There is one oil market in the world. ~ 100 Million BPD is produced and consumed.
If the supply is cut by 20 Million BPD, you have 100 Million of demand chasing 80 MM of supply. Everybody gets fucked, except the producers. Everybody.
The US is an exception. We are a "net producer", good for the US producers.
BUT, and that is a big BUT, the US exports a lot of the lighter grade sweet oil produced from the shale plays, and it imports a similar quantity of the heavier, sour oil that is the preferred feedstock for the US refining industry, which was retrofitted 20 years ago to produce transportation fuels; gasoline, diesel and jet fuel from the bottom of the barrel oil production.
In the event of a Strait shutdown, the imported oil will come at an inflated world price, and gasoline and diesel prices will rise proportionally, which kicks the US economy square in the nuts.
World Class tankers are 2-3 million bbl capacity, ~ $160-$250,000,000/per load.
And you worry about auto and home insurance.
IMO, If Iran wants to start some real fuckery, the Strait is it. Light one tanker up, and everybody is in the game. Iran gets creamed in the process, bombed to the stone age, but everybody will pay for it for a while. The prices always go up a hell of a lot faster than they come down. Prudent refiners will secure long term supply under long term contracts, and prices won't come back down until the long term contracts expire.
I think Iran follows previous actions, tells the parties that be in advance, they are going to make some face-saving response, but behind the closed doors, they push away from the table, and
... there is not a reasonable mind within a sniff of the table.