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Duane Moore

Burnt Ends
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Everything posted by Duane Moore

  1. Interesting that the drumbeat of Joe has got to go has picked up again today. I thought they’d at least keep their powder dry until the Big Boy press conference tomorrow. Watch that CBC meeting. If they turn on him, he’s done.
  2. This is where I am. I remember all the Romney supporters wanting to “unskew the polls” back in 2012 and then they turned out pretty accurate. Any one poll can be dismissed as an outlier, that certainly happens, and some pollsters are more reputable than others to be sure, but when you have lots of polls telling you roughly the same thing over time, it’s foolish to ignore them.
  3. If you’ve got that tweet from Wasserman, please post it. Best I could find was the final Cook projections: 15-30 seats is not a red wave and they had 36 seats as tossups, so more broke for D’s than R’s.
  4. lol, this video is wild: Pelosi: We love Joe and will support him however he decides Lemire: he’s said he’s decided and he’s running Pelosi: whatever he decides, we’ll support him
  5. I’d be leery of just disregarding the polls and relying on Dobbs to carry the day everywhere. My recollection of the 2022 midterms was that people were expecting a red wave due to historical trends of a party’s typical midterm results for a new president and Biden’s low approval rating that had begun after the Afghanistan withdrawal, but that the polls themselves weren’t showing a wave coming. The Nate Silvers and 538’s of the world claim that in most cases the polls for 2022 were reasonably accurate. Not to mention that while they didn’t get a red wave, the Republicans did win enough to take back the House. What’s more, Mike DeWine and Ron DeSantis won reelection by huge margins after signing restrictive heartbeat laws in their states. It’s also worth noting that in 2016-2020 the polls underestimated Trump’s vote share in most states, most likely because he pulls more low-propensity voters out of the woodwork that the polls’ weighting algorithms don’t account for. This year, he has been leading pretty consistently across all the pollsters for the whole year, and in states where the same polls are showing the Democratic senate candidate handily beating the Republican candidate. Maybe the public polls are all wrong, but there has been lots of reporting that the campaign’s internal polls are just as bad, if not worse. The fact that many Democratic politicians seem panicked about Biden staying in the race would indicate they believe what the polls are telling them. What I would not trust at this point are polls of hypothetical matchups between Trump and Kamala/Whitmer/Newsom, etc. These are going to have a lot more variability in them and opportunity for improvement with time and name recognition as opposed to Biden, for whom people’s opinions are fixed in amber at this point.
  6. This is the image that comes to mind for me with the Democrats succession problem (and no, I’m not comparing Biden to Stalin as any kind of moral equivalent):
  7. The election explained in one chart:
  8. Yeah, my text from the post got screwed up but this is a trend I’ve been seeing in polls lately. Voters have more favorable approval ratings of Trump’s term than Biden’s. We’ve never had an election where you can compare 4 years of one candidate versus the other’s 4 years, and the comparison is not going well for Biden. It showed up in that AARP poll of Wisconsin that came out today as well.
  9. What do you think has changed with Sark? It seemed like he had this process well in hand the last few years. Does he just not trust the other coaches besides Banks? Tashard Choice has certainly proven himself, and Flood has done pretty well too.
  10. Wait, are we allowed to believe that there will be elections in 2028 on the Doom Thread?
  11. There was an Emerson poll of Wisconsin yesterday that had Trump up 3. Trump’s been up in 3 of the 4 post-debate polls of Wisconsin. And he’s out performed his polling there in 2016 and 2020.
  12. Hear me out - DNC about to nominate Biden at the convention, when “Fight Song” starts playing over the PA system. John King yells, “By God, that’s Hillary Clinton’s music!”
  13. The beatings will continue until morale improves
  14. Didn’t they already do this the day after the debate?
  15. Papers reporting that a leading neurologist who specializes in Parkinson’s had visited the White House 8 times in the last year (per visitor logs) and the WH press corps went hard after KJP on the subject today, so they needed to put out this fire.
  16. First Schumer and now Jeffries. So much for congressional leadership applying pressure on Biden to step down. Unless he swallows his tongue at his “big boy” press conference on Thursday, I think we have our Democratic Party nominee.
  17. Seems pretty clear which way the wind is blowing on the Hill:
  18. It’s like the end of Last Crusade, when Indy is reaching for the Holy Grail. But instead of Sean Connery telling him to let it go, Biden has Hunter whispering in his ear to keep reaching for it.
  19. I’m only half kidding when I say that the Republicans are probably looking for a way to push back their convention a few weeks to avoid shifting the focus to them.
  20. Short of exercising the 25th Amendment, there is no leverage to force out a President who is simply convinced that everything is fine and he is the best person to beat Trump in November. He’ll play chicken with donors who threaten to withhold donations, knowing that if he stays in long enough, they’ll donate again because they don’t want Trump. His polling has dipped, but isn’t cratering and he thinks the race is a toss up. The people he trusts most are family and they are telling him to stay the course. He apparently carries a chip on his shoulder with the Obama and Clinton crowd, and any pressure they try to exert is likely to be counterproductive. For anyone interested in a good discussion of the above, watch Mark Halperin’s latest Zoom call from yesterday.
  21. Is there any real basis for this beyond random accounts on TexAgs or SEC Rant saying “we should move to the Big 10”?
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