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MonkeyCigarette

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Everything posted by MonkeyCigarette

  1. In all seriousness I'll ask because I'd like to add it to my dropbox repository of artifacts.
  2. I am actually agreeing with you and saying the same things here. Where I feel like we diverge is probably at the tweets and insane ramblings of Willful Horn, where the void filled is never enough when it comes to wealthy and lucky people. "He paid $11bn in taxes, but it's not enough! He's worth so much we should take almost all of it. Especially because the government spurred his business along with $4.5bn in subsidy!" Two different people read the same case study and get two different interpretations: one sees it as a business case and success story for government subsidies and how awesome they are and should be utilized, someone else sees it as more fuel for the resentment of those "others", those mean old billionaires who aren't paying enough to the government.
  3. Attacking billionaires is equally weird. Different side of the same coin, it seems. That said, I don't think you are attacking billionaires and I'm not actually specifically trying to defend billionaires.
  4. I only assigned that as a continuation of an argument made upthread that insinuated that the only reason this guy was successful/billionaire was because he was a socialist himself due to his relationship with the gov's tax subsidies. That argument was made to normalize socialism as a good thing and trying to make Tesla look like a product of socialism and a socialist win. I think there is truth in that by the way because I think there is an argument that can be made that Tesla doesn't hockey stick and burns up before leaving the stratosphere if not for the government help.
  5. I agree, it’s super conservative and not taking into account the entire blend: - the value that Tesla pays in Corporate taxes (if any) - the value that Tesla pays in employer taxes as they exist, and grow, as a going concern - the value Tesla pays in real estate taxes for factories and buildings - the value Tesla provides in employing Americans— from the super smart knowledge workers down to the not so brilliant folks working the factory lines or shop floor. - the value in helping to legitimize non-fossil fuel consumption and starting the eVehicle revolution (there would be no Rivian, Lordstown, or even Ford Lightning without Tesla) and what that means for climate health eventually. So yes, obviously just looking at the $11bn that Elon paid is a tip of the iceberg on the government’s ROI for the subsidy. I’m not an Elon fan boy, I think he’s gotten lucky and is not a genius, but I can also appreciate his contributions up to and including putting $11bn back to the government in taxes. It’s weird people want to even poopooh that with “yea it’s the most anyones paid in taxes and it’s a lot but….he’s still a multibillionaire so it’s not enough!”
  6. Sure, everyone agrees with that and that wasn’t my point. Again, and this is a bipartisan point, I was talking about how 4.5b in tax subsidies for Tesla turned into an $11b return for the government. Every CFO in the world is looking for how to spend $1 dollar to make $3. The Government invested in Tesla/electric in the sense the subsidy was an investment and doubled the money as an ROI. Pretty cool. Further, my point is there is absolutely an ROI and a hard money value that can be tied to literally every single social measure in BBB. The smart thing would be to attach to that value for voters and politicians versus hoping the vague benefits scratch the itch of those on the left side of the bleeding hearts scale. You have to defend the value of what you want and the emotional defense doesn’t work for the democrats like it does for republicans (they took our jobs! They are teaching Marxist crt in the classroom, etc.) The consistent response seems to be “people are too stupid to understand, etc.” and I think that’s a cop out. It seems more like politicians are too stupid to do some basic leg work to distill society ROI and savings for all, by implementing social programs.
  7. Y'all stop, Willfully Horn means well.
  8. My post was only to say that the government subsidizing Tesla's to the $4.5bn number that was cited up thread was actually an excellent investment. 2x returns and got $11bn for the trouble. That's hard money ROI. There is an ROI for investments into a bunch of the social stuff that democrats want to do; where democrats fail is that there is no value-based arguments that could make people feel better about the massive investments into things that look and feel (emotionally) like waste or hand-outs, when in reality they are investments with ROI for all of us. If I'm Biden I would have created a value engineering committee and made Katie Porter tackle this on day 1 of the presidency. The way she whips that mini-whiteboard I bet she is a whiz with excel.
  9. That’s why I’ve always heard it’s best to leave; the company knows you are on the take and you will be first one gone if things go south. That said I had a buddy negotiate an amazing retention non-recoverable draw. He poured through the numbers, put his pitch deck together carefully, practiced it on a few of us, all in all spent 20 hours on the thing. At the time it seemed absurd but it made sense when he shared the numbers and said “this retention bonus is my biggest deal of the quarter”. Of course now that the draw period is over and Q4 is winding down, he’s halfway out the door.
  10. Agree. I’d say the most fundamental way is that, without the government protection of the military the rich would never be secure and always a target. We take that for granted.
  11. The guy who just paid $11bn in taxes tho?
  12. Gotcha. Yea I feel bad; was in Manhattan early last week and brought Omicron back and infected everyone with breakthrough. Glass half full is now that I’m a 2x Covid survivor who was fully vaccinated, I have super super duper immunity now. Until the next variant, at least.
  13. Is it a breakthrough case if they haven't been vaccinated? I thought a breakthrough was a positive case after you've been fully vaxxed (e.g. the virus broke the lines of defense).
  14. So people are going to be mad at politicians because they don't understand how things work. The exact same issue with people mad at Biden because they don't understand how things, like gas prices, work. But in this instance it's a good thing people will be energized because it works in the favor of the right team? Ultimately I think this child tax issue is an interesting one on its own, because of the recoverable draw nature of it. Sure people might wrongly (but since perception is reality, rightly to them) associate their free money being taken away by Republicans + Manchin, but the other side of that coin is come March or April when these same people are expecting $5k and get $500, they are going to howl at Biden (even though it won't be his fault).
  15. My understanding was the child tax money was just a pre-payment, in 6 smaller chunks monthly, of what you would have gotten anyways in the spring as part of your tax return. If I am correct about the above, then why would anyone be upset or energized unless the prevailing mood is that the child tax credit per child is not enough as it stands currently? The only two logical answers are 1) I don't understand the child tax money that is coming monthly correctly or 2) the general public doesn't understand this money is a recoverable draw. If it's the latter, I think the energy is going to be the opposite of what you think it will be, and where it will be directed and the blame will go, once spring comes around and there is no anticipated "windfall" that people have been trained to expect.
  16. So, to recap, correct me where I am wrong: 1.The BBB infrastructure and "human infrastructure" (which I still think is a stretch of a definition) was initially one proposed bill for like half a dozen Trillion bucks, or something I don't recall the exact amount, but a lot of money. This was because the more progressive wing of the party was demanding some more progressive programs get funded or else they wouldn't vote for it. 2.Joe Manchin and his couple of rogue Democrats, the DINO's or Mavericks, said No, this is too much. We won't go for it. Too expensive and too much liberal stink for us barely democrats within the southern culture and aesthetic. 3.Biden tried to make it work for a few weeks, was rightfully told it was a waste of time and instead to break up the bill into two parts. Get the first easier and quicker win on infrastructure and work on the harder to sell package of "human infrastructure" later. 4. At this point everyone-- democrats and republicans alike-- see this as at least a minor L. Lots of assumptions that once the infrastructure bill is passed that this other stuff will be passed and lots of Democrats on this site called it out and said the same, this was a bad political maneuver to get the human stuff done, but there was also so agreement that Biden needed this infrastructure deal because he had to have a skin on the wall to show he could actually do something. 5. The $1.9T BBB gets done. Most sane people are cool with this bill in a vacuum-- something got done and it's good for the country. I know I was and am happy about it. 6. All the while Joe Manchin and a couple of the holdouts are being recruited by the head coach himself-- Biden has him over for dinner at the White house, etc. Gets some verbal assurances, etc. 7. Manchin goes back on his word and says he won't vote for it. Too much zany New Deal type free money in there for his and his fundraiser/corporate backers tastes. 8. So Biden announces last week that he is putting this on ice and will instead work on voting rights bill. -- If all the above is accurate, why have we not heard any outcry or activism from the progressive wing that was wanting all this stuff in the first place from point 1? At least I haven't seen or heard any political fire from those folks. Beyond that, this isn't even a referendum on Biden as much as it is politics-- the big tent of the Democratic party is not able to reach a consensus with such a slim majority and politically with inflation being where it is, people are scared to put their name on another couple of trillion dollars for social entitlements and welfare. Republicans taking a victory lap seems a bit premature, politically to me, unless I'm missing something here. Also seems like I might be missing why Republicans are so sure that 2022 is going to be a massacre.
  17. Here is a thought and debate I’ve had with my real life rogue gallery of hardened, battle-tested mercenary sales pros out for the 7 figure W2: - Money has been cheap the last few years; lots of mid-stage start ups are offering amazing packages with great RSU amounts. - there is a huge attrition problem at almost every organization out there right now because a) nobody wants to work and b) true enterprise pros are in high demand - Inflation is up 7% or whatever - wage growth is set to follow due to inflation (though not in lock step) and due to aforementioned supply demand issues With all that, is it a great time to leave your job even if you are happy, in order to lock in a comp plan that takes you to the next level? Say it takes you from 140/140 to 180/180, for example? My stance is yes, because with measures to fight inflation, this period of wage growth is temporary I think…this is a window of opportunity and in time to take advantage and once you are at a salary band it’s rare you backslide short of a massive recession right?
  18. I would argue a lot of software can be canned demos but yea, integration software is messy and nasty and needs predefined use case and value to be worth anyone’s time. As an aside I feel for you selling that stuff, go get a better job at that start up you were talking about!
  19. Okay what do you sell? Industry/product?
  20. Again, what if this guy doesn't need the growth of a D-1 school to achieve his goals because he is extremely talented and will have a Neon Deion co-sign? Then is it okay to take $1.5mm to get drafted #7 overall instead of #4? I agree that if he is not a turn-key, near-NFL ready type talent whose talent, measurables and numbers won't get him picked in the first round and he's going to have to work on his craft and make a name for himself, then it would be wise to join a different program. We don't know this kids talent to any empirical measure right now and it seems like he and his folks are either sufficiently confident and betting on him being the man, or they are betting that he can take the $1.5mm and transfer if they've miscalculated, or both. At the end of the day the liberal transfer portal is the linchpin that makes this calculated risk/investment work; he can pull the ripcord at the first sign of damage to his future viability and earnability (which may or may not hurt his personal brand, albeit) and in the short term he's a) made national headline news in an interesting/positive way b) he's gotten a lot of respect and attention from the culture who will be following him and rooting for him and c) he's a millionaire in the short term (Time value of money, baby) with little risk to whatever millions he could make in the future because, again, if JSU proves to be something that tarnishes his stock he can easily transfer to a place that could rehab it.
  21. I didn't say highly-rated-but-still-not-sure-if-amazing talent, which I agree is a coin flip at best sometimes. I said "amazing talent". Amazing talent does not need the Bama, Clemson, LSU's to provide it bonafides and/or prepare for the next level. That said, let's pretend this guy isn't an amazing talent after all. There is nothing stopping him from blaming his mediocrity on JSU facilities or schedule or talent or coaching and just entering the portal and joining a P5 where he can hone his skills and get NFL-ready (with a pro-rated amount of the $1.5mm in his bank account). Again, low risk, high reward.
  22. I think we all can agree that when you are an amazing talent, it matters not a whit if you go to JSU or FSU or anywhere else. Barring injury and/or stupidity off the field, you will get to the next level. If you are a second-tier talent or worse, I agree with the argument that you need to be playing (growing, and progressing, and getting reps) against the best out there to get you sharpened and capable and/or attractive to others at the next level. Knowing the above, and if we buy this kid is the amazing talent that his ranking suggests, I don't agree with the take that this is stupid and throwing away an opportunity. The generous reading of the situation is that this amazing talent is being intentional and thoughtful about how to use his skills to invest in his community and give back to the culture/race that has supported and invested in him and that, like a Southwest Airline flyer, he could have chosen anywhere but he chose JSU. The more cynical reading is that this kid is building a personal brand of being an intentional and thoughtful player who is using his skills to try and champion for an HBCU because ESG/DEI is so hot right now and everyone wants to align and invest in that space and this guy is going to set himself up for some great off-the-field opportunities above and beyond the 7 figure payday he will be getting from going to JSU (which again, doesn't affect his NFL-future +/- 10% due to his talent). Oh and by the way, the guy is a DB who will be coached and mentored by one of the greatest DB's ever. Who also will be highly celebrated for this recruiting coup and will have his choice of a P5 job soon and will remember the kid who trusted him and bought into his vision and message when the rest of the (white) world thought he was crazy. But most of all, this is the lowest risk and highest reward (all the social capital plus the 7 figure pay day) because the transfer portal exists. The kid can show up, think the cafeteria food sucks and if the NIL money falls through or they start playing with his money, he can go to Bama the next day. Or if somehow Derka is right and over time the team or competition is hurting his draft stock and rankings or whatever, he can leave post-haste. Low risk to do this.
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