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Everything posted by atomheartbevo
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Greatest character introduction ever in a Movie or TV?
atomheartbevo replied to McCroskey's topic in Movies and TV
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If Iran is a “hot air balloon” I would think Israeli intelligence would have known that, and therefore there would be no need for the US and Israel to go to war with Iran.
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He and Israel (“damaged not destroyed”) are messing with Trump, who will take the bait.
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The Ten Commandments - coming to a Texas classroom near you!
atomheartbevo replied to Captainant's topic in Daily Texan
It would conflict with coveting thy neighbor’s wife. -
The Ten Commandments - coming to a Texas classroom near you!
atomheartbevo replied to Captainant's topic in Daily Texan
These same people claim the government can’t educate kids and so they need to be sent to private schools instead, but now they claim the government should teach the most important topic of all. I’ve had a few people I know cheering this on, and then I gently remind them that our Governor is a Catholic, and Catholics are the largest group in the state, and to be careful if they want more religion in the classrooms unless they like the new Pope. -
The Ten Commandments - coming to a Texas classroom near you!
atomheartbevo replied to Captainant's topic in Daily Texan
One of my wife’s friends who teaches first grade is already prepared to tell her kids to ask mommy and daddy what adultery is, and what coveting thy neighbor’s wife is if the kids ask. Gonna be some great conversations to be had at home. Probably be a lot of teachers printing out a small copy and putting it with the bullshit on the walls that kids don’t pay attention to. -
Our foreign policy is not focused on what Iran can or can't do, it's focused on one thing And no, I don't know why Dave Chappelle is the focus of our foreign policy, but whatever.
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I am concerned as well that the ease with which the Israelis did their thing is leading people to dream big, up to and including regime change. I don’t know how old you are, I’m assuming you’re in your 40s or 50s like most of Surly, but I also remember them fucking with oil shipments in the Persian Gulf in the 80s and the West having to escort oil tankers. Now they have drones that are extremely efficient and effective and could fuck with shipping like nobody’s business. They can make this painful for us, and they can force us to use US Navy ships to protect oil shipped from Arab countries, and those Navy ships would be operating in a small area, escorting slow ships. And if they try and shut down the Strait, we have to get involved.
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They very well could be taking their cues from FNC and seeing what sells or what gets viewership up. I would be okay with the strikes if actual evidence was produced stating that "in the past month or three, Iran sped it up, and they are weeks away from nuclear-tipped missiles". I would also be slightly more okay with it if it hadn't come literally on the heels of Netanyahu nearly losing his power, and desperately needing to rally the Israeli people behind him. But this is Iraq in 2002/2003 all over again. And we were preparing for Iraq in late 2002 before it had hit the public conscious - I had friends who were prepping equipment/vehicles/etc. in late 2002 for someplace "other than Afghanistan", long before the administration started pushing things.
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If I'm Israeli intelligence, and I have some additional targets I want bombed, I might start saying "well, you damaged it, so maybe it should be hit again, and by the way, there's these other areas where they might have moved some of their materials too, so if you really want to wipe everything out like your President claimed, then you need to hit these targets as well". Trump went out there and told us how magnificent the strikes were, and if Israeli intelligence embarrasses him by saying it wasn't destroyed, he's going to feel like we have to finish the job to live up to what he boasted about.
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It drives me crazy that people I know, who do not watch Fox News, are all of the sudden buying what Fox News started selling early last week. Fox News was opposed to us going to war in Iran, until management decided/were told, and then they started selling us on going to war in Iran, even though nothing had changed in Iran in recent times in terms of things that concern us. It's problematic that in this day and age, people are this easily swayed.
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They have fantastic intelligence. Except when it comes to things happening down the street, or rather, in Gaza.
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Bears repeating: A whole shitload of people who gave no shits about Iran or its nuclear program two weeks ago, or even a week ago (I probably got laughed at lastThursday for posting the above), have all of the sudden decided that we need to go to war against Iran, even though nothing has changed in regard to Iran or its nuclear program in the past few weeks.
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No, but I know that North Korea did it decades ago, based on decades-old technology from Pakistan. And I also know that you and a lot of others here didn't care about Iran's nuclear program a few weeks ago, and nothing has changed within that timespan to make us need to go to war against Iran, other than Netanyahu nearly lost a vote of confidence.
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I trust them about as much as I trust an Israeli leader who very nearly lost power just a few weeks ago, and who desperately needs to get the Israeli people on his side. At the same time though, Iran saw what happened in 2003 with us ginning up bullshit WMDs to go after Iraq, and has probably pondered the thought that the West might turn its attention on them.
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Iraq in 2003 put Iran on notice. Even if we hit their main facilities and kill some scientists, they’ll just restart it elsewhere. Pakistan and North Korea used the same justification to create their programs (not the destruction of the West, but the preservation of their states). There is a survival mentality there that we don’t understand, because that’s 80 years ago for us. And let’s be clear here: this war was most likely started because Netanyahu’s government barely survived a no-confidence vote, so I’m a bit suspicious of anything being said by Israel and the US. Netanyahu needed a distraction and a win in the worst possible way. Edit: some idiot tried to compare this to Ukraine/Russia, which is a very black and white situation. This is all kinds of shades of gray - nobody publicly gave a shit about going to war against Iran two weeks ago, until they were told to care. Nothing changed in the past few weeks or months in regard to Iran’s program.
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As insular as they are, North Korea built a nuclear weapons program 30 years ago from 1970s Pakistani knowledge, and produced their own weapons 20 years ago. It’s 2025. Iran has access to tech that is decades ahead of what NK and Pakistan used. They have plenty of nuclear scientists, many trained in the West at top universities. It is arrogant and dangerous of us to think that bombing a few sites will destroy a program. They’ve had decades of preparing for the West possibly bombing them (our invasion of Iraq over dubious/ginned-up evidence informed them that they were on a timer).
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We did it in the 1940s from scratch with little computing power and no institutional knowledge. They have 80 years of a lot of public knowledge and decades of institutional knowledge to draw from, and computers and manufacturing capabilities that Oppenheimer could only dream of. I would be shocked if they didn’t have backup facilities and/or they didn’t move a lot of stuff around after the war with Israel started.
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Elon Musk: Nazi traitor piece of shit [Confirmed]
atomheartbevo replied to MaybeACoordinator's topic in Daily Texan
He posted this last: @elonmusk Please reply to this post with divisive facts for @Grok training. By this I mean things that are politically incorrect, but nonetheless factually true. 1:38 PM · Jun 21, 2025 ·71.8M Views -
Thank you for your attention to this matter.
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Elon Musk: Nazi traitor piece of shit [Confirmed]
atomheartbevo replied to MaybeACoordinator's topic in Daily Texan
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My 12-year-old understands this better than you: In Ukraine, Russia is the aggressor. In Iran, Israel and now the US are the aggressors. So that's one difference. But here's the bigger difference: Iran can shut down 20% of the world's daily oil consumption. They produce a shitload of drones that would be going up against tankers that you can see for many miles coming, that are slow and can't maneuver worth shit and have no air defense (or sea defenses for that matter, Iran has sea drones as well).
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Putin might like higher oil prices. China definitely won't and who knows what they are doing, but I'm sure they are trying to cool things down through back-channels.
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All these people celebrating this didn't give two shits about Iran's nuclear capabilities two weeks ago. They only started caring because they were told to. Fingers crossed that this goes no farther (further!). And I'm hoping that influential people in the US will shut the fuck up about regime change, because if we make the Iranians think that we are going to make that happen, they have nothing to lose.
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The United States doesn't get to decide how things play out now - we just get to hope Iran does nothing. Because Iran could shut down the Strait of Hormuz, and they are better equipped and better trained than the Houthi. They could launch a bunch of missiles and drones at American bases across the Gulf, bases that do not have Israel's Iron Dome, and we better hope our AD folks are ready and have everything they need at all of those bases. We have American forces in a lot of bases around the Persian Gulf, and in many cases, it would be easy for the Iranian intelligence to have eyes on them, given their locations. Speaking of autonomous warfare, they could flood the Gulf with drones - regardless of how much Ukraine has been supplied with decent Western air defenses, Russia is still overwhelming/getting through them, and there's a fuckton of ships that pass through the Strait that don't have much more than AK's or PKMs to ward off pirates. And you can say "well not if the US Navy has anything to say about it" and yeah, what happens when the US Navy is operating in extremely close quarters in the area of the Strait, with lots of Iranian drones/missiles within range? We have the best fucking navy in the world and second place is not even close, but what happens when we get the 2025 version of the HMS Sheffield sunk or a USS Cole with a hole blown in the side? You think Trump can back down from that? Hell no, he will only escalate things, and boots on the ground would not be out of the question. And if you're Iran, you've probably already moved the good stuff out of Fordow and the other locations, to locations that have never seen an international inspection. I wouldn't be surprised if we bombed empty locations. And the Iranian leadership will have to respond - any major sign of weakness and the population could easily pop off. It may not be Pandor's Box, but we have no idea how this is going to play out, or how many Americans will end up dead or where our military involvement will stop. If Trump conveyed to the Iranians that this was a limited strike, that was an extremely dumbfuck thing to do, because you never tell your enemies where you plan on stopping. The Iranians could strike back at US forces and dare Trump to ramp things up knowing his base would not be pleased.
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