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Askew

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Everything posted by Askew

  1. Assuming the 33-counter number is accurate and my understanding is correct that those 33 counters can all be used on HS recruits, I think we need to pump the brakes on how much the portal is going to be used this cycle. Looks like Sark is really trying to rebuild the team/culture the right way, and that means bringing in HS recruits and developing them. It's also clear that Sark is going to keep powder dry to shoot his shot with 5-stars and address the OL, which means he will mostly wait on transfers until NSD1 and NSD2 are over. We're at 21 counters right now. From the offers that are out and how the staff is pushing guys, it looks like the staff is going to address depth needs with HS recruits. That likely means they'll take an additional S (LTG), RB/APB (Red), and CB (Brice or Harris). That's 24. OL depth is going to be addressed through HS recruits. We absolutely need more HS OL. They're going to take 4 more OL at least. That's 28. The only portal guys I'd pencil in to that right now are QB (Ewers) and OL (Dunlap). Takes us to 30. Of the remaining 3 spots, I guarantee Sark will reserve spots until NSD2 for any 5-star or any OL left on the board. Banks, Campbell, Cam Williams will all have spots saved. So will any of Perkins, Law, Dewberry, Greene, Stewart, should they magically want in the class. Just with how the board currently looks, I could see a scenario where QB (Ewers) and OL (Dunlap) are our only transfers. I think we max out at 5 transfers.
  2. If you had some pithy commentary or implicit meaning in your post I quoted, you may want to take anther swing at expressing it. You're not exactly Earnest Hemingway at this point in your writing career. But go ahead and keep blaming the reader.
  3. Have you actually watched Red's tape? Or Winfield's? Theres a huge difference between "better players" and "higher rated players"-- it's not a coincidence that Winfield's rating is consistently dropping and that he doesn't have many committable offers at this point. Sounds like you're one of the star chasers that would happily take Dele Adeyoe over Terrell Bernard, because ratings.
  4. As a contingency, is it crazy to want Savion Red over Winfield? Red's a dog and has more natural athleticism. Could also fill in as an APB. Reminds me of Jarvis Landry. Chain mover. We desperately need more of those.
  5. You understand that 30% of the roster is only 26 players right? That is pretty much complete with the outgoing transfers and graduates. Pretty much all of those guys are useless. You saying we should keep more of Herman's awful evaluations now, but also should have processed BJ Foster last spring, is hypocritical. And dumb.
  6. This. And the 2019 class is an absolutely dismal assembly of poor fits and bad mental evals. Safeties that cant cover. Linbackers that cant diagnose or drop coverage. No edge players. Positions of need filled from Juco (edge and OL). TEs that never blocked in highschool. QB that cant throw. WRs that either cant run (Washington, Lewis) or lack pure skills (Smith). With how poor the roster management, evals, and retention has been, it's not just about upgrading talent. For some positions it has literally been filling the position with bodies. We essentially didn't have an edge group going into this year (the most important position in most defenses, especially PK's)--we had Jones, Dorbah, and Bush (not sure how that is possible after 4 top-10 recruiting classes, but Orlando really fucked us). We filled that group with bread through the portal. We get bread results on the field. We are now recruiting a 2-deep across the entire DL this 2022 class for a reason.
  7. The Alfred Collins situation is a positive. For this season, recruiting, and the future of reshaping the roster. Collins was reportedly and visibly showing poor effort and mental intensity during the spring and early games this season (that Bijan run that got leaked on instagram by a recruit is exhibit A; didn't see him flash at all during the spring game). I would venture to guess that the spring rumor floating around of "a talented player who hasn't really done anything but is acting like an NFL pick already" would feature Collins as a prime suspect. That dynamic probably led to the smoke from Gerry at IT about "Collins and this staff not being a marriage that would last." The coaches were unwilling to reward that behavior by playing him early on. Instead they gave him a choice to buy in or not. I think it's pretty clear he's buying in, the coaches are slowly rewarding him with marginally more snaps rather than anointing him the 'chosen one' immediately (even with Jones' injury), and he's now starting to produce on a level that could match his elite potential. This is a great example of meritocracy for the current team. It's also good to show recruits that youre not going to be rewarded for diva behavior and have to come in and work regardless of ranking. And it's good for jettisoning dead weight/ bad locker room guys to make space for the future roster.
  8. So that report over the Summer along the lines of: 'there is a talented player who hasn't really done anything, but is acting like a top draft pick already' at first sounded like JTS, but has to be Alfred Collins, right? Gerry's comment on IT + him not getting any snaps is my evidence. Both reports might be bullshit, but him not getting snaps is certainly weird.
  9. What's crazy is the game was essentially a blow-out in the end, but think about what would have happened if UL had failed to convert even one of those 4 fourth-down conversions inside their own 40/30 (iirc?). They were hanging on by a thread and surviving by the thinnest of margins. I will say this reflects well on PK, because he wasn't really worried about selling out on 4th down to get a stop and risking a breakdown and explosive play, he was confident in his bend but dont break.
  10. Two game takeaways: 1) Despite shitty fan experience, the heat + 3:30 kick turned out to be a major, major home field advantage for us. Midway through the 3rd quarter, we have a long drive right when the shade starts to cover our sideline; meanwhile, their sideline continues to bake until the fourth. After that drive we go up 28-12, their D starters were gassed, their depth was cooked, and it was over. Probably won't get this again this year, but it was huge to cement this dominant first win for Sark. 2) Looked like the guys were having a lot of fun, especially DMO and Luke. Haven't seen our LBs playing off each other and slapping pads like that in a while. Great energy. One thread takeaway: 1) Dont think I've seen the word "Coleman" in here yet. 🤔
  11. This is a great look at why Card is a more natural thrower. You can tell Casey is jerking through motion to put more velocity on the ball: shoulders over-rotate, side bends his body into the throw, brings his right leg through his rotation late and unnaturally. This is all trying to overcome his lack fluid release through his elbow/wrist snap. Contrast with Card whose body/rotation is synced with his hips. Great elbow extension and wrist snap to release the ball. Looks pretty effortless. Ironically, Casey motion actually looks "faster" but you can tell that less velocity is transferring through the ball. He's swinging too hard at the golf ball. Casey doesn't look bad by any means, but when put side-by-side with Card, it is noticeable. If Aaron Rodgers's motionless wrist-flick motion is the ideal, Card is a lot closer to that.
  12. If Casey retains his seeming advantage in composure, pocket presence, and ability to throw a catchable ball and hit the checkdowns, what you described is a pretty perfect argument for inserting Casey as the starter. At least to begin the season. If Card eventually beats him out this year or next August based on upside and arm talent, good. But for now seems like we need a game manager to lead the team and get Bijan the ball.
  13. Those same fans will shit on the SEC West, and at the same time say that "Fayetnam" is such a tough place to play that they wouldn't be surprised if Arkansas beat us.
  14. Interestingly enough, it's nearly impossible to recruit above the level Herman did in the three-year stretch of '18, '19, and '20. Development aside, all we really need is to recruit comparably to that level and make better evaluations. Best example, I don't care about the DB ratings of the guys we got in '18, you don't take a class with 5/6 DBs that lack elite NFL measurables. Sterns, Foster, Green, Cook all had high technical floors at the high school level, totally exposed in college. DMO was a LB playing safety. If we had replaced june 1 guy in that class based purely on elite measurables, we probably are looking at a much different secondary outlook right now. I especially trust PK to turn that evaluation trend around.
  15. The consternation about Sark being a "guy's guy" and brilliant mind but not a closer does have a silver lining: profiles for better long-term results, despite possible negative effects for this current cycle. Judging by the Noah Cain (?) story, Herman was a pushy closer. So extrapolating to his 2018 'pre-results' class, he probably pushed and closed a good amount of guys, especially the 2018 Houston crew that was gangbusters at the time. But, you get 2-3 years in and Herman's true character starts to show. The guys on the team hate him, results start to sour on the field, and recruits start to shy away as early as 2019 despite getting the hard sell; by 2021 his closing ability is essentially dead. Also re the support staff: the fish stinks from the head down. Once Herman was revealed, the support staff was useless. I trust Sark to figure out the staff once things settle in. So, I think i'd prefer Sark's true character/culture to start translating to exponentially better recruiting results in 2-3 years rather than peaking early. And in that time work to develop a recruiting infrastructure that fits his culture. The Dabo model.
  16. Is one of the sidelines going to be a darker shade or is that an optical illusion?
  17. This is incorrect and part of the revisionist fabrication that Gerry and IT are using to cover their ass. Here's the breakdown: 1) Gerry and IT say that Texas is feeling very confident in Williams, Hutson, Robertson, Banks, Campbell. So confident that they may not have space for Sexton. 2) Poster asks whether this has been relayed to Sexton. Gerry responds that "it is known" by the Sexton side and elaborates that the staff views Williams as the take over Sexton. I.e., we are full at OT. 3) The 'Williams over Sexton' theory gets cemented all throughout last week and into the Williams decision. The posters are now frothing at the mouth at the possibility of that OL class. The 'Sexton was told no' story really gets the posters believing that that OL class is happening for sure. How could the staff tell Sexton no if they arent confident? 4) Williams spurns Texas and people start to question the Sexton story. 5) Banks looks like he will spurn Texas. One poster now posits that the staff 'probably sees Sexton as an OG and redundant with Robertson/Hutson.' Gerry replies "this is it." 6) Now Gerry and the rest of IT are running with the theory that it was actually 'Hutson/Robertson over Sexton' the entire time, and that their intel was credible. So, Gerry spins a yarn that the staff is super confident. He cements that yarn with the 'Sexton told no' story. Williams and Banks go elsewhere and now either Gerry's story looks like bullshit or the staff looks stupid. Gerry adopts a revisionist theory to clean up for both sides. Regardless, we need to hit on some OTs.
  18. The recruiting talk is such a great microcosm of the trajectory of the collective psyche of the message boards this week: 1) Shrillest parts of the board freak out when Brooks and Thompson spurn Texas. 2) Reasonable parts of the board come in––represented by the podcast––with reasonable takes on Wednesday: "Brooks was never coming here; Thompson is a nobody––not that butthurt about it! Don't care anyway got Jamarion. Guess what, everyone RELAX were getting 3/5ths of our OL class done in the next two days." With the last sentence stated so matter-of-factly that keen or psych-educated onlookers would detect an underlying bit of self-hugging going on for mental preservation. 3) Williams spurns Texas. Reasonable parts of the board give in and ABSOLUTE MELTDOWN ensues. Even the most stoic have a draft comment along the lines of 'starting to lose faith in the coaching staff' waiting as they F5 the prospects thread. 4) Hutson and Robertson commits barely register as a win given our rattled mental state, but just enough to keep everyone from jumping as we limp into the holiday.
  19. For anyone that wants to get caught up with a TLDR: these were the culmination of the last time @ShowMeALoss wandered in. Second one...accurate
  20. This is the point I was making, and the reason for Big 12 expansion. Our league is capped out at 3 teams that can have 10 wins each year. While we argue whether we can get 2 and maybeee 3 teams in, the Big 10 and SEC are wondering whether they can get 3, 4 or even 5 in. Neither conference is ever going to say "it's going to be dicey for the 2nd place team to get in." One reason is they win their OOC gams, but the main reason is they have more available wins in conference. If we want to talk about increasing the money and eyeballs that flow to the Big 12, it needs to start with the positive impact of multiple teams making the CFP, and what that does to the schedule the next year. We want to play as many "big time games" as possible each year, and that conversation will soon be dominated by which teams are always in the top-12.
  21. First off, hold your horses--we literally cannot play fewer conference games right now. It's a 10-team conference round robin. We either expand or continue 9 games. Second, youre misunderstanding my point a bit. I'm not saying bring in bad teams. I'm saying bring in teams. Hopefully that would mean 2-4 of Utah, Colorado, Nebraska, Mizzou, Arizona, Arizona St. And I pointed out the zero-sum problem in my post. The Big 12 has that the worst of any conference right now. But cross-division games are almost like an OOC. Bama playing Vandy assures them a win, and the SEC West doesn't otherwise take a loss. So the SEC West teams that Bama plays all year are all ranked better. There can be years where Bama, Auburn, and LSU are all 10-win teams, along with Florida and Georgia in the east. Same thing goes in the Big 10. Ohio St, Michigan, Penn st, Wisconsin, Iowa all magically find themselves around 10 wins. It's literally not possible in the Big 12. There arent enough available wins in the round robin format. It's fine if the goal is get one team to the CFP. It sucks if you want more top-15 teams.
  22. Couple of thoughts: 1) Big12 currently has the most ideal path to get one team into the CFP (1st and 2nd best team always play in CCG--winner will almost always go to CFP with that big win). In 2-division leagues, a weak division winner can win the CCG and knock out the #1 team; or a tough division can cannibalize itself (Pac 12). 2) But Big 12 has the worst ability to have multiple top-12 teams. Round robin play is zero sum. Cross-divisional wins can really bump up the resumes of teams--think of a year where Bama and LSU both play eg Vandy. Bama and LSU both get an extra win, and none of the other SEC West teams take a loss. Relative rankings bump for all involved. 3) If 12-team playoff goes through, BIG 12 needs to immediately expand to get increase the available wins in conference, 10 wins looks like the magic number. Big 12 maxes out at about 3 10-win teams. The 14-team conferences max out at about 5 10-win teams. 4) The first-round hosting/2nd-round bowls is actually a great way to quasi-punish the top teams. All of the lower seeds get some amazing program exposure, top teams get a bye but no exposure. Kind of like the NFL draft. Here's a slight variation to 12-team I would really want to see: -First round is the NY6 Bowls. The 6 conference winners get the same bowl every year for tradition (Rose Bowl for Pac 12, Sugar for SEC, Cotton at Jerryworld for Big 12, Orange for ACC, etc). Conference winners play the six at-large. -NY 6 determines the seeding. Makes for interesting debate. Top-2 teams have a bye. Next 4 teams play the quarterfinals. 2 highest seeds host. This would eliminate any chance a Cincinnati ever hosts a game, unless it's a cinderella story which would make it awesome atmosphere. -The 2 previous Bye teams host the semis. -Championship at a neutral site. BUT hosting will work best in the first round when students are on campus, so this won't really work that well in practice.
  23. Wonder what the presentation to recruits is for the SEZ while it's still under construction. These athlete facilities and offices have to be getting close to finished if CDC is saying August is still the target completion date. Can't wait to see the finished product and hear the reaction from recruits/players.
  24. Absolutely huge. Could easily be our RB2 and add a consistent explosive element our offense lacks. Good. If Roschon keeps his spot, KR will push him, raise the level of competition, and still add a change of pace back. Great. No longer have to hold our breath that Watson or Young might have to play. Strong 3-man rotation. Amazing.
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