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Voldemort86

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Posts posted by Voldemort86

  1. 4 minutes ago, Js1 said:

    CBS reporting Ohio is on track for midterm 2022 turnout. That’s insane. If anything, the post-Trump election era is defined by high turnout (relative to US standards in the modern era) and engagement in off-years and midterms 

    Trump pissed dems off and turned them into great voters.  4 years of Trump just might have been worth it in the long run.

    • Rage+1 1
  2. 6 hours ago, Js1 said:

    Kemp schedules the redistricting special session for November 29.  The deadline is December 8.  I am very surprised it was that quick.

    Either the Georgia GOP knows it won't win a fight with SCOTUS over a VRA Section 2 issue and will just do what it was told to do or they'll do the Alabama "half-ass attempt to meet the requirements," get sued and got pee-pee whacked by SCOTUS and it ends up in someone else's hands.

    I like that Raffensperger is popular. Hell I’d vote the guy myself, but it freaking sucks that Kemp is popular.  Kemp is responsible for all sorts of shenanigans like passing laws making it illegal to give people water / food while waiting in line to vote or sending 100 voting machines to Republican counties and just 2 or 3 to counties that are predominantly minority.

    I fear Kemp could be the “Rick Scott” of Georgia.  First winning governor elections then going to the senate. Seems like Rick Scott will never go away. Kemp might not either.

    • Hook 'Em 1
  3. 17 hours ago, bolverk said:

    Distract, delay, deflect for 10 years. Oops! It's time for a new Census, and we're still in charge of drawing the map!

    Jesus

    Same tactic they’ve been doing ever since Obama has been in office. 

    Democrat :   We need to get this done. This done and this done.

    republican:  ok….. let’s talk about it and vote after recess.

     

    after recess and everyone comes back 

    democrats: hey we need to vote on this.

    republicans:  let’s wait until the new year and surprise Americans with a bill that inspires hope and change that they voted for.

     

    after new year 

    democrats :  let’s vote on that bill

    Republicans:  something came up. We need to debate “ something against minorities”

    that’s all they do when they don’t have power is play “rope a dope” until the time on the clock runs out or they get power in the situation then the issue conveniently disappears and isn’t talked about or debated anymore at all.

  4. 7 hours ago, Blotto said:

    The "dumb jock w/multiple kids out of wedlock" playbook was such a success for the party of family values in GA, they're gonna run it back in CA. At least Garvey possesses the youthful enthusiasm and clear understanding of the challenges facing americans today that only a 74 year-old, rich, white Trumptard can bring to the party. 

    https://www.espn.com/mlb/story/_/id/38623147/former-dodgers-padres-star-steve-garvey-joins-us-senate-race 

     

    The governator was the last republican who’s going to win statewide in California for a long ass time.  It doesn’t really matter who they run.

  5. 9 hours ago, Js1 said:

    If we are counting what could potentially happen:

    • Alabama - 1 new Dem seat confirmed with the new map
    • Louisiana - potentially 1 new Dem seat
    • South Carolina - potentially 1 new Dem seat
    • Florida - potentially 1 new Dem seat
    • Wisconsin - potentially 1 new Dem seat and 1 new purple seat
    • NC - potentially 3-4 new GOP seats depending on how aggressive they go, keeping in mind Elias and team will be ready to pounce if they try to violate any VRA sections and dismantle majority-minority districts, like Alabama
    • Ohio - decided not to mess with their maps
    • NY - this is still unclear if anything can actually happen to redraw the map, but would potentially wipe out the NC map

    And as we discussed, besides those potentially 5 new Dem seats to help Dems take back the majority, they have legit flip opportunities in 19 districts, which includes:

    • 2 in Arizona, where Trump lost in 2020 and there's a very competitive Senate race (1.5 and 0.1 points in Biden's favor) in a state becoming bluer by the day
    • 5 California seats, 3 of which were double-digit Biden districts and one was 7 points
    • 6 New York seats, of which 5 were 4.5 points or higher for Biden, including 2 double digit seats
    • 1 Oregon seat that Biden won by almost 9 points
    • 1 Virginia seat that Biden won by almost 2 points
    • 1 Pennsylvania seat that Biden won by almost 5 points
    • 1 Nebraska seat that Biden won by 6 points
    • 1 NJ seat that Biden won by 4 points

    Reps will target the 5 Dems who sit in Trump seats:

    • Mary Peltola (lol good luck, they love her in Alaska)
    • Jared Golden, who can probably hold that seat as long as he wants it 
    • Marcy Kaptur (was only a 2.9 Trump seat that she won by 13 points)
    • Matt Cartwright (was only a 2.9 Trump seat that he won by 2.4)
    • Marie Gulsenkamp Perez, where the GOP is yet again going to nominate the dumbass Trumper she beat, as the moderate Republican he beat in the primary has bowed out to run for a different office

    Current house is 221 R, 212 D and 2 vacancies that are split (RI-01, which is D+12 and UT-02, which is D+11), so call it 222, 213.  Dems need to flip 5 to take the majority.

    Thanks for this excellent summary. 
     

    my personal opinion is that Wisconsin and Louisiana are both looking very promising. South Carolina is still uncertain. As for Florida,  Desantis is god there and he seems to be unbeatable within state lines so I doubt they give the dems anything. 
     

    I wish the dems could find someone to try and rebuild the Florida Democratic Party. 

  6. 7 hours ago, The Dog said:

    Thanks - couldn't remember which of the Trump/Mitch appointees was the surprise vote.

    Can't help but wonder if Alabama's actions pissed them off.

    It should have. Alabama brazenly defied the courts and acted arrogant while redrawing their shitty maps.  They only gave the dems 40% and tried to fool everyone into thinking they’re complying while the Alabama governor even stated “ nobody knows Alabama better than our legislature and they need to be the ones drawing the maps for Alabamians”.

     

    give me a fucking break.

  7. 8 hours ago, Js1 said:

    Another map is coming up for challenges:

    Wisconsin Supreme Court DID vote to hear the case on the legality of the current maps, 4-3

    Justice Protasiewicz declines to recuse herself, cites Republican Party of Minnesota v. White and Justice Scalia that judicial candidates have a First Amendment right to have stated views on disputed legal and political issues when running for office. 

    Wisconsin Legislature will likely not impeach her - former Republican justice David Prosser, who is advising the Wisconsin Speaker on the legality of impeachmnet:

     

    Wisconsin republicans would be idiots to impeach her.  She just won by 10 points. Messing with Protasiewicz would probably end any chances they have of winning Wisconsin in 2024. People would be pissed and rightfully so. Wisconsin Republicans are just going to have to accept that they can no longer win 70% of the seats in the state house while winning only 45% of the statewide vote.

    • Hook 'Em 4
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    • Fuck Around and Find Out 2
  8. Republicans always try to pull the same stunt.

    if they have the power and will to do something, they will jam it down people’s throats.

    if they don’t have the power, but either want or don’t want something to happen, they play the “ let’s talk” card until the next election, or the one after that, while hoping something else comes up to take attention away from the issue.

    • Hook 'Em 3
    • Like 1
  9. Anyone else read the article that described Lewandowski’s pursuit of Trashelle?
     

    The guy pretty much shoots his shot over and over 50 times with a bunch of Trump talk mixed in until these conservative women get exasperated and say yes. I hate Lewandowski but he definitely doesn’t seem to be lacking in the confidence department.

    • Like 1
  10. This is playing out as expected.  Didn’t think there was a chance in hell Alabama would get that shitty map to pass the smell test. They are going to have to give the African Americans 2 districts.

    We should hopefully see the same thing play out in Louisiana, Florida, South Carolina, and possibly Texas / Tennessee.

     

    fuck extreme gerrymandering.

    • Hook 'Em 1
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