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bernorange

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Everything posted by bernorange

  1. Yes, my 15+ year campaign of awareness and advocacy on the monetary issue has always been motivated just by the desire to sell all my shiny and save a thousand or so dollars in capital gains taxes. Why bother discussing an issue directly when it's so easy to just impugn the motivations of the kooky "ilk" that thinks differently from the crowd? I didn't realize that character assassination was an arrow in your quiver for good faith discussion these days. ~~~ If you actually want to discuss the issue at hand, I would suggest you spend ~5 minutes reading the material linked in post #5 instead of getting hung up on key/buzz words that I have used when discussing the issue. I have really tried to be clear with my thoughts here, but since folks seem to be super confused about the issue, I'm probably not coming across clearly and I suspect it is because we do not have the same understanding of the base material (the actual legislation). Are you suggesting that the gold and silver markets are not regulated? Are you suggesting that dollar credit markets are immune to dislocations from speculators/ponzi/fraud? I do not believe that would be a likely outcome of the legislation as any speculations into foreign (or private issue) currencies would be subject to capital gains (and possibly sales) taxes. The legislation really only puts the FRN, gold and silver on the same free convertibility footing. Don't get hung up on the "Competing Currencies" title and start thinking about an open ended econ 101/Hayek theory/etc idea. The legislation proposed (referenced in post #5 above) was specific and narrow in focus. Sound money is simply commodity money (and gold/silver just happen to be the best commodities suited to the purpose). A gold standard implies a value peg. That is not what is on the table here. My expectation included a very important qualifier. The qualifier is the whole point. 42. In order to formulate the answer to a question, one must first really define and understand the question. To me, your question is (still) very vague. What precipitated a comprehensive collapse (what conditions lead to it)? What was/were the mechanism(s) in play (ie. how did it occur)? I'm not being flippant here. I'm happy to explore how a world where FRNs, gold and silver have free convertibility might work in different scenarios. But to have a constructive conversation on it, we need to have a common understanding of the issue.
  2. Wordle 585 4/6 ⬜⬜🟨⬜⬜ ⬜⬜⬜⬜🟩 🟨🟨⬜🟩🟩 🟩🟩🟩🟩🟩 Tough one today. I'm satisfied with getting it in 4. Daily Quordle 366 7️⃣8️⃣ 4️⃣5️⃣ quordle.com 🟨🟩🟨🟨⬜ ⬜🟨⬜⬜⬜ ⬜⬜⬜⬜⬜ ⬜⬜⬜⬜⬜ ⬜⬜⬜⬜⬜ ⬜⬜🟨🟨🟨 ⬜⬜⬜⬜⬜ ⬜🟨⬜🟨⬜ ⬜⬜🟨⬜🟨 ⬜⬜⬜⬜🟨 🟩🟩⬜⬜⬜ 🟨🟨🟨🟨🟩 🟩🟩🟩🟩🟩 🟨🟨⬜⬜⬜ ⬛⬛⬛⬛⬛ 🟩🟩🟩🟩🟩 ⬜⬜⬜⬜🟩 ⬜🟨🟩⬜⬜ ⬜⬜⬜⬜⬜ ⬜⬜⬜🟨⬜ ⬜🟨🟩🟩⬜ ⬜🟩⬜⬜⬜ 🟩🟩🟩🟩🟩 🟨⬜⬜⬜⬜ ⬛⬛⬛⬛⬛ 🟩🟩🟩🟩🟩 Guess #6 (for top right) got all the letters, just in the wrong order. Rats. ~~~ Looks like @Rudy Rutabaga and @Craftywidget used the same starter word.
  3. Naughty Dog's Uncharted and Last of Us games seemlessly blended first person shooter, platforming and puzzle solving with cinematics (and tons of character dialogue). Playing Last of Us or the Uncharted games felt like you were experiencing a movie (largely because there was great depth to the characters and story and it wasn't just a thin framework for pew pew pew).
  4. Nicely done! Wordle 584 3/6 ⬜⬜⬜⬜🟩 🟩⬜⬜⬜🟩 🟩🟩🟩🟩🟩 Lol! I used the "enter the first word that comes to mind that fits" method and got it on 3. I spent less than 20 seconds total on it today. Daily Quordle 365 4️⃣5️⃣ 6️⃣7️⃣ quordle.com ⬜🟨⬜⬜🟨 ⬜⬜⬜🟨⬜ 🟩🟨⬜⬜⬜ 🟨⬜⬜⬜🟨 🟨⬜⬜⬜⬜ 🟨⬜⬜⬜⬜ 🟩🟩🟩🟩🟩 🟨🟩⬜⬜⬜ ⬛⬛⬛⬛⬛ 🟩🟩🟩🟩🟩 ⬜⬜⬜⬜🟨 ⬜⬜⬜⬜🟨 ⬜⬜⬜⬜⬜ ⬜⬜⬜⬜⬜ 🟨🟩⬜⬜⬜ 🟨⬜⬜🟩⬜ ⬜🟨⬜🟩⬜ ⬜🟨⬜🟨⬜ ⬜🟨⬜⬜⬜ ⬜🟨⬜⬜⬜ 🟩🟩🟩🟩🟩 ⬜⬜🟨🟨⬜ ⬛⬛⬛⬛⬛ 🟩🟩🟩🟩🟩 Quordle was quite wicked today. I'm still not sure that bottom right is actually a word, but it's the only word that I could enter by the time I got to guess #7.
  5. Interceptor. B grade action movie streaming on Netflix starring a roided out female body builder. Bad guys steal Russian nukes (ICBMs) and try to destroy America. Good guys (mostly good gal actually) defends off shore missile defense platform to save America. At one point in the movie, they list the 16 cities that are being targeted. I laughed at seeing Dallas as the only Texas city on the list.
  6. https://blogs.microsoft.com/blog/2023/01/23/microsoftandopenaiextendpartnership/ https://openai.com/blog/openai-and-microsoft-extend-partnership/
  7. https://www.surlyhorns.com/board/topic/1747-george-clayton-republican-candidate-for-texas-state-board-of-education/?do=findComment&comment=106290 I remember a thread in years past that included a quote from a member of the SBOE at the time who was being critical of Texas schools teaching critical thinking skills. I can't find it, so it's likely from the old site, which doesn't appear to exist any more, so the above is the best proxy I could find.
  8. What the fuck is wrong with you, "What the fuck is wrong with you, 'WTF is wrong with you xxx" threads"?
  9. I would think the answer to a Surly version of this will always be: Yes ~~~ You might end up wishing you had a privacy fence when your new 600lb neighbors are having a pool party in the summer.
  10. Wordle 583 3/6 ⬜🟩🟨⬜⬜ ⬜🟩⬜🟨🟨 🟩🟩🟩🟩🟩 I messed up on guess #2 (didn't use the yellow letter from guess #1), but got 2 good clues anyway and found the solution in 3. Woot! Daily Quordle 364 6️⃣4️⃣ 8️⃣7️⃣ quordle.com ⬜🟩🟨⬜⬜ ⬜⬜⬜⬜⬜ ⬜⬜⬜⬜⬜ 🟨⬜⬜⬜⬜ ⬜⬜⬜🟩⬜ 🟨🟨🟨🟨⬜ ⬜⬜⬜⬜🟨 🟩🟩🟩🟩🟩 🟩🟩⬜🟩🟩 ⬛⬛⬛⬛⬛ 🟩🟩🟩🟩🟩 ⬛⬛⬛⬛⬛ ⬜⬜⬜🟨⬜ ⬜⬜🟨⬜⬜ ⬜⬜⬜⬜⬜ ⬜⬜🟩⬜⬜ 🟨⬜⬜⬜⬜ 🟨⬜⬜⬜⬜ ⬜⬜⬜🟨⬜ ⬜⬜⬜🟨⬜ ⬜⬜⬜⬜⬜ ⬜⬜⬜⬜🟨 ⬜⬜⬜⬜⬜ ⬜⬜⬜⬜🟨 🟨🟩⬜⬜⬜ 🟩🟩🟩🟩🟩 🟩🟩🟩🟩🟩 ⬛⬛⬛⬛⬛ Today's Quordle was a bit tricky. Missed on guess #5, but got lucky on guess #7, so I guess it averaged out.
  11. Fell down an internet rabbit hole and learned about the following crypto based betting platforms. I have not used them. DYODD. https://polymarket.com/ https://www.augur.net/
  12. I credit Lucky's armor wedge for that. I kept waiting for Triton to land a blow on Lucky's unarmored back to see what their weapon could do when it wasn't dinking (langing glancing blows) really strong armor.
  13. We watched Thursday's show last night.
  14. Sorry, the correct title is just: Superbro (not plural). Best laughs I've have from a TV show in a long time. Highly recommend. Only complaint is that there are only 12 episodes total. For some reason the Netflix UI is screwy and it shows you season 2 by default and then season 1. It doesn't really matter though as each show is it's own thing (no overarching story between shows). The last show (end of season 1) with zombies was probably the weakest of the catalogue IMO.
  15. Sorry. FRN is an acronym for Federal Reserve Note. FRNs are denominated in dollars just as gold and silver were denominated in dollars when our country was born. I don't wish to derail this thread on this tangent though. I just used the acronym as a shorthand because I'm lazy and was typing enough as it is. If you are interested in exploring the issue more, I can suggest this link and perhaps we could start a new thread to discuss it: https://fee.org/articles/what-is-a-dollar/ You packed a lot of assumptions into your thesis. I don't see it playing out like you have presented. I agree that allowing gold/silver to compete with FRNs on a level playing field would constrain central banks from abusing monetary policy. I see that as a feature and not a bug, however. I do not believe that the Fed would be completely hogtied from implementing any policy whatsoever though. People do not want to transact with physical metal because it's not convenient. There will be plenty of demand for FRNs (and their digital credit equivalents in bank accounts). Also, banks are not obligated to become gold vaulting services (and if they choose to provide vaulting services, they definitely should not run fractional reserve schemes with them - fully allocated accounts or GTFO). Also, the US Mint's gold/silver coin sales generate revenue for the Treasury's general fund. I do find it interesting though that your thesis presupposes that people will recognize gold/silver as superior to FRNs. How do you reconcile that with your desire to maintain an inferior system? WRT the ('a' really as there have been more than one) Gold Standard- that's not what this thread is about. Competing currencies is not equivalent to 'the' gold standard. If by "forever" you mean "since 1971", yeah. Prior to that, currencies were not 100% fiat. They still got debased, but the systems were not based entirely on faith. Kids today have forgotten what used to be common knowledge. https://www.dallasfed.org/~/media/documents/educate/everyday/money.pdf see also: https://www.stlouisfed.org/education/economic-lowdown-podcast-series/episode-9-functions-of-money Gold/Silver are different from other commodities precisely because they fit the 6 characteristics better than anything else. The FRN (and digital credit bank equivalents) fail as a store of value. They just fail slightly less than current alternatives (yea! TINA). Competing currencies would provide a real alternative that would encourage the FRN to stop failing. BTC (and other cryptos) are unregulated markets and suffering collapses due to ponzi style fraud. Fraud occurs in all markets and systemic risk in FRN (credit) markets (subprime mortgages, pensions, derivatives, etc.) are no different (but much, much worse as they affect everyone and not just speculators). I'm not sure how you think physical gold and physical silver are going to be subject to the same levels of systemic risk as credit markets or the wild west of unregulated crypto - I really don't see it. But even if I conceded that the market for physical gold/silver were somehow on the same risk level, I'm not sure why allowing people to have a choice would be a bad thing. Wrong. The Zimbabwe coins were sold, by law, at spot + 5%. The value of the coins has tracked the spot gold market (plus the premiums that physical gold demands over the futures 'paper' gold spot price). It's in line with any gold coin like the Gold Buffalo or American Gold Eagle from the US Mint. I appreciate that you will engage in me in good faith. I know you to be someone who has been willing to engage in intellectually honest discussion in the past as well and that's why I chose to reply to you initially. I think you misunderstood what I was saying. I'm saying that my concerns with respect to the petrodollar/reserve currency/monetary policy are born out of a long term view. I never said I was "long the dollar" as might be understood in a trading context. I'm saying that I understand history and I'm looking at where we are today, at the news that I've been reading (and sharing) and thinking about the future (long into the future, not tomorrow or next week into the future). When I started raising these issues (back on HF IIRC), no one could even conceive or grok what I was on about. The event horizon was so far away that no one could see it. I certainly didn't expect to see events play out to an end game within my lifetime. Right now, that actually looks possible, though more probably will occur within my children's lifetime after I'm gone. Once again, I'm not advocating for a gold standard. I'm advocating for democratic choice. Power to the people. Perhaps I've done a poor job of communicating. Should Competing currencies (as described in post #5) be enacted, I would not expect gold/silver coin to used in day-to-day transactions unless the Fed (or systemic risk in credit markets) *seriously* fucked up. Market confusion? Over what? Nothing is going to change in markets unless their is a significant impetus (like credit market implosions or irresponsible Fed/Treasury/govco policy). I'm not entirely sure what scenario you are imagining that would entail the things you are describing here. I would expect the most likely immediate result of having Competing Currencies enacted would be for most people to allocate somewhere between 1-10% of their portfolios to holding gold/silver. It's not going to cause a 30-40% "overvaluation" any more than people in China or India buying gold and silver does. The price of physical gold/silver will still be set by the free (and global) market. In my initial response to your 2020 question, I tried (and apparently failed) to address my view that economic conditions in 2020 (prior to the pandemic) were just pendulum swings from 2007/2008. 2007/2008 is where the pressure to the rails got out of hand. Had we Competing Currencies back then, I imagine that things would be very different today. The Fed would have had to let bad debt/credit work itself out of the system instead of embarking on QE and ZIRP. There would have been economic pain - no doubt, but it would have worked itself out and we would have been in much better condition in 2020. That said, with competing currencies, the government is still free to attempt shutting down the country and economy and sending helicopter money here and there. People will either accept it as necessary or not. That's the freedom of choice.
  16. If you watch the first video I posted in post #5, you would understand why that ELO doesn't really make sense. The rules have changed over time.
  17. If Genesis' bankruptcy destabilizes the USDC coin, it would likely trigger another implosion in the greater crypto market. The tweet raises the possibility of it, but doesn't say that there is a known risk in that regards. Gemini and Genesis have been embroiled in a spat for a while now: https://www.kitco.com/news/2023-01-03/Gemini-Genesis-spat-goes-public-prompts-new-criminal-allegations-against-DCG-from-3AC-s-Zhu.html The ripple effect of Genesis' bankruptcy *could* (I don't know that it will for sure) impact Gemini's Grayscale Bitcoin Trust (GBTC) which, again, could have ramifications for Bitcoin specifically and the crypto market as a whole. https://www.kitco.com/news/2023-01-17/If-this-crypto-firm-collapses-then-a-massive-selling-event-in-Bitcoin-would-occur-Scott-Melker.html
  18. Guess #3... What were you doing?!?! interestingstrategycotton.gif
  19. Not really. Where there is free convertability, people can choose whichever currency they prefer for storing wealth and conducting transactions. If folks believe that volatility or debasement are real issues (or worse issues) with physical gold or silver (than the alternatives), they don't have to store or use them. Yes it is. From the beginning on discussions of the petrodollar/reserve currency/monetary policy/etc. I have always held the long view. I'll admit to being quite despondent about the potential for disaster circa 2007/2008, but I was hardly alone in recognizing that systemic risk nearly toppled the dominos back then. I have never claimed that the dollar's reserve currency status was in immediate or imminent danger. I have stated many times that I expected this issue to be a problem for a future generation. The news about Saudi Arabia happened 3 days ago at Davos. You can find it reported anywhere. Here's a report from noted goldbug site Bloomberg: https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2023-01-17/saudi-arabia-open-to-talks-on-trade-in-currencies-besides-dollar I'm really not sure what you meant by the second half of the quote above (where I added italics). You seemed to be getting into a bit of a rant about issues that aren't germane to the thread topic unless I'm misunderstanding you. I started this thread to discuss the idea of competing currencies and specifically the fact that Zimbabwe came pretty close to implementing it. https://fee.org/articles/what-do-we-mean-by-sound-money/ https://www.merriam-webster.com/dictionary/sound money https://mises.org/library/principle-sound-money I chopped out a bit after that question. I'm not arguing for wholesale change of our monetary system. That would be a ludicrous endeavor. I do believe that allowing sound money to be freely convertible and on an even playing field with our existing FRN system would be beneficial. If you believe that it would be harmful, I would like to know why. Apologies. Your question was (and still is) vague and I'm not entirely sure what you were asking, so I gave a general response. If we had had a competing currency system in 2020, the government (and central bank) could have done everything exactly the same as they did in 2020. Zimbabwe is (or did - I think they have now finished minting/selling coins that they planned to sell) selling the coins to the population. The 1toz coins were too expensive for most citizens there from what I read and they had plans to mint/sell coins in smaller sizes (1/10 toz), but I am not sure if they actually ever did that. Regardless, the offering of the coins encouraged investment into the coins (funds going to Zimbabwe's treasury) instead of foreign assets (currencies) and this helped stabilize their fiat currency (see December news in OP).
  20. Wordle 580 3/6 ⬜🟩🟨⬜🟨 ⬜🟩⬜🟨🟨 🟩🟩🟩🟩🟩 That felt good. Especially after yesterday's fiasco. Daily Quordle 361 6️⃣7️⃣ 4️⃣5️⃣ quordle.com ⬜⬜🟩⬜⬜ ⬜⬜⬜⬜🟨 ⬜⬜⬜⬜⬜ 🟨⬜⬜⬜⬜ ⬜🟨⬜🟩⬜ ⬜🟨⬜⬜🟨 ⬜⬜🟨⬜🟨 🟨⬜🟩⬜⬜ ⬜⬜⬜⬜🟨 ⬜⬜⬜⬜⬜ 🟩🟩🟩🟩🟩 🟨⬜⬜⬜⬜ ⬛⬛⬛⬛⬛ 🟩🟩🟩🟩🟩 ⬜⬜⬜⬜⬜ ⬜🟩⬜⬜⬜ 🟩🟩⬜⬜⬜ ⬜⬜🟨🟨⬜ ⬜🟨⬜🟨⬜ ⬜⬜⬜🟨⬜ 🟩🟩🟩🟩🟩 ⬜⬜⬜⬜🟩 ⬛⬛⬛⬛⬛ 🟩🟩🟩🟩🟩 Nice, nice...
  21. Cobalt was decent last season. I know nothing about Death Roll. Claw Viper sucks ass. I know nothing about Ominous. Copperhead v Bloodsport could be a fun match. Good drum v decent horizontal blade. LockJaw v Malice could be interesting, but both bots have disappointed in the past. Lockjaw is usually surprisingly durable. Lucky is so-so. I'm interested to see how Triton works. Their horizontal blade weapon is asymmetrical. Scorpios v Jackpot could be another fun match to watch. Both are decent bots. Hydra v Rotator could be a fun fight too.
  22. Wordle 579 5/6 ⬜⬜⬜⬜⬜ 🟨⬜⬜⬜⬜ ⬜🟩🟩🟩🟩 ⬜🟩🟩🟩🟩 🟩🟩🟩🟩🟩 Arrrgghhhh! Super frustrating word today. I really thought I had it on guess #3 and then on guess #4... I did the same damn thing... Daily Quordle 360 5️⃣7️⃣ 4️⃣9️⃣ quordle.com ⬜⬜⬜⬜🟩 ⬜🟩⬜⬜⬜ 🟩⬜⬜⬜🟨 ⬜⬜⬜⬜🟨 ⬜⬜⬜⬜🟨 ⬜⬜⬜⬜⬜ 🟨⬜⬜⬜⬜ 🟩🟩⬜⬜⬜ 🟩🟩🟩🟩🟩 ⬜⬜🟨🟩⬜ ⬛⬛⬛⬛⬛ 🟩🟩⬜🟩🟩 ⬛⬛⬛⬛⬛ 🟩🟩🟩🟩🟩 ⬜🟩⬜⬜⬜ ⬜⬜⬜⬜⬜ ⬜⬜🟩⬜🟨 ⬜🟨⬜⬜⬜ ⬜⬜🟨🟨⬜ 🟨⬜🟨🟨⬜ 🟩🟩🟩🟩🟩 ⬜⬜⬜🟩🟨 ⬛⬛⬛⬛⬛ ⬜⬜⬜⬜⬜ ⬛⬛⬛⬛⬛ ⬜⬜⬜⬜⬜ ⬛⬛⬛⬛⬛ ⬜⬜⬜⬜⬜ ⬛⬛⬛⬛⬛ ⬜🟨🟨🟩🟩 ⬛⬛⬛⬛⬛ 🟩🟩🟩🟩🟩 I should have known better than to submit guess #6. I should have thought a bit more before guess #8. Rats.
  23. In the absence of legal tender laws forcing people to accept FRNs in commerce, vendors and customers could choose to settle transactions with either FRNs or other mediums (to simplify our discussion, we can focus on just gold/silver). As long as central bank policy is more or less steady, I would expect vendors to be willing to accept FRNs and most customers would prefer to use FRNs for transactions. This would be Gresham's Law in action as you mentioned - no real change from how everything currently works (folks using FRNs and saving gold/silver). Should central bank policy debase the dollar too much, vendors might stop accepting FRNs and demand gold/silver instead. This threat, from the existence of a viable (free convertability) alternative would effect a practical constraint on monetary policy. Uh... No. That is a mischaracterization. It's not so much "distrust of central banking" as understanding history. Fiat monetary systems always fail. Fiat monetary systems always lead to debasement worse than sound money. The dollar has already lost over 95% of it's value in the last century. Recent central bank policies (QE) have blown out asset bubbles and inflation - free money for the uber rich (QE, asset bubbles) at the expense of the poor (inflation). Our system is insane, but few take the long/helicopter view to see it. I have been talking about monetary issues (including the dollar's role as the reserve currency, the petrodollar basis for it, etc.) for years as I believe that these issues are fundamentally important. I'm worried about the future because I understand that fiat monetary systems are not sustainable. I'm not "constantly rooting against". You misunderstand me. I'm desperately trying to wake some people up. I hope we have the courage to change course before steering the ship into the iceberg. I have posted many times in many places over the years that our experiment with fiat currency is akin to playing Shoot the Moon with a set of infinitely long rails. Central banks adjust the rails - loosening and tightening the pressure to keep the ball rolling, but eventually the ball's momentum is going to escape the pressure. It's impossible to keep playing the game forever. We nearly went off the rails in 2007/2008. We're still trying to recover from it. We'd be better off if we weren't playing that game altogether IMO. No systemic risk at all. ~~~ It's interesting what happened in Zimbabwe. They didn't fully implement the Competing Currencies idea, but they came pretty close and in doing so, stabilized their hyperinflating fiat currency.
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