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berlinerbaer

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Everything posted by berlinerbaer

  1. Warren: I'll serve my full senate term if re-elected
  2. So a 2-deep at every position plus a kicker/punter? Do injuries never happen at ASU? If I were a slacking player, I'd call his bluff.
  3. In response to the state legislature seat that went Dem in January, Walker attempted to get remaining special elections postponed until November, only to be rejected by the courts. I wonder if this is one of the elections he tried to quash.
  4. Your idea is for Trump to do Silicon Valley a favor while extending a middle finger to the Rust Belt, or basically to flush his electoral strategy down the toilet. He isn't that stupid.
  5. Oh please. You wouldn't trust what she said anyway.
  6. Not so fun fact: oaks are monoecious, meaning they are hermaphrodites. They jizz all over you in March and then pelt you with acorns in October.
  7. Trump doesn't drink. The con artist strikes again.
  8. In 2016, sure. But Trump will have muddled through 3+ years of Oval office buffoonery by 2020. His populist message will not be what it once was. LOL, Jesus, no. Liz Warren fires up the base. Her base is Bernie's base PLUS a fair portion of the center-left. Among the two, only one openly calls himself a democratic socialist, and that ain't Warren. She would pull more support from rank-and-file Dems in a general election against Trump than Bernie would. Nobody would sit that one out. The only question mark would be the D to R crossovers, but that would apply with any Dem candidate. This right here. A centrist would make a great VP candidate, but they aren't likely to win the nomination. Instead, aside from Biden, who can run on name recognition, the 2020 Dem nominee will meet one of two criteria: 1) Be a political shape-shifter, someone who is less tied to policy positions and able to change them as need be, ala Kirsten Gilibrand. 2) Be a bona-fide lefty with some crossover appeal. Warren and Sanders both fit this.
  9. I agree, but I think Beto has done a ton to improve his name recognition in prospective crossover (white) voters. The real work is going to come in turning out all the Dems. Results from the primary in South Texas shows there were way too many hispanics who just didn't know who he was. His task is herculean: continue rural outreach while also turning out the more reluctant but solidly Democratic votes. He has the money and I believe the campaign infrastructure in place to do it better than anyone. The question is if it is even possible in 2018.
  10. The base's shift to the left will come into play in the 2020 primary. I don't know about Hickenlooper, but true centrists like Jim Webb will have trouble gaining traction barring a real surge in primary voter turnout, as the case may be if a celebrity throws his/her hat into the ring. A centrist won't beat a leftist straight up, but it all depends on who decides to run. We'll have to see if the leftist vote gets split between multiple candidates, like if Sanders and Warren both run. Then I think a centrist could go deep into the primary. This is maybe the one area where I think the party apparatus exerts some control.
  11. Yes, I think the base has swung to the left since 2016, but that isn't why I think she has no chance in 2020. Hillary happened not because she was more centrist (otherwise Webb would have polled above background noise levels), but because there were really only 3 or 4 legit candidates in 2016 and she clobbered them all in name recognition. Even Bernie was virtually unknown outside of Vermont until 2015. There was no shame in losing to the first black president in 2008, but losing to Trump? I can't foresee how she'll recover from that. She no longer dominates the news like she did in the 90's, or when she was a senator, or a member of Obama's cabinet. The Republicans seem to care an awful lot about her for some bizarre reason, but the Democratic base has moved on to other candidates who check most of the same boxes. tl;dr version: she's dead, Jim.
  12. You're thinking too much about the party head-honchos. Their power, small to begin with, is fading fast, as all evidence since 2016 indicates. Voters, the people who matter, won't pull the lever for Hillary no matter what the DNC tries to say. She is roadkill in a hypothetical 6-way primary with Warren, Gilibrand, Hickenlooper, Booker, and Biden. I've been involved in liberal/progressive activist groups since the election, basically the base of the Democratic Party. Out of a group where about 40% went for Hillary over Bernie in the 2016 primary, I can say with confidence that nobody in that 40% is still excited for her. People throw around a dozen names for 2020. Her name is mentioned as a running joke and nothing more.
  13. This. Racist and sexist stupidity has fared poorly at the polls since November 2016. Not only will women turn out in 2020, but some of 2016's bigots just won't bother. Bottom line: the Republicans need to primary Trump, but won't.
  14. Hillary probably won't run. If she did, it wouldn't matter anyway. Democratic voters are done with her. She won't last in a 6-way primary. I want her to run just to see the Right lose their shit while Dem primary voters calmly kick her off the bus by Super Tuesday. A Hickenlooper/Jones ticket is too centrist. That doesn't fire up the base. There needs to be some policy spread between the nominee and the running mate. There needs to be appeal to multiple wings of the party as well as the center. Sanders/Gabbard mentioned elsewhere is a no-go for the opposite reason, alienating moderates in that case. Hickenlooper or Jones would be fantastic VP picks for any of the liberal/progressive candidates.
  15. In all seriousness, I thought about making a post on the old Shaggy about the white working class becoming culturally ostracized in America, and some of that frustration being manifested in voting for the Dotard. My data points were going to be movies and TV and how there seem to be less out now that caters to this audience than there was 20 - 30 years ago. Roseanne was a show that I would have specifically mentioned. This was 6 months ago before we knew of the remake. I would have been freaking Nostradamus. Now, none of you will believe me. With that said, I doubt the show's good ratings have anything to do with politics. Maybe Hollywood finally is paying attention to an audience it has been ignoring, but even that sounds like a stretch. We'll see how the ratings are for episodes 2 and 3. More likely, it's interest that's purely nostalgia driven. Then again, nostalgia drove some people to the polls in November of '16.
  16. Hillary beat Bernie in the primary by more than 3.5 million votes. That's 12 percent. Not close. Are you suggesting that favoritism toward HRC by the DNC and the media led to her putting up a double-digit win over Sanders among average rank-and-file Joes and Janes in the voting booth? Fact. The Democratic party bigwigs favored Hillary. Here's another fact. It didn't matter. Emails, superdelegates. Sounded shady, didn't it? Except it was completely worthless because the voters took care of things on their own. In the end, it did matter, because it pissed off dumb-ass Sanders' supporters who chose to believe the primary was staged instead of their candidate losing by 12 goddamn points to fucking Hillary.
  17. Cook Political seems to think your prediction is a bold one. This election will be close.
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