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Posted
2 hours ago, atomheartbevo said:

That would be huge, and something Iran would probably consider at this point.  I find it interesting that this all started happening after the Ukrainian delegation showed up.

Like I said, Trump despises weakness, and Russia has been showing it in spades.

I don’t think they sell many to a Russia at this point as Russia’s version is more advanced, but it would make a lot of sense if it was Hamas/houthi related. 

Posted
3 hours ago, atomheartbevo said:

@PTINS Burning for 36 hours or longer seems kind of bad. Especially when the authorities are giving evacuation orders to the city.

 

 

My screenshot; Red icons and the Red polygon in the middle are pre October strikes.  The Red icons within the Blue polygon were the Oct 6 strikes. The Blue polygon is from the FIRMS shot in the quoted post. It appears they hit everything on the easy side of the terminal, including the rail loading/unloading facilities.

I believe Ukraine has chosen not to target the 3 large tanks on the west side of the property, because they are large, and very close to civilian infrastructure adjacent to the terminal.

Should have called me. I put out a diesel fire, at fire school, in a 6'x6' pan ~ 6 " deep, with a dry powder extinguisher. 

The protocol w/ oil & gas fires, cut off the fuel source, control the fire, and then assess. your options. Burning gas (vapor, natural gas, not gasoline) in a controlled environment is preferable to a large gas plume continuing to vent and grow, looking for an ignition source, that vaporizes everything within the plume. Most big gas fires, like the one next to Walmart in Pasadena, you isolate the fire and let it burn itself out.

Most liquid fires, try to put out the fire, and clean up the mess.

From the FIRMS data, it appears that most of the facility is burning, which probably includes the fire water system, is compromised and/or to hot to get access to.  

image.png.2dfed3589974da0ddf0978821d98c3c0.png

3 hours ago, Parliament said:

Have they not turned off the pipelines feeding that thing?

My first guess is that the terminal if fed by rail rather than pipelines.  That would be a long, and expensive, underwater pipeline (don't think they would put it on the Kerch Bridge), and given the Russia love for trains, i expect that is that they use.

2 hours ago, KYHorn said:

 

No one yet knows why, but for the first time in 7.5 years, Iranian flagged ships have just turned on their AIS beacons, all over the world.

The oil market is taking it as a sign that Trump is about to cut a no-sanctions deal with Iran.

Needless to say, oil price would be absolutely destroyed, sealing Putin's fate.
 

Similar Dynamic Ronald Reagan used to crush the Soviet Union. Make Russia spend their capital $$$ trying to make a competing (mythical) "Star Wars" defense system, and crush their revenue stream by enticing the Saudi's and friends to flood the oil market. 

It worked, but the collateral damage to the domestic Oil & Gas Industry was irreversible. Who is gone since then? Mobil, Amoco, Texaco, Arco, Cities Service, Kerr-Mcgee, Occidental, Tenneco. 

And when the oil price is destroyed, Exxon, Chevron, and Conoco go with it.  Conoco is already reducing staff by 25%.  (Not really, they will survive and scarf up all the smaller guys that are not integrated (do not make and sell refined products).

Today, oil dropped below $59/bbl. Wall Street will force the integrated oil companies (Big Oil) to divest of assets at fire sale prices, again.

There are 3 big oil producers; The Saudi's, the US, and Russia. Kicking 2 of the 3 in the nuts is a bold strategy. It will make Greta happy.

To be clear. This is the right move. Crush Russia's ability to make war, and they will have to stop.

But I put my Good Will Hunting hat on and look down the road a piece, and it looks kind of bumpy. 

Full disclosure, I went to an estate sell this weekend. Lot of Conoco paraphernalia; he was a gas processing engineer.  I saw some personal items, asked around, it turns out I knew the guy. I bought a copy Conoco's 125th Anniversary book, still wrapped in plastic. I've posted pictures of Candi Loving from Ponca City, OK. Conoco's first big well was a lease from the Ponca Native Americans and Chief White Eagle. We lived on White Eagle Lane in Katy. 

"I remember White Eagle standing near the derrick of the first well when it blew in with a terrific roar.  He told me in sign language that I was making "bad medicine, for him, his people, and myself."

Whatever the Oil & Gas industry may be, there is a legacy of ingenuity, an unending passion and pioneer spirit, and a romantic ideal of living life on the edge, oscillating between good and bad, and rich and poor. 

I find it interesting that for me, this board, your posts, and the insights and life experiences that you all share, is all because of Ukraine and their people; they have pulled all of us in, as they personify that romantic ideal and ingenuity and spirit that I thought was a long, tall tale from yesteryear.  

7 hours ago, Gatorubet said:

Hell, I remember classroom drills hiding from the nuclear attack - when we crawled under our desks in the early 1960s and we’re told not to look at the windows because of the blast damage to our retina and the shattered glass risk. 

That’s why I turned out normal

Yep, dad was a jet engine mechanic and we always lived close to the planes (B-52's) and the flight line. The 12,000 ft runways ware always a choice target. We always did the drills; the older we got, the more funny they seemed. 

You realized when it happens it happens and there is nothing you can do about it, so ... don't worry and enjoy life.

I may not be normal, but I don't care.  

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