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Royalfan5

Certifiably Surly
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Everything posted by Royalfan5

  1. Also in livestock news, Tyson is idling a pork plant in Waterloo, IA which is generating headlines now, buried in the story is they got their Columbus Junction plant back up and running, so while it's doesn't make things better it shouldn't make things worse for the moment.
  2. For your morning livestock update. Fresh pork was up again but seems to be leveling off for bellies, still about 8 bucks below the spike high. Had a client tell me today that the pork integrator he feeds for got his buildings clear a couple weeks ago, and restocked, but they are now 15-20 loads backed up overall as they can only get so many into Fremont(Hormel), and Smithfield in Crete is swamped with Sioux Falls overrrun, and Seaboard in St. Joe is taking member owners first and only has a little spare capacity. Beef values surged again but choice looks to be leveling off some and that is the bulk of your supply. Cow plants seem to be holding up better labor wise but are swamped with dairy and beef fulls which should help to hold ground beef down a bit overtime. Client with ready cattle in Kansas is backed up on three loads currently going to Dodge City
  3. Yeah, we don't have enough healthy workers to process the ready cattle. There's more ready cattle than packers can handle, so their cheap, and there's more beef demand than the packers can meet, so it's expensive. Bottlenecks rarely favor the consumer.
  4. On the packing plant progress, cattle capacity utilization fell to about 70% today, hogs fell to about 65%, hopefully cattle can comeback a little to tomorrow if Tyson in Dakota City is back up, and they can get a Saturday shift. Hogs badly need to get something unfucked between everybody but Seaboard fucking up things horribly. Packers have good enough margins here that they could shoot every 3rd animal and toss them in a hole outback instead of processing, and still make money, and that would probably be the best thing for the cattle and hog guys at this point.
  5. For your morning livestock update, beef prices have now taken out the first spring high, pretty solidly too, and hogs are getting closer to $70, with the recent high being $80, and bellies are close to 100 now. It sounds like packers are still able to meet standing sales orders to retail, but very little spot pork to be had.
  6. As I am a non-medical person, and I can’t remember seeing this discussed anywhere, is there any correlation between exposure time and illness and severity and such? E.g. passing an infected person in a store aisle vs. sitting at an adjacent table in a restaurant vs. next to them at church or a ballgame or flying?
  7. Guys finding out the hard way that its a deliverable commodity
  8. Livestock update, cattle held at about 75% of capacity with Tyson-Dakota City out today and tomorrow, but hopefully just those two day. Hogs were about 70% as well, but better than a week ago, with still no news on restarting Sioux Falls, and Worthington down indefinitly as well. The big back up in hogs is going to be in NE NE, NC Iowa, South Dakota and Minnesota. You get further south and plants are holding up better. Starting to see poultry issues in the South too.
  9. So much for telling guys it can't trade below 0
  10. On a meat note, beef prices are now within $5 of the recent spike high, #hogs with $13, with a big jump in bellies today. JBS has 20K a day plant down in Minnesota now for hogs, and it looks like we will be close to 70% capacity on runs to start the week. Short term there still shouldn't be major issues with meat supply, it's the back end where it will get wild especially on hogs because backed up cattle can be slowed down on gain, and hogs will probably have to be gassed or shot if they can't find processor space, and that will leave a hole this fall.
  11. There not as bad. If it gets into a plant it's bad news, but some plants haven't been hit at all so far like Smithfield in Crete, and Cargill in Schuyler
  12. Well my point is that it's going to rip through those super fast which we creates a big population of spreads super fast, and you tie that to locals not taking it seriously it'll blow up. The Plants are churches on steroids when it comes to spreading, and you have a ton of multi-generational homes among the plant workers. If you don't have the plants, you wouldn't have near the problems, you'd look more like Gage County where it got into the nursing home in Adams, but not near the community spread.
  13. It's the packing plants blowing up in those two counties, same with Dawson
  14. I think they're trying to. The big spike day was when a multigenerational household all tested positive, and it seems like the bulk that isn't the same house hold, is either 20 year olds or 60 year olds
  15. So the effects of this on voting coming forward, based on mail in requests so far for Next months primary in Nebraska turnout will blow away a normal primary, and there ain’t shit on the ballot this year except Democratic primary’s, which are usually irrelevant here.
  16. For a comparison sake, the city of Lincoln which around 285k, the gov’t says we can test 150 per day with 2 day turnaround, and that about 60-65 a day have been turning up for testing. Been averaging about 4-5 positives a day.
  17. That last sentence is why it’s going apeshit in packing plants
  18. One side note to all the meat packing stuff, Cargill’s unionized plants have been solidly kicking everyone else’s ass on production and keeping workers healthier so far.
  19. https://www.omaha.com/news/crime/feds-nebraska-pharmacist-virginia-drug-dealer-plotted-to-blow-up-rival-pharmacy-in-auburn/article_1639dc7f-55b9-545f-ba2a-35770ac28389.html Pill slinger in small SE Nebraska town tries to hire guy off the “dark web” to blow up the other pharmacy in town because he assumes that he will be able to claim the business to disguise the amount of opioids he had going out the back door, and it goes comically wrong
  20. Pork values climbed again today, so we've got the cutout back to $60, recent high was $80 so we're not seeing extraordinary numbers at this point there. Cattle values were up 3 bucks, and about 15% on the week, but we're still about 15% off the recent high.
  21. For your daily livestock update, cattle runs slipped a little to about 75% of capacity, but we are expected to see about 40% run tomorrow on overtime shifts, hogs slipped to about 80%, but about a 45% run tomorrow to make up some difference. Cash values of processed meat weren't reported due to USDA tech issues.
  22. For your daily livestock update. Cattle slaughter held steady around 80% capacity with beef values continuing their rally, we are about 5% below the recent high there, and not out of line for normal this time of year. Hogs stayed steady around 85% capacity, with pork values up solidly this AM, but well off the recent highs with bellies leading. CDC is in Sioux Falls trying to help Smithfield get going again.
  23. One last bit on the meat for today, pork cutout values were slightly lower with belly values down the most of anything, beef values were up decently, but still well of the recent high. If we can get some of the shackle space back next week, the current losses should be offset for the most part with heavier carcass weights.
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