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Had Enough

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Posts posted by Had Enough

  1. That Watts RAS score is incomplete right?

    The vertical is surprising. If you’re talking free safety, I’m not sure his relative speed getting worse is a positive.

  2. Looking at some PFF data. Based on sheer number of attempts, not dropbacks, Williams threw middle of the field 10 yards and beyond on 17% of throws. Daniels also 17%.

    Now weigh that against Williams throwing play action on 39% of throws and 24% of his throws being screens. Daniels was 17% and 11%. I could back out the screen attempts but nah.

    There’s a number of questions about Williams. He’s not getting that many play passes and screens in the NFL. Given that Lincoln has had two recently over drafted QBs, that should give some pause. And it’s not like he just willed USC to win after win.

    I’d shoot for trading down and get the motherload of picks. Chicago needs help almost everywhere. They actually have decent offensive skill guys. They need to shore up their front.

  3. If that is your criteria then the people two years ago who said he would never pitch another meaningful inning for us were correct.

    Depends on how one interprets this. He pitched meaningful innings last year. Even had some successful ones.
  4. This. A team from San Diego definitely has more exposure to that kind of weather than a team from Texas. Oh wait..

    Californians don’t like to hit homers. They prefer defense and pitching so crappy weather plays into their game.

    And the proof of that. In 2023, Texas 91 homers, Tordorors or whatever 54. So there.
  5. Assuming you're quoting me, but even if not. I'm not assuming Mahomes is scoring a TD since they hadn't done it all game aside from the time they got the ball after the punt hit the 9ers players leg. What I am assuming is that, if it was a viable option, the Chiefs were going to win it or lose it with Mahomes and not their defense, even though their defense had been exceptional all year. Shanahan played for the 3rd possession but the Chiefs never had any intention of letting it get to the 3rd possession. Acting as if Shanahan would go for 2 had they scored a TD is pointless. He wasn't ballsy enough to go for it on 4th and 4 inside the 10 but he was going to be ballsy enough to go for 2? I don't buy it. That said, had Purdy thrown it to Aiyuk on the last drive of the 4th instead of going to Jennings they would have gotten the first down and ran out the rest of the clock and we (probably) wouldn't be having this discussion.

    Yes, a lot what ifs. You’re right I don’t think the 49ers go for 2 if they score the TD. They didn’t know Reid’s strategy. Or at least I’m not sure that was referenced leading up to the game. Not all coaches are going for 2 in that scenario though.

    But if you tell me it’s pointless to argue that SF goes for 2 is just as irrelevant as saying Reid would go for 2. Neither happened. We don’t know how that plays out. Certainly neither scenario impacted the outcome.

    To me, not going on 4th and 4 is worse than taking the ball first. You are saying the Chiefs never had any intention of it getting to the 3rd possession. You may well be right. But you just stated you weren’t assuming Mahomes was scoring a TD. That’s counter to Shanahan trusting his defense and the assumption that Reid will allow a 3rd possession.

    When Shanahan decided to receive, all options, all outcomes were on the table. He had to choose based on that. Anything subsequent to that was irrelevant as to whether it was a good or reasonable decision. Based on the outcome, it was the wrong decision.

    Anyway, good discussion. You’re welcome to the final word. I do think future strategies may be different based on how this played out.
  6. Obviously we’re talking opinion here. Whatever was chosen was not a sure fire thing. So honestly any choice can be justifiable.

    Basically what you’re saying is that you think Mahomes is scoring a TD. If you give them the ball first and if they score a TD, go for 2 and get it. Then the 49ers are behind the 8 ball. 4th and 1, maybe 2 anywhere on the field, Reid is probably going for it. Had the Chiefs been 4th and 8 from the SF 25 down 3, they are likely kicking the FG. If they get the ball first with same down and distance, they’re likely kicking the FG. It’s not as though every single 4th down decision would be made differently simply because KC got the ball last.

    I’d also say that anyone that made up their mind and never considered that the 49ers could score the TD and get the 2 pointer first has a major shortcoming in their thought process. Going with the assumption that the second possession is the only one that allows for 4 down territory is wrong too and ignores the way football is played today.

    • Hook 'Em 1
  7. The single best way to control the game is to not only score the TD first but go for two. If that happens you control the remainder of the game. If you’re convinced the other guy goes for two if you possess it first, then it’s marginal difference in the two point play whether your offense or defense. I do believe most teams feel confident their O can convert the two. So let your O be the first to go for it.

    There is absolutely nothing to say the team getting the ball first cannot play similarly as though they get it last. You can pretty easily do that once you hit midfield or so. So again 4th and 4 on the KC 9, go for it. If you miss it, they still have to travel 50 yards to get a 68% chance of Butker kicking the winner.

    Imagine the hell Shanahan gets foregoing that FG. But that was probably the worse decision in OT from a retrospective look.

  8. I thought we agreed that taking the ball first in overtime was fine, just needed that stop and SF would be good. 

    It was a reasonable decision. Once the game progressed his decision to go on 4th and 4 at the Chiefs 9 was questionable but not indefensible. At that point, you’re trading 56 yards to get into FG range versus 75 for the TD when the Chiefs get the ball.

    Once the Chiefs passed the 49ers 35 on their actual possession, the Chiefs are likely to kick the FG on anything more than 4th and 2 to tie.

    The biggest factor that I don’t think was known until later was that the Chiefs go for 2 if they score.

    All this was decided knowing that KCs only TD was a 16 yard possession so there are a considerable number of factors in taking the ball first.
    • Hook 'Em 1
  9. Sorry for talking football. Perhaps a bit of a tangent and too many words, but it’s a daily struggle to find ways to be unproductive at work. So here I am annoying the hell out of others.

    But back on topic. JJ sucks and was the beneficiary of his stellar teammates and coaches. He’s destined to be a bust at the next level.

    • Haha 2
  10. Mecole was not on the Chiefs in the preseason so obviously his team at that time didn’t prep either. Or he missed that day.

    My guess is that had Shanahan known Reid goes for 2 he might choose differently. His initial thought, which would be sound, is that worst case we both score TDs. More possessions trumps 4 down territory cause 4th and 5 from the 49ers 25 the Chiefs probably tie it.

  11. I'm saying that Corum is more than just a goalline runner, which is the only context in which you (finally) mentioned him.  His stats are nearly identical to Hall's, with the only difference of note being a better YPG by Corum.  The numbers are so close that anyone trying to say that one is clearly superior to the other is a person that I will ignore because they are full of shit.

    Semantics I suppose. Again my original point was that Purdy had some good skill talent around him with the centerpiece being Hall even though I didn’t say that specifically.

    With Hall you have a bit of proof at the NFL level that says he’s a 3 down back. If you read draft profiles, he was viewed differently then than Corum is now. The stats and projections reflect doubts that Corum is a 3 down back although I’m sure he’d be fine. Halls start in the NFL supports that his talent was worthy of a high pick and that he’s effective in the run and pass game.

    It wouldn’t surprise me if Corum becomes a pro bowl type player. It would surprise me if he caught 75 passes in a season.

    In college, Halls yards per carry trended upwards. Corums went the other way. Hall caught 45% more passes at 9 yards per catch versus 7.3 per catch. Rushing TDs, yards per carry were the same or in the same ballpark. All with the assumption that UMs Oline was better. You can also go into PFFs database and see that Hall broke more tackles/forced missed tackles in total but on a per carry/touch basis too. I think Corums worst year was 2023 in that regard same as his yards per carry.

    Ignore whatever you like, but I bet only one of us played RB in college. Thats a joke. For the most part anyway.
  12. They showed Brock Purdy's parents for about a minute or so, obviously going hard after that christian conservative market.

    Which begs the question about Mahomes parents. They never get shown. Where are they?
    • Haha 1
  13. https://operations.nfl.com/the-rules/nfl-overtime-rules/
    Play until a winner.
    As far as I can tell, there's no need for a game clock in the playoff overtime, right? Each team gets a possession. If you lead after that, you win. If it's still tied, then you keep playing until someone scores.
    Edit: The only reason for the game clock seems to be that there is a "two-minute intermission" between each period. So the game clock tracks when the intermission is if the game is still going.

    I would assume the clocked is needed to switch ends of the field too after completion of the quarter. Not necessarily a huge deal here but if played outdoors or in some dome in which kicking is more difficult, it could matter. Again an assumption, but the clock runs just as though it’s another full game.
    • Hook 'Em 1
  14. You're right.  Mahomes lucked out. First guy to ever progress dramatically from rookie year.  You serious, Clark?
    What he has done has never been done at the pace at which he has done it.  Just luck.  Change out best WR in football?  who cares?  Change out OC?  who cares?  Andy Reid won all those titles before Mahomes...  Patrick just gets lucky.  
     
    LOLz.
     

    What you are underestimating is the ability of many a coach to screw things up. So for that Mahomes is lucky. Reid’s damn lucky to have him.

    Super Bowl wins and stats are overvalued when it comes to greatness. When the Bucs beat the Chiefs, I thought Mahomes made incredible plays, but his receivers dropped two TDs - hit them in the head. When the Chiefs lost to the Bengals, the OT interception hit Tyreek in the damn head. Yesterday, Mahomes was effective largely the last two drives. That only happens because the D keeps the 49ers in check. So many things matter when winning and losing.

    Mahomes is the best QB there’s been. If he blows out both knees in game 1 next year, that is how he should be remembered.
  15. Exactly. Anyone think Brady is winning any super bowls if he gets drafted by the Jets?

    I don’t. Mahomes is great, but their defense won this postseason. Just like the Bucs won theirs. Manning’s Broncos D won theirs.

    If you’re into stats, check out Burrows versus the Chiefs to get them into the Super Bowl. Then check out Purdys versus the Packers and last night. Even the run game stats, sacks. Then consider the narratives of the QBs after those games.
  16. Meh. The shit that he's had to deal with because of a commercial and who he's dating--and millions of people, including "news" networks, loudly wanting him to fail--I'm going to give him a pass for a night of telling people to pound sand.

    What about damn near knocking over his old ass coach on the sideline?
  17. And as I said last night, Mahomes is lucky that Reid drafted him. Even chiefs players say that Mahomes was completely different year 2 vs year 1.  

    You can likely make this argument for virtually anyone in the game of football. Environment, culture and scheme have everything to do with an individuals success and often failures.
  18. Corum is better at the goalline?  It is apparent to me that you've not watched him much.  Here's a clue that might help: at least go look up his stats.  Putting Breece Hall significantly above Corum is a fucking joke.

    I used the goalline as an example because at some point Corum had 20 rushing TDs or thereabouts from the 5 yard line and in. Corum has 58 career rushing TDs. Hall had 50 career rush TDs. And UMs Oline puts ISUs to shame right? If so, that means Corums job is easier. But are you saying Corum is undoubtedly better at the goalline?

    I’ve never said Hall was significantly above Corum in shit. But based on available information, it’s within reason to say Hall is the better overall player. It’s also reasonable to say you can be comfortable with Hall in your backfield in any situation - short yardage, 3rd and long, 1st and 10, two-minute.
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