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Everything posted by PTINS
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anybody got the pic of Perry thowing the Hook 'Em sign?
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Hydrogen sulfide is a chemical compound with the formula H2S. It is a colorless gas, and is poisonous, corrosive, and flammable, with trace amounts in ambient atmosphere having a characteristic foul odor of rotten eggs. That green slime may be some other toxic soup, but it is not Hydrogen Sulfide.
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Unless you join the Ukraine version of Mossad, you won't see it. You may read about it occasionally where a high profile war criminal had an "accident." It will happen. It allways does.
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I think with the amount of informatiion available on the specifics of Russian forces, (name, rank, personal & weapon serial numbers, hometowns, military history, etc.), the likihood that a Russian war criminal slinks back into his pre war life without consequences is a low probability. It won't be in the Hague, but justice will be served.
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Not my area of expertise, but ... With the new artillery Ukraine has received, UA can easily hit a target 25 miles away, which puts Belgorod, a major Russian rail & supply junction, within reach of the Ukraine border. I'd stay out of Russia, and just lob in 155mm rrtillery as needed, and redeploy other available assets to the south and east.
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The "rapidity of the withdrawal" was a major cluster fuck without proper consideration of the longer term consequences. Very similar to the coincident decisions to dramatically reduce the US production and use of fossil fuels, and the "need" to inject trillions of $ into a rapidly recovering economy. The Afghan disaster is precisely the reason we choose not to arm Ukraine with better weapons until after the invasion. The US intelligence community was spot on, but that does not necessarily apply to the US Government.
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Russia average DAILY losses over the past 10 days: UAV 11 These appear to be more reconnaissance than offensive weapons, comments? Tanks 20 Artillery 8 Armored Vehicles 37 Other Vehicles 31 Russia only lost 13 aircraft & 1 helicopter in the past ten days; probably due to fewer flights and avoidance of better UA air defense. Is Russia "saving" their air support for some offensive move? Tanks and armored losses total 57 per day, indicative of more and better drones and artillery operating in open terrain. As UA receives still better drones, longer range and bigger artillery, and more air assets, Russia's losses will increase. It appears Russia will just pound civilain targets until they can't. Viet Minh soldier: Do we take prisoners? Lt. Nguyen Huu An: No. Kill all they send, and they will stop coming.
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https://www.reddit.com/r/ukraine/comments/ue739c/the_burning_of_the_moskva/
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Rural Germany, which is a continuous blanket of small towns and villages every 1-2 miles, burns fuel oil & wood for heat. No natural gas network, no propane, solar occasionally. I expect imported "wood" from the US is cheaper than the indigineous wood. Probably just checking whatever box on the form is closest to reality without intent to mislead.
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On my 944S, you needed a lift to drop the wheels so you could change the oil filter. To change the lower radiator hose, you needed a special 30" long screw driver, or a triple jointed wrist. Marvel of engineering what they got out of a 4 cyl engine, but totally impractical to maintain.
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Will Americans accept a +/- 25% increase in natural gas costs/electricty to keep Europe from depending on Russia? If not, EU's next choice is Qatar. They turned to Russia because the US did not present a viable option and the Middle East was a shit storm. In addition to the 25% gas price increase, will Americans accept the increased oil & gas development, pipelines & LNG facilitities? LNG can always expand in Texas & Louisiana, but it makes more sense for Appalachia gas to flow to East Coast LNG facilities. Russia's gas production capacity is a sunk cost with deliverability capabilities to Europe already in place. Post Putin, Russia gas will flow to Europe as a secondary supply source because the delivered cost is so much cheaper than LNG.
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In the 90's, we lived in Colorado and routinely made mexican & cajun food for our Au pair's from Germany, Finland, Norway & South Africa. Good times. If I wasn't from Texas we never would have left. Couldn't smoke brisket in my grill because the fire kept going out; not enough air.
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Russia wants Ukraine to disappear. End of Story. Pure egotistical driven politics regardless of economics. Geography and economics dictate that Russia's world class gas reserves go to Europe. Politics said don't do it. Money wins. Ukraine is the gateway for a lot of Russia gas heading toward Europe. Control of Ukraine = Control of Russia gas to Europe. Nordstream was supposed to minimize Ukraine's "influence" of Russia gas flow. Russia fucked that up, whether they get Ukraine or not. They are the poster child for demand destruction. Too bad Russian game theory didn't consider, "... what happens if we invade and don't get Ukraine?" With Sweden, Finland & Ukraine off the table, Russia's "sphere of influence" is going to be down to Belarus. Whopee!!! Russia's gas market? The Russia-China proposed gas pipeline, Piece of Shit Power of Siberia (POS), is a $20 Billion, 2500 mile venture, including 600 miles across Mongolia. Russia's gas influence in Eurasia is nonexistent post 2030. Their market is basically China, which has zero dependence on Russian gas. Russia's options are drop your price or keep it in the ground. Ironically, the end game could be Russia's land-locked captive gas will be a cheaper "secondary" supply source for Europe than the new waterborne LNG, and eventually the Russia gas will resume full flow to Europe, but without the Putin-premium. Cheap pipeline gas backs out expensive LNG, and ... Money wins, again. Europe thrives with cheap fossil fuels and a strong renewables. 4-D chess.
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Looks like Tarzan ... Plays like Jane. I have to admit, that's a Bad Ass looking warship (first pic).
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Re: Governmental Policies My bad for too general of a comment trying to meld CR correctness, catching up on Surly, and posting at 2 am. I meant all government, from the Feds to the States, to the counties, locals, neighborhod HOA's, the NIMBY's, ad nauseam. Ironically, President Obama's "all of the above" was the most practical energy policy in place since my time on the 40 acres. Be flexible, keep your options open. I agree that large worldclass O&G facilities and large population centers should not be colocated and no pipelines through Barton Springs or across my ranch. Other than that ... If your really against O&G development, sell your car and walk, sell your house and go live in the woods. Throw away all your plastics. Otherwise, STFU!!! oops. Sorry. Unfortunately, the O&G industry is a lot like Russia. They only play defense and really suck at offense. An "Image Consultant" at a O&G conference said there are a small handful of organizations supporting O&G devopment, and about 800 orgainizations whose only goal is to make sure you never drill another well anywhere. Play offense and get proactive. Unfortunately, that ship sailed a long time ago. Monies that should have been spent educating people went into politicians back pockets. Democracy works best with an educated populace. I'm continually amazed at what I hear or read coming out of "educated" peoples mouths, the same mindless dribble as an Iraqi or Russian press secretary. That's what happens when your post college education comes from 280 character tweets, you tend to make decisions using the mental horsepower of a gnat. The extreme polarity of US politics as it relates to energy makes me happy I'm on the back side of this and only deal with it by choice, mostly here. Now we are reminded, again, that poor decisions and the importance of affordable energy prevails over all the basic tenants of a civilized society. It pisses me off. "I have sworn upon the altar of God eternal hostility against every form of tyranny over the mind of man." Thomas Jefferson has always been my Hero! Add Volodymyr Zelenskyy to my list.
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First, I'm trying to keep this CR free. Thanks to all of you for the information sharing on so so many related subjects. I walk away for half a day, and damn, ... shit moves fast around here! So, There are 3 contries that are the pillars of O&G production that control, through production or influence, the balance of worldwide supply & demand; The US, Saudi Arabia & Russia. The US has always had the reserve base to meet European demand, but maximizing production, at moderate oil prices, has not been the goal of the US since the early 80's. Germany and the EU looked to Russia, because neither the US, nor anyone else, was available. We ignored her, she left for a wife beater, and here we are. When the 2020 denominator is tiny, any increase in 2021 will lead to record earnings. Did the companies that went bankrupt or were consumed in "mergers" also post record earnings? If Chevron makes $8 Billion/year, is that too much? That's about what they payout in dividends. To keep production flat and just offset declines, and save some for a rainy day, they need to make a lot more than that. Thank you. Vertically integrated means they make money on production, refining & petrochemicals, and marketing & trading. Usually, they make money in 2 out of 3, no matter how hard they try. The independent production companies (no downstream integration), the smaller guys that drill most of the wells, live and die with roller coaster prices. By defintion, they have to sell someone to the integrated companies and independent refiners and pet-chems. The midstream industry, infrastructure gathering, compression, processing & pipelines, is all built on term, take or pay contracts, meaning they pay for the service whether they use it or not. Even when it's uneconomic to drill and produce, they are still contractually obligated to pay the midstream fees. They start up and a lot of them go bankrupt. When the price is right and capital is plentiful at low borrowing rates, drill, baby drill. With the anomalies in supply & demand & price fundamentals, tight capital, and rising interest rates, the gas you get is going to be impacted by a constant foot riding the brakes. A Q-Max a day is ~ equivalent to Nordstream 2. Longhaul pipelines, with 100's of supply sources, are basically 24/7/365. LNG Shipping, a single source supplier, is impacted by supply disruptions, fog, blocked canals, labor strikes, etc ..., something less than 24/7/365. Current US LNG capacity is ~ 12 BCF/day, LNG capacity under construction ~ 6 BCFD Nordsteam Pipelines 1 &2 gas to Europe total ~ 11 BCFD. Pipelines and midstream assets are fee based asset companies. Production companies are commodity based. Volume/fee guarantees =/= commodity price guarantees? Is Putin's invasion Force Majuere? an "act of god"? O&G price forecasting is a combination of darts and hitting a pinata with a blindfold. The O&G risk profile is marginally different than FAANGs. "record profits this quarter": ... forward looking forecast based on past events will have no bearing on future results? Not wise to commit to a substantial increase in borrowing and capital spending at $10 million/well based on a quarterly result. My starting point is "the trend is your friend", but some how forceast an Enron, or Katrina, or Covid or Putin. No hydraulic fracturing, no pipelines, no facilities >> No production + no transportation + no market = canceling gas growth. The Marcellus-Utica gas production increased ~ 15 BCFD from 2010-2015, and the Permian gas production increased ~ 11 BCFD from 2015-2020, either of which could have met Europe's demand but gas. There was a market demand that could not be satisfied by US production simply because the corresponding growth in infrastructure was prevented by governmental policies. IMO, the productive gas capacity of the US has been "artificially limited" or "knee-capped" by governmental policies.
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Correction of prior post, with a better link: I like this map the best: https://liveuamap.com You can zoom in to the details of cities, roads, etc. The area between Sumy (NW) and Kharkiv (SE) shown on most of the maps as "controlled by Russia" is bound by the highway on the southwest and the Ukraine-Russia border on the northeast. UA appears to control the highway, which is paramount.
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I like this map the best. https://liveuamap.com/en/2022/31-march-destroyed-russian-equipment-after-heavy-battles You can zoom in to the details of cities, roads, etc. The are between Sumy (NW) and Kharkiv (SE) on most of the maps is bound by the highway on the southwest and the Ukraine-Russia border on the northeast. UA control of the highway is the key.
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