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Anastasis

Certifiably Surly
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Posts posted by Anastasis

  1. @tjhooker I am about to pm you my new password to my shaggy account. I believe that I have scrubbed all person info and definitely all PMs from my profile. But if I missed anything dont doxx me bro.  Otherwise, do your worst and get me a banning. Don't change the password though and lock me out. circleoftrustmofo. 

  2. 25 minutes ago, Eskimohorn said:

    Anastasis made another uninformed opinion where both sides are to blame...

     

    Uninformed opinion?  I may be a cynical asshole, and I may sport argue from the extremes, but I am not generally uninformed. The interview is part of his book tour. That is not a both sides observation.

    1 hour ago, jimmyjazz said:

    It's a perfectly cynical response, and not unwarranted, but it's possible that Comey is actually just a dude who has tried hard to manage his career in the right way and things got nuts at the end.  He was faced with a decision between two bad choices . . . there isn't a whole lot he could have done.

    Comey talk not going away, but here's my final thoughts. Comey out thought himself and ultimately boxed himself in.  I agree wiht a lot of Mojo's post. Like everybody else, he assumed that Clinton was going to win, and he felt the urge to go outside of the proper SOPs to puff himself up and to buffer the FBI from the inevitable blow back of the situation created by Bubba and Lynch on the tarmac, and the other aspects circling the Clinton investigation. Further, his actions were influenced by documents planted by Russian intelligence, which the FBI knew to be flawed, but had the potential to call the integrity of the investigation into account. His did his dressing down of Clinton calling her reckless and all but indicating that she was guilty, but that he wasnt going to press charges (not his decision). In month before the election, he sends a letter to congress saying that the investigation is back on, and then just a few days before the election, that it is back off.  The FBI SOPs around types of investigations are there for a very specific reason. Comey circumvented those SOPs because he felt that the appearance of integrity was more important than keeping it between the lines. And in the process, he effected the very thing that the SOPs are in place to prevent, the FBI inappropriately influencing political outcomes. I mean, look, I was popcorning with the rest of us as this was all playing out. But in hindsight you have to admit that he made some extreme mistakes.  Yes, its hindsight. But that's how history will judge. 

    Meanwhile, at the same time that he is coloring down Clinton, he is authorizing FISA captures related to contacts between individuals associated with the Trump campaign and Russia.  Clinton is right to point out that the differential disclosure relating to one FBI investigation but not the other is problematic. But he thought Clinton was going to win and thought that he had to posture to maintain the appearance of integrity and distance once she was in office. Maybe if Comey had played Both Sides (TM) the same he wouldn't have created this situation.  As far as his firing goes, Trumps mistake was not to fire him on day 1, like Clinton would have. /Comeytalk

    • Like 3
  3.  

    You’re too smart to not know EXACTLY why you felt the need to point that out. You know saying “fake news!” is embarrassing so instead you’re more subtly trying to discredit the messenger in anticipation of the message.

     

    It’s pathetic.

     

    Ok, if you say so. My quip about the book sales was an honest reaction that I had when the ABC teaser splashed a cover of his book as they wrapped it up. Hard to buy that kind of promotion. And at least one other poster had the same reaction.

  4. 1 hour ago, Lurch said:

     


    You’re playing defense and dismissing it before it even airs. It’s not irksome. It’s sad.

     

    I didn't dismiss anything. I said that it would boost book sales.  Which is the purpose. Comey starting his book tour. 

  5. Just now, jimmyjazz said:

    I'm not saying there was no effect, but I am saying that we don't have a good measure of how much Hillary had self-fucked her own campaign, nor how much meddling might have occurred in certain states.

    I am taking issue with the absolute nature of the statement.

    That's fine, but don't tell me that there is no basis for the claim. There is a basis for the claim, coming from multiple perspectives including the candidate herself. Both objective data driven basis and subjective assessments of people who were closely involved and those closely observing. But yes, I agree with Mojo, the candidate herself really bears the single most responsibility for her loss. I will concede that Hillary self-fucking her campaign was the single most influential factor.  After her, it was probably Comey's actions. 

  6. 7 minutes ago, jimmyjazz said:

    Yeah, and there are a long list of people who think the election was fucked long before that action.  So no, you have no legitimate basis for your statement.  It's an opinion.  In my opinion, it's likely wrong.

    You want something more objective and data driven to support that conclusion?  OK.

     

    https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/the-comey-letter-probably-cost-clinton-the-election/

     

    Quote

    The letter isn’t the only reason that Clinton lost. It does not excuse every decision the Clinton campaign made. Other factors may have played a larger role in her defeat, and it’s up to Democrats to examine those as they choose their strategy for 2018 and 2020.

    But the effect of those factors — say, Clinton’s decision to give paid speeches to investment banks, or her messaging on pocket-book issues, or the role that her gender played in the campaign — is hard to measure. 

    The impact of Comey’s letter is comparatively easy to quantify, by contrast. At a maximum, it might have shifted the race by 3 or 4 percentage points toward Donald Trump, swinging Michigan, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin and Florida to him, perhaps along with North Carolina and Arizona. At a minimum, its impact might have been only a percentage point or so. Still, because Clinton lost Michigan, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin by less than 1 point, the letter was probably enough to change the outcome of the Electoral College.

    ...

    The Comey letter almost immediately sank Clinton’s polls

    News of the Comey letter broke just before 1 p.m. Eastern time on Oct. 28, when Utah. Rep Jason Chaffetz tweeted about it, noting the existence of the letter and stating (incorrectly, it turned out2) that the case into Clinton’s private email server had been “reopened.” The story exploded onto the scene; Fox News was treating Chaffetz’s tweet as “breaking news” within 15 minutes, and the FBI story dominated headlines everywhere within roughly an hour. In an element of tabloid flair, it was soon reported that the emails in question were found on a computer owned by Anthony Weiner, the former congressman, as part of an investigation into whether he’d sent sexually explicit messages to teenage girls.

    Few news organizations gave the story more velocity than The New York Times. On the morning of Oct. 29, Comey stories stretched across the print edition’s front page, accompanied by a photo showing Clinton and her aide Huma Abedin, Weiner’s estranged wife. Although some of these articles contained detailed reporting, the headlines focused on speculation about the implications for the horse race — “NEW EMAILS JOLT CLINTON CAMPAIGN IN RACE’S LAST DAYS.”

    That Comey’s decision to issue the letter had been so unorthodox and that the contents of the letter were so ambiguous helped fuel the story. The Times’s print lead on Oct. 30 was about Clinton’s pushback against Comey, and a story it published two days later explained that Comey had broken with precedent in releasing the letter. It covered all sides of the controversy. But the controversy was an unwelcome one for Clinton, since it involved voters seeing words like “Clinton,” “email,” “FBI” and “investigation” together in headlines. Within a day of the Comey letter, Google searches for “Clinton FBI” had increased 50-fold and searches for “Clinton email” almost tenfold.

    Clinton’s standing in the polls fell sharply. She’d led Trump by 5.9 percentage points in FiveThirtyEight’s popular vote projection at 12:01 a.m. on Oct. 28. A week later — after polls had time to fully reflect the letter — her lead had declined to 2.9 percentage points. That is to say, there was a shift of about 3 percentage points against Clinton. And it was an especially pernicious shift for Clinton because (at least according to the FiveThirtyEight model) Clinton was underperforming in swing states as compared to the country overall. In the average swing state,3 Clinton’s lead declined from 4.5 percentage points at the start of Oct. 28 to just 1.7 percentage points on Nov. 4. If the polls were off even slightly, Trump could be headed to the White House.

     

    silver-essay-10-0501.png?w=575&h=474&qua

     

    Even a small Comey effect could have cost Clinton the 270 electoral votes she needed to win
      ADJUSTED VOTE MARGIN  
      CLINTON VOTE MARGIN SMALL COMEY EFFECT* BIG COMEY EFFECT* CLINTON’S ELECTORAL VOTES HAD SHE WON
    Michigan -0.2 +0.8 +3.8 248
    Pennsylvania -0.7 +0.3 +3.3 268
    Wisconsin -0.8 +0.2 +3.2 278
    Florida -1.2 -0.2 +2.8 307
    Nebraska’s 2nd C.D. -2.1 -1.1 +1.9 308
    Arizona -3.5 -2.5 +0.5 319
    North Carolina -3.7 -2.7 +0.3 334
    Georgia -5.1 -4.1 -1.1 350
    Ohio -8.1 -7.1 -4.1 368
    Texas -9.0 -8.0 -5.0 406
    Iowa -9.4 -8.4 -5.4 412

    *Adjusting for a small Comey effect adds 1 percentage point to Clinton’s vote margin. A big effect adds 4. Hypothetical scenario starts with the 232 electoral votes Clinton actually won, ignoring faithless electors.

  7. 16 minutes ago, cactusflinthead said:

    Fescue is our best deep shade turf. It is going to take a few rounds of reseeding to get a dense stand. 

    Some of the zoysia cultivars can withstand shade. They can get thin in a very deep shady spot. 

    There's also the fuck it and mulch option. 

    Yeah, I am close "fuck it, put some stone or rock down" conclusion. 

  8. 2 minutes ago, jimmyjazz said:

    There is absolutely no basis for your statement that Comey had the single most influential role in the election.  None whatsoever.

    Uh, there are a long list of pundits and campaign staffers and even Clinton herself that have arrived at that conclusion. 

     

  9. 59 minutes ago, wildcat09 said:

    It is annoying that Comey will probably come out of this thing looking good, when he is probably more responsible than any other individual in America for Trump's election. It wasn't his intention, and I think he was trying to do what he saw as the closest-to-right thing in a bad situation, but he's going to publicly skate in the court of public opinion and he shouldn't.

    I don't understand the people white knighting Comey.  He shit the bed in multiple ways, and injected himself wholly into the very center of the political process. He was in a tough spot, but he made some horribad decisions.  His ongoing virtue signalling is a so fucking transparent, but a sizable portion lap that shit up because he is going to say some mean things about Trump. OK. Comey, not Russia, had the single most influential role in tilting the election from Clinton to Trump.  But hey, these books aren't gonna sell themselves. 

  10. 5 minutes ago, HenryJames said:

    I'm more likely to buy Trump products and stay in Trump properties!

    Just wait until they launch the Trump Trailer Park and Bingo Hall. More targeted to his core demographic. 

    • Like 1
  11. 1 hour ago, Mapache said:

    ABC: Comey compares Trump to mob boss

    Source: Axios

    A source present at the taping says James Comey's interview with ABC's George Stephanopoulos, airing Sunday at 10 p.m. as a "20/20" special, is "going to shock the president and his team." 

    The source said Comey's comments, in his first interview since being fired by President Trump last May, will generate headlines and "certainly add more meat to the charges swirling around Trump." 

    In an ABC promo, Stephanopoulos says Comey compared Trump to a mob boss. 

    According to the source: 
    - The Comey interview left people in the room stunned — he told George things that he’s never said before. 
    - Some described the experience as surreal. The question will be how to fit it all into a one-hour show. 
    - Comey answered every question. 
    - If anyone wonders if Comey will go there, he goes there. 

    Should provide a good boost for the book sales. 

  12. Privileged: 

    Email from Cohen to Trump dated whatever: "Donald, I think it makes strategic sense to respond favorably to Class Counsel's offer of settlement in the Trump University matter as their offer is in the same ballpark as actual damages.  We should go to mediation soon and determine if we can get this deal done."

     

    Not Privileged:

    Email from Cohen to Trump dated whatever: "Donald, I talked to Felix Sater today and Aras Agalarov and they confirmed that per your request, they will talk to Putin about you easing sanctions after the election if he loosened his grip on the St. Petersburg development this week."

    It has no bearing on your description, but just gonna point out that trump reportedly does not use email. Tweets are his primary form of electronic communication.

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