bet. A solid player called our raise and then another solid reg jammed 100 big blinds. Either your reads are off or BTN or BB or both have KK murked.

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