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GabrielsHorn

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Everything posted by GabrielsHorn

  1. Not necessarily true. They are piecemealing their quarantines as Chihuahua has been under a stay at home for a bit after El Paso and New Mexico went. Near Mexico City though, it’s a shitshow. One of the governors claiming poor people can’t get it and AMLO going to meet El Chapo’s mom while his government is trying to emphasize quarantines sums up current Mexican politics really well.
  2. You do realize that Italy didn’t immediately issue a national lockdown and they have tremendous pressure from the south about it, right? https://www.express.co.uk/news/world/1262824/Coronavirus-horror-violence-Italy-COVID-19-unrest-chaos-shortages-news Im not going to defend our current policies, but Italy isn’t some shining example that far exceeds what we’ve done.
  3. You really think that Italy and Spain don’t matter. We are using an exponential growth system based on measured data that has proven it out. Further, you really don’t think Spain and Italy don’t have an overstresssed system at this point? Are you just purposely avoiding the news from there where they are picking who to give treatment to and using ice rinks as temporary morgues? This isn’t some math problem and these models are built upon it not just being an exponential curve that any moron can put together. Why would we not use proven data to calibrate a model?
  4. Except no country in the world has seen that multiplier stay above 1.2 above 4,000 deaths, including Spain and Italy which have been battered by this. I know we are already in a black swan event, but you can’t keep extrapolating out when we have data from other places that indicate that it is unlikely to keep up said multiplier. Looks, it’s still not a good situation, but if we continue to provide predictions that project carnage in the streets that don’t actually happen, it’s going to give more resolve to the morons who think this is no worse than the flu or H1N1. Those models that continually get posted focus way too much on the raw numbers opposed to the behavior and outcomes needed to stretch out and minimize needless deaths (e.g. we need these measures to flatten the curve to not overwhelm the system, we need to be prepared better for the next epidemic as it can come from anywhere, this is going to be months not weeks of various measures, etc).
  5. Do you really think that testing for corona virus isn’t going to capture the people who have died?
  6. Because we’ve implemented some significant changes and that trajectory would be well ahead of the rest of the world. Even in Italy, it’s taken them 10 days to go from 4K deaths to 10k deaths. But what you are extrapolating is something that hasn’t been seen anywhere, including the original place that was trying to hide there was anything in the first place. We’ll get to 50k deaths and this is absolutely a dangerous virus, but to reach the current worldwide deaths in half a month after quarantining a huge chunk of the country is highly unlikely.
  7. The joys of typing quickly on an iPhone. My point is that we’ll reach that number, but that number of deaths is still relatively large compared to the havoc we’ve already seen from the virus. It’s highly unlikely we’d get there in 10 days as that would require, on average, more deaths per day than what we currently have total.
  8. Friendly reminder that the world isn’t at that number yet from the reported deaths and that even the estimates from Wuhuan based on the urns is less than that number.
  9. Man, this really doesn't seem like it's going to end well for India. The way the quarantine was implemented and the delay in time along with the coincidence of religious festivals is going to spread the virus it like a wildfire. Meanwhile in Mexico.... That's during a period where the government is telling people to stay home.
  10. We’ve gotten some incredible eSports in different ways though. NASCAR on FS1 was something to behold.
  11. Except we can't really trust the information coming out from them based on their confirmed cases and death, their false report about the transmission of the disease, their bad tests that they sent to Italy and Spain, and how they are actively using propaganda to put the blame on others, particularly the US. Unless whatever they claim is proved true by the WHO, you can't really trust anything from them. We are better to look at places like South Korea which have been fighting it for as nearly as long and also aren't actively spreading misinformation.
  12. There is a lot of bullshit in that Q&A though. His answers to the questions about the timeline are deflections about China's actions, especially when the whistelblower was brought before the local officials on January 3rd, and it's highly likely that China is cooking their books on the community spread to focus only on imported cases at this point so that they can blame foreign powers. It's interesting to read but hard to trust considering China's actions throughout this entire process
  13. It was instituted yesterday, but declared Wednesday. Seems like a good tool, but may be a bit behind in getting in the inputs.
  14. Site seems off. Doesn’t show Colorado as having a stay in place when we do.
  15. I doubt the quarantine gets lifted until the end of April and potentially through May. Will be interesting if these social distancing and not strict quarantine actually doesn’t overwhelm the hospitals in areas like Texas, Denver, LA, etc where there wasn’t quite the panic as Washington or NYC beforehand.
  16. The thing is that testing really doesn’t tell us all that much once it becomes a pandemic due to testing limitations, etc. The death rate from COVID is sadly a better indicator as to the spread within a country.
  17. At this point, it’s just going to be riding it out. I think we’ll start seeing a bit more of the deaths move to the south in Italy just based on when quarantines went into effect.
  18. Not all parts of Mexico are being oblivious to it at least. Governor of Chihuahua issued similar guidelines to El Paso and New Mexico a few days ago. I could talk about AMLO, but let’s not CR it up.
  19. Some people's behavior during this whole outbreak is just appalling.
  20. Are their graphs that show the deaths instead of the amount of cases? Seems like there’s an issue normalizing the amount of cases based on countries ability to test, etc
  21. Only news that’s come out recently is that Italy saw cases decrease but deaths increase after falling for two days per the BBC.
  22. Because if they get closed down, you’ll see a run on the liquor stores that will end up hurting your original directive. source: I experienced it yesterday and the lines were more dangerous than keeping them open with more strict guidelines.
  23. Denver already relaxed its liquor and marijuana closures. Having lines that literally stretched blocks probably were worse for the spread of the virus than normal operations at those stores would have been.
  24. Also, liquor stores and marijuana dispensaries are considered non essential and will close. Headed to the liquor store now. Will be a mess trying to get it as there’s going to be a run today at both stores.
  25. Hopefully we get a renewed focus on mental health and counseling beyond hitting the bottle. Seems like people are losing their minds a week into this, so hopefully this expands the need for people to see mental health experts about the isolation and loneliness that we experience beyond a quarantine.
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