
horn4life
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Everything posted by horn4life
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2021 - Is inflation finally back in the conversation?
horn4life replied to Reagan1k's topic in Business and Markets
I would be curious to know the numbers and how they fell in line with your expectations. I honestly do not know how you could bid something really large with steel as a contract component that might span over several years. I assume most of the bids have differing types of cost escalation clauses? -
But why a drop after "good news?" That's an inverse from my expectation.
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OK- Anyone one know anything about this company? Zoetis ZTS? I saw that they have reportedly been given conditional approval for a bird flu vaccine, in an article related to Turkey sending a bunch of eggs to the US. I went to the chart expecting to see a little pop for the stock I knew nothing about. But instead of a rise I see a decline of 8.5% in the last 5 days. To what i would have expected to be good news? Anyhow when I see something I don't expect, sometimes there is a hidden opportunity when I dig around.
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The only certainty on this thread is that someone named Igcognito, wishes he had communicated in a more incognito manner. Than say... voicemail?
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I am actually at the point of sort of deciding that the bulls are going to overrun me in the short term. While I do expect a higher inflation number, I think the tactic of kicking the tariff can down the road, makes the market think that implementation is far from certain. But SWA just had it's first layoffs ever. Since folks have been piling on you Wally... I guess it's easier to pull 50% from the market when you don't have to worry about those pesky capital gains... 😉
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UFC is a pay per view model at this point isn't it? Well I did stop a guy switching from the women's game yesterday to Golf at Paul Martin's. But it was a tight game with a few minutes left and I had a vested interest in watching any Longhorn team. I would probably not watch much WNBA, because I don't watch much NBA except for Rockets and Spurs during this time of the year, before switching to Astros, Horn baseball. But where I do see the potential for growth in the WNBA, is the same reason I listed for watching all the above teams. I have a personal connection via hometown, or where I went to school. I think the the WNBA can build upon that model. Think of Texas high school football small town loyalty and fervor, but on a national scale. I think that the WNBA model is one of development fierce regional and smaller market loyalty, that bleeds over into TV watching. It's a solid model, that should keep the WNBA growing. And who knows what 20 years of steady growth might bring. I think the key is the accessibility of the fans to the players in new leagues, and the WNBA seems to have that going fairly well.
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I feel for any kid that gets themselves in trouble. I really hate to see wonderful opportunities squandered, but it happens every day as a result of bad choices, and often just bad luck. But the bad luck is a result of the bad choices that but their future in jeopardy. Reminded me of the sad story of Ramonce Taylor. What a waste. But hopefully purpose and happiness can be found for Johntay on the back side of all this.
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The Leopards Eating Faces and Unlubed Dildo of Consequences Thread
horn4life replied to Horn Dog's topic in Cloak Room
But can you lie away economic consequences? Will the market believe the lies? There is no doubt that propaganda works, and with so many willing to repeat the lies as truth the lies certainly have the upper hand. But can lies mask economic reality? Can simply not reporting, counting or trying to effectively manage bird flu for example mean that "We are doing a fantasitic job" White house alternative reality? Or will the fact Eggs are 50% more in a month, rule as fact? It's just like abortion. Does anyone expect any honest numbers regarding infant mortality from the State of Texas for example? Lying works. And It's not really lying if it if you simply don't allow the truth to be known... And Republicans honestly view this as how government should work. -
I would say try to avoid the crab tacos...
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A day A&M will never, ever, ever, ever, see... so there's that! 😉
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There's a reason the angler looks "so Austin." You can congratulate Willie Pipkin... and Friends. Any given Sunday evening at Continental Club.
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All Encompassing Mortgage and Real Estate Thread
horn4life replied to UTPhil2006's topic in Business and Markets
If by fucked you mean you aren't going to see 5% in 2025? Yeah, thats the most likely scenario. But I would argue that with tight inventory and assumed appreciation, is that percent that huge? Is an 8% loan fucked in it appreciates 8% in 4 years for example? I would also be selling that yes in the 7's you might feel fucked, but right now with so much uncertainty, you cannot rule out the possibility of a severe DP it the next two fed moves are upwards. Plus there are always some buyers that have to sell, high rates or not. Antidotal story, but I know a gal whose parents got her a house, and she took care of them until the end, and sh put that house on the market like the week before Christmas (like a dumbass). I think her ask was $420, and she got a $385 offer, and held firm without countering. Her folks had bought the house maybe 3 years ago for $400K and she had put in new appliances and countertops and new roof (storm). So that $420K number seemed reasonable. If she got that same $385K offer today she would not only counter, but would be a lot more flexible negotiating. For her it's found money, but she is willing to capitulate on price. Now she's not the norm, but she is an example of a seller willing to capitulate on price to move the property. Her agent of course was pissed. -
Longboard Horn's Thread for Restaurant Employee Hilarity
horn4life replied to DoobieWah's topic in Food and Travel
Of course not. Otherwise incompetence and not showing up would just the the cost of "maybe a manager can bang her in the future" business... -
As we complete assembly of the least qualified and most sycophantic cabinet ever assembled, I look at our government as a corporation. A large behemoth lumbering corporation, but ultimately results are driven by mission, and quality of execution. If I were investing in a corporation and they put in a board of directors like the Trump cabinet? I would short it. The good new is the Chairman of the board has a plan. He will cal the same folks he called the very best, the very brightest... morons and people of very low quality. Would you bet on the success of such an organization? I also happen to know that the last administration added a shit ton of debt and could not sustain the employment numbers they inherited from the Obama administration. Good luck finding a Republican that does not believe the exact opposite. While you can suspend reality in politics, I don't think you can suspend reality in the economy. Now I know the board room will be overflowing with praise no matter the results. I think we are going to have perhaps another 6 weeks before it's clear that inflation is surging. And you cannot scapegoat away economic reality. Add the monster debt bomb that the GOP pretends is not a debt bomb? And you have a recipe for something very, very bad to potentially happen economically. I hope like hell that the exuberance in the market is not as fickle as I think it is. And if I personally continue to lose money on by bets against the market I would be happy to lose more there if the economy can roar. But I see lots of inflationary policies, pettiness, and a general lack of results beyond bluster, from the current cabinet (outside Bessent). And while that may all work very well for television cameras. It tends to negatively impact the bottom line of most corporations.
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2021 - Is inflation finally back in the conversation?
horn4life replied to Reagan1k's topic in Business and Markets
Well at least we count on fiscal conservatism and deficit reduction to put downward pressure on the bond market. Maybe that will offset the proven inflationary results of tariffs? Now clean that coffee you just spit out off the table! -
Nancy Mace: Sexual assault survivor or cuckoo for Cocoa Puffs?
horn4life replied to C-Man's topic in Cloak Room
In fairness she would do legs, but three hours every morning to hit 85% on Wordle is a bit taxing... -
Nancy Mace: Sexual assault survivor or cuckoo for Cocoa Puffs?
horn4life replied to C-Man's topic in Cloak Room
Well it was smart for her to smear or report them on the house floor. So that she makes certain that there is no way for the woman who wants accountability to have any accountability for her actions. -
2021 - Is inflation finally back in the conversation?
horn4life replied to Reagan1k's topic in Business and Markets
Yeah, I was saying Sunday to another investor that just constantly talking about tariffs can bring anticipatory price rises. Either for additional profits sellers think are within reach. Or to ease prices up to cover future additional raw materials costs that would be impacted by the discussed trade. It was almost funny to see the political spin on CNBC by Rick Santoli and Joe Kerns dutifully saying it was silly to think any upwards creep could be anticipatory of stated Trump policies. And it was dishonest to do so. When right before the number came out, Joe was debating was this a Biden number or a Trump number... Then when it's bad... one of those options became an impossibility... My regret is that instead of making my hedge in UVIX so large, I would have pulled the trigger on that March $560 Tesla put for $150 my finger hovered over. -
All Encompassing Mortgage and Real Estate Thread
horn4life replied to UTPhil2006's topic in Business and Markets
I mean he is right in that on a graph housing has stabilized. He also said that even with lower rates the lack of supply will be an issue. Which to me indicated higher price stickiness? Thus a little bump for the builders today. -
All Encompassing Mortgage and Real Estate Thread
horn4life replied to UTPhil2006's topic in Business and Markets
Powell - "Housing has stabilized?" WTF. Stabilized in that as long as everyone keeps bailing madly the life boat may barely remain afloat? So does that mean Powell expects to see improving MMI numbers at these levels? Or that these levels are the acceptable levels? In his prepared remarks, but dang. -
What was weirdest to me about Kansas CIty was I was seeing red, green and white everywhere. And instead of Tex Mex it was tons of small Italian joints. And I should get some sort of gold star for linking Kansas and Chuy's! Chuy's closes Last Kansas Store
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2021 - Is inflation finally back in the conversation?
horn4life replied to Reagan1k's topic in Business and Markets
Well I'll take your bird flu, and raise you a potential pandemic like jump into the already reduced cattle population! New bird flu variant found in Cows in Nevada US herd is at 73 year low. I could post a bunch of links about the fears of how a lack of good inter-agency communication could hinder stopping outbreaks from last year's scare in Texas. I can't imagine the communication of agencies improved at the Fed level at this point, can you? IF this new variant spreads even a little you could see some severe upwards price pressure on beef. Which will encourage non-infected meat sources to edge their prices up as well. (if they think they can). Read about the small calf numbers in this link for greater clarity on the risk. https://www.fb.org/market-intel/u-s-cattle-inventory-smallest-in-73-years I will be fascinated to month over month inflation numbers at the end of Feb and March. Markets will shit a brick if that number moves upward. And you know that coffee, sugar, eggs, cocoa and lumber all markedly up in the last month. Not that there is not some good news downward, but to me a lot more news that could really being inflation back as a focus, especially if we have to start culling from the smallest US cattle herd in our lifetimes... -
I got pretty friendly with a DPS officer when I was down in Port A, after Harvey trying to help a friend how had recently had back surgery meet up with adjuster and contractors. I was like the only guy fishing on the beach, and the officer rolled up the first time when I was hooked up on a big red, and then twice when he drove up to say hi, I got a bite while we were talking. Anyhow he said that he and his wife had a retirement plan. They were going to tape a tortilla to their truck antenna and head North. The plan was than whenever somebody asked them that that was on their antenna they would put down roots and open a taco stand. I wonder if there is honestly anywhere in the US where you can't get a taco.
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Texas Recruiting Notes 2026: Boulevard of Broken Bagmen
horn4life replied to texifornia's topic in 🤫$9.95🤫
The problem for A&M They drop bag after fucking bag proving repetitively the stupidity of long term no cut contracts for Coaches with one decent season under their belts. In essence it does not matter how many Bags A&M drops. You can't buy your way out of stupid. -
Well... at least we never have to pretend Republicans have any principles at all.... So there's that! 😉
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