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gmr548

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Posts posted by gmr548

  1. 18 minutes ago, Ag with kids said:

    I did?

     

    Ah.

    Yeah.  Ok.

     

    Like I said earlier.  Go fuck yourself.  And your holier than thou bullshit attitude.

     

    I couldn't give 2 shits if, in your delusions, you think that you've actually defined me. You're wrong.

     

    I WILL tell you though, that the way you're treating me (which is how I assume you treat the rest of anyone that's a Republican) is part of the reason that he was elected and why he has strong support (not necessarily from me).

     

    It's like I posted in my first post on this thread...you can't keep calling someone a racist (or all the other pejoratives) and hope they'll come over to your views.  I know numerous people that were VERY lukewarm in their Trump support that have basically become very supportive due to the attacks.  Basically, it's a fuck you to the attackers.

     

    But, keep it up.  It's not working now, but I'm sure it'll work in the future.

     

     

     

    Then you know numerous grown adults that allow their politics to be based on petty emotion and coddling their own egos as opposed to objective reality and facts. In short, you know numerous morons.

    • Like 5
  2. I voted to reserve my right to see how this season plays out, but if that wasn't an option I'd have gone with "No." I guess it's possible that Saturday ends up being a complete and total aberration in what is otherwise viewed as a successful season in which the program makes its first meaningful progress in five years, but the trend lines aren't encouraging. I hung on a little too long with Strong, so maybe that is influencing my outlook here, but there was absolutely nothing on Saturday, even if we'd won the game, to indicate that this is even a B12 championship level staff.

    • Like 1
  3. You obviously make Gary Patterson say no. Don't go full aggy with a 10year /$75 million but a five/six year at or near the top of the salary totem pole nationally would be an enticing if he is interested.

    Personally I doubt he'd come. Assuming he says no, do the same for Chris Petersen. If he declines, I'd like to see Harsin or Fuente, preferring the latter. Of course, I say this knowing full well that Herman isn't going anywhere barring a catastrophic 4-8 kind of year, and even then it isn't a sure thing.

    • Like 2
  4. Probably laying the groundwork for some obfuscation on the issue...my best guess. 
    Repeat a lie enough and people believe it. Page one of GOP playbook.

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  5. I hesitate to even report this on a message board, but some conservative poster in my circle of FB friends has been very insistent with claims that Beto has taken PAC mone in this cycle. If proven true that could be much more harmful to his campaign than the details of his DWI. 
    That would be incredibly dumb for O'Rourke's campaign given all of that is publicly reported to the FEC. It is almost certainly not true for that reason. But that does not stop Republicans these days, if anything it encourages them.

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  6. Trump Wrong.gif 
    A lot of Texans are ok with how the state is run but hate DC/Ted enough that Abbott is going to win by 20 and Beto/Cruz will be a less than 5 point race in the end 
    Yup. The polls consistently show Abbott ahead by a mile and Cruz/Beto close to tied. They ask the same group of people both questions, every time. If Beto brings an unprecedented wave it'll probably help Valdez make the margin less embarrassing, but there are clearly plenty of Abbott/Beto voters. Does that make sense from a policy perspective? No, but politics isn't about policy.

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  7. 21 minutes ago, RayDog said:

    In the 26 largest counties with 75% of the voters Republicans won by 332,590 votes in 2012, but the Democrats won by 262,992 votes in 2016. The Libertarian vote increased by 161,147 votes at the same time representing potential swing voters. Statewide the Libertarian vote went up about 195,000. If you look at actual data Democrats have made inroads.

    In the 228 smaller counties the Republicans won by 929,129 votes in 2012 and 1070171 votes in 2016 a 141,042 improvement.

    Based on linearly extending the simple 2012 to 2016 trend and assuming a 60% midterm turnout for both parties the Democrats would win the big counties by 559,543 votes. A 60% decrease in smaller county turnout from 2016 would give the Republicans a 642,102 vote advantage there for a net win of 82,559 votes statewide. This is before factoring in what the swing Libertarian vote does, or if there is a blue wave, or that 10% of Republicans have abandoned the party, and many other bad trends for the Republicans.

    A recent poll put Cruz's support in rural areas at 66%, when the R advantage in the 228 smallest counties was 72.5% in 2012 and 74.6% in 2016. If Cruz only has 66% support in the 228 smallest counties, not all of which is rural by the way, he only wins them by 443,205, once again assuming a 60% turnout by both sides.

    I am starting to think there is a realistic possibility that Beto will have a 800,000 to a million vote advantage in the 26 biggest counties, and the rural vote will be unable to make up the difference. That comes to a 6 to 10 point win.

    I am hoping that this will lead the Democrats to victory in the Lt. Governor and Attorney General races, along with flipping 3-5 US congressional seats. It is regrettable that the Democrats failed to run a decent candidate for Governor, because Beto's blue wave might have pulled a good candidate across the line.

     

     

    I don't think it's safe to assume the progression will be linear. The margin from 2012 to 16 was cut in half (15 to 9 percent), and it was basically all because of Trump. As we've seen, not many people that voted Trump 16 are prone to changing their mind. Maybe some stay home, and yes, there is some degree of turnout surge coming from the big cities coupled with some flips in the suburbs. How big is impossible to say for sure but a swing in the ballpark of 750k is pretty massive... That is basically what separated Hillary and Trump in a Presidential year.

  8. haha.  that's all the Left has focused upon is the negative while spewing hatred and division.
     
    Texas would be bold not to succumb to the 'Liberal of the next campaign' program.
    God damn, y'all, imagine being this stupid.

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    • Like 1
    • Haha 1


  9. Bag of dicks aside, I applaud him if this is legit.  Everyone dreams of making millions then working at Home Depot, fluffer at a scrip club, or pouring beers at a bar.  You can only take so many naps on top of your piles of money before you want to suck 12 dicks out of sheer boredom.


    Fify



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  10. Anecdotal, but two older members of my family, both white, female, and in their 60s, and both having voted for Trump/against Hillary, have said they are voting for Beto.  One, because she hates Ted Cruz for not standing to Trump up for his wife more, the other because she's never liked Cruz.
    Again, anecdotal, but just odd as hell that both would openly tell me that.  I was expecting something along the lines of "I hate socialism, rawr! etc." parroting what Cruz says when he meets 50 people at the Lufkin Five-and-Dime.
    My mom is in that age group and voted for Trump. Typical level of casual racism for that age (build the wall, scapegoat the immigrants, etc), and is from the midwest and bought the whole pie in the sky bring the jobs back bit hook, line, and sinker. Also was on the lock her up train. Believes everything she reads on the web, which is a lot of fox and other propaganda. I love her, but she is a classic low info voter. We don't talk politics much because it's futile. To my surprise, she is really excited about Beto. I'm not even sure why, because I'm not sure she knows who Ted Cruz is. Maybe it's because of the Trump-Cruz feud during the campaign. Maybe it's just because he's not in power and she wants to stick it to the man. Who knows, but I'll take it.

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  11. To me, that appeared to be a planned line. It does not look off the cuff. It was a talking point he wanted to squeeze in, imo.
    Didn't watch that video TBH, but I have a hard time anyone would say something like that and not know what they were doing.

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    • Like 1
  12. https://www.washingtonpost.com/powerpost/desantis-says-florida-voters-would-monkey-this-up-if-they-elect-gillum-as-governor/2018/08/29/e4cbc5c6-ab96-11e8-8a0c-70b618c98d3c_story.html

    So he is either intentionally jumping into racially coded language immediately or is fucking stupid enough to think referring to a black candidate as "monkeying this up" isn't going to be interpreted as racially charged. Never change, Florida.

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  13. 1 minute ago, Texas73 said:

    I hope he can win in the general. He is a far left progressive endorsed by Bernie. I think he is great but this is in Florida.

     

    Yeah FL is pretty fucking Trumpy outside of Miami/south Florida. Tampa is basically 50/50 and Jacksonville is reliably R. Orlando area is fairly blue but isn't a really big chunk of the electorate or anything. Pretty much the rest of the state is Trumpland except for Tallahassee, which is not going to move the needle. As big as the D primary turnout was, R's have about 125k more votes. The Trumpkin candidate is over 900k. Trumpkin crowd probably isn't going to be very happy about a black socialist either. Hopefully AG can just run up the score in Miami-Dade and Broward by some ungodly margin but I'm skeptical.

  14. 46 minutes ago, Message Board User said:

     

    Can't lie - the fact that this is probably just the first of multiple massive money blitzes is a little disheartening and is definitely a bit of a reality check after such a big week. Texas is home to big numbers of exactly the kind of low info voters that the kinds of petty, negative, largely bullshit ads are meant to work on. That Dallas Observer article was right - if a voter out there doesn't know who Beto is by now, they are probably going to bite on ads like this.

    That said, I am glad he is feeling the heat. It's confirmation that this is working. That it's different. I chipped in another $25 (not shaggy surly 1%) tonight, and it only takes 39,999 like minded folks to do the same to hit seven figures. The campaign will need the resources, and as many have said throughout the campaign, making the Rs spend time and money to hold TX is already significant in in the grand scheme of things.

    • Like 4
  15. I honestly think people underestimate the power of peer pressure when it comes to politics.  So many people are called moderate when really they're just outsourcing their thinking to their neighbors.  If they see a bunch of W stickers in their neighborhood, they will vote Republican.  It will be interesting to see how many first time D voters will be casting those votes because of all the Beto signs they're seeing everywhere.
     
    I think the same thing happened with Trump signs, especially in traditionally D states like Michigan and Wisconsin.
    I think there's something to this. Events like bands/beers/whatever for Beto have become trendy social events for the younger crowd. Supporting him isn't just a political choice, it's the cool thing to do in the 30 and under age group. It's all over social media. I think that is definitely getting some younger folks in on things when they otherwise probably wouldn't be. Still have to get that crowd to the polls though.

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    • Like 2
  16. 3 minutes ago, chainsaw said:

    Crowd size estimates up in Corsicana?

    I'd guess 100 or so from the photo, could be more elsewhere. Coincidentally, based on photos that also appears to be the average age of attendees at Cruz events.

    • Like 1
  17. 1 minute ago, Chuckie Finster said:

    Bongino Election Scorecard:

    2012 - Lost Maryland Senate (General)

    2014 - Lost Maryland House (General)

    2016 - Lost Florida House (Primary)

     

    Cruz sure can pick 'em!

    He didn't lose, he just ran out of votes.

    • Like 1
    • Haha 1
  18. If Dems. stay unified,  maybe enough of Colyer's supporters make sure Orman takes enough votes to give Laura Kelly a plurality win.
    https://www.kansas.com/news/politics-government/article217385980.html
    After losing to Kobach, Colyer campaign chairman endorses Orman
     
    I can understand how hammering a longtime federal official on being a "Washington insider" makes sense and can whip up votes. Hammering someone for being a "Topeka insider" just sounds dumb as fuck.

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  19. DlnRwkLW4AARNbO.jpg:large
    This needs to be plastered all over the internet. The "my vote don't count" youth will see it's just ceding control to people who will be dead by the time we deal with problems they cause.

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