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Royalfan5

Certifiably Surly
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Everything posted by Royalfan5

  1. I'm a commodity broker with a bunch of livestock clients, and have my own cattle most of the time
  2. On the pork note, AM pork values were up just short of 5.00 a carcass with bellies up about 21 bucks, which is still cheap. Beef was up about 3 bucks a hundred on carcasses
  3. My local grocery store has cooler full of 10lb food service packs so you’ll probably have the chance to do so soon
  4. It’s the fresh bacon index now, and bacon is historically cheap right now because 70 percent typically goes through food service and cold storage is jammed full.
  5. And China’s bought a record amount of pork the last month. JBS(Brazil), and Tyson(Piggy) have major issues too. Cargill has kept it together better than the others so far, but that’s typical for them. The biggest problems right now is big numbers expended a lot ahead of the trade deal/asf and theres not any slack in the system unless Seaboard can pull another shift out of their ass somewhere labor wise.
  6. The JBS beef plant in Grand Island has almost caught Omaha for Nebraska cases. Yet, Tyson in Lexington, Cargill in Schuyler for beef, and Smithfield in Crete, and Tyson in Madison have seen nothing so far.
  7. We have so god damn much bacon in storage it’s cheaper than it was at the all time lows on 1998, and it’s been going to rendering plants to clear space
  8. We really only started to back off middle of last week, and were pulling forward ahead of that, so it’s not critical right now, and other plants are pushing chain speed where there have been less issues.
  9. For scale that plant can kill 22,000 a day out of 507,000 national capacity. This plant is getting the pub, but Tyson had a similar sized plant in Iowa go down last week. We also have a fuckload of pork in cold storage. It’s more of a farmer issue than a consumer issue at this point. Same with the JBS cattle plants battling the same issue.
  10. I will note today on my early AM grocery run, that there were no longer milk and egg limits and butter was on sale. The toilet paper and paper towels were fully stocked with normal brands but still limited. There was also liquid hand soap for there first time in a month. No sanitizer yet though. About 50/50 on mask wearing
  11. https://journalstar.com/news/local/the-harrowing-story-of-lincolns-first-case-of-community-spread-covid-19-recovered-and-happily/article_ac0d77a8-3a49-5db8-82e7-78ad7edd4b68.html#tracking-source=home-top-story A story local to me. 52-year old contractor in good shape spent 6-day on a vent, and 14 in the hospital. Had the malaria drug as part of the treatment, ended up down 30 lbs, and just starting to walk around now.
  12. All those folk are probably doing useful work, so it seems like we should find ways to help them out. Maybe repurpose school buses to thin people out for the time being or something
  13. You still have to have the capacity to process the milk into the other products and store it. That's the bottle neck. The government can buy products but until they've cleared the storage space, they can't keep processing, and they can't turn it all into powered milk because there is only so much capacity to do that.
  14. Look I'm a commodity broker, all the livestock markets are basically fucked right now. They're in the processes of getting unfucked, but when dealing with capacity constraints, there is only so much people can do with perishable products. We're running bacon through rendering plants too, because there is no where to go with food service bacon in storage, or the logistics to move it somewhere else. It is shitty, but there's not a magic bullet to add capacity at the snap of a finger. Milk is being dumped because there isn't any storage or spare processing capacity. You can't even let it sit on tankers, because they're going milk the cows again tomorrow, and that milk's got to go somewhere.
  15. What is the poor going to do with 10lb bricks of butter? The processors are paying the dairy farmers for the product, and things are unjamming already, you just had some loads get caught without anywhere to go, and it makes great doomsday headlines. Milk gets dumped almost every spring by processors because this is the seasonal high, it's just that we are paying attention now.
  16. It's not the USDA fault there is no storage, and the food service channel jammed, and we don't have the packaging capacity to swing it into the retail market.
  17. Also lotsa Canadians travel to and fro Detroit. Probably some Italian back and forth too with FCA
  18. There should be plenty around as most cattle operations use Ivomec in their vax programs already
  19. Christopher Cross is stuck between the virus and New York City, and feels the worst that he can be
  20. Grains have bounced a little tonight. Will be interesting to see if they and livestock separate a bit especially with people going apeshit on meat cases the last few days.
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