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Voldemort86

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Posts posted by Voldemort86

  1. 7 hours ago, gmr548 said:

    This is the map as it stands to me and honestly it is going to take a significant change in economic fundamentals or a major black swan event to change it. I think the only real hot take is I think NC is another legitimate tossup. Continues to be a leader inward migration and it's more of the garden variety HCOL market professional relocating than being a MAGA beacon like TX or FL.

    The economic fundamentals actually scream comfortable Biden reelection, but we're in a very polarized environment, he got caught holding the bag on inflation, the impossible Israel-Palestine situation is flaring up, and he's 117 years old. People really hate Donald Trump though and I buy that the electorate will start to remember that more intensely as he gets more media coverage and it becomes crystal clear to the average American that we're running it back.

    160mm voters and it probably comes down to < 100k aggregate votes in a few of these tossup states again. Democracy!

    DgnRp.png

    I really really don’t  like Trumps chances in Pennsylvania, Michigan, and Wisconsin.
     

    As for Arizona,  the GOP haven’t been able to win seemingly anything since they shit on John McCain. They are unbelievably incompetent.

    as for Georgia, Biden only won it by 10k and it seems to be gop at heart. I just have a feeling that it might snap back to the GOP this time before demographics start to turn that state more blue. 
     

    seems like the democrats always fuck up in North Carolina. Things look good. We get excited and then…..disappointment

    Same story for the GOP with Nevada tho.

  2. 7 hours ago, BamaATL said:

    Just a guess but if you note the peak decline in coincides with the great recession (no work available) lagging just a bit, and then picks back up accordingly.

    Though, the troubles in Venezuela are very real.  

    2008-2015 was probably the worst time in history to try and find a job. I remember I was in college and asked about getting a job at GameStop and they showed me 100 applications in the drawer and I said never mind.

  3. 10 hours ago, FirstTimeCaller said:

    Yeah, I think this is accurate. I get the feeling he's going to go even deeper into the culture war stuff.

    Conservatives who celebrate his agenda and accomplishments are idiots. Any governor can ram just about any policy thru with the super majorities he has.  It’s like a varsity team celebrating being able to run the ball all over a team of 7th graders.

  4. 11 minutes ago, tx 3 putt said:

     

    lot of FL R's turned their back on him. he's going to be out for revenge 

    plus he's going to lose the diseny lawsuit

    He’s going to take out his frustrations on that poor state and he’s a mightily frustrated dude. We might see shit like the great gatsby and Tom Sawyer banned in Florida soon. Who knows how crazy Desantis can get.

  5. 4 minutes ago, TeeDubya said:

    What is the status of that putz-wipe coward Hawley in Missouri?  Is he going to win?

    Unfortunately he’s safe. After he beat mccaskill, he probably won’t see a close race again.  Missouri has gotten redder and redder over time.

    • Rage+1 1
  6. 16 hours ago, HRSchenker said:

    Years ago I turned down an offer to meet up with the Sons of the American Revolution because it was being held in a conference room of a local nursing home. There's definitely no way I'm meeting up with a congressional candidate at a fucking funeral home. 

    GEaKIvaW4AAXP-l.jpg

    Hosted by folks with the last name Slay and event taking place in a funeral home?  GOP is so weird.

  7. 4 minutes ago, Blotto said:

    Desantis couldnt even make it a week longer than Vivek. Trump destroyed that little bitch Ron without even having to really even acknowledge him. No new nicknames. No making him tongue his ass on live TV, while Casey worked the front side. Nothing. Desantis is such a fucking loser he torpedoed himself. Haley wont be far behind. The only thing I was looking forward to in this whole shitshow of an election season was GQP primary comedy, and we're getting none of it. This is bullshit, I feel cheated.

    Will there be a Trump vs Haley debate now that Desantis dropped out?

  8. 1 hour ago, atomheartbevo said:

    It’s possible.  I’m still shocked Trump barely squeaked out 50%.

    Nikki is running for 2028.  Ron is running for…Casey.

    The good news for Biden is that Trump will go hard at Nikki and Ron’ and trash them and their supporters as RINOs. That’ll leave a mark that doesn’t scrub away easily. There’s already been Nikki and Ron supporters who were on CNN, etc. and then got trashed by MAGA on their social media accounts, and it’ll only get worse.

    Casey desantis’s nickname is Walmart Barbie right?

  9. 2 hours ago, Js1 said:

    Well the LA Senate didn't care about Mike Johnson being a bitch.  Passed the Senate 27-11 and heads to the LA House. 

    It is going to be the map. 

    Don’t get what Mike Johnson was thinking here.  We all saw what happened in Alabama. The LA Republican governor supports the new map. They would lose in court anyway.

    Johnson was probably better off staying quiet and cutting his losses because now he just looks like an idiot.

  10. 45 minutes ago, BamaATL said:

    I will say this, I hope she does well in New Hampshire because the longer they have multiple candidates in the race, the longer it splits the donor money.  I read that they collectively spent $124 million in Iowa, that's war chest money down the drain infighting.  With a good enough performance in New Hampshire, that keeps her in at least until Super Tuesday.  If her, Ron, and he who shall not be named wind up in a dead heat in New Hampshire, all the better.  

    Totally agree.  I’m starting to worry that this could end before Super Tuesday which would really suck. Need to at least keep Trump off Biden until March.

  11. 28 minutes ago, BehoId, The Underminer! said:

    On a scale of low numbers don’t matter because virtual incumbency to low numbers means no enthusiasm, I’ve talked myself into the latter.  These candidates poured record amounts into this and clearly told their supporters they expect them to come out.  Nothing on the ground was telling people to rest because it is foregone conclusion.  This people were inundated with ads pleading them to come out.  I think it matters. 

    I’m hoping NH turnout is significantly lower than 2016 as well.  Then we’re definitely onto something.

    • Hook 'Em 2
  12. This is what some repubs are saying now that it looks like Trump will get the nomination.

    Quote

    the oldest voters from 2020 have died especially from COVID

    now, you will have a vast cohort of first time voters who were 10 years old when Trump took office. anyone think those are going to vote Trump by a majority!?!

    add in Biden already has the largest war chest of money ever raised, and trump will not be getting mass amounts of big donor cash and money from DeSantis supporters.

    GOP will lose the House and likely not gain the Senate as well with Trump at the top of the ticket. but at least they have good parties at Mar A Lago!

     

  13. 14 minutes ago, BamaATL said:

    Georgia is still facing another legal challenge, but this won't matter in terms of 2024.  I still think there is a very good chance the court approved map is overturned on appeal, but in all likelihood won't impact this year.  It's still a screw job.  

    Good thing Georgia is trending Blue. I’m hoping repubs can’t win there anymore by 2028

    • Hook 'Em 1
  14. 2 hours ago, cactusflinthead said:

    Interesting development in Louisiana

    And a reply

     

    Cajuns knew they were going to lose like Alabama did and are just biting the bullet. Fine with me. Of all the court cases, I was most optimistic about Alabama and Louisiana. Their maps were both extremely obvious racist screw jobs. 
     

    Florida ended up being a loss because democrats have done so poorly in the state since Obama left. Repubs controlled literally all levers of power. Georgia was able to simply tweak their map without giving up any seats. I don’t think we will see anything come out of the remaining South Carolina / Texas lawsuits.

    • Hook 'Em 1
  15. 6 minutes ago, South Austin said:

    I’m amazed that our country as a whole still gives a shit about Iowa. And I’m not just talking about last night’s caucuses.

    It probably helped that it’s below freezing nearly all over the country and the caucus was on a Monday night. Lots of folks probably had nothing to do but try to  stay warm and watch the shit show.

  16. 7 minutes ago, gmr548 said:

    Weather or no weather, noncompetitive primaries/caucuses always have low turnout. Honestly, it can just as reasonably be framed as an accomplishment to get almost as many voters out as you did in 2016 in a negative 12 billion degree snowstorm to vote in a race that's already decided. I really would not spike the football over primary turnout.

    I hope bama is right. Hopefully a big chunk of his base died due to old age or covid. Would make elections easier to win.

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