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berlinerbaer

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Everything posted by berlinerbaer

  1. Putting all you've got into the one branch of government with the least enforcement ability. Okay.
  2. This. The fact is that nobody knows how a Democrat can win Texas until one actually does. Trump's approval rating hanging at 40% despite him progressively becoming and even bigger piece of shit over the past 20 months demonstrates the folly of attempting to appeal to Republicans. Beto is 100% correct that his path to victory is turning this state from the worst in voter turnout into something better. There are new people who haven't yet chosen a side who need to be targeted. Phil Bredesen in TN has as good a shot as Beto, if not better, running as a moderate. But he's already a household name there, so it's apples to oranges. I do share the same criticism as many of you about Beto's campaign. Particularly his ad buys in the late summer to early fall months and perceived lack of outreach to latino voters. I took it as a bad sign that he lost so many of the border counties during the primary. Hopefully, he gets a big election day turnout.
  3. No. It's a Republican self-own, clearly.
  4. Aaaannnd Jon Ralston predicts Jacky Rosen to win in NV on Tuesday. https://thenevadaindependent.com/article/predictions-for-tuesday
  5. There are ballot measures meant to address redistricting in four states. MI and CO - independent commission for congressional and state leg (all likely to pass) UT - semi-independent commission (likely to pass) MO - independent demographer draws state leg maps, requires 70% of leg to overrule, also imposes campaign contribution limits https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/forget-about-the-candidates-what-else-is-on-the-ballot-this-week/
  6. Eastern Washington can have Beau Baldwin back.
  7. Now if we can only protect the goddamned ball...
  8. Why the fuck is McIlwain playing any more than his usual package plays? It has been well established he's a turnover machine.
  9. Some of those ads are put out by Cruz proxies and not the campaign itself. Beto beats Cruz head-to-head in raising money, but he isn't competing with just the Cruz campaign. He's competing against the Cruz campaign, the Republican Senatorial Committee, the RNC, and too many PACs and other proxies to name. The Cruz campaign money plus indirect investment from these orgs likely dwarfs Beto's $38 million. At some point, the TV ad market reaches saturation, with so many campaigns and proxies buying what limited air time exists. I have no idea how that works.
  10. All counties under 100% of 2014 are rural (no idea why). Davidson (Nashville), Hamilton (Chatanooga), Rutherford (suburban Nashville), Shelby (Memphis), and Williamson (suburban Nashville) are all over 200%. That's the top four urban population areas except Knoxville (Knox county is at 170%). We'd all be jumping up and down if a similar situation was playing out in Texas. This is great news for Bredesen.
  11. Olson came to talk at my company back in 2016 and yes, that's how he talks. He gave some mildly chauvinistic anecdote from his time in the Navy about some poor Australian cadet making a fool of himself in front of an American female sailor. Pretty harmless stuff. He made fun of Trump and told everyone to vote, "even if it's for the Democrat". Fast forward two years and he has singed a ridiculous petition to award the Orangutan the Nobel Peace Prize and is now ranting like a goddamned lunatic. Sri clearly has him rattled.
  12. Only about 20% of the people I've talked to are Cruz supporters because the campaign really did a good job identifying supporters and potential supporters. Most Cruz people fall into one of the following categories: 1) A spouse of someone on my list. This is the most common. 2) The person on my list moved and the new occupants are Rs. 3) The person on my list went off to college but still have their permanent address and I end up talking to their parents. 4) They are wavering Republicans. 5) A mistake in the app. It's definitely an expanded list compared to the Democratic party VAN (list of Dem primary voters). They knocked on 900k doors in the run up to the GOTV phase which helped add some new names, aside from the above-mentioned techniques. When we encounter a Cruz voter, we politely end the conversation and head elsewhere. The feeling is almost always mutual. The undecided voters OTOH we do try to push towards Beto. Most of them will at least hear us out and a few are actually pretty easy to sway. That's how I know that Lobo is full of shit.
  13. Beto GOTV results from this weekend. About 220k doors knocked (short of the 400k goal), brining the grand total to just over one million since 10/13. That's on track to 1.8M knocks total by election day.
  14. It's a purple state with a few competitive House districts, a Democratic governor, and an out-of-control Republican dominated state legislature. The Ds want blood but will be met with a strong R turnout.
  15. The senate and gubernatorial races in CA are in the bag for the Dems. Unless they live in one of the swingy congressional districts, there aren't any reason for the non-partisans to show up.
  16. Mia Love was recently accused of campaign finance violations. https://www.nytimes.com/2018/09/19/us/politics/mia-love-campaign-fund-raising.html
  17. Yes, 3-way coalitions can occur, so the possibilities are endless...
  18. This was a statewide race, not a nationwide parliamentary election. Within Hesse, the current coalition is CDU-Green, which will remain since the Greens picked up just enough seats to maintain the majority despite CDU losses. Bavaria is also CDU-Green. The trends country-wide are definitely more troubling. The Greens aren't popular everywhere, so if the SPD were to lose too many seats in the Bundestag, those seats would be replaced by a combination of Green, Left, and AfD, the latter two of which are more popular in the former East German states. It would be the CDU attempting to put something together out of a bunch of scraps. I don't know if the German system allows for a three-party coalition.
  19. No. He was done. The program was on the verge of academic sanctions and recruiting was tanking in 2012. He needed a few years off. Similar start at FSU as Cal back in '02-'03. The difference now will be that he will have full institutional support at his alma mater that he didn't have at Cal.
  20. It's a waste of time to put much thought into this. 1) WSU 2) Utah 3) Stanford 4) ASU 5) Washington 6) Colorado 7) Oregon 8) USC 9) Arizona 10) UCLA 11) Cal 12) Oregon State
  21. You're right. I can't keep the reality shows straight anymore. In any case, she's not the only Beto supporter who want the gloves to come off.
  22. Things need to get nasty. That's the only way people in this country will snap out of their fucking trance.
  23. Browning is a great college level QB but I don't think he has the arm for the NFL.
  24. Cal just went up on Washington 12 - 7 with a pick 6. Cool, but what the fuck?
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