Jump to content

Had Enough

Certifiably Surly
  • Posts

    4114
  • Joined

Posts posted by Had Enough

  1. 4 minutes ago, Steamboat1874 said:

    How many “self sacks” (dumbest new metric in football) prevent an interception?
    Is the QB just giving up on the play?
    Was the design of the play just not there and so it is better to take the sack than even trying to throw it away?

    Did the offensive line miss an assignment and allow a rusher to come in unblocked?

    Many more reasons.

    It is not perfect, but from my understanding there is considerable time into defining all this.  I do not personally know all those specifics as to what a self sack would include.

    If the Oline whiffs on a rusher, that is not a self sack.  If the LT gets beat, it’s not against him self sack.  If the QB holds it 5 seconds, then runs into a rushing then it’s probably a self sack.  There may be an element of WRs are open, but there’s no throw.  I don’t know.

    In the end, there is a grading system.  If the QB throws it away to avoid a sack, that’s not against him.  Just as a drop of a well throw ball is not.  It is assigning responsibility to the appropriate parties.

    • Hook 'Em 1
  2. 8 minutes ago, Nivek said:

    The good comes with the bad.  Had he been better at avoiding those mistakes (and injuries and missed time) his numbers would be higher.  Looking at the overall performance is objective.    TWP is highly subjective.  Sacks are also incomplete, they can be from the QB holding on too long or running into it or it could be a wiffed block, something else?   Unless you know the reason, play, situation, and timing of each, this is difficult to completely blame on the QB, especially if the guy is limited by injury.  

     

     

     

    It is absolutely correct that we are all limited.  That did not stop you from referencing Worthy or Jones as screwing up.  It’s odd that Worthy has played with 4 different QBs yet only quit on one.  And only quit on him for part of one season.  Or that maybe Jones, a soccer player that had been in multiple offenses, right side and left side too, might have a miscommunication thus causing a late pickup.

    Yours, and pretty much everyone else’s, evaluation is subjective.  So if you’re discussing TWP, that is subjective, but keep in mind those are evaluated against a standard to which all other QBs are evaluated.  That’s a bit different than you and I never attempting to define what it it looks then arguing on this board.

    As for sacks, those are evaluated as to who is at fault.  I actually looked this up the other day.  Shedeur led the country in “self sacks.”  17 it was.  Believe QE was tied for 2nd or 3rd at 14.  There’s also data on sacks per time pressured. A sack is a sack but the pressure is subjective. I believe it was 2022 and 2024 in which QE did not compare favorably to others in sacks per pressure.  Guys like a Michael Vick, Caleb Williams, Justin Fields will self sack.  That’s probably two-fold - lack of decisiveness and attempting to make a play. That’s not QE, at least to their extreme.

    Anyone reading my posts can do so knowing that admittedly I’m not a big Ewers fan.  Some of it off field, some of it on field, some of it media/fan induced.  I do believe he’s better prepared for the NFL than quite a few other QBs.  I do believe he’s has characteristics that could make it work at that level, maybe quite well.  He is in a reasonably good spot to help him get there.

    • Hook 'Em 1
  3. https://www.texasfootball.com/records/?ref=subnav
     

    This is a link to Texas high school passing records.  In basically every category, the player was from a 2000 season or later.

    Lukar from 1998 Stephenville was at the back end of a single season yardage list.  Kirk Saul from 1986 was last on the list in single game yardage.

    That’s the stats element.  If you take it to the NFL level for Texas high school bred QBs, that list from the 80s and 90s will pare in comparison to the past decade/20 years.

    Texas was late to the 7 on 7 party.  Not sure when summer conditioning programs were allowed but that’s impactful.  The offensive systems/coaching are massive changes.

    Any stats compiling discussion regarding QBs is only about a 20-25 year history.

    • Hook 'Em 1
  4. 42 minutes ago, WBT said:

    Craig just said LSU cancelled their game today against Grambling and aggy cancelled against coug high, both presumably for rpi reasons.  It just means more.

    Looks like the Aggies passed up a chance at a quad 2 win.  Or loss.

    I would hope if they borderline this works against them.

  5. 1 hour ago, TonyTexas said:

    Georgia and Florida have almost the same AA population. 

    What about old people?  Cause they get drafted at about the same rate no matter which state they reside.

  6. 14 minutes ago, Murfdogg21 said:

    There's also always a bias towards drafting players from the dominant college teams. If Georgia had gone 8-4 several of their players would've been drafted lower or not at all.  The other side of that bias is you see players from Bama or Georgia benefit from having stacked teammates around them playing against mortal college teams, then get drafted high and they aren't stars in the NFL due to better competition and not having 5 guys better than them around them. This is assuming most of UGA's players are from Georgia, as it relates to a bump in Georgia HS kids getting drafted.

    Overall strong post with the belief the bolded part is underappreciated.

  7. 28 minutes ago, Steamboat1874 said:

    And Quinn is very accurate on intermediate type throws too.

     

    Ewers was 97th in the country in adjusted completion percentage in 2024 in the intermediate range.

    Shough, Dart, Sanders and Ward were top 10.  Gabriel 11th.  Rourke and Howard  were top 25.  Milroe tied for 31st.

    Ewers was 16th in 2023.  Ward, Dart and Beck were slightly higher.

    In 2022, Ewers was 108th in adjusted completion percentage.

    On the deep ball, he was 98th in 2022,  95th in 2023, and 47th in 2024.

     

    Throw a catchable ball is the first priority.  There is nothing in the numbers to indicate he’s “very accurate” in that range.  There’s certainly enough in the data to question whether he’s more accurate than those selected before him.  There was one year in which it looked as though he could be something at it.

    The NFL has weighed in on the supporting cast to say these guys are playmakers and can get open.

    • Hook 'Em 1
  8.  

    Vandy and Auburn are ahead of Pig in the RPI but trail Pig by 3 and 4 games in the conference, respectively.

    The conference season has comprised roughly half the total games.  The conference schedule is heavily weighted as to how the team is playing now versus early season tourneys.

    The RPI has Uga has them ahead of teams they trail by 2 and 4 in the conference.

    UCF did fall behind other Big 12 teams but is still roughly 25 spots ahead of Houston in spite of a worse overall record and 4 games worse in the Big 12.  BYU is ahead of Baylor with a worse record and trailing them by 3.

    Mizzou went 0-4 and dropped 3 spots.

    When I last looked at the KPI, it reflected better in my opinion.  Conference records are more convoluted now with unbalanced schedules, but it’s a bit eye catching when conference records don’t align with RPI.  Nevermind that Arkansas handled us far better than any other team.  Hell, they beat us by more runs a game than some got in a series against us.

  9. I want this thread to outlive me.

     

    The ol Quinn kicked ass in Q1 versus Bama in ‘22 always gets me.

    Bama also had 10 points then struggled to get 10 more the remainder of the game.  So he didn’t have to face defensive adjustments.

    And also, if in 2021, we could quit at halftime or end of Q1, we beat Top 10 - OU, OSU, and BU.  And Casey might be all American. We also beat future Super Bowl QB Purdy.  On the road, at night.

    Up to that point in the Sark tenure, we often came out strong against good competition but struggled to finish.

  10. 1 minute ago, Cajun said:

    Today is the day that I learned Jim Schlossnagle is not a high performer.

    I'll be damned...

    (j/k, I get what you are saying)

    How much time do high performers spend in a game thread?

    Damn baseball officials.

    • Haha 1
  11. 2 hours ago, Not a Sock said:

    There is some real rose tinted glasses here, Arch made some mind numbingly bad decisions during his first two starts it’s just that they were against ULM and MSU. Arch absolutely could have had a 2022 OSU or TCU meltdown, pressing too hard and trying to make plays in big games. Also something Quinn was actually good was recognizing pressure and setting protections. There were multiple times that Arch didn’t recognize the blitz and got absolutely lit up from the second level.

    Name me the youthful QB, or any QB, that has had multiple pick 6s/fumble TDs in the same game. It is not common.   The Aggies and Kentucky still don’t win if you give them another defensive TD.  Didn’t we have turnovers on our first posssessions versus OU and Vandy?  I guess Arch could have given up scores on those turnovers.

    A TCU or OSU performance was not resulting in a loss.  Are you telling me a 2nd year in college Ewers, who skipped his final year of hs then whatever you call his stint at OSU would have him on the same level as a 2nd year Arch, having not missed his sr year and playing in the same offense?  That my friend is a reach.  Nevermind that as a team we are better now than then.
     

    You cite MSU for Arch.  An independent source graded that performance as one of the top performances all year that took into account whatever negative plays you think he made.

    ULM was his first start, right?  Undoubtedly amped up.  I believe those errors were early in the game and he settled into the game.

    You know Leavitt is just as young as Manning, right?  Terrible pass to end but otherwise hung tough against a far more talented team.

     

    By the way I’ve not once said put Arch in as starter.  I am pushing back on the notion that chances are good he loses a game or two.

    • Hook 'Em 4
  12. 9 hours ago, Hookem2147 said:

    Schloss said from day 1 in fall ball that we had a good team but our best players were going to need to carry a heavy load and stay healthy because the depth wasn’t there.

    Our team leader at SS is hitting .180 in SEC play, our Friday night starter is out for the season, our best hitter hasn’t played in almost 2 months and our prized portal pickup in the outfield has been relegated to spot starts against Prairie View A&M.

    I think we all mentioned/feared getting out-talented at some point despite how well we’ve played for 3 months and it’s now staring us in the face. Have to respond.

    There needs to be some reconciliation here.  First, every team needs their best players to carry a heavy load.  Same as it always was.  For every team.  And really that’s why we’ve compiled the record we have is because it hasn’t been one guy.

    You are most likely overvaluing the depth of other teams.  Arkansas seems to be struggling finding a first baseman.  Looking at your 2024 Texas Aggies, they had 10 guys with 100 official ABs.  The 11th guy had 61.  He hit .213 with 1 HR.  They had 11 pitchers log 20 innings with 3 of those with less than 25 innings.

    We have 8 guys with 20+ innings.  That doesn’t include Saunier or Burns.  That does not include Rerick or Navarre.  Two guys that PG had rated higher than Dylan V.  We have 8 guys with 100 ABs.  The 9th is Belyeu.  Few teams have a Jonah Williams.

    Go look at UFs stats last year.  Jack C was a monster. Everybody else less so.  Were they lacking depth?  Talent?  Both?

    To many here Mitchell Daly was expendable.  Nevermind he hit 5th for a CWS team that won the same number of conference games as the eventual national champion.  If they were so deep and talented, how’d he hit 5th?

    If these teams are so much more talented and deeper, why don’t they show it?  If there’s talent buried on the roster, it’s likely a freshman who’s not quite ready.  And no matter the perceived depth of the roster, the play time distribution is similar so they aren’t going deeper into their talent pool.

  13. 1 hour ago, Hookem10 said:

    Imagine the meltdown if arch took over after Georgia and lost a couple more games because of freshman mistakes and we missed the playoffs. With are badass defense btw. The fallout of that would have been crazy.  Would this thread be better or worse now that I think about it 

    That would have largely required multiple TDs by the opponents defense while the offense never scored more.  For multiple games.

    From a 2nd year guy that has been educated on football his entire life.  On a team with an overall talent/experience advantage.

    I’m not sure I’ve ever seen that.

    • Hook 'Em 1
  14. 1 hour ago, Park Gothic said:

    Yep. Broughton was a fucking liability in 2022 and barely a JAG in 2023. Then suddenly in 2024 he's a solid disruptor and pass rush specialist on the inside.

    Credit to Kenny Baker for that, I guess. Because I thought Broughton had zero chance of sniffing the NFL. 

    Yeah, it’s probably all of the above.  He likely had his most reps ever and hit that now or never mode too.  Outside of OSU and UGa the opponents talent was not that great so it better allowed him to showcase his skills.

  15. 16 minutes ago, hobbes2702 said:

    I honestly would be fine with capping the number of teams from one conference. Obviously ACC and SEC are the two best conferences by a large large margin, but I still think you should have to perform in your conference to make the tourney. Having teams that finish 6 games under 500 in their conference make the field, especially as 2 seeds, is just kinda dumb imo.

    The process is pretty bastardized.  The RPI is a poor representation. 
     

    The ACC as the #2 conference is closer in rating to the Big 12 at #3 than the Big 12 is to the Big 10 at #4.
     

    In checking it out today, UCF is 56th in the RPI.  They are ahead of 5 teams in the Big 12 ahead of them in conference standings.  They are bunched up however.  Three of those teams are 3-4 games ahead in conference.  Houston is 44 spots lower in the RPI but 1 game up.

    UCF and BYU are tied for 12th of 14 in the Big 12.  They are 5-1 versus Stetson, #72 in the RPI.

    WVU and UCF are a good representation of the RPI east coast circle jerk.

    if you are 4/5 games under .500 in conference, you deserve to sit at home.  You probably won’t notice it in the RPI, but it’s possible you may get a Mizzou or some other team that’s tanking it in conference to even get to that point.  
     

    It’s basically been 20 years of the ACC/SEC squeezing invites/hosts/seeding.  That’s likely part of the reason FSU has so many CWS appearances and no titles.  Significant favorable matchups until the CWS then wilt against talented teams.  
     

    FSU will never leave the state of Florida except for a few conference series, perhaps get some bottom feeder SEC team as a 2, Stetson as a 3 and SWAC team.  They’ll then advance to match up with a “hot” Kentucky in a Super.  A Kentucky that beat Miami that couldn’t handle Stetson in their regular season matchup.  There you go.  You’ve got a rep in the CWS.

    Pull that shit for 20 years, add pay for play, and you get the balance you’ve got today.  Surprise.

     

    • Hook 'Em 1
  16. 30 minutes ago, MrBig said:

    Is Quinn keeping the same agent? If he doesn’t get better representation then he shouldn’t expect better results. I was worried for Quinn when I saw his Hulu commercial and realized the other guy in the commercial with him was his agent. Shit like that plus @Thatguy saying how miserable Quinn was because he was being treated horribly by Texas fans made me think that he has bad representation and is having so much smoke being blown up his ass that it’s going to cause a dumpster fire with his stock in the draft. 

    Could be.   I do not know the answer regarding his agent.

    i do not necessarily get the sense that the voices in his ear have ever been great.  I view Sark and crew as positives but beyond that I don’t know.    I wouldn’t trust that treaty oak fella at all.

    • Haha 1
  17. 22 minutes ago, Derka said:

    huh? he most definitely got better combing than pretty much any other qb in the draft, i’ll give you that. but the idea that he just needs to work harder now and he’ll suddenly be a completely new qb? what do you think he’s been doing his entire life?

    I said put in the work AND consistency of effort.

    He has been humbled at this point.  Maybe for the first time.  For me personally, there was once a time in my life when I worked reasonably hard at a goal.  But I did it in the wrong manner.  So perhaps now he can become more focused.  He has the opportunity.  I believe he landed in a good environment.  He will either succeed or not.

    There's been lots of references to him at his best - Michigan, Bama.  So, yeah, there’s a point at which his preparation could lead to more consistency and provide him a legit chance of success and repeat those performances.

    Going all the way back to 2022, I have not been short of criticism.  I’ve been consistent too.  But I haven’t limited what his upside is.  That’s where I sit today.

    • Hook 'Em 2
  18. 7 minutes ago, immamac said:

    Except the way the offense looked when arch was starting, which is what sarks offense actually looks like. He runs a video game offense with insane players that create mismatches all over the field. 

    I think if he benched Ewers for real, not the takeout benching of Georgia, Quinn would have had a mental breakdown and it would have adversely affected the entire team, the locker room, and potentially recruiting opportunities. It also would have pissed off quite a few donors, sponsors etc, but I don't think sark gives a shit about that. 

    Quinn was too fucking distraught to properly celebrate being drafted and getting a chance at his life long dream of playing in the NFL, that should tell you everything you need to know about his mental resilience. 

    Shedeur Sanders acted like he went number 1 overall, not as an act, but because he was actually that fucking stoked to make it in the NFL despite what was going on. It was nonstop shadeur is sliding coverage and memes about him. 

    Some of you need to take the orange glasses off and see this for what it is.

    Its merely speculative on my part but feel like he’s better trained than most for the next level.  Now it’s largely about putting in the work and consistency of effort.
     

    This was my original statement.  It does not conflict with your comment really.  You could even add that he’s been on bigger stages than many of these other draftees, which should provide for better training too.

    Im not weighing in on whether he will succeed but rather saying that his past 3 years have better prepared him for the NFL than others.

    • Hook 'Em 1
  19. 1 hour ago, Texasborn91 said:

    What gives you that assumption? 32 NFL teams looked at this dudes tape for 3 years and their opinion was he will be a well below average NFL QB. it’s too late to begin to “put in work”. Every week will be UGA on steroids. 

    Sark has been an NFL coach of late.  His offense is not gimmicky.  He understands the value in recruiting with respect to guys succeeding at the next level.  He coached a 1st rounder recently.  Sarks resume would indicate there’s some benefit in playing for him to benefit you at the next level.

    Injury concerns and footwork inconsistency are dings on his resume that are not necessarily failures to knowing how to play QB.

    I’ve never been Ewers biggest fan but taking flyers on some of those other guys over him is odd.  And a number of teams were not in the market for a QB.

    • Hook 'Em 1
  20. 19 minutes ago, Texasborn91 said:Quinn cannot process quick enough

    I probably screwed up the part I was trying to quote.

    In my opinion this is very difficult to determine.  I do look into the numbers.  The numbers say otherwise.  He gets rid of the ball quickly relative to his peers.  You can contrast that to a guy like Caleb Williams.  His average time to throw in college was rather high.   Certainly he holds the ball longer to extend plays, but then he goes tothe NFL and gets sacked a ton.  From a numbers perspective but also a practical consideration those things are related.  He’s not processing quickly enough to the point of decision.
     

    It cracks me up when messages board  users talk about a QB going through progressions.  One because if your first read is open, you don’t progress tothe next option.  Some time Quinn,  for example, gives the defense a false read himself but throws it where he fully intended to go in the first place.  I can’t say with certainty, but we went to the check down pretty quickly this year.  That’s likely not choice two - by maybe it is or maybe in his mind he legit went thru them all.  Then you’re limited as to knowing what a QB is taught.  Then to prove all that out, there has to be some data to support in my opinion.  

    Now, I’ve stated on this board that in my opinion at times he’s too quick to throw.  And that could be considered not going thru progressions. But he was decisive.  And presumably he threw because that WR was open enough.  
     

    Its merely speculative on my part but feel like he’s better trained than most for the next level.  Now it’s largely about putting in the work and consistency of effort.

  21. 5 minutes ago, Huckleberry said:

    http://www.boydsworld.com/baseball/isr/currentisr.html

    Gap between us and #2 is bigger than the gap between #2 and #17.

    I like this cause it fits my narrative.

    WVU at #2.

    Mizzou at #183 versus #152 in the RPI.

    Breaks up the SEC.

    I think to get preferable tourney seeding a moderate to weak non-conference schedule is the way to go.    Compile victories.  WVU may be the test dummy for non-SEC teams though.

    Don’t screw with west coast teams because a number of those schools out west have some pitching to mess you up.  They may not sweep you, but that pitching can take a game or two.

    • Hook 'Em 1
  22. 58 minutes ago, BERT said:

    Yes, 100% Dilfer is better than Dan Marion. Marion sucks ass, fuck that guy.

    Now that you say that, I agree.  I’d take Dion Marion over Difler though.

    38 minutes ago, Murfdogg21 said:

    Plenty of great college QBs don't have NFL talent. Sam had a lot heart and grit, and that goes a long way in college as long as you have a decent skill set and don't make a ton of mistakes. Sam threw well enough, and was an asset in the run game. Quinn has the better arm and vision, but he had zero mobility (why did Sark call so many zone read type plays where everyone in the stadium knew Quinn would never keep it?), throws off his back foot, not a great deep threat, yada yada. I think the 2024 team would've had a better chance to win a championship with Sam at QB, but it's also possible Sam could've made mistakes that cost us a regular season game or two. Sark would prefer Quinn because he's so sure his system is brilliant and Quinn is a precision instrument he can plug into it. Sark's strategy and situational playcalling has to improve, no matter who plays QB.

    Sark would likely not recruit Sam.  He had an opportunity to have him as his QB.  Ideally he wants the guy that can “make all the throws” Nevermind all those would be incredibly infrequent.  In all my life, I’ve only seen one dude make a 1st down on 3rd and 10 scrambling for the first when the defense dropped 10 guys, but Sark doesn’t care about the dude that “can make all the scrambles.”

    15 minutes ago, Jkwellborn said:


    Seems like we talk about it every few seasons. Shipley was injury prone when he arrived, Kirk Johnson, Whittington. There have been several players that never see the field for long periods of time because they stay hurt with something. Is it growing faster than their body can support, improper form with lifting or running, something biological? For some, it may be a mental thing.

    Think Whittington and Johnson were related to being too bulky and inflexible this leading to their troubles.  Flexibility issues cause problems.

    • Hook 'Em 1
    • Like 1
×
×
  • Create New...