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PTINS

Burnt Ends
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Everything posted by PTINS

  1. The Russian aggy government abruptly announces that oil and fuel rushing and passing production numbers will now be a state secret — Interfax Texags
  2. Thanks for posting. We were at Eglin AFB from '62-'66. My dad was able to take us out to the test ranges where we could see live fire exercises (Vulcan 20 mm rotary cannon), strafing runs, napalm, touch and go's. We used to fish off the "target docks." The Navy would coat them with napalm, and tow them out to the Gulf for target practice. Sometimes we would see the docks coated with the napalm. Good thing we weren't a bunch of fire bugs. The "Climatic Hangar", or McKinley Climatic Laboratory, was literally the coolest thing I ever saw. They could make temperatures between -65 degrees Fahrenheit to 165 degrees Fahrenheit with a simulation of all climatic conditions including heat, snow, rain, wind, sand and dust. They made instant popsicles on Armed Force Day.
  3. That would be Red Adair for you young 'uns. A fire requires 3 things; fuel, oxygen and an ignition source. To put out the fire, remove one of the three. Well blowouts are much less common than in times past. Most oil exploration is done via computers and data processing and not so much drilling "wildcat" wells looking for the big one. Knowing exactly where you're drilling and what you are drilling through minimizes surprises, and safeguards are in place to protect against accidents. Fuel In the event of a fire, one of the first things you do is shut off the fuel source. For a well, you close the valve, or deploy the blowout preventer, which may include massive shears the cut the pipe and block the well bore. If that doesn't work, call Red. A tank fire is relatively simple compared to a well fire. You know exactly what you are dealing with, and it isn't under a 1,000 pounds of pressure. Simple you say? Reminds me of a discussion on Simple Harmonic Motion with my physics prof (TA), in which he brought up watching a coed walking across the mall, braless. The harmonics are simple, but the motion is certainly not. And yes, I continue my research whenever the opportunity presents itself. In this case, they built the tanks close together. Probably seemed like a good idea at the time. In this case, isolate the tanks, or empty the tanks, or let them burn out. Ignition Source To put out this fire, you have to remove the debris from the fire, the red hot steel plates and piping that will reignite gas and liquids on contact. For this fire, that is damn near impossible while the fire is burning. You can't get close enough to see what to do. Oxygen Red used dynamite in the old days, they probably use something similar now, but more stable. The explosion consumes the oxygen and the fire goes out. Putting out a fire by setting off explosives next to tanks full of diesel and jet fuel? Let me think about that one. In Iraq, I know they mounted a jet engine on a skid and tried to blow out the fires. I expect they had some success, and failures. The ACME products probably worked best. Yeah, trying to do anything, with a drone looking over your shoulder? You're fucked before you start. Terminals are the delivery points, at the "dumb" ends of the pipelines. They typically don't have the pumps required to boost the pressure to move the products from the terminal to the pipelines. Kind of like pouring your water bottle into the garden hose to fill up your upstairs toilet. 1 of the 4 things you need to know to be an engineer; you can't pull water.
  4. Sorry, you already know the answer. Until they put it out, or until there is nothing left to burn? They probably tried the "easy" stuff already. Dry chemicals and foam are options, but bigger fires require matching quantities, and, well, ...it's Russia. They could empty the tanks into rail cars, but the rail facilities look to be very close to the fires. Whatever water supply they had on site is probably gone, so having to bring water to the site is problematic. I'm guessing they don't have a large enough water line already, so building one is an option, though not timely. Bring in rail cars full of water is next, but slow, and getting the water to the fire appears to be an issue. The fire will burn until the source is cut off. With multiple tanks burning, they cannot get enough water to control the fires. Over time, as the fires burn out in the core and spread, they may be able to put out the tank fires that are somewhat isolated, but the tanks are very close together, so ... At some point, the tanks themselves will fail, meaning you have a large, shallow pool burning instead of just the top of the tank. The increased surface area burning closer to the ground will heat the tanks quicker, and again, they are very close together. Black smoke is indicative of incomplete combustion, meaning there is more fuel than oxygen. The hydrocarbons burning are greater than the air feeding the fire, and have been for 8 days. The one thing you never forget about watching videos of old fires and explosions is that the films survived, but the photographers? Not always.
  5. Realistically, it would probably mirror Kurst in the last 3 weeks. But it has the equivalent or cornering an apex predator, with a Halloween mask and plastic fangs. And nukes. Yeah, sanctions are one thing. Physically taking over their oil export assets is a different ball game. That basically kills their economy. A stray missile or two, and the world economy is put in play. Even with sanctions in place, more than half of Russia's pre-war exports are finding their way into the market place. Price is negotiable. Supply is not. Believe it. Or not. That is all that matters. To the US, China, Europe, SE Asia, to the industrialized world. Like it or not, most will 'accept?' war crimes, as long as it isn't against them, and as long as their day to day life isn't impacted. But, once you've identified the end points, you know how far you can go before you get to the middle. Belgorod is well within that space. "I'm gonna be watching you."
  6. The Konro Trader was a "Roll On-Roll Off" transport ship, set up to load and unload railcars. A satellite photo from 2013 shows the Kavkaz Port. The recent photo's indicate the Konro Trader was similar to the ship on the south side of the dock, and was berthed on the north side of the dock, where it sank. The reports stated in was loaded with ~ 30 tank cars. It looks like it could carry 50 tank cars, or smaller quantities of larger rail cars. A tank car holds ~ 30,000 gal, so the missile hit and sank the ferry, along with 30-50 tank/rail cars, with ~ 1,000,000 gallons of fuel, and probably some ammunition & other supplies. I read Russia had 3 ferries, with 2 reportedly sank and the last one was damaged earlier in the year and was being repaired. Losing the roll on-off capability is huge, with the alternative being to load individual tractor trailers that take up more space and are limited to 10,000 gallon cargos. I remember early in the SMO, the tank trucks targeted were a "notable" number, and I expect the inventory is low given Russia's preference on rail service. Like the absence of NCO's, I don't believe Russia has the equivalent of independent tuckers like the US has. Yet another case of their antiquated logistic's network going to shit. Lose a refinery unit or two? No biggie. A few storage depots and terminals? Okay. A couple of rail bridges? Hum? The pawns are almost all gone. Now, they are losing bigger chess pieces. The cumulative effect of losing the bits and pieces in the fuel supply chain is starting to add up. FAFO.
  7. The rare Covid Super Senior that gets play for Texas, more rare that a Cinco Ranch kid made it to Austin. Here's to one more good year in the sun.
  8. Marinovka Airbase, June 2022 photo, (~350 miles SE of Kharkiv), all the planes clustered close together, pre Pearl Harbor strategy. Marinovka Airbase, April 2024 photo, some of the planes clustered close together,with the shiny new hangers built during the SMO. Sounds like the Fucking Fucked Fuckers are all Fucked up. You gotta love the irony of Russia having this massive military complex, protected by the thin veneer of a belief that no one would ever attack them. Over time, technology evolves, developing satellites with a 3 inch resolution, a GPS system that put the cross hairs in your ear hole, and guided munitions that can put it all together. And still, the belief that no one would ever attack them. The reality; And then, one day, you launch a Special Military Operation, with a 3 day plan that includes sending in the troops, with their parade dress uniforms packed, but with no food or water. Yeah, Custer had a plan, too.
  9. Funny. I love it! To be clear, I'm a Gas Processing guy, not an oil guy. Oil refineries take the nastiest liquid occurring in nature and make it useable. Its a dirty job that has to be done, and oily impurities and dust makes for some ugly pictures. Gas processing requires the understanding and proper application of technology to Newtonian Physics, and has a legacy of sharing best practices. When you have that understanding, you can build stuff that works, and doesn't leak. And the pretty blue flame is kinda cool. Another reason US facilities don't look like that, is that shit burns. You can throw a lighted match on diesel and the fire will probably go out. (No Darwin entries, please!) But once it starts burning, and gets hot, it starts readily vaporizing, and the fire increases in intensity. The tanks in nice little rows looks good n pictures, but there is one big reason not to put them too close together. At some point the radiant heat ignites the vents on the tanks, or, the vaporization rate exceeds the tanks relief valve capacity, and you get a BLEVE, a boiling liquid expanding vapor explosion.
  10. This project was always a very low probability, before the SMO began. Pre war costs estimated at $50+ Billion. Get the 2 worst business partners in the world on opposite sides of a contract, trying to get the other guy to put up the money.
  11. Nope. It's in their DNA.
  12. Proletarsk State Reserve Fuel Facility answers most of my questions. I expect this facility is on on the VIP tour, so the monies budgeted were actually spent. Of course, some of the tanks may be empty. Given the nature of the facility, I would guess it also stores aviation fuel. The larger tanks look to be 65-70' diameter, each holding ~1.4 million gallons or 33,000 barrels. Total facility storage ~ 2.3 million barrels, ~ 100 million gallons. Lots of inventory going up in smoke. By comparison, the US Strategic Petroleum Reserve stores crude oil, not refined products. The US meant to reduce the impact of crude oil imports. The number & volumes of US refining capacity is such that the daily production volumes and associated storage are suitable for the demand. In all my years, building facilities to protect against rockets & missiles & bombs never was a criteria.
  13. The oil facility in Proletarsk, supposedly hit by Ukrainian drone attack. The diesel fire sent 41 firefighters to the hospital. One article mentioned secondary explosions. This "oil" facility doesn't look like anything in Russia, or the US for that matter. The facility is new, built in the last 10 years. It is clean and well organized, square layout w/ uniformity, tanks appear to be on poured concrete pads, very unusual, maybe they don't have caliche. Why do they have so many smallish tanks, (70 @ ~ 70' diameter) for diesel? Why not a few larger tanks? Diesel burns, but it doesn't explode like gasoline or natural gas. It's not close to a refinery; the facility is remote, 1 mile from everything, with a dedicated, dead end rail spur. No truck loading facility, to access to water, no vehicles and no parking lot. There is a double fence around the perimeter, with guard towers at the corners. Lots of tall antenna's, weird light poles? Definitely military.
  14. Shock and awe? "... a military strategy based on the use of overwhelming power and spectacular displays of force to paralyze the enemy's perception of the battlefield and destroy their will to fight?" So even Margarita's friends (the boobs on the TV, not the fun bags) suggest that Russia evacuate all the people from Kurst and let Ukraine borrow it. Openly talking about preparing the Russian populace for what's gonna end up happening? Calling attention to the 3 day SMO now at 900+ days. The rot from the inside is always the worst. Beyond an incursion into Belogrod ... I thinks that's the whole enchilada. I'll post separately with some details, but I think the Belrogod area is it. It's interesting reading about the Russian bunkers in the border areas, like underground cities. I liked the part that said Ukraine had the plans on a lot of these areas and that Moscow probably doesn't. Fortified underground command and control on Russian soil is intriguing. The Kurst Oblast has 1.1 million people in 11,000- square miles, or ~ 100 people per square mile. Basically, an area the size of the Texas Hill Country with a population density less than half of Llano County. Not really the kind of place you would bomb to get rid of people, The Donbas advance has been unwelcome news, but I agree they are very different things, tilted in Ukraine's favor. Donbas would be a good place to christen the F-16's.
  15. Thanks! Not to make this about me ... but its about me! Growing up around B-52's, I never liked Russia, and over the past 900+days, I have come to hate damn near everything about them. But this board wouldn't be here without them. I read your posts on other threads here, but nothing else come close to this one. And the info shared by so many here as been one of the most educational opportunities In my not so young life. I have all these obscure, useless facts taking up precious space in my head, things I will never talk about, unless its to myself, and I can't be here for 10 minutes without those factoids bubbling up from long term storage. Coupling what I think I know or remember from long ago with a wiki query and a Google search and the information at our fingertips is light years different from using a card catalog and the Readers Guide to Periodical Literature. I have other vices from the days of my youth, so if I take off on a circular tangent, ... be nice. This response was to your quote on the B-52 sortie from Barksdale to Iraq. I "know" a B-52 from Barksdale went down with a nuke a long time ago, but only because my company, before my time, had to relocate some pipelines in the general area. There is so much info out there now on all these things that were classified when we heard about them, but not on everything. So, now Biden is reading Surly? From the link: When you start adding up all the bits and pieces left of what was Russia's domain and arsenal of destruction from the Cold War, there isn't much left. Other than the nukes. The green area is bordered on the west and south by Ukraine, on the east by the Ukraine forces, and on the north by the River. I'm having a hard time seeing how (or why?) any Russians could get down there in the first place (see below), unless they were baited to come on down ... Taking out the bridges is strategic. If Ukraine takes out the 3 rail bridges over the Seym River at Lgov and Kurst, Belgorod is cut off from rail service from the north. Rail to Kharkiv would still be an option. The polygon is 10,000 sq miles. Lions & Tigers and Bears? How about F16's & Abrams & Challengers & ATACMS & JASSMs? "You have horses golf carts and motorcycles!!! What were you thinking? You ignorant servile scum!" Fixed it for Webster. That's a Bingo! My Google Earth sleuthing indicates the video is of the Seym River Bridge at Zavannoe. Apparently the one at Glushkovo was also hit, but the video is mislabeled. You can see the waves washing up on the banks in the video. The banks are not exposed on the Glushkovo Bridge. My parallel is drilling for oil & gas wells. It used to be hit miss; lots of dry holes. Not anymore. It's hit, hit, hit. Shits happening fast!
  16. I went back and looked at the Compression Stations along Russia's Urengoy Pipeline. Russia has 42 stations along the ~2,700 mile, with the average station about ~ 150,000 HP. A GE Frame 5 Gas Turbine (a DC-1O engine) produces 25,000 HP, this is probably what was available when the pipeline was built. My info is dated, but these would have been $10+ million each when they were installed in the 80's. Here is the Kurskaya Compressor Station about 50 miles upstream of Sudzha.~ near Kursk. The five blue buildings would be the larger gas fired turbines. The compressor station is a much more substantial facility than the Sudzha Meter Station. There are actually multiple pipelines in this pipe corridor and the smaller, similar facility in the lower right probably serves one of the other pipelines. These stations are all located ~ 2,000 feet away from the mainline pipe corridor. In the event a pipeline ruptures, by man or my nature, you don't want to be anywhere close by when it happens. They had an accident on this pipeline in 2007. "As a result of the gas explosion, the crater with a diameter near 100 m remained; the territory with a radius of 1.0 km was completely burnt out. The trees were charred and the soil was changed to an orange substrate (burned into glass). Separate parts of the pipeline were ... blown ... away by the explosion a distance of 60 - 70 meters." The 56" pipe weighs about 1 ton for every 4 feet of pipe. A 56" pipe, at 1,000 PSI, open to atmosphere, would have ~ 2,500,000 lbs of thrust, about 2X the Space Shuttle. That would be before it ignited. Russia Gas Pipeline Explosion
  17. I was wondering, "How far away can an F-16 launch a missile? , and Voilà..., the answer magically appears. The AGM-158 JASSM-ER (Joint Air-to-Surface Standoff Missile-Extended Range) has a range of over 575 miles, and carries a 1,000 pound warhead. The US, Poland & Finland already have these in hand, I think. Russia built 497 TU-22 variants, with the first flight in 1969, and they still have ~ 55 in service. (55/497, 11%). I think this is #4 or 5 they have lost (by Ukraine, or crashed) since the SMO begin. They are definitely a finite resource, one that has had operational issues since it was introduced. Russia only keeps these at 3 bases, 2 near Moscow and one in Irkutsk, near Mongolia. For comparison, the US built 102 B52-H, entered service in 1961, and still have 76 in service (~ 75%).
  18. The Belata Air Base in Irkutsk is 2,800 miles from Kharkiv. Russia is estimated to have 50ish Tu-22M3 "Backfires" remaining. It appears Russia is systematically reducing their national defense to support the 3 day SMO.
  19. There are a lot of these little towns with the same name. The 2 different Lyubimovka's are shown directionally from the Kurskaya Nuclear Power Plant, one ~ 12 miles south, which is where I think is Ukraine, and the other about 23 miles north. My color code; the orange labels are where Ukraine is/has been (maybe just attacked, not necessarily troops on the ground) and the red labels are where contract between UK-RU has been reported. The green area is the 700' elevation plateau, the highest ground other than the area southeast of the Sudzha-Kurst Road (R200). The light blue lines are railroads. The light blue area is my guestimate of what territory Ukraine "holds", ~ 800 Sq Km. Along the road towards Lgov, it may just be a few recon vehicles and troops driving down the road looking at the farms along the way. Keep in mind, on White Tail opening weekend, one could argue that the "Texas Militia has taken over the state", given the large numbers of armed and camo'd green men with provisions for an extended stay. What is Ukraine doing here? Generally, Ukraine wants to push Russia's glide bombing attacks further rom the border. Not sure if this area fits that description. A hell of a bargaining chip when it comes time to sort all this out.. This area is only ~ 200 miles east of Kyiv, and 300 miles SE of Moscow. (Austin between Dallas and the Valley), a big cork between Russia & Ukraine, with a Nuke, the a big fucking Ga$ line. Between this area and Balarus-Ukraine border to the west, there is hardly any infrastruture. Towards the east, their is rail between Kurst and Belgorod. The terrain itself looks more like the Columbus-La Grange without any significant geographical features, towns in small river valleys surrounded by farm land. Talk about a giant cock roaches with tanks and armor and F-16's. Other than carpet bombing the area, not sure how Russia can get them out. Tanks pulling up at a Denny's for breakfast? I love it!!!
  20. When Conoco was building their Polar Lights Gas Plant in Russia in the 80's, they were discussing staffing levels after start up. Conoco said 25-30, Russia wanted 500. One question came up, "What are they going to do?" Efficiency and technology were never part of the equation, as we all know by now.
  21. We talk about force multipliers, I think Russia has force dividers. Early in the SMO, when Russian guys were unloading trucks by hand, shell by shell rather than having pallets, I really started questioning what I thought knew. Knowing they wrecked their training capability, which was probably B-/C+ to begin with, and watching their fiasco trying to take Hostomel Airport, nothing makes me think they have any semblance of a coordinated, well conceived plan, and that was 2 years ago. Putting a flying chassis on their dumb iron bombs is the most innovative thing we've seen. Pretty sure the launch point for those things is getting ready to move way back. They have regressed to using personal trucks, golf carts and motorcycles. Up against ATACMS and F-16s?
  22. I will tell you what I know from a US perspective, where there is substantial operational and safety oversight (industry peer review) and instrumentation and telemetry that permits operational balancing on a near real time basis. Custody transfer measurement affects $$$, between the regulated pipelines, for profit pipelines, marketing companies, municipalities, end use customers, etc. I would be surprised if Russia is anywhere close to US standards. The mega $$$ joint ventures w/ western oil companies would be the exception. To clarify one thing, it is a "slug" , not sludge, of liquid hydrocarbons that condensed from the gas stream. You sell the heat content of the gas or the volume (gallons) of the liquid, with the liquid value ~ 5-10X gas value, depending on many different factors. The Natural Gas Liquids (NGL) are my domain. This station is primarily a measurement facility. That would include monitoring pressure, temperature, density, and gas composition to measure the volume and thermal content of the gas being delivered. Generally, you would have some version of this at every facility along the pipeline. Generally, Custody transfer measurement is a higher level of accuracy than operational measurement. Usually you have measurement wherever gas enters and leaves the system, or close to lines of demarcation (borders/state lines/open water crossings, etc.). In this case, the border crossing warrants measurement, "...this is how much gas was delivered from Russia to Ukraine." From the map below, you can see the line crossing into Ukraine near Sumy, where it branches from 1 big line into 3 smaller ones. Keep in mind this is a schematic depiction, the actual connections maybe closer to the border or further into Ukraine depending on the terrain, proximity to roads, power lines, cities, etc. Everyone of the these branches would have measurement. Gas (vapor) is different from oil or gasoline (liquids). For liquid pipelines the ins and outs have to balance or something bad happens, you open a valve before you close a valve. The compressibility of the gas allows some surge capacity; you to put more in than you take out "pack the line" and simply raise the pressure in the pipeline. Long, large diameter pipelines have a large amount of "surge or storage" capacity. Taking out more than you put in is similar, but different. Lower operating pressures affect delivery capacities, so there are limits on taking more than the contract quantities. Ideally, the instrumentation along the pipeline has alarms for any operational anomaly that can be identified, and corrected or remedied before something bad happens. Gas will leak until it is shut off, dissipates, for finds an ignition source. Contrary to what 99% of non-industry people think, Safety is always the top priority.
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