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berlinerbaer

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Everything posted by berlinerbaer

  1. My pulse quickened a bit. More of that pls, k thanx bye
  2. One in four women has gotten or will get an abortion during their lifetime. I would guess that number grows if you include the women who will think or have thought about it. So, a lot. https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/to-your-health/wp/2017/10/19/u-s-abortion-rate-fell-25-percent-from-2008-to-2014-one-in-four-women-have-an-abortion/?noredirect=on&utm_term=.c4a1e62b9b7b
  3. We have the most to lose, that's the bottom line, and we've demonstrated just how easily damage can be inflicted upon us. Look, two countries far weaker than we are, as well as one non-state actor, gave us or are still giving us absolute fits for two decades, and one of those (Afghanistan) looks like a lost cause. They've done this using methods of asymmetric warfare not all that different than what the Vietnamese used on us forty years ago. And then there's the Russians, who seem to have thrown our political system into chaos without firing a single shot. But, yeah. We have the most ships and stuff. And really fucking expensive fighter jets.
  4. I was talking Texas State House district 28, not US House. Incumbent John Zerwas has run unopposed since 2010. That district has really changed since then (only 47% white and only 22% Hispanic, so it's full of minorities more likely to vote). Switching gears to the US House, you don't even think Culberson's district is in play?
  5. I've met Meghan Scoggins a couple of times and left with the sense that she knew what she was doing. Getting quoted by the WSJ confirms that. Looking at the district she's running in, there's no way that seat isn't a flip in November. Hopefully it's one of several flips in suburban Houston.
  6. Or, more accurately, everybody else is judged differently than Donald Trump.
  7. Only if we are off the peninsula entirely and it's China with all the regional influence. In that case then yes, I agree with you. Strange, isn't it? It doesn't make logical sense, especially with Trump pulling us out of the Iran deal, which should be a huge red flag to anyone trying to negotiate with the US. The fact that the chips are all falling into place with North Korea despite all of this is more than a little suspicious. My line of thinking is that this all will go over amazingly well, despite the blatantly obvious shortcomings of this administration. We will have to make a MAJOR concession, like leaving Korea completely, but the Norks will similarly make their own apparently huge concessions, like giving up their nukes with UN inspections or basically the Iran deal but with Trump involved so of course it'll be awesome. With us off the peninsula, the threat to Kim's regime is greatly reduced, if not completely eliminated. It also provides China with a key long-term goal. NK won't need the nukes anymore, with their big brother taking over the region. China is playing the long game here, knowing how badly Trump wants a "win" and doing their part to influence American public opinion to bump up Trump's approval. Short term, this will give them brownie points in trade negotiations. Long term, they know he's is the most effective way to cripple their rival. Don't get me wrong. I'll be happy to see the Korean peninsula denuclearized (big if whether Kim keeps his word...) and a part of me wants our military out of SK as well. I'm just apprehensive about China's regional dominance in Asia, our government turning a blind eye to Chinese manipulation here at home, and of course fretting a boost to Trump's approval rating, prolonging and accelerating the damage he does to this country.
  8. Ruh-roh https://www.politico.com/story/2018/05/05/blankenship-polls-west-virginia-senate-primary-570752
  9. Politico shares this view. https://www.politico.com/story/2018/05/06/trump-midterms-republicans-presidency-571550
  10. His domestic policy agenda is looking like an unmitigated disaster, but I've seen some good things out of Trump's foreign policy. Not many, but some. He hasn't been drawn into Syria aside from some limited strikes and I can be hopeful, if pessimistic, about the upcoming meeting with Lil' Kim. His election and administration should force our country to do some real, long-overdue soul searching.
  11. NYT has called the AZ-08 race for the Republican, who is leading by 6 points with about 80% of the total vote counted (most early/vote by mail ballots). If the result holds, it would be a +19 swing for the Ds from 2016 results. The district is CVI +13 R, meaning only 93 districts are more Republican. Both candidates were plain vanilla, no scandals, no lack of money, so no excuses for the GOP. The partisan breakdown for the district by registration is 49/30/21 R/D/I. Looking at the current score of 53/47 R/D, there are a significant number of R -> D crossover voters and independents are breaking heavily for the D. That's a nasty combo for the Republicans.
  12. Vaccines for rotavirus are routine nowadays, so it's likely one of the other dozens of causes of viral gastroenteritis.
  13. That NYT article is the first mention I've heard of my own TX 22nd district, and hopefully not the last. The incumbent, Pete Olson, is a fairly popular moderate who has stayed nearly out of sight since Trump got elected, aside from holding a town hall at 7:30 in the morning on the first day of school last September and co-sponsoring the Internet Privacy Raid of March 2017, IIRC. We'll see if he will feel the need to get in with the R loony bin. Sri Kulkarni, my pick, will face off against Leticia Plummer in the May Democratic runoff. Plummer, a Berniecrat, is an otherwise good candidate who plays the gender and race card too heavily to beat Olson, IMO. Her campaign has gathered steam since receiving an endorsement from the "establishment" candidate and last month's 3rd place finisher Steve Brown, who has engaged in a bit of mud-slinging with Kulkarni. I think Kulkarni has done a good job running as a progressive with some moderate appeal, and he impressed me in the few debates and town halls I've watched. Plus, the Indians (dot) of Sugar Land will fucking love him. He can make it a single digit race against Olson, if nominated, and with a good ground game and a few bounces his way, who knows?
  14. Was that earlier report of a Hezbollah C&C target getting hit accurate? Sounds like only 3 targets were actually destroyed. https://www.axios.com/united-states-strikes-syria-b81c0842-ba04-4278-a583-47207ecd840a.html?utm_source=sidebar
  15. Trump's involvement in this evening's events is open to interpretation. We do know he tends to give the military a long leash.
  16. I wonder how long he can hold out. Hopefully, the bags under his eyes are genetic. Sadly, Bolton is the one with the fresh legs.
  17. No doubt that if Hillary were president right now the Republicans would be looking at a supermajority in both chambers, 40+ governors mansions, another decade of favorably gerrymandered districts, and possibly the ratification of the balanced budget amendment by 2021 at the latest.
  18. The US providing cover for French and British airstrikes. I saw this movie in 2011. One dictator dead, the country is still a mess.
  19. Another vote for skyscanner. That site always worked for me. I lived in Berlin for 4 years. That city has it all, which is why I'm a bad person to ask about where else in the country to go... If you are outdoorsy, I recommend the Saechischer Schweiz. An easy day trip out of Dresden (itself a beautifully restored city worth a day's visit), you can hike along the Elbe River near the Czech border in some of Europe's coolest scenery.
  20. Big Horn BBQ just off 288 in Pearland isn't bad. The chicken is pretty damn good, in fact. I've never been to Killen's.
  21. This is where we are with our 2 yo son. Daycare has been informing me the last few weeks that he hasn't been napping for at least one day each week. This week, it went to two days, including yesterday when he fell asleep on the ride home before dinner. That left my wife and I with the dilemma of whether to wake him up and try to feed him and give him a bath, or let him sleep until he wakes up hungry in the middle of the night. We chose the former and he pitched a two hour-long fit but slept solid from 8:30 to 7:00 this morning. The drives in the car on weekends, a tried and true method to knock him out, have progressively gotten longer. I'm resigned to the fact that the early afternoon P&Q will come to an eventual end.
  22. Cook Political makes another 13 districts bluer in their April review. http://cookpolitical.com/analysis/house/house-overview/april-house-overview-ratings-changes-13-districts
  23. I went to Truth for the first time a couple weekends ago and it was fantastic. The jalapeno cheddar sausage was worth the 45 min wait, IMO. Even the cole slaw looked like they spent years perfecting. The free beer with tips was a nice touch, too. Curious what you ordered both times you went.
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