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Hurtlocker

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Everything posted by Hurtlocker

  1. Agreed, i think the only solution they have at the moment is to sell the PacN at a loss, to get out from under the $70m they owe, and then bundle everything into a rights fee. Who needs a linear network, is the real question. If the answer is no one, they're fucked.
  2. Not sure what happened there, but it won't let me delete, enjoy this picture of a cat in a silly hat!
  3. This, trust me, they've seen numbers. They just haven't seen numbers to keep everyone happy. Also, i think they're dealing with something the B12 didn't have to deal with, which is the PacNet. Contractually i think they fed around a third of their football games to the PACN, or around two games per team per year. Dropping to ten means that jumps to 40%, leaving a lot less to sell to other partners. Their best bet is unloading PACN to a buyer and including those games as a rights deal going forward. That is far more difficult to cobble together than just selling rights. Its an anchor currently.
  4. Don't think the money infusion will come in as fast as the PAC needs, but some interesting thoughts from Front Office Sports here:
  5. Why wouldn't they stay with those schools in whatever is made out of the west coast? Oregon State and Washington State will still be there, so that's six. Just depends on if Oregon/Washington/Colorado/Arizona stick around or if you add SDSU/UNLV and some combo like Rice and Tulane if academics is the thing. Indy is a bitch in today's market.
  6. Right, but most conferences require a one-year notice or things escalate. That either occurred two weeks ago or will occur in two weeks.
  7. Right, my point was if they have to give a year's notice, and the time to give a year's notice just past, then they'd either need to have a year without any media, pay a staggering buyout to leave immediately, or they'd have to take whatever deal is offered, which will require a GoR.
  8. They can't be on the media contract without it. So if the fiscal is July to June, that means their exit year is July 2025-2026. The Pac media deal, whatever it is, will start in the summer of 2024. Only way that works is if they sign the media deal and stick around through it, or some really random situation where they're not paid nor shown on TV for a year. Now, could you with a big buy out, sure, but none of these teams are sitting on piles of cash to burn. If USC/UCLA gave proper notice for a giant raise, the rest definitely will too. I'm still convinced that the PAC's fiscal is August/July. Which is the same situation we just discussed, but the window on announcing anything hasn't closed yet. Another wrinkle in this is that the PAC's language just states everything resets on August 1st, 2024. Maybe they don't have to announce if that triggers, they just don't need to sign up for more. This would make the Pac extremely unstable, though, far worse than today.
  9. If 6/30 is the date required to provide notice, then realignment with the Pac is over, at least in terms of schools leaving. The next notice would be next June, with another year out. But to survive that year, they'd need to be on a media contract, which requires a GoR. So if they're not gone before the end of the next fiscal, they're not going to be gone.
  10. Thanks man, I think the USC move was predicated more on getting into the B1G deal than getting out of the Pac's
  11. Yeah Oregon and Washington will end up making more if they joined the B12, than if they stay in the Pac. Though, they'll have an easier run to the playoffs in the Pac. No one in the ACC is going anywhere for a decade, no matter how much bitching there may be. And a decade from now, when this may matter again, conferences may either be unnecessary or be a necessary victim, depending on the POV. The next step to making more money is pooling media rights together, not fragmenting. No pro sports fragment, only college sports. If the top 50-60 programs broke away from all the ties that bind and pooled their rights together, the numbers could become astronomical compared to where the B1G/SEC are today.
  12. Zero chance the CFB puts a playoff game on a Sunday and goes head to head against the NFL. They don't even like doing it on Wild Card Saturdays.
  13. Haha He's got numbers. There is no way you have been at this for a year and you have nothing. He just doesn't have great numbers. And he doesn't have numbers everyone likes. Like a whip in congress, he's not bringing it to a vote until they have already had side conversations to read the room and know it will pass. Maybe Oregon and Washington are great with the TV deal, IF they take 75% of the playoff deal. Maybe Arizona and Colorado think that is too much. Maybe Oregon State will accept anything. Half of them could be waiting until the last minute to find out of he figures out how to pay off their $70m debt, or if they have to factor that into the cost of moving, which is considerable unless you're going to the B1G, which they aren't. That horse trading is going on all over the place because the deal doesn't fit everyone right now. He'll either get creative and make it pass, or those who still like it will be making plans between now and then about what happens if the groups not interested leave. Either way, he wins if everyone accepts it or if everyone waits long enough that they can't get out in 2024. He only loses if schools start leaving in the next three weeks.
  14. Its a long shot for Boise and UNLV to join or its a long shot for the Pac to win over those two? I can see it either way!
  15. This. If the Pac and ACC schools were worth B1G/SEC money, they'd be being paid that. They're not. Outside ND, who is still technically independent, the best remaining value in both conferences is still 60% of B1G/SEC value. About 20-30% higher than the Big12/ACC, but not enough to move the needle significantly.
  16. The B12 would probably be ok stopping, but the moment one defection happens in the Pac, especially after they ghosted the Aztecs, its going to be crazy unstable.
  17. Pac 12 Membership Handbook Seems to be an August fiscal.
  18. I'm beginning to think their fiscal is August to July, so the that moment of one year notice has to occur before July 31st. USC/UCLA announced to be accepted into the B1G to be on the B1G's new deal, which aligned with the B1G's fiscal July. So if a Pac team doesn't give a years notice before the year ends, they won't be leaving until July of 2025, one year into the new contract, so they're there because they chose to be or because they're fucked to be.
  19. I'm guessing its because he has a few no votes on his idea and, to keep it from getting shot down, he keeps going back to try and turn those before he gives it to the group. The challenge is at some point there will be a singularity event where something has to happen. Either the schools will get what they want on that date, they'll leave on that date, or they'll choose not to leave and be fucked to have to accept anything they're offered. He wins in two thirds of those options, so its best to delay.
  20. At this point, i'm not sure that's the case. UNC is definitely not, even with premium carriage in NC for the SEC Network. ND would, but mostly the same as the B1G, it brings in enough to pay for itself, and maybe a friend, which maybe gives UNC a shot as the plus one wedding invite.
  21. It is, i think he means breaking it. Its basically the B12's GoR, on steroids.
  22. Until he has ten votes, I'd be shocked if he presents anything
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