Jump to content

UTGrad98

Full Members
  • Posts

    1527
  • Joined

  • Last visited

Everything posted by UTGrad98

  1. Im trying to think about it as though Im manipulating the market and what would I do to achieve my goals of a lower interest rate and saving face from tariffs. I would think once the S and P hits bear market territory, things will quiet down here. There will probably be "deals" made with some strategic countries to boost the market up. But that still doesnt get rates lower. So then I would ratchet up the tariff talk again and push us down sub 20% and maybe to 30% drop and hope for a recession in quarters 2 and 3 with the Fed lowering rates to 2.5% and then refinancing our debt. I think this is one of those years where we get an October bottom. Its just moving so fast right now I dont see how its possible to lengthen that out 6 more months. I think the wild card and next domino to fall is Europe retaliations. That should provide us with our next short term floor, probably this week. Then we rise up for a few weeks giving everyone a false sense of security before the real economic numbers from the fall out and inflation start to come out. Then we start our final retreat lower during the summer.
  2. I set a significant chunk of my net worth in at around a 493 limit buy order just now. You are right. I am super tempted to buy at 500. Even during Covid, we hit circuit breakers 4 times. Each time it hit, we shot up....for a while. Sadly one of the pharmacists had an emergency doctors appt and I have to go cover for him a couple hours from 1p-3pm. I wonder if that will end up being a good thing for me. Part of me thinks maybe he doesnt have a doctors appt....
  3. LOL we are 9 points away from a triggered circuit breaker at 499 SPY.
  4. I agree but I have been wrong so many times in terms of what I think would be a rational direction for the market to go. Hell, we may go all the way up to the 5 day moving average today before we go back down.
  5. It looks like 510 was the bounce. Already back up to 519. Too uncertain for me to jump in. To fall this far before a bounce at the 15% down level isnt a good sign for markets.
  6. We will have to suffer to fix it. And I dont mean a 2 month pandemic sell off and job loss, or even a 2007-2009 recession. We will need to suffer for a decade or more to have real change. For people to understand. Ive said it before, Im beginning to realize human beings as a whole, are not smart enough to continue a democracy. Eventually they will destroy it and the pieces will have to be picked up again. Too much variation in intelligence and for lack of a better term, good and evil thoughts and motivations. Smart evil/greedy people are the worst....and the rest enable them due to what I have stated previously. Its who we are as human beings. Too much variation. If IQs were in the range of say 110-125 and the range of emotions/drives we felt were narrower, I think democracy could work indefinitely. But not right now. The math doesn't work over centuries, or even decades.
  7. SPY at 511 now. If my math is correct a 17% fall is right around 509.
  8. SPY now down over 16% of ATH. If there is going to be a bounce today, it needs to happen pretty quick. Maybe at 17%? I mean if we keep falling we are going to start looking at the 20% crowd soon and their money. I didnt think Id be putting in my Limit Buy order today for 490, but here we are....
  9. Where is the 15% down initial bounce? We kind of sailed right on by so far. I think there will be one still today but maybe at 518-519 ish in SPY. I will say no matter what ridiculousness there is news wise, Im going in pretty hard at 20% for at least a couple percent if I can at around 490 SPY.
  10. They have already given themselves immunity for both Q1 and Q2 saying these are still bidens numbers and his economy. They did say Q3 "could be" considered trumps economy although still partly bidens, maybe. Without going full CR, this won't even be a tough sell to most.
  11. And it's not like when a Democrat comes back into office everything will be OK long term. The US has already shown they will elect someone like trump, decidedly this time, and will do it again in the future. No one can ever say this will never happen again. We are fucked. We are stupid. We did it to ourselves and deserve every bit of pain we will incur.
  12. I'm not feeling as confident trading at a 15% drop as I was before. We may fly right on by to 20%
  13. I think trump caves around a 20% drop and scores 1% "victories" with most countries stating how awesome he is to get the deal done. Question is if the damage done tips us into a recession or not. 20% drop will be a big deal. I also think lowering rates is a big deal for trump in addition to the tariffs. So maybe he let's it go further. The last time he did this the market dropped 20% then corrected back.
  14. The more I read about stagflation the more I don't like it.
  15. The scary thing is we havent even heard what the other countries' response and counter tariffs will be. And then what our response is to that, and so on and so forth.
  16. SPY went from around 569 after hours to 548 as of this post. For it being after hours where there usually isn't crazy movement, this is some March 2020 covid level selling.
  17. I loved so many of his movies growing up. I wore out VHS tapes of Real Genius. Top gun, willow and tombstone. This one sucks. Rip.
  18. They haven't green lit season 4 yet which is concerning. I'm not sure there will be this kind of money thrown at WoT ever again. Hopefully it gets at least 6 seasons to finish the story.
  19. Right now crypto is tracking the nasdaq just with a higher beta. I too have thought about crypto and specifically bitcoin now that you can trade it in some brokerage accounts but it is super risky. I would be very careful thinking it will diverge from the direction of stocks. If we get a 40% market crash bitcoin could crash 80%. It would be right at the bottom where you could have a ridiculous return in 2 years. But where is the bottom. That's the trick. For me personally I would never touch bitcion unless it goes back down to the 20-25k range. My fidelity and schwab account both allow for me to trade it. My vanguard account however does not.
  20. I dont like tariffs mostly because I have had to look up how to spell it multiple times. 1 R and 2 Fs? 2 Rs? 1 F ? Its a shitty word with shitty spelling.
  21. Better yet change the basketball forum to the women's team and put men's basketball in the 'other' sports forums until they earn it.
  22. When you are good at something, people will tune in and follow. Take notice men's basketball. You are currently THE stain of our University of Texas athletic programs.
  23. https://tradethatswing.com/a-history-of-stock-market-percentage-declines-15-to-50-in-charts/ An interesting article I came across
  24. ] 4.3% in a vanguard mm account seems pretty good right now. The question is, will you be able to get back in when rates go down to 0.5%, all hell is breaking loose and every article you read says it's going to keep going lower. Because that shit turns on a dime and doesn't come back once it starts going back up. There are no do overs. No retests of that low.
  25. https://www.atlantafed.org/cqer/research/gdpnow Q1 GDP est down to -2.8 from -1.8 previous estimate. I still don't understand this gold adjustment bs (-0.5). But admittedly I havent tried to. I assume it's still not good.
×
×
  • Create New...