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berlinerbaer

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Everything posted by berlinerbaer

  1. Throw out the Sienna College/NYT poll, as it's clearly an outlier. Now it's a more manageable 5 point swing that can be explained by his Kav endorsement. I think voters, especially moderates, want to see contrast in candidates, so I think you're reasoning is correct. It has been reported that many volunteers left his campaign following his announcement. He can't afford to lose any door-knockers if he wants to attract these people. I wouldn't be surprised either if some liberals or progressives were turned off by his support for Kav and plan on staying home. It was a mistake. I hope future Dems running in Red Country take heart and learn from his error.
  2. It's always so noticeable when someone can't quite keep the family drama private.
  3. Maybe. Then again, good answers to these questions could help sway undecided voters or even the rare Cruz lean. Keep in mind that Pinocchio isn't there for a rebuttal. The Cruz campaign already screwed up in turning a debate into a nationally televised town hall. If they did plant any of these questions, then they are even bigger idiots than I thought.
  4. The Pubs' message is nationalized. "Supreme Court, Pelosi, George Soros, MS-13, grwahrrr!" This is great for them for the highest level races (Senate) but declines precipitously in effectiveness as you go down-ballot. Even at the Congressional level, more targeted approaches that factor in local politics should hopefully get a lot of Dems elected. Let's cross our fingers that it also pays dividends further down ballot in state and local-level races. I agree with your scenario, but I don't think this will be bad for Trump. Evidence points to Trump doing better in the polls the more he can stay out of the news. The Kavanaugh hearing and passage of the tax cuts are really the only events of his presidency where he saw a bump in the polls during and following their occurrence. Everything else that has come in the news cycle has hurt him. Independents are driving his approval rating now that the D's and R's are all dug in. I'll go a step further. If his shit-show rallies become passe, they will be yet another of his worst traits to be normalized within American politics. That's bad for us all. If he gets reelected, this and the larger subject of voter fatigue would have been a big reason why, despite any problems it causes with Republicans down-ballot.
  5. I thought the hire of Beau Baldwin as OC was a slam dunk. Instead, it has been astonishingly disappointing so far. It's been the play of the defense that has kept me from including Wilcox in that opinion.
  6. Let's not give Waller County too much credit. Better than the alternative, for sure, but it really took the weight of two nearby congresspersons as well as a Rachel Maddow expose to get this corrected?
  7. The Houston Chronicle just threw its support behind Sri Kulkarni in TX-22. My my, how times have changed. Pete Olson used to be the kind of business-friendly Republican that the Chron would have endorsed back in February under a more normal political environment. (That's the breaks when you and your ilk sign a petition to give the Dotard the Nobel Peace Prize over the NK photo op.) I talked to one of the Kulkarni campaign heads about polling, or the lack thereof, in the district. He acknowledged that its been harder to find volunteers in Brazoria County, which is where the election could be lost, but their feelers indicated they had the lead in Fort Bend County and that the race should be considered a toss-up. Just another idea if you're looking to throw another $25 with Act Blue to a campaign that isn't taking PAC money in a district that may be in play.
  8. Enjoy the win. I knew we were in trouble last week when you guys had a pulse against UW while we shat the bed against Rumlin.
  9. Beto's giant haul this quarter amounted to not even fifty bucks from over 800 thousand different donors. For the cost of a couple of movie tickets, those same people can go donate for someone else. Surely that has to be easier than being the GOP and having to knock on the door of some mega-donor and grovel for another $50 million.
  10. Round one of Beto's GOTV effort begins this weekend. They want to knock on over 100,000 doors in two days and make an equal number of phone calls. It would be informative to check where things stand in the polls to see if each campaigns' GOTV effort has any effect as we get closer to election day. Ultimately, comparison between the polls leading up to election day and the actual election result could give us some idea of what kind of impact GOTV has in Texas. Right now: RCP polling average = Cruz +7.0 538 adjusted polls = Cruz +5.6% 538 "classic" forecast = Cruz +4.9%
  11. wrong thread
  12. I gave only to the democratic US Senator, US House, and TX House candidates running in my respective state and districts. If someone else wants to throw money at candidates outside of their state or district, more power to them. I don't want to be that kind of player, yet.
  13. That's what flyers are for. I went knocking for Sri Kulkarni for TX-22 on Sunday and everyone at least took a flyer, even if they said they weren't voting. Three weeks ago I canvassed for Beto and they did pins and stickers but told me to go easy on the flyers because they're expensive. You fuckers better keep donating! Good story, though. I've only gone canvassing these two times in my whole life and I can at least say I'm better than this Allred guy. Some people are "in a hurry" but even the non-voters will talk to you if you pry a little. The anti-PAC money thing is a really good icebreaker. Seriously, though. There are a ton of first time door-knockers like myself walking around out there.
  14. As much as I'd like to agree with you, I can't. Jimmy was 8 years ago.
  15. What a weird ass team these Utah boys are, but I can't complain.
  16. I just saw the attack ad aimed at Beto about the eminent domain thing. Seems a little too inside baseball to make any difference.
  17. The polls lag behind reality by a week or so, so we won't know what effect the confirmation has had until early-middle of next week. That also means that, closing in on election day, things won't be as bad as the polls would suggest, assuming some sort of reversion to the mean. We'll see Trump's approval "peak" at around 43%, which seems to be his ceiling post-inauguration.
  18. An accusation would be enough for me to cancel the interview and pull out another resume from the stack.
  19. Those dudes in Montana aren't knee-jerk Republicans. Tester is going to get reelected and Gianforte is vulnerable.
  20. There's also the whole indicting a sitting president thing on which BK, and only BK, has stated his opinion. I recall Flake grilling him on this specifically during the hearing, as well as the broader Russia investigation. I don't recall Flake signaling he was satisfied with what BK had said. Sexual assault is one thing, but we've all heard a multitude of other reasons why this dude shouldn't be on the supreme court, particularly propping up a president under criminal investigation. Strange that sexual assault still matters at all to the GOP, when all of those other red flags didn't mean shit (except maybe to Flake).
  21. What about Flake? I thought he was still on the fence, with the added bonus that he happens to serve on the committee.
  22. I agree Beto needs to come up with some more one-liners. "True to form" was a hell of a start.
  23. His district is as red as it gets, but wow...
  24. Ted has the numbers advantage, so his strategy is to play it safe. Considering who is registered and who generally shows up to vote, he gets to be his usual, shitty self. The base is all that counts and everyone else can fuck right off. Beto knows he only wins by appealing to as many different types of people as possible. Mission accomplished, although his task is still daunting. Overall, I give Beto the nod, since he gains name recognition just by being on the tube or the radio, and name recognition is what he's still lacking.
  25. Clearly this one flew under the radar. Then again, I don't live in SD19. This should be a wake up call for anyone who thinks TX23 will be anything other than a nail biter. The territory of SD19 and TX23 largely overlap.
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