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SL Xpress

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Everything posted by SL Xpress

  1. This is really big news if true on the air defense front. Everything feels a little anticlimactic right now after the past 24 hours. I'm also following reports (already posted here) of Ukraine crossing the Dnipro River at the Antonivka bridge. Don't know how true they are, either.
  2. I don't know how Prigozhin dies, but I would personally like for it to involve a sledgehammer.
  3. I want to give a shoutout to @atomheartbevo. One of the things I love about this thread are the people giving their perspectives of what they're seeing, and one of the people whose perspectives I enjoy reading even when (sometimes ESPECIALLY when) I don't agree with him is atomheartbevo. It's not like he was the only one pointing out the craziness between Prigozhin and the MOD, but he is the one who emphasized it the most. The rest of the news sources I read were like me, "well, Russia." I mean, sure it's fucked, but everything about Russia is fucked. But atomheartbevo kept insisting that yes, it's Russia, and yes, it's fucked, but this is especially fucked even for Russia. I feel like he helped emphasize to me how this wasn't going to end well. I kept figuring Putin would step in one way or another, but he didn't. Even here he turned to Lukashenko to mediate. And I'm convinced there's no way this is over. I don't know where it goes from here, but there's still plenty of drama left in this whole episode. Anyway, just a bit of a tip of the cap to atomheartbevo. Thanks for your contributions, and in particular, thank you for emphasizing just how crazy everything always was between Prigozhin and the MOD. Not that you were the only one, but you were the one who emphasized it the most from the very beginning.
  4. We're not going to escape our hardwiring. The remarkable thing is that we're able to overcome it as often as we do, not that we lapse into following it so often. Tribes. The competition for hierarchy. People best suited genetically for various roles. The yearning for freedom and independence, which to many means power over the people around them so they can experience relative freedom compared to others. Our oldest tales are all about this. Our newest tales are about it. Every religion and lifestyle approach. High school can be such a good petri dish because we're often rawer, but those dynamics never go away. Why should they? It's in our DNA. It's the story of human history and prehistory.
  5. My experience has always been that foreigners who have never been to the US don’t truly fathom how little we give a fuck about anywhere else. I mean, they think they know it on some level, but unless you’ve been here for a period of time and tried to engage Americans on events beyond our border, there’s no way of gaining an understanding of how little we give a fuck. The Canadians and wealthy Mexican nationals are my favorite, because they kind of know? And yet they’re still flabbergasted. The ones who are completely blindsided tend to be people who’ve spent a great deal of time in refugee camps before coming to the States. They form their initial impression of Americans based on American relief workers, but that’s a special breed of human being for the most part. It’s like we’ve managed to create the ideal American tinder profile regarding foreign interest, but the reality is we don’t give a shit That said, I will say I’ve received several phone calls/text messages asking me about unfolding events in ways I haven’t before, so that makes me a smidgen hopeful. I still think the dam sabotage justified a bigger reaction than I found it received, but I understand that in some ways this is way more dramatic and exciting.
  6. Place your keys in the bowl as you enter. Edit: too slow
  7. I don’t see it that way - even remotely - but I appreciate the discussion nonetheless. It’s my strongest opinion you’d need buy in from more than just Putin and Prighozin to make this work, and it would be difficult to keep it secret. But we’re not going to convince one another otherwise. In any case we’re both agreeing that’s not a likely scenario regardless of the difficulties involved. It makes for fun conjecture. I don’t see any harm in it, and I’ve enjoyed the back and forth. Thanks for the clarification.
  8. All I can say is this reminds me a lot of when UConn won the national championship in basketball. The similarities are eerie.
  9. Maybe might have led to a divorce without multiple homicides, but I’m with you on the general concept.
  10. Here's my theory: Convicted criminal and opportunist who makes connections with Putin while Putin is on his way up. Putin likes him and sees him as useful. Makes him a billionaire, places him in his inner circle. At some point Prighozin approaches Putin with the idea of starting up a private army, and how they could do the dirty work around the world that would be productive for Russia without the Russian military having to get its hands dirty. A Russian equivalent to Blackwater, only even more active and tied to the state. Wagner proves to be exceptionally useful in both Africa and Syria. They get shit done. The operation is competently run. They spend a lot of money on their personnel, making sure they're equipped extremely well. There's an esprit de corps among members that they're the best of the best. They're valued for their ruthlessness. The best soldiers in the Russian army often sign up with Wagner for the higher pay and the feeling of being with the best. In the meantime Wagner becomes a major source of revenue and power for Prighozin. Putin values him as an asset outside the normal chain of command who is loyal to him. Other members of the inner circle are way of Prigozhin but feel helpless to do anything about it with him having Putin's personal blessing. Also, they see the value in what his organization brings - just wary of the risks but no way to communicate those to Putin in a way that makes sense. Putin decides to invade Ukraine. The swift military action planned for goes to complete shit. The airborne units are left to be massacred after taking over the Antonov airport. The regular forces can't get their shit together, are bogged down by terrain, horrible logistics, and the internal corruption that pervades the regular army. Hence the need for something like Wagner in the first place. Wagner troops in general create better results where ever they are deployed compared to the regular army. Again, they're better equipped, better trained, better morale. They're a private version of the most elite VDV units. The offensive bogs down. Prighozin is out of his mind with the incompetency of the Russian army, and being forced to work alongside these fools. They're lazy, stupid, have no sense of professionalism, and everyone is out to save their own skin. He somehow convinces Putin, whether directly or through a third party, to put Wagner in charge of an offensive and let him show how to effectively carry one out. The offensive chosen was in the direction of Bakhmut. As part of this effort he's given permission to recruit convicts out of the penal system to be used as meat. Prighozin is very charismatic, and as a former prisoner himself, he knows how to speak to these people in a compelling way. He signs up tens of thousands to supplement his forces. Lacking armor and sufficient artillery under their direct control, Wagner develops the strategy of sending in convicts in waves of 5 or 6 at a time, ferreting out the placement of Ukrainian defenses and weak points. After either the convicts secure a point, or the defense is softened up sufficiently, they then send in the regular Wagner shock troops. This is done over and over relentlessly, in Soledar and then in Bakhmut itself. Given that this is the only spot along the entire front where any progress is being made whatsoever, it's seen as a success. At some point Prighozin is cut off from access to Putin. I have no idea when it occurs, but it obviously occurs. Given Russian politics and Prighozin's lack of a power base outside of Putin and Wagner, he chooses to go all in. Backing down at this point would mean losing everything to the long knives in Putin's inner circle. I don't know that he has a long term plan per se, other than like Baelish opined, chaos is a ladder. I can't imagine he saw himself as displacing Putin directly, but I certainly feel like he saw himself as a potential replacement for Putin, depending on how things worked out. Bakhmut is taken over, or at least the rubble of the town is taken over. Prighozin declares victory and begins to pull his forces out. Shiogu sees Prighozin's limited utility at an end, and makes a move to eliminate Wagner as a separate source of power. I'm assuming with Putin's blessing. Who knows, though. Maybe everyone is acting in a vacuum. Prighozin sees this as an existential threat in more ways than one. He escalates his rhetoric and his actions, but eventually sees no other course of action than to declare war on the Russian military command. My guess is it's probably sold to Wagner fighters as an act of righteous rebellion, Potemkin style. I don't care how much ammunition or other supplies they've stashed away, it won't be enough. There will have to be some way of dealing with air power, of refueling, replacing ammo stocks, and feeding the troops. This won't be a sustained activity. Even if it's true fighter pilots refused to fire on them (which I don't believe) eventually they'll find fighter pilots who will. I do not believe this was the end goal at virtually any point along the timeline. I believe Prighozin felt like eventually Putin would step in in his favor, because his organization is the only one getting anything done, and they still provide a lot of value in Africa in the short term, and around the world in whatever hotspots arise in the long term. But at the end of the day Prighozin has had the rug pulled out from under him. Better to go out with guns blazing than meekly submit to a kangaroo court and a bullet in the brain.
  11. I don't agree even a little bit with the facile comparison to Iraq and Afghanistan. Just an easy tweet to make that won't be challenged. The US won both conflicts with ease. They didn't administer either occupation with any element of competence. The two are not the same. They require different mindsets, and different skillsets. Not going into Iraq would not have made the US any more competent in Afghanistan. Going into Iraq did not make the US any more incompetent. The problem wasn't opening up two fronts. It was lacking the political will and acumen to set up a competent military occupation in either place. And actually, in terms of occupations, Afghanistan doesn't really matter. There's no real geopolitical importance to it from a US perspective. It's not rich in natural resources. It's not going to develop a booming economy. Obviously the US should not have gone into Iraq, and part of it was the lack of a post war strategy. But more so it was about going in under fraudulent auspices. But from a military perspective there was no issue with opening up a second front for the US military the way Hertling is hinting at, and I resent its false implication. Doesn't change my very high opinion of Hertling, but I do not like this specific tweet.
  12. I gotta admit, the level of layers necessary and the sheer amount of people who would have to keep their mouth shut for this to succeed as a staged event makes it unbelievable for me. As in, literally, I don’t believe it. I find it way more likely this is the inevitable result of poor communication (as in practically zero) among all interested parties. Everyone outside the inner circle literally communicates with Putin by uploading videos to the internet. Putin makes sure he deincentivizes anyone bring him bad news, insists he’s better informed than they are, with the implicit threat of being tortured and killed if they don’t see reality correctly. The MOD has no interest in communicating directly with Prighozin. Prighozin uses humiliation and condescension to try to get his way with Shiogu and the MOD. A lot of the actions by all parties have been performed in a vacuum of specific and instructions. The very fact Putin has done nothing has been interpreted by all sides in varying ways. I mean, how many times have you guys seen confrontations taken to absurd levels by the mere fact the different sides don’t even communicate with each other any more - or certainly not effectively - and so everyone assumes the worst intent and behavior of the other side, and repercussions are escalated as preemptive strikes? I find it to be common place. Way more common place than tens of thousands of people pretending like a conflict exists when it really doesn’t, up to and including killing folks on either side of it. I’ll have to give a big tip of the hat to Ivan if that’s what they’ve managed to pull off, but I don’t think there’s any real chance of it.
  13. The only thing I'd change is that the plan was to erase Ukraine as a historical mistake. I don't like making it any nicer than what it really was/is.
  14. This does not come across as anything remotely resembling a "bad" sitcom. This comes across as one of the greatest parodies of all time, only it's real! Stanley Kubrick would be watching this going, "How would I ever top this in a movie?" .
  15. Let’s not pretend like he had a bunch of them to choose from. Which you didn’t. Yeltzin’s ONLY fine hour doesn’t have the same ring to it.
  16. It’s mildly interesting to me that instead of taking a former Long Beach national champion to their home arena (Jessica Brennan) we’re now taking someone who spent last year on their staff, lol. I find that hilarious, btw. Really love this hire. My ideal hire would have been a former Longhorn, but this works great. I wonder how the marriage works with her husband? It’s none of my business. Trying to balance careers with a son involved cannot even be remotely easy. So glad to have her on staff!
  17. I mean...he's announced he's running for president. Obviously it's okay not to support him for whatever reason you choose, but to suggest he's quitting the Republican Party instead of trying to make it better from the inside seems completely counterintuitive to me. BTW, his successor at his former congressional district was recently censored by the state Republican Party. There aren't many paths where one can realistically "fight to make the party better from the inside." Running for president isn't realistic, either, but it creates a bigger platform than almost anything else would.
  18. From the sense of creating a more collaborative legislature, it would be ideal. You have more members of the HOR having to appeal to the middle rather than their base. On the other hand, gerrymandered districts can also contribute to a representation of people who hold a minority status in some way. That's the biggest problem with drawing up districts that are as competitive as possible in the general election across the board. It has a huge potential of creating tyranny of the majority scenarios, with minorities (in whatever sense - doesn't have to be about race, although it often is) having little to no representation, and no realistic way of gaining any. I just know that the massive gerrymandering that has gone on since 1990, when the Republican party weaponized it as they gained control of state legislatures, has had a huge influence on the no compromise, confrontational politics we see being employed today. Of course, the dynamics engendered by discourse across social media does, too, and that would still exist. But at least we wouldn't be systemically rewarding the most extreme positions in both parties, which is what we're doing now. Thank you for the clarification on his marriage status.
  19. Or maybe he believes in his message and feels like it's important to add to the process. But yes, holding statewide office seems like a stretch unless/until Republicans start losing. I could still see him being named to a cabinet in a Republican administration, but the Republicans would have to nominate a candidate who could win a general election. Their best hope of that is the Democrats nominating a candidate who is even worse, at least in the eyes of enough voters. Which is always a possibility.
  20. His highest office he's held is the House of Representatives from 2015 to 2021. He's never been a fan of Trump. He's been willing to work across the aisle. He won all 3 of his elections by skin of the teeth margins. His successor has been censured by the Republican Party for not voting close enough to the party line (an indication of how divided that district is - I wish all districts were this divided, actually). He's also never been married, which will be raised on the campaign trail. If someone traditionally votes Democrat but is looking for a Republican candidate that espouses something akin to their views that's never going to happen. There will always be litmus test issues - especially in this day and age - that knocks them out of contention. Same thing in the other direction. I voted for a Democrat for president the last two elections not because I supported the Democrat, but because the Republican candidate was such a significant danger to democracy nothing else mattered. We can be dismissive of Will Hurd for being black running for the Republican nomination, but he has a number of other critical factors going against him that would still be the case if he were lily white. I'll also say that many racists love to show they're not racist by pointing to someone of another race who subscribes to their values entirely. I always think of it as analogous to Dave Chappelle's bit about if you see a gang coming towards you and they have one white person in it, that's the guy you have to be careful of, because there's no telling what he had to do to be a part of that gang. Anyway, he's not winning the nomination. The most I hope for is adding a voice to the cacophony who is using inclusive language rather than demagoguery - which will also eliminate him as much as being black will. At the least running might elevate his profile. But he's going to have to demonstrate he can earn some level of support with his message, and I simply don't think that's going to be the case.
  21. I mean, it’s coming. Clear as day they’re going to fuck around and find out with that nuclear plant. I HOPE the US and NATO have an extreme response planned and have communicated it to Russia. I wish more was being done to educate the American people about what a danger Russia is to the civilized world and why they need to be severely curtailed here and now. I don’t see the kind of political will to do anything about that nuclear plant. It’s going to completely suck watching a meltdown occur feeling like more could and should have been done to stop it.
  22. I like my posts long. No doubt about it.
  23. I'm glad. Here I was under the wrong impression Ross Perot in 1992 and Ralph Nader in 2000 had an impact on the election.
  24. Sort of. I think it's fair to say he's lacked relevancy.
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