It was very obvious. I called it June 30, as soon as I heard that he doesn't believe that a president should be investigated while in office. He's changed his views after he hypocritically chased Clinton for insignificant charges. Now he's written off investigations for even the most serious of charges.
Combined with the fact Kavanaugh clerked for Kennedy, it was obvious that Kavanaugh was the pick when Kennedy agreed to step down.
He'll be approved. Trump gets what he wants from the GOP, they wouldn't stand up to him if it was Judge Jeanine.
I don't know when the vote will be, but McConnell should wait on a vote and use it to drive turnout. If the GOP loses, they'll almost certainly still have the Senate. If they lose that too, he can ram Kavanaugh through before the new Senate is seated. He has never given a shit about optics and Dems wouldn't be able to stop it.
I don't know if that's what he will do, but it's what his history suggests he'll do.