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HoustonHorn

Burnt Ends
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Everything posted by HoustonHorn

  1. I'm into Czapek too. The Antarctique is special and hits the luxury sports watch with integrated bracelet market. Can be a little tough to get, but if you're willing to wait 6-8 months you can get them. Nearly unknown at this point. AnOrdain on the 2k or less spectrum. Waiting list only right now. Amazing enamel dials. Sartory Billard Ming for mostly lower $ luxury. Anything Kari Voutilainen is involved in. Groenfeld Kudoke Laurent Ferrier Rexhep Rexhep - not possible MB&F/Debethune - rare and definitely not for everyone. Machines on the wrist. Ressence - Also very different but extremely cool. Anything independent with low production should do well, but those above are really starting to take off. Micros - Halios, Farer, Brew, Dietrich, Orion are some that I've picked up lately to wear. These are getting some increased attention as well and for a few of those you can sell it used but in good shape for at close to or above retail for the most popular models for the foreseeable future. So...free watch. All are $1k or less. But mostly Moser. 1500 watches per year is very low - FP Journe is about 800. Patek is 60,000+. Legit history to the name and the family is still "involved" at least in a supportive role. This wasn't just a purchase/payout/cash grab which I think adds legitimacy the brand. In-house movements. Exciting, young CEO who is a 5th generation watchmaker and is heavily involved in the design process. His family bought the name maybe 10 or 12 years ago. Very passionate and is very innovative (see the Vantablack). . A much much better image than a stodgy old watchmaker. It's a brand that people can buy into easily and feel the excitement of being part of a small family. They make their own hairsprings which is very very rare. But more than that, they make the supply for pretty much the entire independent watch industry. So they are both insulated from outside risks and have incredible partnering opportunities. Had a recent successful collaboration with MB&F. Almost no traditional advertising but very effectively use cheeky, clever humor to get attention, see the Apple Watch or the Swiss Mad Cow unique piece as examples. They aren't really known outside of watch enthusiasts yet, but prices on popular models are at or higher than retail with the Streamliner matrix green selling for 37k when retail is 21k. Their more traditional entry level models are just now starting to get hot with pre-owned prices up 20+% in just the last few months. Extremely eye-catching watches. Perfect for IG but they are also in the same ADs as all the regular high end brands (at least the ones that are now left since many seem to be moving to boutiques only and dropping ADs). So you can physically see them before buying them which is very different from most independents. And if you've ever walked past them, you'll notice them. So brand recognition will be high among somewhat regular watch buyers, even if they are there for something else. Rolex is getting unobtainable and the money has to go somewhere. The entry level models are in the 14-22k range which is what people are paying for entry level Rolexes now and even more for some stupid colored OPs. But I digress. Compare a Moser dial to the OPs and it isn't even close. Demand for colored dials is there and Moser does it as well or better than anyone. So physically and cost wise they are in close proximity with grey market Rolex. In quality they are in a completely different league and those movements on the back are going to start selling watches as much as the dials. Rolex steel caseback compared to some incredibly decorated movements. IG Flex. No they aren't for everybody. This isn't your grandfather's watch. But they only need 1501 people to want one before demands starts to outstrip supply. I love them personally. Watchbox.com, watchbox.com, watchbox.com. $165M cash influx from Michael Jordan and other NBA players. One billion dollar valuation. Moser is one of their most highlighted brands. Throw a Mad "Bulls" Red Pioneer on MJ. Demand will skyrocket. In all honesty it will only take 1 really big name celebrity influencer to post one on IG and they will become extremely desirable. They are spring/summer watches, so I expect the new model releases at Watches & Wonders to really get excitement going and that momentum increasing through the summer. 2 years people have sat around searching the internet and finding alternatives to Rolex like Zenith, Omega, Grand Seiko. That leads to some exposure to these independent brands and to the fact there are better and different options out there. Moser sets up very nicely to fill that space over the next year or two. And its a pretty big step up from those brands in quality and hand finishing, but its also a big step up in value because production is so so so much lower than those big brands. Collectors who are interested in the brand have figured this out and prices are already going up. Throw on some media hype.... Yes, I'm in on Moser. Art for the wrist.
  2. No, there is no better time to buy any luxury watch. Well maybe 6 months ago. Beautiful watch, enjoy it!
  3. Amy and UUUU taking it on the shorts again. Would love this to turn around soon.
  4. All the brands are moving to control inventory and many are moving away from ADs and opening boutiques so they can realize the increased demand and prices. This isn't going to stop for quite a while. It's a fundamental shift in the industry. Independent brands with limited production are exploding. Moser Streamliner went from selling at around retail or slightly less to 70% over retail just in the past few weeks.
  5. For anyone with the means, I highly suggest developing relationships with ADs for brands you are interested in so you have the opportunity to make purchases at retail in the future.
  6. Now is definitely the time to buy a watch or watches if you are thinking about it. EVERYTHING is going up right now. Very unique opportunity to get into luxury watches (that aren't Rolex/AP/PP/VC) and not lose money. This year is shaping up to be crazy for other brands, and especially luxury independents.
  7. Very sorry to hear about your Dad.
  8. Not yet. Needs at least one more full recruiting cycle to really get the money going. They've got this train running straight off a cliff. Money's going to get bigger and costlier. More 2nd and 3rd money grabs by recruits, more Eric Dickersons, and way more pissing off everyone in the SEC to the point they make a big enough stink about it either the NCAA or SEC has to step in. They aren't stopping this train now. It's going to be fun to watch it fall apart. They'll be the most despised team in the SEC after leaking the news about UT/OU, forfeiting like pussies, and now running up the prices for recruits for everybody. Sad really, since they are the most SEC SEC SEC school. Recruits will bail, players will portal. Jimbo walks into the sunset with his $100M leaving A&M in shambles. Longhorns join the SEC. SEC boots A&M. Insert [Randolph Duke-generated] entire Texas A&M system collapse. Remaining assets purchased by the University of Phoenix. Wait, what were we talking about?
  9. Thanks for your ongoing insight into the legal aspects...it is very much appreciated for a non-lawyer.
  10. Mind the gap.
  11. Why is UUUU killing my AMY buzz?
  12. Not quite to the level of the UG, but I really love Enicar. It's definitely on my list to get someday. Other priorities first though.
  13. I only know of it because Im a big fan of Enicar watches in general and really want the Jim Clark Sherpa Graph. So I've come across a lot of racing chronographs associated with famous drivers (and their wives).
  14. For anyone interested in high end brands, I suggest the Keeping Time podcast. Jeremy Oster has a lot of contacts in the industry that he interviews. Really great stuff.
  15. This is a man who is serious about watches and doesn't fuck around. Beauty. If I come across anything I'll let you know.
  16. For the movement nerds. The Czapek.
  17. Czapek is also exploding right now. Gorgeous watches, still a steel sports watch with integrated bracelet, but a bit more unique than many of the Nautilus/RO knockoffs.
  18. Moser certainly has a polarizing look. Can't argue with the dials and movements though. Case designs can be a little out there, especially the Streamliner. But I really like that organic/flowing look. Different and obviously there's a fair amount of demand. Exactly my thought on the GP. Taken in a vacuum, its a gorgeous watch and really well finished. But we aren't in a vacuum. For something a little different at that level though, Parmigiani Fleurier has serious watch making chops and the new Tonda GT is a huge hit. Pricey, but again, luxury brands are moving up quickly as there isn't enough Rolex/AP/PP for the amount of money being dumped into luxury watches.
  19. I'm hoping the AMYZF new plant news hits big when its announced. Sounds like the demo facility is to be up and running in February and they are already looking at how to expand that to a commercial facility if the proof of concept works at scale.
  20. Today's was more difficult for sure. Tricky.
  21. I should add that the waitlist to get the green centre seconds is 2024 currently. Demand is going to continue to grow.
  22. Moser Streamliner Centre Seconds I think retail is about 21k. The Flyback Chrono is about 44k retail.
  23. GP is blowing up right now. When I bought my 70s I tried on the Laureato and it was extremely nice. I know it stands on its on merits and I really liked the watch. But I just couldn't get past the fact it was the Avis of Genta-inspired watches. I was looking for something more unique. Moser is about to blow up... guessing this summer. It will become the IG summer brand. Lots of money moving into alternative brands in this crazy luxury market. Moser has brand recognition and cachet, and it's sold in high end ADs next to all the other high end brands. They are hugely eye catching whether you like them or not so it's relatively widely known and recognized even though it hasn't gotten main steam popularity yet. Some of their high end limited edition pieces have already gotten hot and exploded on price as availability is extremely limited. Look at the price of the Streamliner Centre Seconds... Selling 50% above retail. Other models will follow as they make an insanely low number of watches. Watchbox, with the huge influx of MJ and NBA money and built in tie-in with celebrities, is about to dictate demand for luxury watches that aren't just Rolex/PP/AP. Czapek work the Antarctique and PF with the Tonda are beginning to follow suit. Both of these are amazing watches. Even Glashutte Original is slowly becoming more difficult to get for some watches and secondary market prices are slowly rising. Work only 4,000 watches made pretty year, it dies by take much demand. Now is a pretty unique time to get into non - Rolex/PP/AP and not lose your shirt. With smart purchases they will likely go up in value. Look for IG friendly high horology independent brands (yes I know GO is officially in the Swatch Group but they leave them alone) with very low production. Definitely not a bad time to build a relationship with your AD. With some of these brands it's much easier start getting access to some more high demand limited releases.
  24. Or GP?
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