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Wiler77

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Posts posted by Wiler77

  1. 5 hours ago, VolenteHawk said:

    8 point home favorites will win at the same rate as 8 point road favorites.  

    Intuitively that doesn't make sense to me.  Home favorites win at a higher rate than road favorites, although I guess home favorites likely have a higher average spread than road favorites.

    With no home/away distinction, what I saw was 8 point favorites win 80% of the time, and 10 point favorites 88% of the time.  I assumed the home side of that was a bit higher.

    Anyway, the reason I'm asking is because I'm trying a new strategy where I parlay 5-6 money lines in which I take only home favorites in the 8-10 point range.  Depending on the exact line, you get ~1.5 : 1 odds on that type of parlay.  My sample size is low, but so far it's paying off.  If there are any HUGE home favorites, I'll throw those on top just because, but the core part of the strategy is 5-6 home teams in the 8-10 point spread range.

  2. Does anyone know a good site to get analysis on ATS, W/L, home/away, etc results for college basketball this season?

    I'm specifically interested in finding straight-up W/L% for home teams favored by 8-10 points.

    I found something that had straight-up win% based on what the spread was, but there was no way to further filter home vs away.

    Curious if there is some master set of data available or you can pay for and analyze from various angles.

  3. My Aunt died over the weekend of Pancreatic cancer.  Diagnosed 4 years ago @ Stage 4.  A bit of a miracle she lasted as long as she did.  The kick in the teeth was she was diagnosed 3 months after burying my uncle, who died of Mesothelioma.  He lasted 3 years.

    It got me thinking that their kids (my cousins) have spent the last 7 years of their life caring for a parent they knew had a death sentence.  Fucking brutal.  They are ~33 and 35 now, so that is prime years of their life likely spent in sadness.  I think they met both of their spouses around the same time my uncle was diagnosed, so that's been all they know.

    My hope is they can start to live the life they haven't really had a chance to the past 7 years.

  4. I mean, it sounds like a goat getting castrated...or at least that's how I imagine a goat sounding when it's nuts get chopped off.  How those news people weren't doubled in laughter over is truly amazing.  Pure professionals, although their concern was clearly fake.  Grape Lady must not be well liked at the office.

  5. Fucking pumped.  After a 3 year hiatus, we'll be hitting Crested Butte for 3 days of skiing in early March.

    And the flip side of that emotion is I just had a work trip to France last week, including a day and a half in Grenoble.  I considered arriving a day early to go skiing because...well, how often do you find yourself at the base of the French Alps?  But I've been traveling a lot and was already going to be gone for a full week, so I didn't want to press my luck with the wife.  I didn't even mention it to her.  The day before I left she asked me, "are you arriving early so you can go skiing?  That would be fun."  I felt like I got kicked in the balls.

    • Haha 1
  6. 14 hours ago, jofus said:

    the problem with approving Bru is the precedent it sets. What’s the point of NSD1 if players can just immediately transfer out? Sure, he felt lied to, but this time of year is when coaching turnover happens. This would start happening all the time unless Bru can come up with a non-generic excuse that the NCAA can use to say this isn’t setting a precedent. 

    Bru never actually signed a NLI at USC, did he?  That's a pretty big difference between most cases and his.

    He enrolled at USC, said fuck this shit I'm going to Texas, and transferred before classes closed at Texas.

    This should be a no-brainer

  7. 11 minutes ago, VirginiaLonghorn said:

    ... and an NIT basketball championship. 

    I distinctly remember posters on Texags stating as fact that the NIT championship was so important because the winner got an automatic berth into the real tournament the following year.  1 or 2 posters put it out there, and the other dumbshits that post on their basketball board accepted it as fact until a couple of other people gave them the sad reality.  It was like a day or two before someone corrected them.

  8. 16 hours ago, Neonmoon said:

    If they ever get lost in the woods, their Clemson degree doubles as toilet paper. 

    Clemson isn't a bad school.  Now these guys may major in Underwater Basket Weaving for all I know, but shitty degrees are available at any state school.

  9. 11 minutes ago, Michael Knight said:

    yeah cause a stanford grad really needs to worry about taxes, and have you seen austin housing prices?

    All things relative.  And relative to the Bay Area, Austin housing prices are dirt cheap.

    Stanford is a fantastic school obviously, but unless you live in SF, the rest of the Bay Area is pretty uneventful.  It's a concrete jungle, traffic is 10x worse than austin, and it's pretty boring.

  10. 14 hours ago, TornACL said:

    Richard Land. 

    I remember seeing we got this ginormous OL in our recruiting class and thinking how much we'd wreck shop. 

     

    kdzw08x.jpg

    Richard was friends with a guy that lived on my floor at Dobie and used to come hang out in our room.  He must have brought Richard over 6-8 times, and every time Richard would complain that he'd be starting if he'd had gone to Tennessee instead. The guy was not bright and was a complete fatass.  He struck me as being completely lazy, but I never saw him on a football field.

  11. Quote

    Dude seems like a genuine DB, but it's a about time to give it a rest.  His marriage fell apart, he's lost every job he's ever had, and now he's cleaning fucking pools.  Life has already beat the shit out of him.  What's the point of the internet beating him down even further?

    On 12/19/2018 at 12:01 PM, Wiler77 said:

    This post did not age well.

    Fuck everything about that dude.  He gets everything coming to him and deserves to have his shit put on blast.

    I would like to completely rescind my "this post did not age well" comment.  The guy sold 2 houses in 1 year.  It's time to recognize him for the hustler he is.

     

    • Like 2
  12. 17 minutes ago, Johnny Sack said:

     

    Best part was right before halftime we take a delay of game on third down that took us from 37 to 42 yards out.  Our kicker was decent inside 40. And awful outside it.  

    We had three fucking timeouts left.  

    I was on the road to a family gathering listening in the car.  I believe that was the first time my son (3 or 4 at the time) heard me say the F word.  As in "What the fuck are we DOING?!"

    • Like 2
    • Haha 1
  13. 14 minutes ago, Bottlecap said:

    I've said this before several times on here and I'll say it again, regional breweries are a thing of the past (nationally, but especially in TX). Breweries are as hyperlocal as they've ever been, and that's a GREAT thing. Brewers are treating small breweries like local bars now and laying off the pipe dream of becoming national (or regional) brands.

    You want a successful brewery? Get a partner or two to help run operations. Make a cool taproom. It doesn't have to be the nicest, just warm and inviting. Self distribute, but only distribute like 5% of your beer to high volume accounts for advertising purposes. Sell the other 95% out of your taproom. Get a brewpub license and sell crowlers (or growlers, but just do crowlers i mean, come on) to-go. Keep your footprint small and get into an underserved neighborhood or community. Play good music, make it kid or dog friendly or both. Have an outdoor space.

    Basically, no need to re-invent anything. Just copy/paste brands like ABGB, Southern Heights, or ABW.

    That'll be $99.95

    BTW, Big Bend didn't go under because of underperformance (although i thought they sucked after Steve Anderson died). Big Bend mostly went under because of this.

     

    I have no idea about their volume percentages, but Twisted X is pulling off all the other stuff you described.  I love hanging out there on a Sunday afternoon.  The place is packed, live music, and kid friendly.  I see their beer at HEB, but I don't know how widespread in the city it is.  I know I can find it at the Circle C and Dripping HEBs, as well as the Shell station at 1826/Nutty Brown Rd.

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