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2300 Nueces

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Posts posted by 2300 Nueces

  1. Honestly, the only hope Texas has of making the playoff is to recruit lights out.  We haven't had a coach that can adequately develop talent since Darrell Royal so we have to win on talent alone, a la Vince Young.  Once the recruiting slips, it's lights out.  I think Herman signed his pink slip with the birdie to the camera.

    • Like 1
  2. 11 hours ago, camel at sea said:

    I don't think it's a coincidence that the media articles being floated have the CA schools splitting.  It seems pretty obvious from the outside that the crux of the PAC's internal issues are between the Bay Area leadership (i.e. Stanford) and the football schools that generate the money for the conference (SC, Oregon, etc.)  So if that's where the relationship breakdown exists, then it makes some sense that you'd see SC splitting with Stanford.  

    And from there, the chips fall where they may.  

    Obviously there's time to get the PAC's issues worked out.  But that's been the case for years and that hasn't happened yet.  The clock is really beginning to tick.



     

    I remember recently Stanford complaining that Texas was doing "something" that they were very unhappy about.  I would assume that Stanford is a big issue when dealing with the PAC.  They are the snobs of snobs.  I would not want them at all.  Give me CU and Utah over Cal and Stanford.

  3. 6 minutes ago, SimonBolivar said:

    I've been looking for a reason to stop wasting all those Saturdays in the fall like I have for the last 30 years. If I can't watch Air Force play Michigan State at 11AM on a random Saturday in early October because they wanted to create a AAA for the NFL then I'll finally be able to stop pretending like it already isn't a AAA for the NFL.

    The student athlete "model" was gone awhile ago.  We are going to see some interesting developments moving forward.  Some good and some sad.  I say sad because some things are familiar and I like them but not needed and are outdated.

  4. 13 minutes ago, Hurtlocker said:

    I highly doubt you'll see many of the Power Five shutter because of this.   Football and men's basketball is like a marketing expense at the end of the day, and a cheap one at that for billion dollar institutions.  It may change some things, but the US quickly forgets and goes back to normal once the situation is over.

     

    If there is any deviation from revenue projections, there will be serious problems in college football.  I would think that the NFL would be feeling some serious pain as well.  I would love to see the current cancellations of season ticket packages.   I think you are being too optimistic.  This will trim the number of teams as well as put many teams that were sufficient into the red.

  5. 21 minutes ago, Hurtlocker said:

    Little fun with numbers.   Here's the latest from the USAToday Database, comparing the Pac 12 with the Big 12 on several financial categories (USC/Stanford/TCU/Baylor not included due to being private:

    Big 12/Pac 12  2017-18 Finances              
    Revenue Rank School Conference Revenue Expenses Profit School Support % Support Profit After Support
    7 Oklahoma Big 12 $175,325,500 $152,674,475 $22,651,025 $0 0.00% $22,651,025
    1 Texas Big 12 $219,402,579 $206,554,432 $12,848,147 $0 0.00% $12,848,147
    50 Kansas State Big 12 $86,911,309 $77,633,258 $9,278,051 $350,000 0.40% $8,928,051
    37 West Virginia Big 12 $102,684,423 $91,807,281 $10,877,142 $4,107,003 4.00% $6,770,139
    26 Oregon Pac-12 $122,541,827 $119,811,239 $2,730,588 $240,598 0.20% $2,489,990
    22 Washington Pac-12 $130,919,331 $126,133,008 $4,786,323 $3,834,746 2.93% $951,577
    33 Kansas Big 12 $106,307,326 $104,108,072 $2,199,254 $1,804,397 1.70% $394,857
    48 Oklahoma State Big 12 $88,516,367 $88,228,667 $287,700 $89,466 0.10% $198,234
    47 Iowa State Big 12 $88,753,664 $88,670,048 $83,616 $2,093,104 2.36% ($2,009,488)
    21 UCLA Pac-12 $130,960,560 $130,960,560 $0 $2,608,165 1.99% ($2,608,165)
    46 Texas Tech Big 12 $89,259,783 $88,948,721 $311,062 $3,334,854 3.74% ($3,023,792)
    43 Utah Pac-12 $91,386,593 $87,578,834 $3,807,759 $12,374,118 13.54% ($8,566,359)
    45 Colorado Pac-12 $89,581,544 $89,826,611 ($245,067) $12,338,945 13.77% ($12,584,012)
    53 Washington State Pac-12 $65,117,715 $73,775,035 ($8,657,320) $5,337,518 8.20% ($13,994,838)
    51 Oregon State Pac-12 $80,712,000 $88,600,330 ($7,888,330) $9,763,192 12.10% ($17,651,522)
    44 California Pac-12 $91,247,489 $110,558,630 ($19,311,141) $0 0.00% ($19,311,141)
    41 Arizona Pac-12 $95,867,717 $103,329,464 ($7,461,747) $12,463,914 13.00% ($19,925,661)
    29 Arizona State Pac-12 $113,636,755 $126,782,387 ($13,145,632) $20,611,739 18.14% ($33,757,371)

     

     

    Big 12 Average     $119,645,119 $112,328,119 $7,317,000 $1,472,353 1.54% $5,844,647
    Pac 12 Average     $101,197,153 $105,735,610 ($4,538,457) $7,957,294 8.39% ($12,495,750)
    Pac 12 v Big 12  Difference   ($18,447,966) ($6,592,509) ($11,855,456) $6,484,941 6.85% ($18,340,397)

    The top half of the Pac 12 has more in common with the bottom half of the Big 12.   So what if the Big 12 took the top half of the Pac 12 to make the Big 16?

    Big 16 Average     $117,119,293 $111,764,247 $5,355,046 $3,321,184 3.44% $2,033,862
    Remaining Average     $89,316,335 $100,609,169 ($11,292,834) $9,635,273 10.29% ($20,928,107)
    Remaining vs Big 16  Difference   ($27,802,958) ($11,155,077) ($16,647,880) $6,314,088 6.85% ($22,961,968)

    Absorbing the top half (minus private schools in the calcs obviously) basically leaves the Big 12's averages the same, which is a pretty good add.   Ironically, this would not be the Arizona schools that everyone talks about.   Instead its USC, Washington, Oregon, UCLA, Utah, and Colorado.   Which, while ceding Phoenix, isn't the worst add in the world.

    Why are Texas' Expenses so high?  Debt service or a bloated Belmont Hall?

  6. 19 hours ago, TeddyBearStallion said:

    Are you implying that the Big 12 provides competent administrative leadership? LOL

    They would need to dump off the dead weight and promote programs of value in order to make it viable.  

    So you're for firing CDC?  CDC is the real head of the Big 12.  Was it Bowlsby or Texas that sent out feelers to 7 Pac schools?

  7. 1 hour ago, Al_4_ISU said:

    I don't think the Pac is going to come to the Big 12 to save them.  I just think that if there are any changes among league membership between said leagues, it will be Pac schools going east, and not vice versa, because the Pac 12 has nothing to offer anyone in the Big 12.

    I think the only way ISU would leave is if we had to (IE everything was crumbling again and we had a life boat).  ISU fans and admins want to continue to play as many of our historic opponents as possible.  The Big 8/original Big 12 was the best fit for ISU as Iowa is more of a Plains state than a Rust Belt state, and those were all close road trips.  The only way I'd want to see ISU anywhere else is if the whole thing was blowing up, and we were moving with other Big 8 schools.

    I think the Pac does have something to offer the B12.  They have some historic programs that have been run into the ground.  A takeover by the B12 will breathe life into these programs by offering legitimate administrative leadership which will improve their play and ratings which will be a revenue + for all.  They need to shed the leadership currently turning them into the Ivy League.

    • Like 1
  8. 30 minutes ago, notre dame joe said:

    the PAC has a ton of money, it's just not in Athletics.  When the silicon valley folks are old enough to think about building monuments honoring themselves, their only logical choice is at PAC Universities; who 40 years later will protest and rename said monuments. 

    How does this relate to selling widgets?  It's all about advertising.  No one watches Stanford and Cal.  If I want to see a doco about Bill Gates, I'll watch the history channel.  Texas is crazy for not going to the SEC.  I can't stand this elitist snobbery.

  9. The PAC has been completely mismanaged.  It doesn't matter the name on the sign.  In the real world, losers get divided and consumed.  If they want to hang out as academic institutions, great.  They won't be hanging around in Power 4 football in a few years.  Most of the schools in the PAC are on par with Rice.  Rice is a great school but not for football.  The PAC, if it stays intact without changes, will be earning the same revenue as the AAC schools.  The PAC is ripe for a hostile takeover.

    • Like 5
  10. 13 minutes ago, Rusty Shackelford said:

    Stupid question regarding this situation:

    https://www.msn.com/en-us/finance/markets/mortgage-bankers-ask-sec-to-save-them-from-margin-call-surge/ar-BB11SCJb

    If brokers got what they want and know that the Fed is going to buy MBS out the ass, why are they still hedging/shorting MBS?

    Gotta shear the last bit of wool on those shorts, duh.  Right after they sheared them on the long side.  It's Spring after all.

  11. Losers: anyone who ever wanted anonymity in their personal lives.  The Federal Reserve Bank just snuck legislation into the "Corona Virus" panic package that creates a new currency.  You will all now be tracked in everything you do.

     

    Winner:  Federal Reserve Bank. (It's a private cartel, not a part of our government.)  All our info and everything we do will be owned by the Fed.

     

    New Blockchain E Dollar

  12. I posted this on an Oregon site discussing realignment.

     

     

    Would it be possible to join all the teams in the Big 12 and pac 12 for a total of 22 teams and add BYU, Cincinatti, or Memphis? That would total 24 teams.... Would it be feasible to allow for an incentive payout system in tiers? More eyeballs=more TV money, etc.... The teams in smaller markets would not turn down the opportunity to stay in this conference while the teams with more eyeballs would make a larger %. Allow for a wild west tier 3 which would allow for team channels, etc... like ESPN+.

    Set the structure as 4 6 team pods that would play regional conference schedules with 2-3 out of pod conference games. There could be a conference playoff of the 4 pod winners which would greatly increase the SOS of the overall winner which would ensure at least one team into the final 4 team playoff. This would also bring in considerably more eyeballs on the conference playoff. I would hate to dump some of these proven programs and rivalries. I am a Texas fan btw.

    Pods:

    NW: Wash, Wash St, Oregon, Or St, Utah, BYU
    SW: USC, UCLA, Az, Az St, Cal, Stanford
    SE: Tex, Tex Tech, BU, TCU, OK St, Oklahoma
    NE: KU, K st, Colo, Iowa St, Cincinnati, WVU

    These pods would retain natural rivalries while mixing in 2-3 new (or old) conference match ups each year.

    Play: Rotate pods by scheduling a different pod each year. Playoff would be against a pod that was not that year's matched pod ensuring that the playoff would not be a rematch of any game from regular season. Chance of championship being a rematch would be relatively low.

  13.  
  14. 3 hours ago, Hurtlocker said:

    I can't find the old article on this, but I believe this was even back in the Bebee days.   The idea was go to market together, package two conference races like normal, then add in a beefed up schedule with a scheduling alliance.   I think it ended up failing for a couple reasons, first was that there wasn't the stomach for a harder schedule in the BCS days, the Pac and B1G didn't pull the trigger on a scheduling alliance either.   The SEC schedule today is still the way to game that system.  The second was, at the time, the idea of conference channels were just picking up with the Big Ten showing how to do it (ironically with the plan pitched to the Big 12 and turned down by them first).   With the Big 12 having no appetite for a conference channel and the Pac wanting one, they needed more content.  That led to the Pac trying to jump to 16, to get more content, and to also try and snag the Big 12's guaranteed BCS bid, giving the larger conference two of them.

    Obviously it all fell apart, but it was all about the same few years and interrelated. 

    At this point the Big12 may be looking at the PAC as a bad investment.  Unforturnaley adding Pac teams may decrease the TV payout per school. The Big 12 needs to move when the Pac is at "fire sale" lows.  That may be during the next season, if we have a season.  Then push the incentive agreement to get some of these programs to appeal to the millions of people in their states.  Maybe trucking in some okie inbreds talking a lot of crap will be just what the doctor ordered.

  15. 50 minutes ago, Hurtlocker said:

    They were actually discussing this prior to the last round of realignment.   A joint rights deal between the two conferences was going to be worth bank.   And that was like 2012.

    Looks like they are down the road.  I wonder what the snags are?  I recall hearing that Stanford was not happy with some of our "proposals" or some such.  Personally, I don't care for Stanford.  Sounds like a decent rivalry in the making.

  16. A first step might be to schedule games between the Big 12 and Pac 12.  The goal would be to have a team or 2 (pipe dream) that would qualify continually for the 4 team playoff at the end of the season due to the strength of schedule.

    1.  Schedule Pac champion vs Big 12 Champion.

    2. Begin to integrate schedules.

    3. Look for 2 teams to add.  Preferably a team or 2 closer to WVU. Cincinnati, Memphis, Pitt, Missouri, BYU would be a no brainer.

    4. Come up with an incentive laden contract that rewards teams for "eyeballs"/winning.  Allow tier 3 to be a wild west.  Allow teams to have their own network.

    5. An incentive laden contract would be optimal.  Tell the lesser schools to take it or leave it.  To leave it would mean they join Cougar High.  I prefer the pay for performance over the equal share deal.  This will allow the larger schools to compete with the SEC and B1G contracts without having to join those leagues.  Over time it will force the lesser schools to have to perform and survive on less.  They will become competitive while the lesser in the SEC and B1G become lazy.

     

    **** The baseline TV money is going to have to be close to the SEC and B1G.  This will be the deciding factor on whether is this possible.

  17. On 3/27/2020 at 2:59 PM, JWinTX said:

    WVU will find a place at the table, I bet--still think the ACC or SEC will take them. But Baylor, TCU, and Iowa State are totally about to get dropped backwards--possibly KSU, too.

    Still think the powers that be want the Pac-16/18 to happen--getting the Texoma 4 or the Texomakan 6 would make a lot sense for the networks and bowls. I still see three pods of 6 being setup--Pac 12 North (WSU, Washington, OSU, Oregon, Stanford, Cal) Pac-12 Southwest (USC, UCLA, ASU, Arizona, Tech, UT), and the Pac-12 Midwest (Utah, CU, KSU, KU, OU, and OSU). Play your 5 pod teams, plus 2 from the other pods each, but keep rivalries together annually (UT-OU, USC-Stanford, UCLA-Cal, OSU-Tech, for example). 

    Conference championship game is between the two highest rated division winners.

    In hoops and baseball, you'd play your pod teams home-and-home every year, then play three teams from the other pods each year, rotating those teams out every two years.

    Solid format, although BU, TCU, and KSU are solid programs.  I would rather go to 24 with 4 6 team pods.  This gets a bit unwieldy but a 4 team playoff would decide the champion and bring some continuity/stabilty to the big12 and pac.  The champion with a solid SOS would be ensured a final 4 playoff spot.  Could rotate pod play/playoff matchups, etc... for a single conf championship which would jive with current OOC format and conf schedules.  Would ensure that networks get the best match ups by having their choice among all the scheduled games.  Otherwise put the games on an ESPN+ format.  Same with non football sports.

     

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