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berlinerbaer

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Everything posted by berlinerbaer

  1. Naw. It was Russia's #7 to blame. The keeper thought he was going to clear the ball away.
  2. Her voting record won't matter. Crowley lost because of his well-known ties to special interests and the Party leadership. If his voting record did him in, it was because of being too cozy with the banks and wall street. As long as AOC is perceived as being a boat rocker to a certain extent, she can represent NY-14 for as long as she likes. Voters won't give a shit if her bills fail to make it out of committee as long as she is seen as being responsive to her constituents. Her fight will be in the press and out on social media as much as it will be within Congress, especially while her kind are still a significant minority in DC. As far as stumping goes, she can help raise money for 2020 nominees without having to look over her shoulder as long as she's also holding town halls back in Queens. Could she become corrupted by the NYC Democratic machine? I guess so, but then so would anybody. I'd be more worried about all this political insanity subsiding someday, and her losing to a well-funded, well-connected moderate primary challenger rather than to another bomb thrower.
  3. She is a shoe-in to win in November and will be for many Novembers to come even if the worst case scenarios you both have outlined come to pass. Crowley won in 2016 by 60 points, as did Hillary. Her district is as blue as they come. Get used to her, unless the Dems in her district get tired of it 8 cycles from now. The Reds may try to put her under a microscope, but unless she is in any position of leadership, such attacks won't have 10% of the teeth of those against someone like Maxine Waters. In 5 years, AOC will probably be just another Barbara Lee, an ultra-left congresswoman from a navy blue district who fills the local papers with the occasional tasty soundbite. Every second Fox News spends on AOC is a second they aren't spending on Chuck and Nancy, or in talking up the Dotard.
  4. I didn't read all 7 pages, so this might have already been mentioned, but take a look at a map of Maxine Waters' district. Her relationship with the right should now make much more sense.
  5. Good. I wouldn't have watched another 90+ minutes of tiki-taka anyway.
  6. My pulse quickened a bit. More of that pls, k thanx bye
  7. One in four women has gotten or will get an abortion during their lifetime. I would guess that number grows if you include the women who will think or have thought about it. So, a lot. https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/to-your-health/wp/2017/10/19/u-s-abortion-rate-fell-25-percent-from-2008-to-2014-one-in-four-women-have-an-abortion/?noredirect=on&utm_term=.c4a1e62b9b7b
  8. We have the most to lose, that's the bottom line, and we've demonstrated just how easily damage can be inflicted upon us. Look, two countries far weaker than we are, as well as one non-state actor, gave us or are still giving us absolute fits for two decades, and one of those (Afghanistan) looks like a lost cause. They've done this using methods of asymmetric warfare not all that different than what the Vietnamese used on us forty years ago. And then there's the Russians, who seem to have thrown our political system into chaos without firing a single shot. But, yeah. We have the most ships and stuff. And really fucking expensive fighter jets.
  9. I was talking Texas State House district 28, not US House. Incumbent John Zerwas has run unopposed since 2010. That district has really changed since then (only 47% white and only 22% Hispanic, so it's full of minorities more likely to vote). Switching gears to the US House, you don't even think Culberson's district is in play?
  10. I've met Meghan Scoggins a couple of times and left with the sense that she knew what she was doing. Getting quoted by the WSJ confirms that. Looking at the district she's running in, there's no way that seat isn't a flip in November. Hopefully it's one of several flips in suburban Houston.
  11. Or, more accurately, everybody else is judged differently than Donald Trump.
  12. Only if we are off the peninsula entirely and it's China with all the regional influence. In that case then yes, I agree with you. Strange, isn't it? It doesn't make logical sense, especially with Trump pulling us out of the Iran deal, which should be a huge red flag to anyone trying to negotiate with the US. The fact that the chips are all falling into place with North Korea despite all of this is more than a little suspicious. My line of thinking is that this all will go over amazingly well, despite the blatantly obvious shortcomings of this administration. We will have to make a MAJOR concession, like leaving Korea completely, but the Norks will similarly make their own apparently huge concessions, like giving up their nukes with UN inspections or basically the Iran deal but with Trump involved so of course it'll be awesome. With us off the peninsula, the threat to Kim's regime is greatly reduced, if not completely eliminated. It also provides China with a key long-term goal. NK won't need the nukes anymore, with their big brother taking over the region. China is playing the long game here, knowing how badly Trump wants a "win" and doing their part to influence American public opinion to bump up Trump's approval. Short term, this will give them brownie points in trade negotiations. Long term, they know he's is the most effective way to cripple their rival. Don't get me wrong. I'll be happy to see the Korean peninsula denuclearized (big if whether Kim keeps his word...) and a part of me wants our military out of SK as well. I'm just apprehensive about China's regional dominance in Asia, our government turning a blind eye to Chinese manipulation here at home, and of course fretting a boost to Trump's approval rating, prolonging and accelerating the damage he does to this country.
  13. Ruh-roh https://www.politico.com/story/2018/05/05/blankenship-polls-west-virginia-senate-primary-570752
  14. Politico shares this view. https://www.politico.com/story/2018/05/06/trump-midterms-republicans-presidency-571550
  15. His domestic policy agenda is looking like an unmitigated disaster, but I've seen some good things out of Trump's foreign policy. Not many, but some. He hasn't been drawn into Syria aside from some limited strikes and I can be hopeful, if pessimistic, about the upcoming meeting with Lil' Kim. His election and administration should force our country to do some real, long-overdue soul searching.
  16. Vietnam, in 1979
  17. NYT has called the AZ-08 race for the Republican, who is leading by 6 points with about 80% of the total vote counted (most early/vote by mail ballots). If the result holds, it would be a +19 swing for the Ds from 2016 results. The district is CVI +13 R, meaning only 93 districts are more Republican. Both candidates were plain vanilla, no scandals, no lack of money, so no excuses for the GOP. The partisan breakdown for the district by registration is 49/30/21 R/D/I. Looking at the current score of 53/47 R/D, there are a significant number of R -> D crossover voters and independents are breaking heavily for the D. That's a nasty combo for the Republicans.
  18. Vaccines for rotavirus are routine nowadays, so it's likely one of the other dozens of causes of viral gastroenteritis.
  19. That NYT article is the first mention I've heard of my own TX 22nd district, and hopefully not the last. The incumbent, Pete Olson, is a fairly popular moderate who has stayed nearly out of sight since Trump got elected, aside from holding a town hall at 7:30 in the morning on the first day of school last September and co-sponsoring the Internet Privacy Raid of March 2017, IIRC. We'll see if he will feel the need to get in with the R loony bin. Sri Kulkarni, my pick, will face off against Leticia Plummer in the May Democratic runoff. Plummer, a Berniecrat, is an otherwise good candidate who plays the gender and race card too heavily to beat Olson, IMO. Her campaign has gathered steam since receiving an endorsement from the "establishment" candidate and last month's 3rd place finisher Steve Brown, who has engaged in a bit of mud-slinging with Kulkarni. I think Kulkarni has done a good job running as a progressive with some moderate appeal, and he impressed me in the few debates and town halls I've watched. Plus, the Indians (dot) of Sugar Land will fucking love him. He can make it a single digit race against Olson, if nominated, and with a good ground game and a few bounces his way, who knows?
  20. Was that earlier report of a Hezbollah C&C target getting hit accurate? Sounds like only 3 targets were actually destroyed. https://www.axios.com/united-states-strikes-syria-b81c0842-ba04-4278-a583-47207ecd840a.html?utm_source=sidebar
  21. Trump's involvement in this evening's events is open to interpretation. We do know he tends to give the military a long leash.
  22. I wonder how long he can hold out. Hopefully, the bags under his eyes are genetic. Sadly, Bolton is the one with the fresh legs.
  23. No doubt that if Hillary were president right now the Republicans would be looking at a supermajority in both chambers, 40+ governors mansions, another decade of favorably gerrymandered districts, and possibly the ratification of the balanced budget amendment by 2021 at the latest.
  24. The US providing cover for French and British airstrikes. I saw this movie in 2011. One dictator dead, the country is still a mess.
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