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PTINS

Burnt Ends
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  1. PTINS

    Patrick Mahomes

    Mahomes has the luxury of playing for KC, an organization that personifies that word. They have been that way since the day one, a really long time ago. The Hunt's have never made this about them, always standing behind the scenes. So rare in professional sports. Andy Reid has always wanted a QB like Mahomes to run his offense, and he will continue to thrive in that offense. The organization, coaches, and star QB all fit the same mold. It's hard not to like that. Great place for Bijan to hang his hat.
  2. PTINS

    Patrick Mahomes

    Mahomes has led KC to 5 straight AFC Championship games, going to the 3 Super Bowls and winning 2 of the 3. He has clearly been less than 100% for the past 3 games, but still made amazing plays down the road to lead his team to big wins. His is fortunate to play for Andy Reid, who finally has the QB he always wanted. Patrick is still in his 20's. He still has some time to mature and grow up before he finds his place among the NFL greats, but the group is getting smaller.
  3. These annualized statistics might be 100% accurate, but the results yield a meaningless metric. I recognize the discrete data is not readily available. The EIA numbers above just note the actual power produced over the year v. the rated capacity over the year. For CC-NG, this means the plants ran the equivalent of 100% capacity for 55% of the year to meet electrical demand for the entire year. That does not mean the plants were shut down and idle for 45% of the time. The reality is most gas fired power plants are "turning to right" and generating power 24/7 for 350+ days a year. The daily demand profile implies they need to run at capacity (~75 GW demand) for 6-10 hrs/day during peak daylight hours, and something less than capacity during off-peak hours (~ 50-60 GW demand). Similarly, they need to run at higher production rates in the summer v. the winter. The plants are still running 24/7, and flexing from 40-100% capacity during the each day throughout the year, as dictated by demand. The variability makes fossil fired generation the prefered swing power generation source. When I say 24/7, I mean on online and producing power 24 hours a day/ seven days a week, regardless if the plant is at 40% power or 100% power. The variable is the demand for power, not the availability of power generation. Fossil plants are able to flex from 40% capacity to 100% capacity within hours according to demand. Nukes have that availability, but it is not practical to cycle them throughout the day. Renewables produce according to the weather, they do not have that on/off availability, regardless of demand for power. IN 2021, everything went wrong. The entire state having record cold at the same time for a really long time. Freezing and failing power generation and distribution systems reduced power availability, with the necessity for discriminate load shedding, which included shutting off power to gas processing plants, which further reduced gas production, which reduced gas fired power generation, etc., cascading to a big pile of ... Winterizing gas processing plants? They are already built that way, with heat tracing and insulation on susceptible equipment, pipes and valves. Gas processing plants, with 100's of millions of Ft3 of gas per day going through them, are dependent on purchased power, including the electric power for heat tracing. When the power was cut by ERCOT, gas processing plants, like most of Austin, were shut down, and froze. It's ironic that the plants are not designed to be shut down in a cold state for prolonged periods of time. Nobody talks about prioritizing natural gas assets to a hospital level hierarchy, but they are a critical piece of the gas supply chain.
  4. This. LHN makes it easy to follow whatever sports are in season. I would hope the expanded SEC would move in that direction. They will get tired of seeing Texas towards the top of all sports all the time and I would expect the rest of the SEC to broaden their support for more sports to be more competitive, which will challenge some of their athletic budgets (football).
  5. Or next to me. A few observations; (1,x,2 not shown) I spoke briefly with the 3 ladies on the front row, none of them spoke back. One of those smiled, his wife I think (red?). The one in front, zero sunshine, looked at me like Ossai looked at the Okla State QB. The facial expressions. CW. Bond villain (eyebrows), pride, and the 3 guys on the second row. They appear to be locked-in and trying to process everything they're hearing. Bet they never looked like that in class. My thoughts, exactly. But, my reality, is that none of my closest family, friends, or colleagues have the opinion and understanding of Ukraine-Russia I do for the simple fact I read about it every day, and they don't. Is it a self-fulfilling prophecy because I immerse myself in all things Ukraine? No, I read Surly, I am enlightened, I'm a smart dude, I get it, I'm kinda like Kasparov. Poor Brisket forgot his umbrella... ha ha ... rookie mistake... I forgot my wallet & cash. Ok, maybe not like Kasparov. Reminded me of the UT lecture series after Watergate, hearing every swinging dick blaming the system, but one; Senator Sam Ervin, D., NC. RIP. "The system worked. They broke the law, and got caught." Seeing Alex Haley speak in the late 70's was awe inspiring. Over the next few years, we traced our family to the 1500's. I sat next to the young sophs who brought their chess boards for an autograph. They came to see the Chess Grandmaster, knew very little about Russia-Ukraine. I gave them a short Surly brief before. After, the enlightenment they showed was refreshing. I told them, they would always remember tonight, not because of their autographed boards, but for what they heard. Last night, front row center, for Garry Kasparov; No question about being in the presence of greatness, by far the most intelligent person I've ever seen, heard, or shook hands with.
  6. Damn!!! Kasparov is a smart mo fo!!! Even a bigger brain than Brad. (After I reflected on this, is it because he believes the same things I do? No.) In addition to being the #1 chess player in the world for over 20 years, the man has an encyclopedic knowledge of dates and history. He has been warning about Putin for 20 years. And, he must read Surly, 'cause he echoed a lot of what we read here every day. Sorry Brisket. Great summary. I didn't start taking notes until ... I have added a few comments to Briskets. (I asked, nothing was recorded, and no transcripts coming). Very powerful words, thought provoking, and entertaining. Sharp dressed man. Small entourage. (1,3,2)
  7. We saw the AN-225 when it came to Oklahoma City in 1990, along w/ 2 Sukhoi Su-27's, the first time they had been showcased to the "west." Both were equally impressive, the wings of the 225 hanging over the taxiway on either side, and the way the plane appeared to fly in slow motion as it took off and lumbered around the airport. The SU-27s were amazing, the equivalent of "chicks dig the long ball." They had the stage to themselves, letting their balls hang. They did an ultra slow speed pass, pitched up at roughly a 45 ℉ angle. I'll have to find my old photos, pre-digital age. I don't think they allow this at airshows anymore. Seeing Soviet Fighters over Mid-America was an eerie feeling. Notice the smaller C-141.
  8. Anybody going to this?
  9. I thought they landed on one runway (west) and departed on the other (east); do they takeoff and land on both runways all the time?
  10. I’m curious. Today I went on google earth looking got past US places I’ve visited, and a lot of stuff is blurred with no historical imagery available. New Google policy, some body lost the files, or coincident to Chinese ballon overflight?
  11. We used to go there when I took Drivers Ed. Tooling around in the country eating a hot link, good times.
  12. Yeah, the smoke makes your eyes water, but the meat ... ooohhh, talk about...makes your mouth water, and you make uncontrollable uuummm sounds! My Family moved to Bastrop in 1871, been cooking over oak since then. My uncles cooked for the National Guard for 25 years, and have cooked for our Family Reunions since 1980. My grandmother's (1900-1968) family is 1 of 8 (last picture, 12 UT grads), ~ 250-300 people total. We usually cook ~ 15-20 ~ 15-20 lb briskets, and ~ 170 lbs of Elgin Sausage (Southside Market). No complaints yet, except from maybe the family cardiologist.
  13. Speaking of renewables... The costs of solar panels has come down, in part, because plastics (hydrocarbons) replaced the glass or metal. Know what they do with retired windmill blades? Nothing. They have no use and are buried. They are primarily made from fiberglass, which is not biodegradable.
  14. What’s the top source of electricity in your state? First, generally Hydro > Wind> Solar> Gas > Petroleum > Coal ; Nuclear is in a class by itself... Ok, but for 24/7 power generation, Hydro is good, wind & solar need not apply. The evolution of Coal to Gas to Renewables will be a long process, with Coal to Gas in about the 2 or 3rd inning. Just, within the US, there are widespread areas where Coal fired power generation is dominant. The main reason is coal power generation is proximate to coal reserves. Secondarily, limited gas infrastructure has hampered meaningful growth. Please note Colorado's primary source. In those coal states, as a 24/7 source, gas needs to replace coal as a first step. Worldwide, coal-fired power generation is by far the dominant source. Regardless of what the US does, if gas (nuclear) doesn't start displacing coal worldwide, it doesn't really matter. Yes, Coal is being retired. A lot? ok, how much is a lot? Yes plants are being retired, but not enough to move the needle. Growth in electric cars? Yes it will come. The average price point needs to come way down for the average consumer. Agree, no one is building new coal plants. "Entities with money": New renewables go to the front of the line and can produce at 100%. If there is a need for incremental demand, only then can new gas fired plants come on line as a peak shaving plant. That inherent unfairness kinda distorts the economics, doesn't it? So, dinosaurs lived ~ 100 million years, human ~ 200,000 years. We still have a ways to go. If, and when, we have reliable 24/7 alternatives to oil & gas and all their derivatives, O&G will go the way of the dinosaur. We just need a way to make plastics. and a bunch of other products without hydrocarbons. Queue Red Foreman. Think you can go 7 days without using a petroleum product? Renewables have their place and are an important part of the matrix, but they are not a 100% reliable 24/7 fuel. Not anywhere close. By the way, you do know that oil production saved the whales, don't you? Eliminated the need for whale oil in lamps. I doubt this. Where is the power generation coming from at night when the wind isn't blowing? The Amoco (BP) Texas City refinery was built in 1934. They focused on making transportation fuels, as they did not see an alternative to that in the foreseeable future, ~ 50 years. Make that ~ 100+ years. Other than rubber bands(?), there has not been a viable alternative as it relates to aircraft transportation. What is your solution? Who is paying for all the electric fueling stations between I-35 and the west coast, and the power lines to serve them? Generally, oil makes gasoline, distillates (diesel & fuel oil), lubricants, and asphalt. Natural Gas Liquids, seperated from gas, are the preferred feedstock for chemical plants to make plastics. You recognize the need for oil & gas derivatives, but not to use them as transportation fuels, or as a power generation fuel. If you can't do without the derivatives, you can't do without the primary source. 100% of NGL are consumed, with an ever growing worldwide demand. The only country with the necessary gas supply and the NGL infrastructure to matter in a meaningful way is the US. THE US IS THE ONLY COUNTRY. What are you going to do with the natural gas, once you've removed the NGLs? Flare it? What are going to do with the cleanest, most abundant naturally occuring compound known to mankind?
  15. To do it after the fact, I agree on expense. We moved to new build area on top of a limestone plateau with a thin veneer of topsoil, and all the utilities are buried. I'm guessing the developer opened the ditch, each utility installed their stuff, and developer closed the ditch. Power line maintenance is ugly for both utilities and landowners. Only in extreme cases do landowners ask the utility to come cut on their trees. Once they are out there, do they make a cut for the next year, or one that will suffice for 10 years? Blaming utility officials, weather people, etc. Good for you if it makes you feel better. You can only do so much, and mother nature always wins. Always. Ice storms are prevalent in this part of the country, and there is not much you can do about it. We consume more energy here than almost everywhere, because it is hotter here for more hours of the day, more days of the year, and it is humid, not dry. At some point, the bigger lines have to go above ground. If they get enough ice on them, they are coming down.
  16. We did some of that; and it's fucking worse!!!!!!!!!!! I'm 8th generation Texan, born in Austin, dad was born in Pflugerville and mom in Bastrop. In 2014, we bought our "final resting place" in Driftwood. The developer gave me the plats and I drove my F250 through the country to see what area looked like. We choose 2 lots covered w/ mature oaks, a couple of 4 ft diameter (~ 100-150 years old) and about thirty 2-3 ft diameter. The rest of the lot was covered with persimmon, cedars and algarita. We turned the house on the lot to face the line of large oak trees towards the south. The builders who bought 20-30 lots were pissed to holy hell that I got first pick of the lots, the corner with the big trees. We kept it natural, selectively removing small trees and trimming branches to optimize esthetics and habitat for the Hill Country critters. We also did not put in a lawn, because watering a large lot in the Hill Country is STUPID. Until 2 days ago, we enjoyed our little island covered with a canopy of mature oaks, that has served as a mini oasis for whitetail deer. Every spring, we have been blessed with new fawns born here, and every fall, trophy bucks have come by looking for a hookup. That literally came crashing down yesterday and today. These are the same twin trees, 2 years apart. February 2021 February 2023 Yesterday, Feb 1 Today, Feb 2 Every tree I have looks like this. I am crushed. I have no words to describe my emotions this morning.
  17. I lived in Tulsa then, 1980. I remember they took all the tree debris to the river channel as a large, central place to process the waste. There was a stench of damp and decaying vegetation from the huge mounds of dead trees. I am so sad that central Texas will look like a massive tornado just sat on top of us.
  18. Saw this on ... gulp ... Tex Ags Interesting read, kinda long. I don't recall reading anything from this website here. I make no representations on the validity of the article. The gist of the article is the Russian Cruise Missile shot down last week has some features that may have not been known to "western intelligence" (my word). The Drive /The War Zone Intriguing Features Seen On Largely Intact Russia Cruise Missile Wreck "One of Russia’s most modern missiles, and one that has ravaged Ukraine in recent months, came down relatively intact in Central Ukraine. Pictures of what looks to be the relatively intact remains of a downed Russian Kh-101 air-launched cruise missile offer an unusually clear view of some of its features. This includes a look at what appears to be the camera for its Otblesk-U electro-optical guidance system and what may be some kind of countermeasures system. The Kh-101 in question was reportedly shot down by Ukraine's forces in the country's central Vinnytsia region on January 26." "Whatever the case, this would not be the first time that the conflict in Ukraine has exposed a previously unseen countermeasures capability on a Russian missile. Ukrainian battlefields have already proven more broadly to be a goldmine of at least partially intact examples of all manner of higher-end Russian weapon systems and other military equipment ... It's all but certain that officials in Ukraine have forwarded details they've gleaned, and entire captured systems, along to their international partners, including the United States, for further analysis."
  19. Driftwood. I always wondered how Abbott had a tree fall on him. Not anymore. Fuckin' brutal.
  20. Thanks for posting. Surprised it wasn't paywalled... "Last week, the U.S. and Israel carried out their largest-ever joint military exercise involving more than 7,500 personnel from both countries and a series of scenarios to test their ability to take out air-defense systems and refuel jet planes—both of which could be key elements of a major military strike on Iran." "Israel’s latest strike comes as Israeli and American officials are discussing new ways to combat Iran’s destabilizing operations, including its deepening military cooperation with Russia." "The main target of Saturday’s strike was a warehouse located behind a mall in Isfahan that Iran said was an ammunition storehouse. Satellite imagery released on Sunday appeared to show minor damage to the building. The small size of the blast indicated that the target wasn’t an ammunition storehouse, instead, it could have been a lab or military-logistics site. Satellite imagery showed the warehouse is located across the street from a site belonging to a unit of the Iran Space Research Center—a U.S.-sanctioned organization that has worked with the Shahid Hemmat Industrial Group, which is responsible for Iran’s ballistic missile programs, and the Iranian Ministry of Defense." I get the sense this was more of a FAFO reminder and not an attack to destroy Iran assets. The target in Ishran is deep into Iran, ~ 500 miles from the northern border. The "target" was across the street from a a U.S.-sanctioned organization, responsible for Iran's ballistic missile program. The drones came in naked, without any air defense suppression of any kind. The "target" of the attack was clear, with visible holes in the roof. The "target" was across the street from a a U.S.-sanctioned organization, responsible for Iran's ballistic missile program. There did not appear to be an explosion at this particular "target". It appears Israel snuck into Iran in the middle of the night and did a "ding dong dash" just to show they could. Why send an instrument of war 500 miles to take a dump on a building across the street from a coveted military target? Israel - Operation Opera
  21. You think China can waltz in and "re-conquer" Taiwan without anyone noticing? Taiwan is the world's largest supplier of computer chip manufacturing, with a $Trillion economy connected to every major economic power in the world. "... people would not be happy with them" is a bit of an understatement. The Taiwan Strait is probably the most watched space of open water in the world, next to the Strait of Hormuz. The responses above detail why this is problematic, especially with nobody watching. Whatever issues China has to deal with today, they are positioned to capitalize on a neutered Russia, become Russia's #1 export market and decrease China's oil & gas costs ~10-40%. Mega Billions of $$$. You think China would rather have some Iranian Rials (equals ~ 0.000024 US Dollar) instead? It's like China got a bye to the finals of the World Poker Tour for just sitting back and watching. Will China trade that for a front row seat on how effective the US front line weapons really are? I think not.
  22. Not sure how one would quantify that. From a natural resource and economic perspective, I don't know if anything compares to this. This is a dated slide, but the general comparison is still representative. Russia used to be the #2 producer of Oil & Gas in the world, behind the US and well ahead of Saudi Arabia. The US & Russia are more balanced between oil & gas production, while Saudi is much more oil heavy. Russia's gas production pushes them past Saudi Arabia. One main thing driving the US & Russia gas production volumes is market for the produced gas. The main reason for US & Russian export volumes is because pipeline deliveries dwarf LNG deliveries due to efficiencies and economics. Russia killed the golden goose, the European gas market, in February 2022. Increased pipeline deliveries to China are at best 10 years away. Sanctions will crush the Russian domestic industrial demand and over time, the sanctions will cripple Russian oil & gas productive capacity. Russia production will eventually find its way back into the marketplace, but as a secondary supply source at a much different price point (see Venezuela). Rough numbers, Russia put ~ $250 Billion/yr of O&G exports at risk by invading Ukraine.
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