
SL Xpress
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Here's my theory: Convicted criminal and opportunist who makes connections with Putin while Putin is on his way up. Putin likes him and sees him as useful. Makes him a billionaire, places him in his inner circle. At some point Prighozin approaches Putin with the idea of starting up a private army, and how they could do the dirty work around the world that would be productive for Russia without the Russian military having to get its hands dirty. A Russian equivalent to Blackwater, only even more active and tied to the state. Wagner proves to be exceptionally useful in both Africa and Syria. They get shit done. The operation is competently run. They spend a lot of money on their personnel, making sure they're equipped extremely well. There's an esprit de corps among members that they're the best of the best. They're valued for their ruthlessness. The best soldiers in the Russian army often sign up with Wagner for the higher pay and the feeling of being with the best. In the meantime Wagner becomes a major source of revenue and power for Prighozin. Putin values him as an asset outside the normal chain of command who is loyal to him. Other members of the inner circle are way of Prigozhin but feel helpless to do anything about it with him having Putin's personal blessing. Also, they see the value in what his organization brings - just wary of the risks but no way to communicate those to Putin in a way that makes sense. Putin decides to invade Ukraine. The swift military action planned for goes to complete shit. The airborne units are left to be massacred after taking over the Antonov airport. The regular forces can't get their shit together, are bogged down by terrain, horrible logistics, and the internal corruption that pervades the regular army. Hence the need for something like Wagner in the first place. Wagner troops in general create better results where ever they are deployed compared to the regular army. Again, they're better equipped, better trained, better morale. They're a private version of the most elite VDV units. The offensive bogs down. Prighozin is out of his mind with the incompetency of the Russian army, and being forced to work alongside these fools. They're lazy, stupid, have no sense of professionalism, and everyone is out to save their own skin. He somehow convinces Putin, whether directly or through a third party, to put Wagner in charge of an offensive and let him show how to effectively carry one out. The offensive chosen was in the direction of Bakhmut. As part of this effort he's given permission to recruit convicts out of the penal system to be used as meat. Prighozin is very charismatic, and as a former prisoner himself, he knows how to speak to these people in a compelling way. He signs up tens of thousands to supplement his forces. Lacking armor and sufficient artillery under their direct control, Wagner develops the strategy of sending in convicts in waves of 5 or 6 at a time, ferreting out the placement of Ukrainian defenses and weak points. After either the convicts secure a point, or the defense is softened up sufficiently, they then send in the regular Wagner shock troops. This is done over and over relentlessly, in Soledar and then in Bakhmut itself. Given that this is the only spot along the entire front where any progress is being made whatsoever, it's seen as a success. At some point Prighozin is cut off from access to Putin. I have no idea when it occurs, but it obviously occurs. Given Russian politics and Prighozin's lack of a power base outside of Putin and Wagner, he chooses to go all in. Backing down at this point would mean losing everything to the long knives in Putin's inner circle. I don't know that he has a long term plan per se, other than like Baelish opined, chaos is a ladder. I can't imagine he saw himself as displacing Putin directly, but I certainly feel like he saw himself as a potential replacement for Putin, depending on how things worked out. Bakhmut is taken over, or at least the rubble of the town is taken over. Prighozin declares victory and begins to pull his forces out. Shiogu sees Prighozin's limited utility at an end, and makes a move to eliminate Wagner as a separate source of power. I'm assuming with Putin's blessing. Who knows, though. Maybe everyone is acting in a vacuum. Prighozin sees this as an existential threat in more ways than one. He escalates his rhetoric and his actions, but eventually sees no other course of action than to declare war on the Russian military command. My guess is it's probably sold to Wagner fighters as an act of righteous rebellion, Potemkin style. I don't care how much ammunition or other supplies they've stashed away, it won't be enough. There will have to be some way of dealing with air power, of refueling, replacing ammo stocks, and feeding the troops. This won't be a sustained activity. Even if it's true fighter pilots refused to fire on them (which I don't believe) eventually they'll find fighter pilots who will. I do not believe this was the end goal at virtually any point along the timeline. I believe Prighozin felt like eventually Putin would step in in his favor, because his organization is the only one getting anything done, and they still provide a lot of value in Africa in the short term, and around the world in whatever hotspots arise in the long term. But at the end of the day Prighozin has had the rug pulled out from under him. Better to go out with guns blazing than meekly submit to a kangaroo court and a bullet in the brain.
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I don't agree even a little bit with the facile comparison to Iraq and Afghanistan. Just an easy tweet to make that won't be challenged. The US won both conflicts with ease. They didn't administer either occupation with any element of competence. The two are not the same. They require different mindsets, and different skillsets. Not going into Iraq would not have made the US any more competent in Afghanistan. Going into Iraq did not make the US any more incompetent. The problem wasn't opening up two fronts. It was lacking the political will and acumen to set up a competent military occupation in either place. And actually, in terms of occupations, Afghanistan doesn't really matter. There's no real geopolitical importance to it from a US perspective. It's not rich in natural resources. It's not going to develop a booming economy. Obviously the US should not have gone into Iraq, and part of it was the lack of a post war strategy. But more so it was about going in under fraudulent auspices. But from a military perspective there was no issue with opening up a second front for the US military the way Hertling is hinting at, and I resent its false implication. Doesn't change my very high opinion of Hertling, but I do not like this specific tweet.
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I gotta admit, the level of layers necessary and the sheer amount of people who would have to keep their mouth shut for this to succeed as a staged event makes it unbelievable for me. As in, literally, I don’t believe it. I find it way more likely this is the inevitable result of poor communication (as in practically zero) among all interested parties. Everyone outside the inner circle literally communicates with Putin by uploading videos to the internet. Putin makes sure he deincentivizes anyone bring him bad news, insists he’s better informed than they are, with the implicit threat of being tortured and killed if they don’t see reality correctly. The MOD has no interest in communicating directly with Prighozin. Prighozin uses humiliation and condescension to try to get his way with Shiogu and the MOD. A lot of the actions by all parties have been performed in a vacuum of specific and instructions. The very fact Putin has done nothing has been interpreted by all sides in varying ways. I mean, how many times have you guys seen confrontations taken to absurd levels by the mere fact the different sides don’t even communicate with each other any more - or certainly not effectively - and so everyone assumes the worst intent and behavior of the other side, and repercussions are escalated as preemptive strikes? I find it to be common place. Way more common place than tens of thousands of people pretending like a conflict exists when it really doesn’t, up to and including killing folks on either side of it. I’ll have to give a big tip of the hat to Ivan if that’s what they’ve managed to pull off, but I don’t think there’s any real chance of it.
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I get this reference.
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The only thing I'd change is that the plan was to erase Ukraine as a historical mistake. I don't like making it any nicer than what it really was/is.
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This does not come across as anything remotely resembling a "bad" sitcom. This comes across as one of the greatest parodies of all time, only it's real! Stanley Kubrick would be watching this going, "How would I ever top this in a movie?" .
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Let’s not pretend like he had a bunch of them to choose from. Which you didn’t. Yeltzin’s ONLY fine hour doesn’t have the same ring to it.
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It’s mildly interesting to me that instead of taking a former Long Beach national champion to their home arena (Jessica Brennan) we’re now taking someone who spent last year on their staff, lol. I find that hilarious, btw. Really love this hire. My ideal hire would have been a former Longhorn, but this works great. I wonder how the marriage works with her husband? It’s none of my business. Trying to balance careers with a son involved cannot even be remotely easy. So glad to have her on staff!
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The official 2024 GOP Presidential Candidate Clown Car thread!
SL Xpress replied to horn4life's topic in Cloak Room
I mean...he's announced he's running for president. Obviously it's okay not to support him for whatever reason you choose, but to suggest he's quitting the Republican Party instead of trying to make it better from the inside seems completely counterintuitive to me. BTW, his successor at his former congressional district was recently censored by the state Republican Party. There aren't many paths where one can realistically "fight to make the party better from the inside." Running for president isn't realistic, either, but it creates a bigger platform than almost anything else would. -
The official 2024 GOP Presidential Candidate Clown Car thread!
SL Xpress replied to horn4life's topic in Cloak Room
From the sense of creating a more collaborative legislature, it would be ideal. You have more members of the HOR having to appeal to the middle rather than their base. On the other hand, gerrymandered districts can also contribute to a representation of people who hold a minority status in some way. That's the biggest problem with drawing up districts that are as competitive as possible in the general election across the board. It has a huge potential of creating tyranny of the majority scenarios, with minorities (in whatever sense - doesn't have to be about race, although it often is) having little to no representation, and no realistic way of gaining any. I just know that the massive gerrymandering that has gone on since 1990, when the Republican party weaponized it as they gained control of state legislatures, has had a huge influence on the no compromise, confrontational politics we see being employed today. Of course, the dynamics engendered by discourse across social media does, too, and that would still exist. But at least we wouldn't be systemically rewarding the most extreme positions in both parties, which is what we're doing now. Thank you for the clarification on his marriage status. -
The official 2024 GOP Presidential Candidate Clown Car thread!
SL Xpress replied to horn4life's topic in Cloak Room
Or maybe he believes in his message and feels like it's important to add to the process. But yes, holding statewide office seems like a stretch unless/until Republicans start losing. I could still see him being named to a cabinet in a Republican administration, but the Republicans would have to nominate a candidate who could win a general election. Their best hope of that is the Democrats nominating a candidate who is even worse, at least in the eyes of enough voters. Which is always a possibility. -
The official 2024 GOP Presidential Candidate Clown Car thread!
SL Xpress replied to horn4life's topic in Cloak Room
His highest office he's held is the House of Representatives from 2015 to 2021. He's never been a fan of Trump. He's been willing to work across the aisle. He won all 3 of his elections by skin of the teeth margins. His successor has been censured by the Republican Party for not voting close enough to the party line (an indication of how divided that district is - I wish all districts were this divided, actually). He's also never been married, which will be raised on the campaign trail. If someone traditionally votes Democrat but is looking for a Republican candidate that espouses something akin to their views that's never going to happen. There will always be litmus test issues - especially in this day and age - that knocks them out of contention. Same thing in the other direction. I voted for a Democrat for president the last two elections not because I supported the Democrat, but because the Republican candidate was such a significant danger to democracy nothing else mattered. We can be dismissive of Will Hurd for being black running for the Republican nomination, but he has a number of other critical factors going against him that would still be the case if he were lily white. I'll also say that many racists love to show they're not racist by pointing to someone of another race who subscribes to their values entirely. I always think of it as analogous to Dave Chappelle's bit about if you see a gang coming towards you and they have one white person in it, that's the guy you have to be careful of, because there's no telling what he had to do to be a part of that gang. Anyway, he's not winning the nomination. The most I hope for is adding a voice to the cacophony who is using inclusive language rather than demagoguery - which will also eliminate him as much as being black will. At the least running might elevate his profile. But he's going to have to demonstrate he can earn some level of support with his message, and I simply don't think that's going to be the case. -
I mean, it’s coming. Clear as day they’re going to fuck around and find out with that nuclear plant. I HOPE the US and NATO have an extreme response planned and have communicated it to Russia. I wish more was being done to educate the American people about what a danger Russia is to the civilized world and why they need to be severely curtailed here and now. I don’t see the kind of political will to do anything about that nuclear plant. It’s going to completely suck watching a meltdown occur feeling like more could and should have been done to stop it.
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I like my posts long. No doubt about it.
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I'm glad. Here I was under the wrong impression Ross Perot in 1992 and Ralph Nader in 2000 had an impact on the election.
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The official 2024 GOP Presidential Candidate Clown Car thread!
SL Xpress replied to horn4life's topic in Cloak Room
Sort of. I think it's fair to say he's lacked relevancy. -
The official 2024 GOP Presidential Candidate Clown Car thread!
SL Xpress replied to horn4life's topic in Cloak Room
I've given money to his campaign in the past, and I'll do it again this time. I feel like he has less of a chance to win than my last favorite Republican candidate, Jon "Call me crazy, I believe in evolution" Huntsman. -
It's just people fantasizing. There is zero chance a Seal Team 6 goes in Osama bin Laden style to secure a nuclear plant held by Russian forces who may already have the ability to blow it up at any time. One thing you can count on regarding representative governments is that they will always lean towards being reactive. Always. No one gets credit for fixing a problem before it gets worse. You just get blamed for doing something that was always "unnecessary" in the first place, even if the action prevented a much worse problem from occurring. We're not going to do shit about this nuclear power plant until Ukraine gains control of the area. Yes, by then it's likely going to be too late. At least there's some kind of monitoring going on, both with Ukrainian workers still at the plant, the state owned enterprise Energoatom, and the toothless but useful IAEA, and its idealistic and tireless but ultimately ineffectual director general, Rafeal Grossi. I have my fingers crossed Russia isn't going to do something stupid with this nuclear plant, but Russia. That's the best we can hope for realistically, IMO.
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Holy moly. That's dangerous work right there. Thanks for the post. From Noelreports: "SSO units of the 73rd Naval Special Operations Center went behind enemy lines during a recent mission in the south."
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I hope the Russian soldiers in that tank are okay.
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2 RPG shots right into the side of a Ukrainian tank. I have no idea what kind of tank it is. Edit: A T-64BV.
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Report from the front. I've seen the one guy making wisecracks before on a different video in Bakhmut. Took a bunch of mortar shells. The translation keeps saying "mines" but apparently it's a problem with the Ukrainian to English translation. Ukrainian has a word "miny" which is used for a wide range of explosives, not just mines. About 9 1/2 minutes. Worth a watch, IMO.
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I would pay good money to be a fly on the wall for a Bob Huggins rehab assignment or an Alcoholics Anonymous meeting. One of my favorite scenes is from a British series called Cracker (there was a US version, too, but it's not as good). I highly recommend it if you like police dramas, and in particular the kind of interrogation scenes Matthew McConaughey portrayed in the first season of True Detective. In any case, the protagonist, played by Robbie Coltrane in his best role, starts going to group therapy to address his gambling addiction to try to save his marriage. But he can't stand the therapist, so in the middle of the group session he pulls out a deck of cards and starts exhorting everyone in the room to bet on what the next card will be. Soon enough he has everyone broken down going full on into the vice they're there to get treated. I see Bob Huggins doing something similar. Not to make light of alcoholism or any other addiction. But it is to make fun of Bob Huggins.
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“See? It says right here I was overcharged $5. $5!”
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Those Hudl highlights are worth watching simply for some of the DS reactions.
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