Jump to content

SmokeyTheBear

Certifiably Surly
  • Posts

    3648
  • Joined

  • Last visited

Posts posted by SmokeyTheBear

  1. 26 minutes ago, Brisketexan said:


    They regret being on “team Russia.” The ties between Russia and China aren’t natural. Russia is (as a nation state) Moscow and St Pete, not the Russian east. Their ties have always been of convenience, and “enemy of my enemy” type. But even that is too much - China does not see us as an enemy, but as a competitor. And they are quite serious about competing, but that’s different than being outright hostile. They want to be similarly hegemonic and economically as powerful as we are. They aren’t interested in “sticking it to the West” just because, or even because they are weak (because they aren’t - not like Russia is, for example). Instead, they are interested in building more economic power, and beating us out in certain areas.

    Not nit picking, but just interesting competing takes. Within this, they state that Xi views the west as a threat because we exist in general. It's hair splitting but I took away from it that Xi is more combative towards us at his core as Democratic ideals challenge his world view. 

    *forgot part 1

     

     

     

    • Hook 'Em 1
  2. 9 minutes ago, Brisketexan said:

    Spent the week with a family member who is a real-deal East Asian affairs expert. Asked him to give me his “China TED talk” - what does the best decade look like? His thoughts:

    Peace and prosperity. Our relations with China hit their low point, and are now slowly improving. Xi securing his grip on power is actually helpful, as he’s no longer distracted by those concerns. And he’s got plenty of domestic economic concerns he can and should be worried about. China needs decent ties with the West, economically.

    China regrets its choice to declare a special relationship with Russia. They thought Russia would waltz through Ukraine, and they were wrong (like so many were). Now, their relationship with Russia is a bit of an albatross, although they did manage to get a good decade concession on cheap energy from Russia, so that’s a win. China has also been told that if they arm Russia, they face real-deal crippling sanctions that they absolutely cannot afford (yes, some small arms shipments will make it through, because China is big and not entirely cohesive, but nothing major).

    As for Taiwan, the very strong expectation is the status quo and equilibrium. There is nothing for Xi to gain politically by invading Taiwan. And, at present and for the near future, China simply couldn’t pull it off. The strait is too big - big fat target ships would be out there a long time, and with modern satellite tech, the whole world would see all buildup amd movement. There’s no easy landing spots; where there deep water, there are steep mountains right up to the water. Where there are good beaches for landing, the water is shallow. They’d have to capture a port, with paratroopers. And Hostomel in Ukraine showed them that’s actually quite hard. And military defeat or setbacks wouldn’t help Xi at all. Expect more of the same. China continues its “one China” position, we continue our support of Taiwan without referring to it as independent. Oh, and the local Taiwanese political landscape, which once had an element that looked favorably on possible reunification, has shifted. China’s crackdowns in Hong Kong took care of that - they see now how China doesn’t keep its promises of “two systems.”

    China is also hemmed in by its neighbors. The newly strengthened ROK-Japan relationship is very important. But it’s also surrounded by Vietnam and the Philippines, which are not friendly to it. And the Aussies are a real thorn, too. China has no easy path to military expansion in any meaningful way. It needs to work with them more, as opposed to against them.

    China knows that it needs to expand its economy beyond manufacturing exports, which means it has to look inward. Solving those problems, and its huge demographic problem, are going to take lots of time and attention.

    What China wants to get out of its place in the world isn’t conquest or domination, but status. It wants to be a player. And it’s already done so - it brokered the peace deal in the Yemen civil war. But as my cousin’s Chinese contacts have explained, “when it comes to global diplomacy, China is an adolescent. It is still going to make mistakes, but it is learning.”

    Thought it all was very interesting. And we’ve been having these conversations for 20+ years; he’s been almost entirely right on such matters over the years.

    This statement doesn't comport with the rest of the feedback to me. Do they regret that Russia failed or regret the decision tree that led to supporting Russia. I think they still want to stick it to the West in any way possible and Russia is a great way to go it without it coming back at China directly. My inclination is that if it's not Russia, or North Korea, it'll be some other country. 

  3. It was all that unlimited sweet sweet NRA and PAC money. Funneling Russia funds and then whoops, the NRA wasn't there like it was and they still needed that money somehow. So they take a roadshow to Moscow on July 4th to kiss the ring and ask for more from daddy Putin. 

    • Hook 'Em 3
    • Rage+1 1
  4. On 7/12/2023 at 7:19 PM, Aqua Buddha said:

    Did Florence and Tuscany back in May.  Mixed in a tour to Cinque Terre.  Not bad.  Not bad at all.....

    San Diego in September.....

    Cinque Terre is beautiful and has amazing food. Highly recommended. 

  5. 31 minutes ago, Okie State said:
    2 hours ago, Nice Guy Eddie said:
    Many on the right have embraced the concept of landing on an idea or belief and refusing to ever question it again. Remember how flip flopping was a sin against John Kerry because his position shifted his as he learned more. If you refuse to question yourself or let others question you, then your only option is to reinforce your locked-in belief.

    I immediately write off anyone who is unable to change their mind as a moron who is not worth my time. Absolutely ridiculous that people would consider that a character flaw.

    It's the continual age old battle between traditionalism and progressivism. People hate change and reflexively reject it because it's more comfortable. But we live in an age of drastic change happening at an exponential level with each new technological advance, which in itself is changing at an exponential level. 

    • Like 1
  6. 8 hours ago, Midnight Ambler said:

    Or blowing up their own pipeline. 
     

    I can see Russians doing something like this if their back is against the wall. Like Crimea is about to fall. Total desperation.
     

    That’s not the case currently. Nothing from the last month of counteroffensive makes it seem like things are desperate. In fact all we’ve seen is opposite in western media. The counteroffensive is going slower than expected (from Zelensky), we need more weapons, and show some patience etc.

     

    Here’s hoping that cooler heads prevail. I really wish there wasn’t a nuclear plant chilling in the middle of all this chaos. 

    When you have a CVS receipt length list of war crimes already, sanctioned to the extreme, and happy to bleed your already collapsing population.... What's one more thing? 

    • Hook 'Em 6
  7. 1 hour ago, DefinitelyNotHollywoodColt said:

    I've probably asked this before but is there any chance our defense/intel/state communities have decided that dragging this out somehow benefits the US? I feel like that is China's position on the flip side, it is possible we think the same?

    I see some value to it: bleeding an army out until they essentially do not have one to do these types of actions for another 20 years and forcing the population's hand in making change in their governing systems being the biggest. I'd love to see the data set our government is working with guiding our decision making. Maybe they think if we give Ukraine all they need to take over their territory too quickly, Putin could regroup in some way. Or maybe this buys time for the rest of Europe to ramp up production of their military. 

    :shrug:

    • Hook 'Em 2
  8. 14 minutes ago, Carl Spackler said:

    I can't find Fortaleza Reposado for anything less than $175 out here, which is criminal because I think it lists for something like $60.  Everybody is out of it as well as the blanco still strength.  So that price in Amsterdam is well under market so far as I know.

    That's what I really wanted to hear. Thanks for enabling me and my habit. Now the real conundrum is that they have 2 bottles..... 

    • Hook 'Em 1
  9. 37 minutes ago, GreenspointTexas said:

    El Jolgorio and Sotoleros on the top shelf. Cant tell how much the prices are

    60-100 euros. Any worth snagging? Is the Fortaleza an absurd price? We have a whole bag to check stuff so not worried about cost of bringing back. 

  10. Someone talk me down. I'm in Utrecht, Netherlands for a few weeks and went walking around to find some shops that my family will need to know where they are at. Stopped at a bottle shop and they had Fortaleza Reposado for $90. I know that is a jump in price as the states.....if you can find it. 

     

    Also, very small selection of Mezcal but they have it

    20230627_132215.jpg

    Help me @GreenspointTexas, you are my only hope

×
×
  • Create New...