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Everything posted by PTINS
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There was a good summary of this point in one of the earlier post. My summary of the good post: Acccept everything that we have seen about Russia's military prowess this week (poor intel, planning & execution, personnel, etc.) Russia used a significant portion of their front line military equipment in Syria, including losing front line aircraft and a using a disproportionate amount of their "smart bombs"/cruise missles, the stand off weapons that can be deployed from a distance. Even in Syria, they went to gravity bombing that exposes aircraft, because the more stand off weapons were not available. In Ukraine, they utilized aircraft to launch cruise missles over the land base platforms because?, they were out of them? Why deploy a plane when you can push a button. This ponts to the Russia budget v. what was actually spent on military hardware. They have the cheap stuff in spades, tanks & people; the high tech weapons that are a $100,000/bullet, not so much.
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My $.02 worth. The accordion effect of a long line of cars stretches out as bits and pieces bunch up and stretch out over time. Growing from 17 miles to 40 miles doesn't necessarily mean more vehicles, probably just more space between the front & the back. Statistcally, a few of them broke down, and everyone that passes them slows down and rubbernecks, if not stopping and offering assistance. The spring thaw and muddy conditions prevents them from going off road and advancing along a front as opposed to a single column. It wouldn't take much to create a bottleneck at the front that creates a long line of stationary targets. Poor Russian training, planning & communications, switched street signs, and a long time for a motivated UA to plan an attack isn't quite as bothersome as some have suggested. The last 5 days have shown numerous pictures of Russian columns destroyed, damaged or abandoned and I expect, and hope, a significant portion of this one will end up looking the same. All the same, I wouldn't mind hearing about some close air support and the ensuing turket shoot.
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IF we are dragged into Ukraine, ok. US involvement would be put a small part of larger EU/NATO effort. If Ukraine airspace is controlled by Ukraine and their many friends, game over for conventional warfare in Ukraine. Who knows what happens then. In any case, no US carriers battle groups are moving any closer than where they are. Conversely, anything involved w/ China/Taiwan would be waterborne and airborne. No reason to put boots on the ground IN China. China is in a posistion to gain immensly from this; would they put it all at risk for Taiwan for a bruised national pride. My father was stationed in Taiwan in '67-68, "still got the shirt."
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Not sure if I qualify; Belarus doesn't have a thousand nukes. Fuck ' em! Hit 'em with a few stealth laser guided bombs and let them figure out where they came from.
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I think everyone will be buying gas and oil from Russia quicker than anyone thinks but eventually at lower volumes. It takes too long to build out infrastructure systems to alleviate near ten shortage and in the long run the world is investing in alternative sources. I agree the Russian oil has to be brought to the market, but it will be complicated. Will the existing sanctions morph and oil $$$ funneled through some entity (UN, Nato, G7, ???) so the $$$ does not go back into the same existing corrupt Russian system? Russia will owe Ukraine and others (reimburse NATO and others for support given to Ukraine) war reparations for this shit show and may end up looking like Ukraine was in the 90's, a dysfunctional, corrupt, 3rd rate power, with thousands of nukes and immense natural resources. What happens to Russia post Putin? Depends on how Putin "leaves"? What then? Same ol' same ol? No Way! Civil War? Power vacumn? I don't think simply replacing Putin will work for the non-billionaires. Cannot have disarray and a free for all like Iraq with Russia's nuclear arsenal, and the fact they are the 2rd largest producer of oil & gas in the world. Blink your eyes and China will be in Western Russia before you can blink again. A strong Russia was bad, a defanged Russia may be worse.
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I was born at Bergstrom AFB. My dad was en jet engine mechanic and we always lived close to the planes, mainly SAC bases & B52's. We always new we lived at prime target area's, if for no other reason, the 12,000 ft runways. I'm heading deep into the Hill Country and chilling in my Avatar.
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Russia is ~ top 3 in oil & gas production, and they lost most of their buyers - Advantage Middle East Putin pushed the Green Movement to riding in the back of the bus on the back bumper - Advantage Middle East EU will replace Russian gas w/ LNG - Qatar only ME country with large LNG export capacity - DIsadvantage Middle East US Shale Development will get unleashed - DIsadvantage Middle East (US politically advantaged over ME) Big question is how much Russian O&G production stays on line. Sanctions will kill maintenance and production will fall. Two sets of buyers, No Sanctions (China, et al) and Sanctions (US, EU, Far East). Oil is zero sum game, China can buy most of Russian oil and existing China purchases go to prior buyers of Russian oil. I expect Russian Gas exports will decrease and be replaced with new production from US, SE Asia, Australia & Qatar. Too much Russian Oil ($Billion/day) for it not to be produced, >> lying, cheating & corruPUTIoN. Will US develop max gas production to support EU, or will US politics favor cheaper gas for US and much more expensive gas for Europe? Will NE US allow more pipelines or just bitch and complain like always? This will be the biggest geo-political event since WWII, and most of America will be Ukraine? What? Huh?
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Sending Med students to battlefied hospitals. Ukraine asking Int'l Red Cross to help send dead Russians home. Captured conscripts calling their parents to tell them their story. Mass protests and arrests all across Russia. I think the people know.
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Stephen F. Austin "recruited" Germans to colonize Texas. Gave them a section of land if they came with a baby-making spouse. They were hard working and resourseful. My belief is they made peace w/ the Comanche's because of those traits, and they knew how to brew beer. Been to Kerrville, Fredricksburg, New Braunfels, Castroville, etc.?
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"... Choosing between 2 fucking bastards..." Funny, I was asked ~ 2015 who I would vote for if it came down to Trump & Hillary, and I said it would never come to that.
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Afghanistan: Our most recent history of sending/leaving a shit pot full of weapons to an unstable country. Didn't turn out so good. Poland is well supplied. We supplement Poland, Poland supplies Ukraine. US not involved in Ukraine.
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I throught one of the bridges UA took out was down there. A little help?
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I agree. Chernobyl led to the dissolution of the Soviet Union, this will start something in Russia that can't be stopped. The moble crematoriums didn't get within a zip code of the casualties. Ukraine asking the Red Cross to help deliver the fatalities back to Russia cannot be hidden from the Russian people. Titantic shift on the horizon.
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Thanks again for all the updates: Ukraine Rocks!!! They have restored my faith in humanity. Reminds me of the Texas I grew up in (perhaps sheltered and naive?). The pics of destroyed Russian vehicles reminds we of the crushed Iraqi columns in Desert storm. Mind boggling that this is Ukraine butt-fucking Russia. Have there even been any tank v. tank engagements yet? Most of the pics are dead vehicles on paved roads. Russia: Lack of air superiority is ??? Exposing and losing heavy transports ..., WTF. Seems to be no command and control in place. Like the Generals said fuck it, we gave the orders Putin wanted, now its his show, fuck Putin. Literally sacrificing the soldiers (mostly unwilling conscripts it seems). Those young Russian boys seem to have no idea they were sent into a war. Sad for their famalies. Fighting in the city streets will end when every Russian is either dead or captured. Overt US leadership has been as expected (some good, some bad), but behind the scenes, looks like a lot of intel is helping Ukriane to know exactly what is coming and get ready for it. Scarry that if Putin isn't removed from the inside, this will get out of hand in a bad way. So many Ukraine heroes. My heart is heavy with what they are going through.
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There are no world class LNG terminals on the East Coast. Mostly NIMBY, but LNG terminals & population centers are not a good mix.
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Yeah we flare about a billion dollars worth of NG in west Texas a year because we have nowhere to put it are stupid. Some companies don't drill & complete until they have gas contracts/pipelines in place. Smart. Most wait until they drill, sell the oil and flare the gas while waiting on contracts/pipelines, and then sell the gas rather than flare. Stupid. Texas Railroad commission allows it. The worst policy in the US energy industry.
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Drill baby, drill!!! The US gas reserves are world class huge. LNG export capacity from the gulf coast is big and growing. Pipeline infrastucture is adequate. Critical path item would probably be building LNG import terminals/pipeline network in Europe. Nordstream 2 pipeline capacity is equal to ~ 50% of existing US LNG export capacity. Unfortunately, Germany bet the farm on Russia gas. IMO, the gas v. solar/wind dynamic changed this week. I think we see a more balanced, "all of the above" approach going forward and Europe weaning themselves of relying on Russia for 24/7/365 energy. Northeast US LNG Export terminals & pipelines make a lot of sense. For Canada, west coast makes sense. Not sure we will ever get there; US more concerned with sunglasses, shoes, & social media.
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Reality is they get 40% of their oil, gas & coal from Russia, and its winter time. We're not talking about $5 gasoline, they already pay twice that, were talking frozen 2021 Texas for three more months. I have been there many times, and as a people, they are the hardest working, most resouceful people I have ever been around. If a cow shits, there's a guy with a shovel to pick it up. Imagine driving across Texas and never seeing a broken down vehicle in the yard or a brush or trash pile in the field. There is a real long fucking line of people who have made poor decisions over the past 20 years. Things will change. I'll take the over on the majority of a huge increase in US LNG production from the US going to Europe. Churchill: “Americans can always be trusted to do the right thing, once all other possibilities have been exhausted.”
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Time for another Chechen uprising?
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Churchill: “Americans can always be trusted to do the right thing, once all other possibilities have been exhausted.” (If you haven't watch "Darkest Hour", do so.) Thank's to you all for the updates on Ukraine fighting for their lives while the rest of the world sends their hopes & prayers. I also am disgusted for many reasons: In the 90's, Ukraine became independent and the third-largest nuclear power in the world, w/ thousands of nuclear arms on its soil from Moscow. In the years that followed, Ukraine made the decision to denuclearize completely in exchange for a security guarantee from the U.S., the U.K. and Russia. One of the three brutally attacks while the other two watch from the best seats in the house. Nuclear non-proliferation is DEAD. Good luck on convincing any body else (Iran, N. Korea) to give up their nuclear programs. "...I have sworn upon the altar of god eternal hostility against every form of tyranny over the mind of man." - Thomas Jefferson My, how the mighty have fallen.
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Thanks for ALL the comments. It’s brutal getting caught up this past few weeks!!! I have liked Michigan since they beat #1 Ohio State in 1969, elevating Texas to #1. I fondly remember the taunts, “Who’s Ohio State?” We have 2005. Michigan is my team of choice this year. They are in the CFP and they have a real good team, 2 things that have little similarity to Texas. They have the luxury of developing projects over 2-3 years. We need players now. I want Corey Redding!!! If not his year, get a 1 yr transfer, and get him next year. Lacrosse: Jim Brown? Never saw him as a young man, but I lived in Jester East in 1974 with Earl & the other UT athletes. I’m betting Jim looked very similar to Earl & Corey as freshman, like full grown ass men. Playing lacrosse didn’t “Make” Jim Brown. Putting 10-15 pounds on Jake Smith ruined him. I’ve looked at a lot of Hudl’s on here for players we’ve chased. Got spoiled looking at Banks, Cam & Neto. Never heard of Burke til tonight. I like that we’ve added ~3,000 lbs of beef on the OL & DL this cycle. My preference is the pick of the litter. Thank you all for adding to the cumulative knowledge of Surly!!!
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See Jake Smith, former Longhorn and former Gatorade player of the year. High School LAX players are the best conditioned athletes at school. All they do is run, and run away, and throw and catch. Cat quick w/ lightning reflexes. Bulk ‘em up for football, and, … , doesn’t translate well. Burke at 275 lbs won’t be quick and won’t have a 46” vertical(?). Move him to TE? Wylie 2.0. Still waiting on him to make a block. I’m pumped as shit the way the last 2 weeks have gone. Getting a late flip from a kid I’ve never heard of, from Michigan that rivals Texas for ineptitude the last 10 years, from a suburban HS football factory, for me, perhaps we should take less of a project.
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Phrasing; Things stay the same for both but that is not to say they have the same thing as each other; Bama is the same and they continue to play for SEC & National Championships and Aggy is the same "Next Year" Roller Coaster that derails and ends up 8&4, again, as they watch others celebrate the championships.
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