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Royalfan5

Certifiably Surly
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Everything posted by Royalfan5

  1. So after about 3 weeks of progress, Tyson had to shut down another pork packing plant in Iowa with 555 of 2400 workers currently testing positive. As long it’s just that one it shouldn’t hurt the recovery too badly
  2. Cattle plants ran at 90% again today with improvement slowing a bit, boxed beef values faded a little bit again with good movement again this AM, hog plants gained again, and we are probably getting pretty close to being in balance there, fresh pork jumped this AM on what is likely export business. Retail prices are probably at a plateau for now until we can really chew into the backlog of animals, which we should be doing by mid-June.
  3. Still deals to be had to buy on the hoof for individual use. My BIL lives in Houston and he's getting a roughly 800 pound grass fed Angus steer for $1000. Processing is only going to run 400-500. So 1400 for a whole cow. That seems like a screaming deal to me, but I've only ever bought whole pigs. Cattle are relatively cheap, and processing’s not bad if you can find it, but getting the locker dates been the rub.
  4. Livestock wise cattle hit 90% of packing capacity today, and boxed beef was solidly lower as well, same for pork. Shortages should be pretty well wrapped up at this point.
  5. For your livestock update, hog runs finally got back above 400K head, still probably need two more weeks to get back towards capacity, would like to see 425K by the end of the week. Fresh pork values jumped out of the weekend, likely because of Chinese export interest returning along with seasonal belly demand with bellies up $56 this AM. Cattle are getting closer to 90% capacity, and could hit 95% by this weekend at the current pace. Boxed beef continues to drop with better availability and big movement for restocking this AM.
  6. Trying to fuck the unemployment rate chicken ain’t going to age well real quick like
  7. I went to one of Nebraska’s primitive state parks today and hiked a bit on the banks of the Missouri. It seemed like everyone was pretty well behaved and distant, but the trails are kind of muddy and rattlesnakey this time of year too, and other than kayaking one of the oxbows you’re not doing much in the river with the water up a bit.
  8. I’ve been real proud of the church I attend saying that no we won’t reopen until cases go down and stay down, all while adding online services, zoom group studies, video children sermons and pick up craft projects, and keeping our food bank garden going.
  9. https://www.nationalgeographic.com/history/2020/05/coronavirus-upends-meatpacking-jobs-football-grand-island-nebraska/ This is good read on the impact on meat packing communities. The feedlot pictured in the article is one I work with too
  10. For your livestock update. Cattle kept running above 100K, with the Saturday run looking decent, boxed beef is below $400 now, and cattle on feed showed lower numbers again with the slow placement which eventually will give the cattle feeder leverage. Hogs stayed just below 400K but was only a few off the year ago run, and with Saturday numbers probably showing the best we have in 6 weeks there. Fresh pork values are on a glide path lower as well.
  11. Some folks just can't pass up an opportunity to tell white folks they should be scared
  12. For your livestock update, cattle posted the second day in a row above 100K, with a good Saturday run week could be close to year ago levels which if sustained will start to pull cattle ahead and bring weights down helping feeders out. Boxed beef remains on a gentle decline with improved movement. Hogs failed to top 400K today, with the pace of recovery slowing down a bit, but fresh pork is popping back onto the spot market which is a good sign, and the amount of euthanized hogs may keep numbers down into summer, which could put a 425K number pretty close to the amount of ready hogs and really juice that cash market later on. Also China took a large amount of pork shipments last week, but canceled some purchases at the highs.
  13. I saw that, but the offtake rates of meat vs. fake meat when the stores got hit tells another story.
  14. For your livestock update, cattle packing runs topped 100K for the first time in 3 weeks or so, and continuing to close the gap on capacity. Beef prices found a bit of a bid, which is normal with Memorial Day coming up, but the return to normal should keep things stair stepping down. Hogs just missed cracking 400K today, with pork prices rebounding as well as we see ham restocking push the cutout up, but belly prices are basically back to normal.
  15. For your livestock update, packer runs continue to rise with cattle nearing 85% of capacity, and hogs about 83%, fresh pork continues to edge lower, but remains about 30% ahead of normal, fresh beef faded as well but looks to be getting into its plateau and roughly 80% ahead of normal for this time of year. At the pace we are recovering packer capacity, the first full week of June should have us back to 100% or so.
  16. For your livestock update, packing runs continue to edge higher with cattle almost to 100K a day vs. 120K needed from a low of 72K, hogs are back to 375K vs 470K needed, fresh pork values edged lower today but remain pretty elevated, beef prices were down pretty sharply this morning but remain near double normal, but certain cuts are getting discounted now as retailers restock depleted supplies.
  17. Noted Civility Scold Ben Sasse covered himself in glory with his covid commencement speech https://www.omaha.com/news/state_and_regional/watch-now-sasse-ridicules-people-named-jeremy-trying-to-joke-rips-thugs-in-china-in/article_115b3a24-e69d-5e47-8e4f-8730652bd785.html
  18. It was more my dad’s thing but you still have to trot it out from time to time
  19. I come from a line of dairymen and hog guys for the most part, the hat habit doesn’t get formed that way, although exceptions were made for driving around in Firebirds
  20. Minus the hat you’re not super far off, current Corona beard notwithstanding
  21. On a local to me note for comparison, Lancaster Co. Nebraska, where Lincoln is went from 300 positives last week to 188 this week, with 172 two weeks ago. The positive rate dropped from 14% to 7% this week from the two weeks before. The 11th was the first day of reopening here. That being said there’s been some fuckery with the packing plant outbreaks, just across the county line at the Smithfield plant in Crete, and the satellite ham plant in Lincoln
  22. For your livestock update, packer runs for cattle and hogs were better, with bigger Saturday runs expected, more improvement should come next week. Pork values have plateaued but have seen good support with restocking and the catch up of skilled labor in fabricating. Beef values are about 10% below the peak, with a plateau likely coming soon in the 380 to 410 range.
  23. For your livestock update, boxed beef continued to fade a bit, and packer runs were steady to slightly higher, pork spiked to new highs suddenly this AM, but packer runs continued to increase. The pork spike is likely tied to actual available supplies on the spot market and restocking with some things available again, spot beef is hitting the market as well which should ease the hamburger price spike.
  24. The afternoon beef price update finally showed trade moving lower, so I think the high should be in there, hogs prices are holding near the highs still but the worst should be past now.
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