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quigley

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Posts posted by quigley

  1. 3 hours ago, Satchel said:

    Very much agree. He would be an excellent Press secretary but much of his talent would be under utilized in that position. 
    Clay Jenkins for HUD secretary.

    Agree about Pete.

    Why Clay Jenkins?

  2. 4 hours ago, RexWilson said:

    If GA goes blue, I would think Abrams has earned herself a spot. Not sure where. Has a legal background and state level political experience.

    She's earned a spot regardless of the outcome because she's bootstrapped GA purple while other states with similar or better demographics are still red (FL, NC, TX).

    She's among the most talented politicians in America. She's as quick as Buttigieg and can build a coalition.

    While she's done MORE THAN ENOUGH to earn a spot in the Cabinet, sadly, that may be her cap because of bigotry.

  3. 17 minutes ago, Nice Guy Eddie said:

    If Biden wins GA, then it looks like Ossoff goes to a run off.

    Having Warnock and that q-seeking nut both go to Congress in the same year from the same state would define the poles of American politics.

    That said, unfortunately, I don't think either Warnock or Ossoff win runoffs.

  4. 48 minutes ago, cactusflinthead said:

     

    I'm glad he won.

    But if Gary Peters had a pet rock, could we tell the difference between the rock and its owner?

    Dem need to find a different brand of candidate in the B1G region.

  5. 46 minutes ago, RayDog said:

    Most of the Aussies I have met are Trumpers and would happily join the Republican terrorists. Unfortunately it is mostly low class Aussies where I live.

    Your sample is skewed. While there is a gun-loving, climate change-denying population there, Aussies in general are appalled at the US handling of Covid and that's dominating discussion at this point.

  6. 30 minutes ago, ShaggyBevo RIP said:

    Add to that that Millennials supplanted Boomers as the largest demographic post 2018.

    I wish this were the case. Essentially Boomers = GenX = Millennials. Because olds turn out more, we'll probably have to wait four more years before it flips.

    From Pew:

    1594688351_Votersbyage.thumb.png.f3f4db0abb07a7d702b5b532c4582384.png

  7. 49 minutes ago, Nice Guy Eddie said:

    Potential flaws

    • Biden should overperform Beto in the Valley (11), who did not like Beto. 
    • Will the smaller population regions have any Biden shift from Beto?  If they go 0%, then Biden needs the 4 large regions to all have a 2.7% shift to tie the race.
    • No surprise but a tie requires a continued left shift. Trump love/hatred was already baked into the 2018 totals so perhaps there will be a 0 shift or even a red shift.

     

    Good stuff!

     

    Biden should overperform Beto in the Valley (11), who did not like Beto.

    I don't understand the wording here. Do you expect Biden to outperform Beto or vice versa?

    Will the smaller population regions have any Biden shift from Beto?  If they go 0%, then Biden needs the 4 large regions to all have a 2.7% shift to tie the race. No surprise but a tie requires a continued left shift. Trump love/hatred was already baked into the 2018 totals so perhaps there will be a 0 shift or even a red shift.

    While you're correct, the feelings about the current administration were present in 2018, there are two obviousfactors that could push the shift from red to blue further:

    1. Mid-terms are usually redder than prez elections.

    2. Covid further energizing the anti-prez feelings, even from people who're part of his typical core group, old white folk.

  8. 13 minutes ago, Neonmoon said:

    Right wingers have been buying up local news outlets for years to control the message 

    RE: Pittsburgh PG

    from wikipedia:

    "In 2018, the editorial tone of the paper shifted from liberal to conservative after the editorial pages of the paper were consolidated with the The Blade of Toledo, Ohio. After the consolidation, Keith Burris, the pro-Trump editorial page editor of The Blade, directed he editorial pages of both papers."

  9. 8 minutes ago, TexEx15 said:

    I keep coming back to the question if not now, when?  Turnout is the key to turning Texas blue and I’m not sure there will be another candidate/incumbent that will drive opposition turnout in Texas as much as trump has this year.  Cautiously optimistic.

    Two other variables: increase in voting age Latinos and a Latino candidate who's palatable to White people. A coalition of minorities and college-educated Whites requires the minority voters to actually show up.

    I don't live in TX any longer, but Lina Hidalgo seems promising. What do you think about her?

  10. 2 minutes ago, Goredho said:

    What are the odds the number of people killed at a polling location on Tuesday is greater than zero?

    What the fuck have we become that this is a legit question?

    The question I have is "in how many states?" I'm guessing "proud boys" from the West coast travel down to AZ and NV. TX, MI, and PA have enough of their own well-armed loons.

  11. 11 minutes ago, Mrs Whiggins said:

    Missed this in the news dump of the weekend. I didn't vote for Bernie (second choice if we ranked) but the candidates are putting in work on all fronts: speaking, writing, interviewing, and phone banking, and I thank each and every one of them. LFG America.

     

    I wish we'd heard more about Bernie's operation continuing to work to get Latino vote out. His field organization had apparently made substantive inroads in AZ and NV. That would have paid dividends this year and in the future.

  12. 29 minutes ago, Bateshorn said:

    WaPo had Trump at +4 in Florida in late September before the first debate.  It’s a pink state that is pulling weird demographics.  Either Biden cuts into TrUmp’s 2016 margins with seniors enough to win or he doesn’t .  Either way, any Democrat that was betting on Florida man is a fool. 

    The hope after 2018 was that the felony voting reform would start to enfranchise a significant percent of the population (7% of FL has a felony conviction, 1.6m out of 21m).

    The courts have so far blocked the implementation of the people's will.

  13. 10 hours ago, Seasick Sailor said:

     

    This is correct.

    Seltzer is an empiricist. She has her method and her data and doesn't look at anyone else. I very much respect this.  That said, if the data is bad, the results will be off.

    Also, let's be clear, Iowa is a luxury for the presidential and likely senate results. The implications of a big Iowa win for the current prez and what it augurs are the issue. Iowa +7 in 2020 still means a 3% shift to Biden and that'll be enough to win Michigan, Wisconsin, and Pennsylvania. If no fraud.

  14. 7 hours ago, Storm the Field said:

    A fraternity brother of mine, used to be quite good friends with, used to frequently go to Astros games together...etc. Haven't seen him much in the last 2 years, but still see his social media posts.

    Got laid off from his O&G job 6 months ago and spends all day now on Twitter, soaking up Q-Anon brain poison and texting people with links to really obscure conspiracy shit. He tweeted out his prediction map yesterday:

    Trump 380+. Flips NV, NH, VA, MN, NH, ME, NY, CT and NJ. CA Toss-up. GOP adds at least 5 Senate seats and House majority is GOP +20. 

    I just can't even fathom the delusion. Genuinely concerned for the guy.

    The REALLY concerning thing is, if Biden wins, these people will then believe the election was stolen from the current prez. The disconnect from reality may spark violence from some of the more disaffected of the MAGA crowd.

  15. 23 minutes ago, atomheartbevo said:

    There's a whole lore more to it than that.   The Dems have certainly fucked up their messaging in the modern era, but the Republicans have also catered to certain audiences, and they have reinforced/cultivated certain cultural viewpoints or attitudes, to the detriment of their followers.  It's ironic, because the Dems ran Texas and Oklahoma and other parts of the South for many decades, by appealing to the blue-collar/rural folks.  Rick Perry, Phil Gramm, and others that switched to the GOP later on, they didn't build their power bases while they were Democrats out of the big cities, but instead built their power bases out of the rural areas.

    Remember when George W. Bush ran against Kent Hance back in the late 70s out in West Texas?  Hance, the Democrat (at the time, he would later switch in the 80s), had the good ole boy image and was able to portray Bush as a fast-talking city slicker from back East, educated at an Ivy League school, while Hance was educated at Texas Tech and UT - 

    https://archive.nytimes.com/www.nytimes.com/library/politics/camp/072700wh-bush-lubbock.html

    Fast-forward to the '94, Bush was still a fast-talking guy who would toss out all kinds of facts and figures

    And then jump to 2000, and all of the sudden, there is a dramatic shift, and he's a good ole boy, talking slower than he used to, acting folksy , etc.

    There's a lot going on, and the GOP is damned lucky that the Dems have lost their way when it comes to appealing to the rural folks.

    Your history lesson neglects the important fact that Dems became the party of civil rights in the 1960s and 1970s. A lot of rural folk, who I grew up with in OK, didn't like that too much and switched parties. The Reagan landslide in 80 is the dividing line.

  16. 20 hours ago, Planet Houston said:

    Why’s that? TV and radio ads can’t be bought between now and Tuesday? That seems unlikely. 

    Osoff's got a ton of money. Raising cash isn't the problem. Partisan inelasticity of the GA electorate is the issue.

    • Hook 'Em 1
  17. 11 hours ago, golfclap said:

    EJNO and Stacey Wilkins are bros all the way back to their commit vids if I remember correctly and both have opted out at OU. I could see them end up as a pkg deal despite Wilkins telling everyone right now that he's not leaving OU only trying to get stronger in his upper body. 

    EJNO is supposedly really smart and had the potential to be a leader. Wilkins, at least physically, appears ideal for at OT. It he leaves, it would be a loss.

    Both were passed on the depth chart by true freshman. I wonder if this isn't a Covid-related lack of conditioning thing.

    • Hook 'Em 1
  18. 16 minutes ago, Neonmoon said:

    Of course every Trump judge is going to be dumber than pigshit

    I don't like their rulings, but the judges themselves aren't dumb.

    They're even worse. They are goons who allow themselves to be useful idiots to maintain a decrepit ruling class.

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