Posts posted by Had Enough
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18 minutes ago, UTEE97 said:
Couldn't agree more. They flash their potential from time to time, but we need them to be more consistent (easier said than done). We have talent but very few elite guys who strike fear in our opponents. I think this team has come this far because of coaching, not necessarily because of sheet talent.
Yeah, we don’t have 1st round talent necessarily, but we’ve got some potential, deeper than most believe. But I probably view it differently too.
Flores has about as easy power as anyone. Not Ivan Melendez brute strength bat on the ball and it’ll carry power. More consistency needed. Now Max has more brute power. It’s a shame he got hurt because I think he’s a fearful type talent.
Obviously, the coaches are putting players in chances to succeed. I won’t down play their efforts in that.
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2 minutes ago, Valmy77 said:
Well the guys at D1Baseball keep telling us we are not as talented as the other top teams in the SEC.
I look up the Perfect Game rankings and some draft rankings when these guys are prospects. I know Tennessee is bringing them in, Arkansas too. UF. But beyond that, we’re right there or better than others. And UF likes to suck til playoff time.
At some point production matters. We have a lot of maturity too. Bell for Kentucky looked great but otherwise not much. Irish for Auburn is something but pretty underwhelming otherwise.
When watching, I don’t feel we’re outmatched or overwhelmingly fortunate. Arkansas was primed and ready otherwise it’s good pitchers picking us off. That’s been limited too.
Hell, I’d say Gasparino, Flores, Farmer have more to give us. I don’t see any reason Rodriguez, Galvan, Schuessler, Mendoza can’t keep on keeping on.
DV is the one I see most difficult to sustain. Even a slight drop off and he’s damn good.
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2 hours ago, UTEE97 said:
We are definitely overachieving given the amount of talent in the roster.
What are you basing the talent evaluation on?
But “talent” is a foggy notion as I tend to view others thinking it’s high 99s fastballs or Ivan Melendez shots.
As an athlete, I’d probably be pissed that you’re undervaluing my abilities. The truth is there are certainly several dudes that have the ability to perform better. At least consistently better.
I suspect that we’ll get more higher end guys, but I don’t think the back end of the roster will get much deeper. Unless NIL can buy patience. I’m guessing there’ll be a Jayden Duplantier more often than not. Fast, utility guy that works at it and does not expect to start every game. There’s absolute value in guys like that. Above average talent is not going to sit for multiple years unless the dollars are enough.
As far as the “eye” test, we aren’t overachieving because our opponents don’t jump off the page as being elite. Several of the big arms we’ve seen can’t find the zone. Some of the best arms have beaten us, but they can’t pitch all 3 games. Opposing hitters haven’t exactly torn the cover off the ball. If you haven’t looked at other teams rosters, how many guys contribute and the production at the bottom end, then you might be surprised to know only about 22-24 guys play and quite a few of those have poor numbers.
Then you’ve got Max Grubbs. Maybe his talent isn’t elite. Maybe his tenacity is. I’ll take him any day.
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4 minutes ago, AnotherLawyer said:
It's nitpicking, but it's actually 23. 12 last year and 11 the year before. Generally the playoff teams, not just the champ, have had a ton drafted.
Well some of us can add better than others.
I would imagine it’ll be that way moving forward with the 4 finalists getting a lot drafted including a number of transfers. I’d guess we’ll be around double digits next year.
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52 minutes ago, jimmyjazz said:
Let's take a look at the two teams that knocked us out of the playoffs:
UW 2024: 10 drafted (3 in the 1st round)
Ohio State 2025: 14 drafted (4 in the 1st round)
Texas 2024: 11 drafted (2 in the 1st round)
Texas 2025: 12 drafted (3 in the 1st round)
For those not keeping score at home, that's 24-23 picks (opponents v Texas) and 7-5 1st round picks. We were in pretty high cotton in those games.
I’m taking this a step further.
You can’t win with a singular class very easily. It’s a pain to add and subtract, but here we go.
The two year running total for Texas is 25 guys drafted. Take away Mukuba, Golden add back Crawford gets you to 24. For UW, you have 11. That is a significant disparity. Beyond that, I would offset Hill with Brailsford so participants would be a wash, sorta.
OSU, Texas is tbd. We have Downs and Smith for OSU. Hill and Simmons for us. Obviously there will be many others drafted from the 2025 team.
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4 minutes ago, jimmyjazz said:
I have no interest in digging further, and I'm sure there are other examples on other talented teams, but Matthew Golden and Andrew Mukuba weren't even on the 2023 team (2024 draft). (This is not to say we didn't have great players or anything like that.)
Howard, Judkins, Downs (not drafted yet) were not original OSU guys.
Penix, the Tech WR were transfers.
All the top teams will have those transfers so it can be a little misleading.
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4 minutes ago, jimmyjazz said:
What does that have to do with the price of tea in China? We got beat by two very talented teams. It takes 22 guys (well, 24+) not 1 guy. This thread is fucking stupid.
It’s the Ewers thread. Celebrating his successes and failures. You are correct. All very talented teams.
There was considerable thrashing of the D versus UW. I mean on the message boards. The Ds job was significantly more difficult than the O. That UW team was unbalanced relative to the others. There is little support to say the UW defense had great talent.
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17 minutes ago, jimmyjazz said:
Let's take a look at the two teams that knocked us out of the playoffs:
UW 2024: 10 drafted (3 in the 1st round)
Ohio State 2025: 14 drafted (4 in the 1st round)
Texas 2024: 11 drafted (2 in the 1st round)
Texas 2025: 12 drafted (3 in the 1st round)
For those not keeping score at home, that's 24-23 picks (opponents v Texas) and 7-5 1st round picks. We were in pretty high cotton in those games.
Yo JJ. Of those 7 1st round picks from our opponents, how many were offensive and defensive?
6 offensive guys, 1 defensive guy.
On our side, we had 3 O guys and 2 D guys.
That UW team was pretty heavily weighted to offense.
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14 minutes ago, mwaadeeb said:
Pro Football Focus is a company. Wiki: "PFF is criticized by the analytics community regarding the accuracy and veracity of its ratings. In contrast to the purely quantitative ratings released by sources such as Football Outsiders, TeamRankings, and numberFire, PFF uses qualitative and opinion-based grading as the root of its 0–100 Player Grades – not its advanced statistics. As such, the 0–100 Player Grades are not truly quantitative and could be seen as being prone to bias, poor sample sizing, or other issues."
Still, you're right. It's a metric saying QE was subpar (last year). But you're hanging your whole argument on that and where GMs drafted him and ignoring every traditional statistic (like passing and winning percentage), and treating your opinion as fact. Can't you see that?
Traditional stats alone are not worth much. On the University of Texas top 10 single game passing lists for yards and TDs, Casey Thompson shows up as much or more than Quinn. Throwing to non-drafted WRs, a TE we kicked out, a younger Worthy. Are you willing to place them on the same level?
Winning percentage? What’s our win percentage with and without Ewers the past 3 years? I think the one loss without him represents our highest offensive scoring output in a loss in that time.
DFEI/OFEI are quantitative. Our defense is top 10 3 years running. Our offense is not. How does one allocate the defenses share of win percentage?
I am largely arguing to argue. But y’all know derks and how that goes. I have no problem with him or y’all arguing with him. It adds to my entertainment dollar. So keep it up.
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12 minutes ago, Steamboat1874 said:
Great post.
If you have any doubts about how the lack of a rushing game can affect the performance of a QB look no further than John Elway.
Great QB who could not win a championship without Terrell Davis running the ball.
I’m going to throw in a no one gives a shit about your Al Bundy perception of football. But it does impact my perspective. I played QB in the high school. Also started two ways the entirety of that time. Multiple sports. Successes. Failures. At all of it.
My school is a bit unique. Small but mid-sized classification. A guy has started in the NFL, albeit briefly. There have been record setter, players of the year. You don’t just see the player, but you know a bit about their teammates, their families, their teammates families, etc.
What you say is true. Here is what is also true. Those offensive players of the year, they had the best supporting casts, the best offensive system and obviously added their skill set. The guy that did the most beyond high school had a mediocre record from what I recall. The overall environment was conducive to success or less conducive to success if you will.
The environment is incredibly important and more so to the QB than any other position. At the University of Texas it’s never been more conducive to team and QB success than the past two years. In both cases, there are and will be comparisons, but it’s far more complex as to how the final outcome is derived.
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4 minutes ago, Steamboat1874 said:
How many “self sacks” (dumbest new metric in football) prevent an interception?
Is the QB just giving up on the play?
Was the design of the play just not there and so it is better to take the sack than even trying to throw it away?Did the offensive line miss an assignment and allow a rusher to come in unblocked?
Many more reasons.
It is not perfect, but from my understanding there is considerable time into defining all this. I do not personally know all those specifics as to what a self sack would include.
If the Oline whiffs on a rusher, that is not a self sack. If the LT gets beat, it’s not against him self sack. If the QB holds it 5 seconds, then runs into a rushing then it’s probably a self sack. There may be an element of WRs are open, but there’s no throw. I don’t know.
In the end, there is a grading system. If the QB throws it away to avoid a sack, that’s not against him. Just as a drop of a well throw ball is not. It is assigning responsibility to the appropriate parties.
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8 minutes ago, Nivek said:
The good comes with the bad. Had he been better at avoiding those mistakes (and injuries and missed time) his numbers would be higher. Looking at the overall performance is objective. TWP is highly subjective. Sacks are also incomplete, they can be from the QB holding on too long or running into it or it could be a wiffed block, something else? Unless you know the reason, play, situation, and timing of each, this is difficult to completely blame on the QB, especially if the guy is limited by injury.
It is absolutely correct that we are all limited. That did not stop you from referencing Worthy or Jones as screwing up. It’s odd that Worthy has played with 4 different QBs yet only quit on one. And only quit on him for part of one season. Or that maybe Jones, a soccer player that had been in multiple offenses, right side and left side too, might have a miscommunication thus causing a late pickup.
Yours, and pretty much everyone else’s, evaluation is subjective. So if you’re discussing TWP, that is subjective, but keep in mind those are evaluated against a standard to which all other QBs are evaluated. That’s a bit different than you and I never attempting to define what it it looks then arguing on this board.
As for sacks, those are evaluated as to who is at fault. I actually looked this up the other day. Shedeur led the country in “self sacks.” 17 it was. Believe QE was tied for 2nd or 3rd at 14. There’s also data on sacks per time pressured. A sack is a sack but the pressure is subjective. I believe it was 2022 and 2024 in which QE did not compare favorably to others in sacks per pressure. Guys like a Michael Vick, Caleb Williams, Justin Fields will self sack. That’s probably two-fold - lack of decisiveness and attempting to make a play. That’s not QE, at least to their extreme.
Anyone reading my posts can do so knowing that admittedly I’m not a big Ewers fan. Some of it off field, some of it on field, some of it media/fan induced. I do believe he’s better prepared for the NFL than quite a few other QBs. I do believe he’s has characteristics that could make it work at that level, maybe quite well. He is in a reasonably good spot to help him get there.
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https://www.texasfootball.com/records/?ref=subnav
This is a link to Texas high school passing records. In basically every category, the player was from a 2000 season or later.
Lukar from 1998 Stephenville was at the back end of a single season yardage list. Kirk Saul from 1986 was last on the list in single game yardage.
That’s the stats element. If you take it to the NFL level for Texas high school bred QBs, that list from the 80s and 90s will pare in comparison to the past decade/20 years.
Texas was late to the 7 on 7 party. Not sure when summer conditioning programs were allowed but that’s impactful. The offensive systems/coaching are massive changes.
Any stats compiling discussion regarding QBs is only about a 20-25 year history.
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42 minutes ago, WBT said:
Craig just said LSU cancelled their game today against Grambling and aggy cancelled against coug high, both presumably for rpi reasons. It just means more.
Looks like the Aggies passed up a chance at a quad 2 win. Or loss.
I would hope if they borderline this works against them.
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14 minutes ago, Murfdogg21 said:
There's also always a bias towards drafting players from the dominant college teams. If Georgia had gone 8-4 several of their players would've been drafted lower or not at all. The other side of that bias is you see players from Bama or Georgia benefit from having stacked teammates around them playing against mortal college teams, then get drafted high and they aren't stars in the NFL due to better competition and not having 5 guys better than them around them. This is assuming most of UGA's players are from Georgia, as it relates to a bump in Georgia HS kids getting drafted.
Overall strong post with the belief the bolded part is underappreciated.
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28 minutes ago, Steamboat1874 said:
And Quinn is very accurate on intermediate type throws too.
Ewers was 97th in the country in adjusted completion percentage in 2024 in the intermediate range.
Shough, Dart, Sanders and Ward were top 10. Gabriel 11th. Rourke and Howard were top 25. Milroe tied for 31st.
Ewers was 16th in 2023. Ward, Dart and Beck were slightly higher.
In 2022, Ewers was 108th in adjusted completion percentage.
On the deep ball, he was 98th in 2022, 95th in 2023, and 47th in 2024.
Throw a catchable ball is the first priority. There is nothing in the numbers to indicate he’s “very accurate” in that range. There’s certainly enough in the data to question whether he’s more accurate than those selected before him. There was one year in which it looked as though he could be something at it.
The NFL has weighed in on the supporting cast to say these guys are playmakers and can get open.
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Vandy and Auburn are ahead of Pig in the RPI but trail Pig by 3 and 4 games in the conference, respectively.
The conference season has comprised roughly half the total games. The conference schedule is heavily weighted as to how the team is playing now versus early season tourneys.
The RPI has Uga has them ahead of teams they trail by 2 and 4 in the conference.
UCF did fall behind other Big 12 teams but is still roughly 25 spots ahead of Houston in spite of a worse overall record and 4 games worse in the Big 12. BYU is ahead of Baylor with a worse record and trailing them by 3.
Mizzou went 0-4 and dropped 3 spots.
When I last looked at the KPI, it reflected better in my opinion. Conference records are more convoluted now with unbalanced schedules, but it’s a bit eye catching when conference records don’t align with RPI. Nevermind that Arkansas handled us far better than any other team. Hell, they beat us by more runs a game than some got in a series against us.
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I want this thread to outlive me.
The ol Quinn kicked ass in Q1 versus Bama in ‘22 always gets me.
Bama also had 10 points then struggled to get 10 more the remainder of the game. So he didn’t have to face defensive adjustments.
And also, if in 2021, we could quit at halftime or end of Q1, we beat Top 10 - OU, OSU, and BU. And Casey might be all American. We also beat future Super Bowl QB Purdy. On the road, at night.
Up to that point in the Sark tenure, we often came out strong against good competition but struggled to finish.
Quinn "La Joya" Ewers - The Man The Myth The Mullet, Now Starting for the Miami Dolphins
in Football
So it’s ok to shit on Bert?
Yeah, he should have made one of those FGs. Ideally, the offense doesnt stall and settled for a 48 yarder. Not what I’d call a satisfactory drive.
Thats where Ewers needed to seal the deal. And Sark too. We’ve lost several games because the offense did not finish the deal. Bama 22. OU and UW 23. ASU in 24. Don’t settle for FGs.