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berlinerbaer

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Everything posted by berlinerbaer

  1. It's Collins or bust for the GOP. I don't see any other Republican winning an open seat. Maine has really swung left fast.
  2. Hearing this on my drive home from work this afternoon was music to my ears. True, but the 22nd has been gerrymandered to exclude the northern deep blue portions of Sugar Land and Missouri City. It runs east into Pearland as far as Webster and south as far as Alvin. That's a lot of red ground. It's not a R +4. It was drawn up to be more like an R +10 or so, which is what it was prior to 2018. It is eminently flippable as an open seat, like TX-7 2018 flippable. The 2018 Dem, Sri Kulkarni, is running again and has almost $400,000 cash-on-hand as of right now. It's probable that the R who will try to keep the seat red will be none other than Troy Nehls, who is not seeking reelection as county sheriff. Some folks down here have strong opinions of him.
  3. This is correct. Some voters who were reluctant in 2016 were corporatist Republicans who will vote for him again because red team. They are already counted in the equation. This thread should not be about them. A different, maybe smaller group of Trump voters should be the focus: independents who gave him a chance in 2016 but who then proceeded to turn on him and his party in 2018. I see no reason why these people would swing back around and vote for him again. The 538 polling shows a precipitous double digit drop in his approval in his first couple months in office, from which he has never recovered.
  4. The Dem Primary according to Daily Kos readers. https://www.dailykos.com/stories/2019/7/16/1872163/-Daily-Kos-Democratic-presidential-primary-straw-poll-One-year-out-from-the-convention-edition
  5. I hope you looked at #3 or 4 with half as much scrutiny as you did #1 and 2, but I suspect you didn't. Like it or not, all the talent gravitates to the Dems or the Pubs and third parties are full of Whothefucks and Whatshernames. Jill Stein and Gary Johnson are both utter trash. If you really did your homework, you would have stayed home instead of voting for one of those idiots. If you cared at all about third parties, then you would do it all in reverse and closely examine their candidates first and either stay at home or go with the D or R as a fall back.
  6. A party gets desperate as its power starts to wane. Just watch as Texas starts really trending purple.
  7. Wait. How come I haven't heard that Biden, Beto, Pete, and Kamala all dropped out of the race?
  8. It isn't meant for us. Like everything the GOP does, it's for their base stuck inside the matrix.
  9. Because North County >>> East County
  10. How did this happen? I'm not questioning why public sentiment seems to be turning against Erdogan and his party. I'm questioning what happened to his grip on power. First this, and then the protests in Hong Kong and Moscow. Maybe the autocrats aren't winning?
  11. Warren +4 O'Rourke +2 Harris +2 Bernie +1 Edit: It took 25 posts to get Bernie his first vote.
  12. They don't need to be replaced if they don't win the nomination, right? If so, why the fuck are we still dealing with Ted Cruz?
  13. Whatever. Oregon has recruited well since Belotti. Chip Kelly was considered a premier college football recruiter while in Eugene, and he cheated too. They'll win because they're Oregon. They won with Belotti. They won with Kelly. They even won with Helfrich. They only need Cristobal to not screw up management of the program down the stretch like Helfrich did.
  14. I work and have worked with several Iranians and they're all cool people. Sharp as a tack, too. Your average American Christian is more religious. And just like the Russians and nearly everyone else on this planet, they know much more about us than we know about them. This time around we won't have the benefit of a no fly zone in place for a decade. We won't have warring factions to exploit like in Afghanistan. Iran's 80 million inhabitants makes it the opposite of Libya's large swaths of empty desert. The Iranians have hunkered down for 30 years, planned for every contingency, and have had the resources for adventures in Syria and Yemen despite crippling sanctions. No, this is all bluster. There's no way we follow through on this and incur certain casualties, for which nobody in the US has the appetite.
  15. I'm glad I missed out on that earlier shit. Southern Sugar Land was bone dry until about an hour ago. Still plenty of time to get rekt.
  16. If tariffs stay at 10%, then maybe. If they go up to 25%, the US consumer will for sure share the pain.
  17. Muller testifies in congress this month, China talks fail and tariffs go up, sending stocks down, down, down... When was the last war we started purely as a means of distracting the population? Was it one of the Reagan central American skirmishes? I can't even put Iraq in that category.
  18. An armed population is antithetical to an authoritarian government. Period. A dictatorship with the available resources will eliminate all threats to its rule, eventually from present-day sympathizers. The gun nuts will hoot and holler as The Others are rounded up, but how long is that sustainable? Will the old angry white men simply be content to shoot at the dark faces they see on TV for all eternity?
  19. Hey, I also want Trump to be tough on China. That's mostly because economic pain is the only way Trump's approval rating floor will go down, but there is also a little acknowledgement on my part that it's probably working to some extent and the Chinese need to be dealt with.
  20. Outlawing gun ownership isn't a socialist policy. It's authoritarian. You don't need to own guns in a well-functioning democracy. The founding fathers put the 2nd amendment in the constitution as a safeguard to democracy, most likely one that has outlived its usefulness. There's a more important lesson here for you to learn. Under the right-wing illiberal "democracy" you have wet dreams about, you will not be allowed to own guns. They will come for the brown people's weapons long before yours, but they will disarm all of the masses one way or another. Eventually.
  21. Pretty much this. There were some great primary match-ups in 2018, like the Stacys in the GA governor's race and Fletcher vs. Moser in TX-7. The winners of these primaries are the stronger candidate in the general election. Thanks to Joaquin, we won't know if Hegar really is the best option to beat Cornyn. Some of his would-be supporters now might remain invisible to party GOTV efforts, which is an overlooked reason to get high turnout in primary elections.
  22. Warren is in the lead for me right now. I like Kamala and Bernie, too. But, man, ALL of them are head and shoulders above Trump. Voting for every single one in the general would be the easiest decision ever.
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