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BehoId, The Underminer!

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Everything posted by BehoId, The Underminer!

  1. This feels like when Beard got fired. Allegations started coming out. I said "wow, I don't know if he makes it through the week . . ." Then 15 minutes later he was fired. ". . . I mean hour."
  2. what do you think you're going to prove here.
  3. well damn. i think vance is a smart pick by trump
  4. also, this is a good reason to hand the reins off too. biden-specific attacks.
  5. it'd be really cool. four months of showing she can do it, four months of everyone used to seeing her behind the podium, would really go a long way.
  6. "His teeth didn't fall out! His teeth didn't fall out! We're back baby!"
  7. That's because my daughters are at summer camp.
  8. they would if they thought they could, imo. too many people see how the next couple months are going to go with him forced to be in public more.
  9. you have to be able to move public opinion. that is a big part of the job. he doesn't. being interesting is a real job qualification since teddy roosevelt.
  10. biden inspires zero people. his cult of personality is probably smaller than (and i am being literal here) 50 D-1 backup quarterbacks in the country. no one's vote d is "i wouldn't ordinarily but you do have biden." i absolutely do not believe this.
  11. oh no. it just occurred to me. i'm going to have to deal with the security detail right outside my office . . . at university of austin.
  12. this is amazing and has to be right. i bet there was a very very short debate at admissions at each one of those colleges. "well, it might be useful to have him . . ." ". . . i'm going to cut you off right there. absolutely not." repeated ad nauseum all the way down to: "well, as dean of liberty university, i think we should . . ."
  13. i hope we goes burgum. with vance you can see the suburban educated republican male finding a little place to hide.
  14. uh oh. daddy's reaching for the belt.
  15. It’s be cool if he bombed Cambodia first.
  16. @bolverk @wildcat09 the evidence shows thelma and louise are actually HIGHER than the cliff! all is well!
  17. Wait. Why did I say Harrelson. I meant Mcconaughey
  18. Hanks-Swift 24. LFG O'Neal-Clooney 24. LFG Harrelson-MichelleO. 24 LFG
  19. heh. actuarial tables for someone 80-84 in the U.S.: 1 in 4 chance of dying this year. how long is a presidential term again? https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/probability-of-dying-by-age?time=2019..latest&country=~USA
  20. good info. given that so much of the $ would have to be spent to raise the next person's profile (can't just all be anti-Trump ads that DNC/independent could do), this seems very limiting.
  21. they are purporting to show it compared to the polls throughout the previous decades. i can't imagine that the high 2020 error is because they decided to cram a bunch more questionable polls in the 2020 evaluation (thus ramping the error up) while maintaining only good polls in the pre-2020 analysis (this keeping old error low). don't know for sure though how the qualify what poll to look at any year though.
  22. i'm very happy that we have a factor in a poll that we can agree looks off. anything for the others?
  23. i repped you because i hate motivated thinking in reading these polls. the polls are the best evidence we've got. but i also think they suck ass and it won't surprise me if they're wrong. the 2020 ones particularly sucked. https://aapor.org/wp-content/uploads/2022/11/AAPOR-Task-Force-on-2020-Pre-Election-Polling_Report-FNL.pdf
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