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LCHorn

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  1. Losers-anyone involved in commercial real estate; owners, investors, brokers, insurers. I also don't have a great grasp of how insurance markets work but I presume that a lot of insurers have significant risk exposure to the bond and equities markets and the flight to cash three weeks ago (and ongoing) surely hurts them, irrespective of policy claims (at least on the medical side so those might be bankrupting, as well).
  2. Not Wulaw but I expect rates to fall a little as soon as the Fed makes clear they'll backstop servicers dealing with a cash-crunch as a result of forbearance. We're not that far off the lows from three weeks ago for people with good to great credit for conforming loans. Government loans are the ones right now (see Mr. Cooper above) that are really getting hammered. Our CEO told us to pass on anything with below a 680 credit score. That said, I seem to recall Jimmy that you're more in the jumbo market and I don't expect those to come down soon.
  3. Our CEO is expecting Redwood and PennyMac to go under soon. That's two more jumbo lenders out of the market place. Echoing Phil--if you have a jumbo loan that's currently being worked on and/or looking to refi soon you'd better get on it. Quicken's probably too big to fail at this point, but I said the same thing about Countrywide.
  4. Good God, well that ruined my day. This is horrible.
  5. Thanks--my Dad was president of the Texas Association of Mortgage Brokers back when I was in undergrad and I've long-held interest in the viability of the small-shop broker business (the world is just a lot less interesting if the big bank cartel makes all the money).
  6. You're most likely going to have less options that a few weeks ago (which means it'll be more expensive). Underwriting is going to be much stricter. Non-QM is gone for the foreseeable future so it's going to limit the self-employed who don't like to pay taxes. I'd imagine a lot of jumbo lenders are going to be less competitive on fixed rate mortgages and more so on ARM's (but that's not a huge change from the present). There's little to no relationship between rates and Treasury notes at present. There's only some relationship between rates and MBS pricing. Now is a great time to refinance, but it's not as good as two weeks ago and there's just of a ton of uncertainty. It could be that faith is restored in the secondary market and rates improve, or there could be a cascade of problems resulting from forbearance concerns and rates jump. The short answer is if you like the way we've done business over the past decade (lock the rate and forget about it) then you need to refinance now. I don't know anything about UWM but lenders with large servicing portfolios not backed by deposits are going to be in for some short-term pain and probably need Fed help to not drown. Main impact to you is you might see your note sold a few times; you'll need to stay on top of where your money is going so you don't have a payment accidentally missed. Otherwise, nothing to worry about on the consumer side.
  7. Re: Rusty’s article-yeah, servicing rights are basically worthless at the moment. There’s probably some permanent structural changes coming out of this. Quicken, for example, isn’t allowing locks until the loan is CTC and I bet other lenders follow suit. Lenders with big hedge operations are getting eaten alive. I said in a previous post that I think more than a few lenders are going out of business and I bet that gets accelerated. I’d also be worried if I was a broker. This reminds me a lot of 2008, absent the fact we (as an industry) didn’t do this to ourselves.
  8. I get the sense he’s not particularly well-liked amongst his colleagues.
  9. Seconded on “hiding Joe” is good politics. From a public opinion standpoint I bet they have analysis that’s got them a little paralyzed (i.e., piling on Trump will play poorly with swing voters, for example).
  10. Holy shit, in all my angst I never thought about the silver lining for Franklin's BBQ--no line!
  11. Short answer is they don't have a direct impact. The Fed issues treasury bonds; mortgage back securities are a totally different type of bond and their pricing is market based. That said, the T note rates act as a floor for bank borrowing costs overall, hence why in a normal environment Fed cuts are favorable for mortgage retail pricing. The problem at the moment is that retail pricing has divorced itself considerably from the pricing on mortgage back securities; the main reason is that banks are at capacity. The way I've been describing it to borrowers is that everyone is getting their money to make loans on a wholesale market; right now, the largest issuers of debt are not passing on the improvement in pricing to their retail channels because everyone's tank is all filled up with refinances. At the top is a cartel of mortgage banks and until the Chase's and Wells Fargo's of the world reduce pricing to try to take market share away from each other there's not as much pressure for everyone else to reduce pricing. In a more normal (even recessionary normal) environment I'd expect rates to move in a positive (i.e., lower) direction over the next few months but all of this is relatively new territory and if I really knew anything I would charge you assholes for it instead of expounding for free. Many of my colleagues are also pointing out that the capacity issues mean that, along with all this uncertainty, there's a high likelihood that lenders are going to be all over the map in terms of pricing. Austin is typically very competitive which means everyone is charging about the same. I think that's going to be less true for the foreseeable future. From a "do I refi now or later" perspective, if it were me I'd get in while the getting is good, as capacity issues don't look likely to resolve themselves any time soon and every third party (appraisers, title companies, etc.) are also going to be affected by volume and capacity concerns, all of which adds to the risk that a lender might not be able to deliver pricing (even if previously locked) if you're not in the front of the line. Lenders are hedging on their warehouse lines and the volatility is just terrible for us. I'd also not be surprised to see some lenders close their doors pretty quickly if the depository banks shut down the wholesale market. The Chase's and WF's don't need to feed the 1000 mortgage banks at the moment (they are getting plenty of their depository customers in for refinances). If you're a lender that doesn't sell direct to Fannie (say a mortgage broker or smaller mortgage bank) and the wholesalers follow what they did in 2008 then it'll be rapid closures for a few and maybe more, despite what would be considered an overall favorable environment for lending.
  12. Sounds like you need a better agent (or need to listen to them more). Pretty much everything in Austin is going above list (it’s like seller’s agents all went to a conference on auctions and game theory). It’s also an area that a good lender can help. We close purchases in 14 days and have found that to be a good way to punch through the multiple offers even if our client’s isn’t the highest. Getting beat on offers repeatedly is soul crushing-you have my sympathy.
  13. This is exactly what we point out when we have someone who wants to see some data on it. Plus all the other life events that might require better liquidity.
  14. Pricing aren't going down that fast. We had someone go under contract last week, list price of $420K and it went for $450K with 12 offers per the seller's agent (caveat Austin, I expect Houston has slacker demand but that's mainly because Houston sucks*). It only takes two to get the bidding going... Re: the Aggie08: I never recommend 15's; not enough pricing discount to justify the opportunity cost of having all that money tied up in equity or making monthly payments. In other words, I don't think you're an idiot (aside from your university preference). *but less so than Dallas.
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