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  1. After looking at the US infection curve I have come to a very simply conclusion. The ONLY reason the number of infected is only growing at roughly 30,000, is that... you guessed it... a lack of available testing. i dumped most of my stock yesterday that I bought on last weeks bottom, outside of some very long term hold's mostly in oil sector where I already have 20+ percent gains, between Shell and Parsley and some ming boggling dividend rates at the prices I bought in at. I think there is a false sense of optimism. The "if we can make it through this week" or this week is our "Pearl Harbor" are going to be proven to be simply hopeful musings. If my perception regarding lack of increases in a nation of 330 million people can only be a result of lack of testing. OR you can believe the infection numbers are accurate. and we are shutting down the country because of .000091% increase in our populations infection? I hope my prediction is right because I had some vary favorable long term positions that I simply think are gonna see one more big pullback when folks realize were are not going to be "open for business" anytime soon. In my mind I thought, I am actually investing on the belief that the Trump Administration is "going to get this under control." And that seems like a stupid thing to invest in. Simply because I think far too many people still do not understand what this virus is going to do to red state America, and that Trump is so very defensive on testing questions in briefings that we have no hope of "opening up for business" anytime soon. I was hoping for mid-July, and perhaps with another month of shut in that's still possible, but I am thinking that we are two months behind on reasonable expectations for the Trump administration I thought my investment strategy flawed. I loved my log positions, but think theres gonna be another huge selloff. If I'm wrong it's gonna cost me a chuck of change. If I'm right I'm hopping right back in on the same stocks later this month. Right now after watching the optimism in the market yesterday, I think folks still don't realize where this is headed. I think sometime a week or so after Easter, as the spread begins to hammer rural (R) areas, the depth and time it's gonna take to get back to "normal" is gonna cause another selloff. Hope I made the right decision.
  2. Right now the single most dangerous thing in our country is our President's desperation to avoid at any costs using his power and trying to take control and clean up his mess. Instead all focus is political posturing and reciting meaningless raw numbers against a population of 330,000,000. The fact of the matter is that while Trump completely and totally shit the bed in the past, he has been eating triple portions of Cheese Enchiladas and shitting the bed today, yesterday, and will shit it again tomorrow. Right now the National Guard and Corps of Engineers should already be moving to the next hotspots and building hospitals. We are just now beginning to federally trying to control supply chains. Why? Because doing the right thing earlier would have made the administration "responsible" for results. This is what happens when you have a President who have been told over and over and over that he is so wonderful and responsible for all that is good in the world. A president who NEVER IN HIS LIFE HAS TAKEN RESPONSIBILITY FOR HIS ACTIONS, simply wants to avoid responsibility at all costs now. Because it's better in Trump's mind to somehow believe that he can avoid responsibility, by failing to take action responsibly. Instead you are seeing a political strategy of blaming others for all, and taking responsibility for nothing. So today is just another day of the Trump administration shitting the bed. There is no need to look back, Trump is taking another giant cheese enchilada dump in the bed right now... and jared, Ivanka, and Mike all just told him his shit smells like roses.... The dumb fucks even ordered too fucking few body bags. There is almost nothing they can do correctly in an anticipatory manner.
  3. What you are about to see tear through the Southern Bible belt is gonna be mind boggling. The southern republican states simply ignored all science and instead listened to Fox news of, and tweets of, President Trump. It's not gonna be as many refrigerated trailers as New York, put the combination of age and distance from hospitals in all the rural areas of FL, GA, AL, and MS are going to have a lot of people getting an up close and personal look at watching a loved one die. At first they will head town the hospital a few towns over, then they will just stay home and gasp to death in their own homes. The only thing left for FL, GA, MS, and AL to do is take a page out of the China book and lie about the reality of the death count.
  4. I think I am about to be at the point where we are going to start actually saving money. I finally had to lay down the law a couple days ago, we do not need to drop $100 every time we walk into HEB. I sort of sent nuts the other day when I was going to get like 3 things, wife did the same thing yesterday when again going to get like 3 things. We honestly could not leave the house and probably eat for two weeks easily and longer with a bit less variety. So basically I think the hoarding and worrying about supply lines should be over. I've bought some extra yard materials to some outdoor projects since I am stuck here. I did spend a couple hundred of Tequila, Grand Marnier, triple sec and 6 half gallons of Jack..just in case. On the flip side we are probably saving $300 easy weekly just not going out. But we fucking love going out and we worry about the bartenders and wait people we have befriended over the years. They are truly fighting for their lives. I need to cancel the YMCA, we were not going anyway, and no expenses for work means less overall outflow. So in the end we will likely come out ahead. The fact I did not buy a flip house I was looking at in Corpus makes me feel a lot more secure at this point than I would be if I had both emotionally and financially.
  5. Basically what I envision is my grandfather gasping for every last breath and finally dying of heart failure from emphysema. I remember when he was dying the image that came to my mind that was most relatable was of a fish on land gasping for oxygen. It's so very, very sad to me that so many that did NOT need to die will do so, home, isolated, and gasping like a dying fish.
  6. You are going to see a science experiment of deadly proportions where the primary difference is going to be whether or not your Governor or Mayor took early action, or did not take early action. You are going to see some statistical information that reflects how the courses of action or non-action affect the outcome of the piles of dead. My assertion is you are going to see massive spikes in places like Florida, Georgia and Mississippi, as they can be identified as the States whose leaders actions most mirrored the early actions of President Trump. Malaise and non-concern of the governors of these states mirrors the non-curiosity of our president. They simply did not do their due diligence and the near universal policy of republican elected representatives rejecting all science made curiosity of something like a virus, a lot less appealing than a little spring breaker economic surge. While logic would dictate that those that live in close quarters will be the most effected by the virus, the demographic of scientifically ignorant republican is going to be another group more effected than others. I wonder how the virus will flow into the rural areas that are not well supported by hospitals and that are largely republican? Will a failure to take social distancing early have negative result? Will allowing a massive commingling in Florida, Georgia and Alabama long after the concerns were known have a negative result? I think you are going to see the states these three Republican led states who were the very last to take this virus seriously have clear statistical data indicating a negative outcome due to inaction. In essence when you decide to "ditto" the Presidents inaction on a state level, citizens will die unnecessarily.
  7. Georgia Gov. explains his shocking lack of knowledge Perhaps we have just witnessed the most pure effect of watching exclusively Fox News. The Governor of Georgia, Brian Kemp said he just found out yesterday that the coronavirus could be transmitted by asymptomatic people (asymptomatic means not showing signs of illness Fox news watchers). Take that in again, the Governor of a State AND his lead medical officer just found out yesterday that the virus could be spread before sick people showed signs of illness. The ONLY way that is possible if you watch television is to watch Fox as your singular source of TV news. In this case media bias is actually gonna cost some people their lives in Georgia.
  8. The bottom line is those that support Trump PREFER to believe lies rather than facts. They can spin and justify anything based on feelings, musings, because these rationalizations that are a NECESSITY to not say... OK I am a fucking dumbass... The moment that many FOX news followers will realize the truth actually does matter is when they get a pesky cough... and it keeps getting worse. Then the thoughts about facts creep in and the "OK I am a fucking dumbass" moves to the front of the cue...
  9. The GOP has found it's greatest ally in the only foreigner controlled news network in FOX. Market is more important than truth at Fox and it always has been. So it's not a surprise to see Fox reinforcing misinformation to folks that want to hear lies. It used to be long ago that the GOP was a party of fiscal conservatism and smaller government. Now the GOP explodes the national debt ANY time they have control and a decent economy. As is well know, your investments are worth a lot more at the end of Democratic Presidencies than they are at the end of GOP Presidencies. This is mainly because the GOP shits the bed on the economy once they get control, remove regulations, and borrow and spend like drunken sailors trying to help the rich and corporations. Funny isn't it how Trump inherited the best economy ever handed a sitting President in our lifetimes, and Fox news claims repeatedly that the greatest economy ever inherited was not. They just lie, because... the average FOX news watcher simply does not know many actual facts. They are ignorant on math, science and other empirically based information. Instead the focus is on "feelings" mostly outrage over falsehoods pushed by Fox. Unfortunately for many Fox news watchers the are going to realize that facts count, and at the most unfortunate time. When they get a cough and catch a virus they "didn't even need to worry about..."
  10. My personal belief that Florida is going to be the worst as far as death percentage and it's not going to be even close. Mainly because you had a Governor in DeSantis that basically decided to do a Spring Break experiment trading dollars from a hyper-exposure model for the nation's largest state population of old people. Right now Florida is "safe' using the GOP safe/ dangerous model. Where if you have no fucking testing you pretend it's safe. https://www.nbcmiami.com/news/local/nearly-5500-coronavirus-in-florida-half-in-miami-dade-and-broward/2212921/ https://www.prb.org/which-us-states-are-the-oldest/ Here is a 2018 breakdown of older populations for a comparison of raw numbers, New York has 3,214,000 people over the age of 65, Florida 4,358,000 or a 25% larger population of most vulnerable combined with the only State modeling it's stupidity in response after Donald Trumps... it's gonna be horrific. Even worse Florida has enormous large groupings of older people living together. So the lack of social distancing over the last few weeks means surely the virus has infiltrated these vulnerable communities. Perhaps the strangest outcome of this whole deal will be the elimination of so many older voters. Eliminate 100,000 -500,000 voters may very well mean that the demographic changes the GOP has been fighting so hard with voter suppression will be accelerated by their own parties incompetence. Unfortunately as has been the case our entire lifetimes, the Dems will clean up the mess while the Pubs while about the pace of fixing their mess.
  11. Florida is going to be the single largest death panel scenario our country has ever seen. Not a fake "death panel' like the GOP used creating the tea party loons, but an actual situation where physicians choose who dies and who has a chance to live. In other words a death panel in each and every hospital in Florida. When in Florida you have more than 20% of the population (2nd most in US) of people over the age of 65, your potential death by coronavirus is statistically a lot higher. So you don't do anything, you invite the spring breakers and literally dirty money, because just like President Trump preached. Go with the economy until the bodies start to pile up. It's going to have proven to be a fatal error of enormous proportions, perhaps only eclipsed by Trump's gross incompetence. Polls show Trump in a decent position now,. The death toll and the steepness of the curve headed towards Florida in the coronavirus death category, is gonna be nearly unbelievable.
  12. I know - I'm ahead of the curve. Think of me as a predictor of the conclusions and actions taken by the Trump administration 14-30 days in advance. Since we skipped isolation due to lack of testing due to lack of testing, and were forced to mitigation (sorta eg:Florida), we might as well jump forward to past determining who has the virus at the hospital, to who has already has the virus. The simple fact is we are never ever, ever going to catch up on testing determining if you are sick at this point in time. IT NOT GOING TO HAPPEN EVER for the US population. So shift to antibody testing! Mainly because by skipping another testing step having already skipped the first two, is not going to create a horrific downside. The virus is going everywhere, and we MIGHT be able actually provide enough antibody testing to for the very, very first time not behind the curve. It's going to take a big pile of bodies, which has already been predetermined (lack of testing anyone?) so let's start marshaling our focus forward to antibodies, and plasma harvesting. We might have a weapon to use multiple ways if we could find immune people (assuming immunity as I always have). Workers for factories to produce respirators. Volunteers to take virus tests on the sick ,and on and on.
  13. Just coming back over to say TESTING, TESTING, TESTING!!!!! 1) Simply because it will allow more people to feel safe to throw themselves into the front line healthcare breaches and know they will not contract, NOR infect. 2) an instant pool of people that could be used to help the elderly and not infect them (still have to use super sanitary techniques to prevent any cross contamination on transferred materials. 3) immune workers could help in manufacturing of critical healthcare materials without worry about infection or infecting others. 4) only way to spark the economy, when folks know they are immune, the US economic engine can again be turned on. https://www.businessinsider.com/coronavirus-germany-covid-19-immunity-certificates-testing-social-distancing-lockdown-2020-3 Eventually we are all going to be carry around some sort of certification card regarding our test/ immunity status. That's about the time we start getting back to normal. Unfortunately since I and Lots of people are talking about" this concept, I expect the Trump administration to plan for something like this.... in perhaps two or three weeks. So maybe testing in mid-July.
  14. I need to start listening to a little Rush Limbaugh. That way I can finish the sentences for those telling me 'their thoughts" on how well Trump is doing. Tough for me to listen to, for certain, likely too tough. But maybe tougher to have me finish your sentence , and then pointed ask if you have any of your own thoughts?
  15. ALSO - don't forget the Trump distraction of the day in an attempt to blunt the reality that we now have 125,000 infected is... Quarantine New York....
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