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HoustonHorn

Burnt Ends
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Everything posted by HoustonHorn

  1. A few samples, but they really need to be seen in person.
  2. Anyone else into art? A long time friend of mine is an incredible artist. Has never sold anything although he's given quite a few away, including several to me [emoji16]. In any event, he's not technologically savvy but I got him on IG last night as he's thinking about selling some stuff in the future. Not asking anyone to buy anything, they won't be cheap as he works on them for years, sometimes completely wiping out beautiful paintings and starting over. I bet some of his work had 20 or more paintings underneath. But, he could use some followers and he's understandably nervous about making his work public and could use some positive vibes and feedback if you like his stuff. It isn't for everyone and he's only got 2 posts currently. These were tests last night so we're going to keep refining the photos and getting some macros well. kdadams.art on IG
  3. Because the watch brands are owned by the same luxury brands, LVMH, Richemont, Swatch. It's the same folk. They know how to drive up demand. But they are making some bad choices as far as maintaining brand identity long term. So for that reason, I'm out. Check out the controversy over the Panerai "in-house" movements. There's some interesting articles I'll have to go back and dig up. Found one, very long and watch nerdy but worth it if you're investing a lot of money into buying luxury watches. Know what you're buying. The luxury brands know how to cut costs and lie about what you're actually getting. Not only that, it seems pretty obvious some of the major watch sites are in some ways complicit. This news never really came out and I read a lot of watch stuff. https://perezcope.com/2021/08/08/panerai-in-house-movements-a-pam-of-worms/ "Other ValFleurier calibers are shared as well. For instance Cartier’s 1904-SP MC, which beats as MB 29.22 in Montblanc watches, as 1100P in timepieces from Piaget and as 1326 in certain Vacheron Constantin references. Using the term “in-house” for all of these movements is misleading to say the least." All in on independent brands.
  4. I actually don't think Rolex cares too much because it benefits them. In fact, they just raised their retail prices. What they don't like is having it found out their ADs are dumping brand new watches to flippers and gray market sellers. Bad for their image when regular buyers can't even try a watch on in a Rolex store. But overall they pretty much just stay quiet. Rolex absolutely checks the serial numbers when they are sent in for service against their lost/stolen registry and will return it to the rightful owner. So box and papers only for anything non-vintage. Other brands absolutely are taking measures to control inventory and that is a multi-pronged effort. It includes dropping ADs, reducing AD margins, opening boutiques, and to a lesser extent limiting production or creating limited models to create the assistance of scarcity and increase demand. Gone are the days of the CEOs pushing as many watches as they can make out the door and flooding the market to meet certain sales goals for the quarter. They have changed it so that ADs can't immediately unload a lot of watches at 30-40% discounts while still breaking even or making a little because of the dealer markup built into the suggested retail price. That's why you used to see a ton of brand new Omegas and other brands watches immediately on the gray market at 20-30% discounts. I bought my Omega Speedmaster that way a little over a year ago. That hurts and cheapens the overall brand value because who is going to pay retail at an AD (or maybe a little discount) when you can get it for a couple thousand cheaper online immediately. So an 8k Omega isn't seen as an $8k watch, it's viewed as a $5.5k watch because that's how much it sells for new on the gray market. By constricting supply to the grey market and selling direct in boutiques, Omega stands to make a hell a lot more money on each watch and the value goes up because they aren't available at $5500 new anymore. I believe Breitling actually started buying back their new watches on the gray market for this very reason. I also heard they reprimanded ADs whose watches they found littering the market. Whatever "reprimand" actually means. And to be clear, I'm using gray market as it relates only to new watches being offered at a significant discount and not pre-owned. Pre-owned is a used watch. They can't control that and really don't want to although the higher the used prices the better for the brand overall because the perception is much better. But having brand new watches available at big discounts is a problem the brands are absolutely trying to fix and its starting to work. They want to be more like Rolex, and they should.
  5. I'm not sure this is necessarily Covid, but another way that Omega and other brands are moving to change their distribution and managing inventory. If people have to send their watches in, they can check to see if its the original owner, where it was sold, etc. and all the stuff that Rolex does when you send it in for service. Maybe I'm wrong, that is speculation on my part. I will say Covid is the perfect excuse for these shifts. I think they were planning this stuff all along, and now get to blame Covid instead of getting blamed themselves.
  6. I honestly barely use my watches to tell the time. I use a chrono occasionally for timing pasta or other cooking, my daughter's swim meets, and other random things. Sometimes I use it as a center second and just let it run. A dive bezel is there to turn and enjoy the action and sound - a fidget spinner for the wrist. I don't use it for diving but I enjoy having some in my collection. Often I don't bother to set the time correctly and I certainly don't mess with the date - I don't need it for telling me the time or day. There are clocks everywhere telling me the time and no shortage of places to find the date if I really need it. Accuracy/Chronometer certification matters only in the sense that I have a great appreciation for the skill it takes to create a watch that can so closely keep the time accurately, not because it matters to me as a wearer of the watch. +/- 2 seconds or 2 hours, doesn't really matter. Watches are a beautiful combination of art, design, mechanical engineering, mechanical skill, craftsmanship, love, and creation. Watches are a time capsule on your wrist. Something to be enjoyed and admired. Something that takes you back to an event or occasion or maybe it holds a special place because of who its from or what experiences you had while wearing it or why you bought it in the first place. And its all available for reference every time you look at your wrist.
  7. I like the green better. The traditional white and black will probably have more staying power though. I've liked that Intramatic since it was released. For just a little more than the Tudor I'd go with this.
  8. If you're looking for something a little less expensive, Nodus is solid for under 500. https://www.noduswatches.com/collections/all
  9. I'd look for some sort of daily wear sport casual or field watch. This is a very personal opinion, but you need some color. Check out Farer. Great designs and they are amazing at choosing colors for their watches. Many different models to choose from but most fit in a casual everyday wear type watch. Under 2k, with quite a few under 1k. Their new release I think is 870. Great on straps. http:// https://usd.farer.com/collections/all-watches Halios would be another sport casual brand. https://halioswatches.com/products/universa There are 3 new Oris Big crown watches out that look incredible. https://www.oris.ch/en/watch/big-crown-x-cervo-volante/01-754-7779-4067-set $2k, but Oris are legit well respected Swiss watches and that's pretty reasonable value. Vero has a little different and unique look and 10 year warranty https://vero-watch.com/ William Wood Valiant. Under 1k and very nice looking. https://williamwoodwatches.com/collections/valiantcollection Supports firefighters Don't want color Unimatic might fit the bill and is unique. https://www.unimaticwatches.com/ Monta and Former are both good watches in the 1300 to 1800k range. https://montawatch.com/products/monta-noble-silver-dial https://formexwatch.com/watches/essence-automatic-chronometer-degrade/ The Essence 43 gray fume is a great looking watch, but they also have a 39mm that has different colorways. Orion makes quality watches for well under $1k. I like the Hellcat a lot and have one on the way. The Calamity is also popular for a more diver style. http:// https://orionwatch.com/ Microbrands, yes. But the quality on these is good and you're getting something a little different but solid value for the money.
  10. Meant to quote Mike above. Always loved space/NASA stuff so I've had feelings for the Speedmaster. Don't own a Moonwatch though. I went for the Speedmaster Racing, black dial/orange accents instead.
  11. For relatively inexpensive, Lonestar Treasure on Etsy does nice work.
  12. I always contact the seller to discuss the watch and get some additional details before purchasing. So far I've had good luck but I would definitely be more concerned about brands that are more likely to be fakes or vintage pieces.
  13. Have purchased from Chrono24 and Watchbox and all transactions have been very smooth. Same with Exquisite Timepieces, Westime in LA, and as far as I can tell, Oster Jewelry in Denver although I pre-ordered and won't get the watch until this summer. He did let me put a down payment on a yet unreleased model of a hard to get watch with no buying history. Plus the owner Jeremy is fantastic to talk to. PM me if you're looking for something and I can put you in touch with someone at each place except Chrono24 in which the communication is directly with the seller.
  14. Yeah, it seems a little sketchy. Their pricing is out of line with the market and they have watches nobody else has. Allegedly. I'll steer clear. Thanks for the link, that confirms my suspicions exactly.
  15. Still getting things organized between that and the twat and meta so possibly?? I think right now the headers are of a Florida sunset over the water (ironic right?). The profile pic is the sun reflecting of an H. Moser Pioneer that I took at the same time.
  16. Any of you watch nerds on Instagram? Just started one @time.texas Most of what I end up posting probably should be in the other watch thread but figured the people in this thread are probably bigger watch people.
  17. As an aside, anyone ever used WatchRapport.com? Legit?
  18. That's gorgeous man. A truly beautiful and a historically significant timepiece. Congrats!
  19. This is actually really good advice for any watch. I'm still in on the independents though for the next year. There's a lot of momentum and very limited supply so I think its worth the risk for the potential return. Plus I get to enjoy some really badass watches in the meantime.
  20. I'm not much help, but definitely have it checked out by an independent, reputable watchmaker.
  21. Response to NHWC. I would definitely start with the Omega forums or WUS Omega. But start communication with the seller in advance of doing that so you are first in line and keep someone from stealing it out from under you. No guarantee obviously. I dipped my toes into vintage, but quickly switched to independents. Vintage watches can be a great long term investment, but you really really have to get into the minutae and understand all of the details of what models/variations/etc. are popular and why. That is boring to me personally, but I know some people with pretty insane vintage collections. Also, they can be a pain in the ass compared to newer watches. Finally, for any long term holds, definitely factor in servicing costs. Vintage or new. These aren't off the shelf ETA/Sellita movements you can take to your local watchmaker/repairer and the costs can add up quickly.
  22. I should add that there is a very bespoke feel to independent watchmaking. Definitely a much more upscale, luxury experience than haggling over what jewelry to buy to get into a submariner within a few months. That actually matters because buyers are getting frustrated with the Rolex experience. Not trying to bag on Rolex. The first "investment" watch I bought was a Rolex Kermit (up 10-15% this year already) and I'm working my way into an AD so I can move up their priority list in the future. Their marketing, inventory control, and model consistency is brilliant and turned it into an investment grade asset similar to PP/AP and now VC. And their business model has created a fundamental shift in many other watch/luxury brands looking to create a similar supply/demand profile - that's why many brands are dropping ADs and going to boutiques, slashing AD margins, and focusing on inventory control. Even if at this point its being done to create artificial scarcity, its working and grey market prices are generally going up across the board. Certainly the big 4 are the safer long term play and should continue to do well. But if you haven't spent 6 figures with any of the trinity brands already, you aren't going to get a sports watch from any of them for a long time. Rolex is possible, but very difficult without spending a lot of money to move up the list. It is definitely worth trying to establish those relationships now if you have the means because its hard to find any other investment with a guaranteed 25-100% return the second you walk out the door. But Moser entry level watches and Czapek sports models are available, although a little difficult to find. And imo, they are better and more unique pieces of craftsmanship. The independent community is very small and it is still very easy to make very good, close connections with the brands and even the watchmakers themselves in some cases. I've stayed away from micro-independents though because there will be limited demand for a one-off unique piece that you designed directly with the watchmaker. Plus, would you really want to sell something like that? And if you did, it would be pretty obvious as soon as that piece went on the market and you'd lose that relationship. Anything that custom should be for a personal, long-term collection, not an investment. But the best part is this all happening with pre-owned watches. So you can actually enjoy wearing some of the watches if you're careful with them. Get in with an AD or several (the availability varies significantly from AD to AD) first so you have access to future releases. Then buy pre-owned at or less than market value. Hold/wear lightly for the next 6 months to a year and see how things are trending. The biggest downside I see in the short term is loss of liquidity. That said, larger market forces or world war 3 could certainly change things, but in that case, none of your investments will be worth a shit and at least with this you have a beautiful watch or watches to enjoy through the end times.
  23. Tough to get and quite expensive. Czapek Antarctique is about 50% of low end LF, Moser (Pioneer) about 33% of low end LF. And to be clear, the above isn't financial advice. Just my observations on the strengths of the company at this particular time in the current watch market. I'd love to have every brand above, but Moser and Czapek are the horses I've chosen to ride. If they do well maybe I can add a few pieces to the permanent collection. If they don't, then you probably won't see me on this thread for quite a while.
  24. I'm into Czapek too. The Antarctique is special and hits the luxury sports watch with integrated bracelet market. Can be a little tough to get, but if you're willing to wait 6-8 months you can get them. Nearly unknown at this point. AnOrdain on the 2k or less spectrum. Waiting list only right now. Amazing enamel dials. Sartory Billard Ming for mostly lower $ luxury. Anything Kari Voutilainen is involved in. Groenfeld Kudoke Laurent Ferrier Rexhep Rexhep - not possible MB&F/Debethune - rare and definitely not for everyone. Machines on the wrist. Ressence - Also very different but extremely cool. Anything independent with low production should do well, but those above are really starting to take off. Micros - Halios, Farer, Brew, Dietrich, Orion are some that I've picked up lately to wear. These are getting some increased attention as well and for a few of those you can sell it used but in good shape for at close to or above retail for the most popular models for the foreseeable future. So...free watch. All are $1k or less. But mostly Moser. 1500 watches per year is very low - FP Journe is about 800. Patek is 60,000+. Legit history to the name and the family is still "involved" at least in a supportive role. This wasn't just a purchase/payout/cash grab which I think adds legitimacy the brand. In-house movements. Exciting, young CEO who is a 5th generation watchmaker and is heavily involved in the design process. His family bought the name maybe 10 or 12 years ago. Very passionate and is very innovative (see the Vantablack). . A much much better image than a stodgy old watchmaker. It's a brand that people can buy into easily and feel the excitement of being part of a small family. They make their own hairsprings which is very very rare. But more than that, they make the supply for pretty much the entire independent watch industry. So they are both insulated from outside risks and have incredible partnering opportunities. Had a recent successful collaboration with MB&F. Almost no traditional advertising but very effectively use cheeky, clever humor to get attention, see the Apple Watch or the Swiss Mad Cow unique piece as examples. They aren't really known outside of watch enthusiasts yet, but prices on popular models are at or higher than retail with the Streamliner matrix green selling for 37k when retail is 21k. Their more traditional entry level models are just now starting to get hot with pre-owned prices up 20+% in just the last few months. Extremely eye-catching watches. Perfect for IG but they are also in the same ADs as all the regular high end brands (at least the ones that are now left since many seem to be moving to boutiques only and dropping ADs). So you can physically see them before buying them which is very different from most independents. And if you've ever walked past them, you'll notice them. So brand recognition will be high among somewhat regular watch buyers, even if they are there for something else. Rolex is getting unobtainable and the money has to go somewhere. The entry level models are in the 14-22k range which is what people are paying for entry level Rolexes now and even more for some stupid colored OPs. But I digress. Compare a Moser dial to the OPs and it isn't even close. Demand for colored dials is there and Moser does it as well or better than anyone. So physically and cost wise they are in close proximity with grey market Rolex. In quality they are in a completely different league and those movements on the back are going to start selling watches as much as the dials. Rolex steel caseback compared to some incredibly decorated movements. IG Flex. No they aren't for everybody. This isn't your grandfather's watch. But they only need 1501 people to want one before demands starts to outstrip supply. I love them personally. Watchbox.com, watchbox.com, watchbox.com. $165M cash influx from Michael Jordan and other NBA players. One billion dollar valuation. Moser is one of their most highlighted brands. Throw a Mad "Bulls" Red Pioneer on MJ. Demand will skyrocket. In all honesty it will only take 1 really big name celebrity influencer to post one on IG and they will become extremely desirable. They are spring/summer watches, so I expect the new model releases at Watches & Wonders to really get excitement going and that momentum increasing through the summer. 2 years people have sat around searching the internet and finding alternatives to Rolex like Zenith, Omega, Grand Seiko. That leads to some exposure to these independent brands and to the fact there are better and different options out there. Moser sets up very nicely to fill that space over the next year or two. And its a pretty big step up from those brands in quality and hand finishing, but its also a big step up in value because production is so so so much lower than those big brands. Collectors who are interested in the brand have figured this out and prices are already going up. Throw on some media hype.... Yes, I'm in on Moser. Art for the wrist.
  25. No, there is no better time to buy any luxury watch. Well maybe 6 months ago. Beautiful watch, enjoy it!
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